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Gross Debt or Net Debt: Which Best Measures the Fiscal Imbalance?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jun 2020

The gross debt of the general government, in the Brazilian concept, is the sum of the stock of bonds sold by the Treasury and the repo transactions contracted by the Central Bank. In turn, the net debt, in the only definition that makes economic sense, is the gross debt minus international reserv...

Mansueto’s exit and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2020

A busy week in Brasília: Congress analyzes presidential vetoes. The Senate may vote on MP 936, on salary and working-hour reductions. The Federal Supreme Court resumes discussion of the "Fake News" inquiry. In the economy, we highlight the Copom meeting on interest rates. Mansueto Almeida’s exit ...

Inflation surprises sharply on the downside in May
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jun 2020

The CPI in May declined by 0.3% m/m and fell to -1.6 y/y (from -0.6% in April). The market was expecting a positive index of 0.1% m/m. Core inflation (excluding energy and fresh produce) declined by 0.5% y/y (yes, negative) from +0.2% last month. The items which surprised on the downside include ...

Chile Covid Response: Mañalich Out, Stimulus Agreement In.
CHILE · In Brief · 15 Jun 2020

After a fairly reasonable start, Chile is now one of the world’s most affected countries by Covid-19. Chile is now number three in the world for new cases of coronavirus, and number six in cases per million. The mishandling of the pandemic has now cost Health Minister Jamie Mañalich his job. Pres...

Germany lobbies for pipeline from Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jun 2020

On June 14 Germany lodged an official protest against the US bill to widen sanctions against Nord Stream 2. This is a pipeline from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany. The US already has sanctions against the USD 11 billion pipeline. The proposal is to extend them. Senator Ted Cruz is one of ...

External fundamentals continue to support a strong shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Jun 2020

The current account surplus increased in Q120, supportive of a strong shekel. Credit card purchases declined in the first week of June, following strong growth in May. Consumer confidence improved in May, supportive of household demand. We expect inflation in May to reach 0.1% m/m and possibly ze...

Politics: AMLO increasing polarization
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2020

The political environment continues to deteriorate as the government’s coronavirus “strategy” has failed to stem the pandemic in Mexico, and its economic policies have been equally unsuccessful in mitigating the effects of a deepening recession. But one thing everyone can be certain of is that th...

South Africa’s policy challenges continue: the mining sector and a new strategy for state-owned enterprises
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Jun 2020 · 1 response

The mining sector made up 9% of the South African economy during Q4 2019 and 2.6% of the country’s employment share of the economy during the same period. Despite making a relatively smaller share of the economy compared to sectors such as finance, which makes up 20% of the economy (Q4 2019), or ...

Economics: Labor market data outlook
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic has taken a terrible toll not only on employment but also in the means to precisely record it. The most comprehensive source of information on the Mexican labor market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), a nationwide face-to-face poll conducted monthl...

Welcome to a scorching hot summer
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2020

Rising daily corona cases even dismayed the Hero of the Day, Health Minister Dr. Fahrettin Koca, as easing the last of COVID-19 restrictions by end-June appears very likely to invite a second wave. In US-Turkey relations, there is a tiny bit of a trouble, called Mr. Metin Topuz, but both sides...

External fundamentals continue to support a strong shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2020

Highlights of macro weekly wrap up :The current account surplus reached 3.8bn USD in Q120 following 3.5bn in Q419 and 3.1bn in Q119. The service account surplus increased by 0.6bn and the trade deficit declined by 0.6bn on initial gas exports and weak imports. The net FDI increase to 2.9bn from 2...

Polls show 48% disapprove of the government; 28% approve
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2020

Two polls released in the last 48 hours – DataPoder360 and XP/Ipespe – show a similar scenario regarding the popularity of the Jair Bolsonaro government. In the DataPoder360 poll, the government´s negative (bad/very bad) rating reached 47%. On the other hand, the positive evaluation (great/goo...

​GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends, Saudi COVID resurgence, Oman bailout talks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ extends cuts for a month, and laggards promise compensation. * Saudi faces a second coronavirus wave, but it hasn’t clearly emerged elsewhere yet. * Fitch increased...

Outlook for 2020 inflation depends on epidemic
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jun 2020

Consumer price inflation sped up slightly to 53 percent month on month in May from 50 percent in April. Year-on-year inflation accelerated to 5,200 percent. May inflation was driven by a spike in dollar prices in April (+104 percent) that was felt with a lag in May, the rise in black market ga...

The failure of China’s SME program
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Jun 2020

The success of China’s stimulus measures will depend on the ability of the financial system to deliver capital to the most profitable – and highest employing – sectors. Is China successful in this? The anecdotal information suggests that loans to small businesses don’t always reach the best custo...

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