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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Duque’s epiphany
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Dec 2019

The fate of the government’s tax reform proposal was, up until the beginning of the last week of November, a big unknown. It seems however, the worst part is over. During an infrastructure congress in Cartagena on November 21st, Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla spoke optimistically about...

China's understated global loans
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Dec 2019

Three economists in July published a paper at the Kiel Institute in Germany arguing that China’s international lending is understated by a significant margin. The authors, Carmen Reinhart, Sebastian Horn, and Christoph Trebesch, arrive at a figure of US$4.6 trillion, which includes holdings of so...

Manila’s water problems
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On Tuesday, Manila’s business elites found themselves at the receiving end of President Duterte’s latest tirade. The cause? A ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Singapore for government to pay Manila Water, one of the metropolis’s two water concessionaires, P7.39 billion (~$145 milli...

South Africa’s Q3 current account deficit narrows on the back of improved terms of trade
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2019

Today the South African Reserve Bank released the latest current account data that shows the country’s current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter of 2019 - falling from R208.7 billion during the second quarter of 2019 to R190.3 billion in the third quarter, a narrowing of R18.3 billion...

Russo-Chinese pipeline flows
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On December 2 the first gas flowed through the Power of Siberia Pipeline. This supplies LNG from Russia to China. The 3 000 km long pipeline is operated by Gazprom the Russian State gas company. The China National Petroleum Corporation is the partner on the Chinese side. In 2014 the two countries...

Russia-Bulgaria diplomatic row
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2019

On December 5 Russia kicked out a Bulgarian diplomat in reprisal for Bulgaria refusing a visa to a Russian defense attache. In October Bulgaria expelled a Russian diplomat for 'activities incompatible with diplomatic status' which is a euphemism for spying. Russia is Bulgaria's main energy suppli...

Access to EU funds: bad news, bad news and some good news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2019

Talks on the EU budget for 2021-2027 are moving forward and are approaching the last stage on the road towards a political agreement. Most lately, the Finnish presidency's compromise proposal, the outlines of which were already released a few weeks ago, took a concrete form. This contained the fo...

Ukraine-IMF talks stalling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2019

Ukraine has a USD 3.9 billion standby arrangement with the IMF. This has almost run to the end of its 14 month lifespan. Ukraine desperately needs another IMF deal. There does not seem to be any other party willing to bankroll Ukraine. Talks are foundering on the issue of PrivatBank and the chanc...

Russia sells arms to Gabon
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2019

On November 20 the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had sold weapons to Gabon. This is the first ever arms sale by Russia to Gabon. The African nation is a former French colony. The weapons sold were small arms and their purpose is supposedly to guard national parks. The country is p...

Vizcarra governing unhindered
PERU · Report · 03 Dec 2019

Elections for a new Congress are set for January 26th, after President Martín Vizcarra’s dissolution of Congress in September. Though the government is in the interim empowered to issue executive orders that have the same validity as law, we doubt it will enact any significant reforms this way, b...

South Africa’s Q3 GDP surprises on the downside, contracting amid expectations of low but positive growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2019

The previous quarterly GDP data by Stats SA revealed that South Africa had avoided a second consecutive H1 technical recession, as real GDP growth recovered by 3.2% q/q (upwardly adjusted from 3.1%) in the second quarter, from a contraction of 3.1% q/q during the first quarter of 2019. However, t...

2020 elections may bring power shift
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 03 Dec 2019

The ruling PLD is headed toward a loss in the May 2020 elections, while presidential challenger Luis Abinader, the PRM and their allies seem well placed to win. These are the findings of two recent unpublished surveys, whose results were leaked to the media. These polls show significant voter pre...

Inflation: Up on base effect, sticky underneath
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2019

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in November coming in at 0.4%, m/m, mainly on the back of better than expected food prices (according to our forecast), more specifically unprocessed food prices. As expected though, the 12-month CPI inflation increased to a double-digit 10.6%, y...

The government is a passenger on the congressional train and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro takes part in the Mercusur Summit in Rio Grande do Sul. In the Lower House, we highlight the vote on the new regulatory framework for sanitation. Congress analyzes presidential vetoes, including the veto that would allow for the return of free party advertising. The Feder...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2019

Despite a sometimes half-baked agenda, Brazilian society has been showing signs of maturity, vigor and appreciation for democracy. Siren calls from the extremes of the political spectrum do not entrance the majority, who continue to hope for a united and prosperous country. The recovery of consum...

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