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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The shekel will react next week to the BoI macro forecast
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Jul 2018

Recent PC indicators points to some softening of PC demand, which supports weak inflationary pressure, although service prices and housing rentals are expect to contribute to inflation. The market has started to price in a rate hike later this year (we think Q119) but much will depend on the dire...

How long will the rebound last?
PERU · Forecast · 02 Jul 2018

We expect growth in Q2 to be very strong, at just below 5% y/y, rising from the low base left by the crippling effects of El Niño and by the corruption scandals surrounding Brazilian construction firms last year. Domestic demand is also recovering powerfully, driven particularly by a surge in min...

It's official. AMLO wins with wide margin
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Jul 2018 · 1 response

Lorenzo Córdova, chair of the National Electoral institute announced in an official message tonight, at 11 pm, the results of the institute's quick count exercise. The results are: AMLO: 53%-53.8%Ricardo Anaya: 22.1-22.8%José Antonio Meade: 15.7%-16.3%Jaime Rodríguez: 5.3-5.5%There was a very pos...

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: Mexico's future president
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Jul 2018

According to GEA-ISA's exit poll, Andrés Manuel López Obrador will become Mexico's next president with a wide margin over its closest competitors. Our data, based on more than 3,500 interviews in over 100 voting booths show the following results: AMLO: 48.6% (min 46.9%-max 50.2%)Ricardo Anaya: 27...

First comments on the Mexican elections
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Jul 2018

July 1st was the biggest election in Mexico history. So far, electoral booths have closed in almost every state in the country. However, we will not be able to send any electoral data on the presidential race until 8pm tonight, bacanes booths will close by then in every state and the Mexican law ...

Post-election reflections
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jul 2018

Contrary to the gloom and doom permeating the international press, our politics author greets last Sunday’s elections as a significant victory for the Turkish democracy, with his long-term optimism significantly elevated by the vibrancy of the campaign and the intangible victories scored by the o...

GDP slows in Q1 even before the big construction strike
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jun 2018

Real GDP expanded 4.2% in Q1, the lowest quarterly growth in the past three years. Activity was driven by fisheries, 30.2%; general government (12.6%), transportation and communications (5.2%), construction (4.9%), social services and private health (4.8%), financial intermediation (4.1%) and com...

COSTA RICA: New government’s fiscal stance off to a promising start
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Costa Rica’s new Carlos Alvarado administration appears to be tackling the fiscal problem seriously, unlike its predecessor, which took an ambivalent stance. In fact, in response to the request of the new Congress, Finance Minister Rocio Aguilar on May 30th-31st addressed several topics sensitive...

Final pre-election snapshot
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2018

The final GEA-ISA national poll of registered voters ahead of Sunday’s presidential election shows Andrés Manuel López Obrador retaining his comfortable lead, with the support of 35% of those surveyed and a wide lead over all his competitors, while the battle for second place has tightened consid...

Breaking a potentially vicious feedback loop
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2018

On Monday, the benchmark Philippine stock index fell below 7,000 into what stock analysts call bear territory. This transpired after a fortnight of turmoil in emerging markets precipitated by an escalation of the face off between the US and China on the trade front. Alongside market read of a mor...

Can China sustain RMB depreciation?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Jun 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Beijing must be seen as having the ability to respond effectively and powerfully to American threats of trade intervention. RMB depreciation is one of the few responses it has, which is probably why the RMB has dropped 4 percent against the US dollar...

MNB: No problem, no comment, we have said everything we wanted
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jun 2018

Today's trading did not bring about any relief for the forint, which slid a bit further down, to EURHUF 328.5-329. Responding to a question, the government's spokesman, state secretary Zoltán Kovács said that there may be investor speculation at play against the forint.The MNB apparently did not ...

The forint was never this weak historically
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jun 2018

The EURHUF went to 328.18 at one point in late trading today, which was a historic record in terms of forint weakness. Later it settled down between EURHUF 327.50-328, meaning it failed to recover by any significant amount within the day.All this can be traced back to some euro weakness against t...

A clear recovery in firm data, less so in other indicators
INDIA · Report · 27 Jun 2018

What is the state of business cycle conditions in India today? The net sales of large firms show a clear recovery. There is strong export buoyancy and early signs of easing of the balance sheet crisis in non-financial firms. But the picture is not good for investment and profitability. There is ...

Transiting from depression to euphoria
CHILE · Report · 25 Jun 2018

The Central Bank’s June Monetary Policy Report was more hawkish than that of March. The Central Bank is preparing the market for the next cycle of monetary policy tightening, which should start before year-end. Perhaps the most relevant point was a downplay of the risk of a non-convergence rate t...

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