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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A let down
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020

Amidst criticisms that the government’s lockdown response, the world’s strictest and longest, has flattened the economy but not covid-19, many tuned in to President Rodrigo Duterte’s fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA) to hear his roadmap for recovery. Sadly, the speech was not attuned to th...

The MDB and DEM leave the Centrão
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Today, the MDB and DEM parties announced their departure from the Centrão, a group made up of the PL, PP, PSD, SD, PROS, PTB and Avante. The Centrão is the largest group of parties in the Lower House and is led by Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), considered an informal leader of the Jair Bolsonaro gov...

Economics: A Mexican crisis like no other
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Although uncertainty has been the one constant since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, we update the odds of some scenarios given the latest economic data, even as questions surround the pandemic’s future. In the International Monetary Fund’s most recent assessment of the global economic si...

Uzbekistan prolongs quarantine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020

On July 27 Uzbekistan announced that coronavirus quarantine measures will last until August 15. They had been due to expire on July 31. Significantly, this means that quarantine will last through a key Islamic festival. The country is 95% Muslim. On August 1-2 all public transport will be banned....

Politics: Broader meaning of the INE confirmations
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2020

When Congress confirmed, in an almost unanimous vote, four new members of the governing body of the National Electoral Institute (INE), it sent a powerful message as to the autonomy and independence of the electoral authority ahead of the 2021 midterms, the most extensive electoral event in Mexic...

Bolsonaro regains popularity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Discussions resume on Tax Reform in the Joint Congressional Committee. The agenda in the Senate is focused on provisional measures. The Lower House may vote on aid to companies in the public transportation sector. Two important laws will be sanctioned by President Bolsonaro: 1) the law that chang...

The Fiscal Challenge: Reforms, Risks and Monetary Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

The Central Bank has been expressing concern regarding the next monetary policy movements. Might there be an effective lower bound (ELB) for the basic interest rate in Brazil, as is the case of other emerging countries? Will the path of the primary results and gross debt alter the risk premiums a...

Economic pain amid the pandemic
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jul 2020

As Covid-19 infections spread exponentially in Venezuela, the government is focusing its economic response on Homeland System cash transfers. Although we expect these transfers to surge in real terms over the second half of 2020, we see them as woefully inadequate, and real household income is st...

Signs of stability in domestic demand in July, despite restrictions
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Initial economic indicators for July point to some stability in domestic demand. Unemployment reached 11.8% in the last two weeks of June, but most likely drifted somewhat higher in July given the increasing restrictions. Macro fundamentals and flows have supported a stronger shekel, despite aggr...

Russia: The key rate cut, but CBR plans may become muted
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020 · 1 response

he Russian Central Bank cut the key policy rate by 25 bp to 4.25% and released its updated macroeconomic forecast along with some thoughts and interpretations of the ongoing developments. Generally, this updated forecast doesn’t differ much from GKEM Analytica's forecast published last week. Howe...

Strong rebound, even without a major stimulus
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2020

GDP rose 3.2% y/y in Q2 -- a remarkable performance amid global pandemic. In June, industrial output was up 4.8% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from May, though has still not reached the pre-pandemic level, and was down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment, mostly driven by state investment, was up 5.6% y/y, u...

Signs of stability in domestic demand in July, despite increasing restriction
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 27.7.20:Recent data suggests that domestic demand has stabilized recently:Credit card purchases increased by 3.5% in July (through 21.7).The Google Mobility Index points to some stability in the past week.Unemployment declined to 11.8% in the last two wee...

Russian interest rate lower ever
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its key rate to 4.25%. The aim is to revivify the economy. This is the third interest cut in a row since April 2020. Coronavirus has been the major factor in prompting the widely expected move. The cut has been by 25 basis points which is less than ...

Belarus opposition politician runs away to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 Valery Tsepkalo fled to Moscow. He wanted to challenge the incumbent Lukashenka for the presidency. But Tspekalo was barred from running. He has left the country citing worries about the safety of his wife and children. Others who tried to run for the presidency have been sent to jail....

US accuses Russia of arming mercenaries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

On July 24 the US said that Russia has breached the UN arms embargo on Libya. The United States published satellite photos which purported to show Russian manufactured armaments in the hands of Wagner Group mercenaries in Libya. There were photos of Ilyushin Russian transport planes unloading suc...

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