Country Insights

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Toward the Handover
INDONESIA - Report 26 Sep 2014
Executive Summary Having been confirmed by the Constitutional Court, President-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his running mate moved relatively quickly to prepare for the political transition. The Transition Team, headed by former Minister of Trade, Rini Soewandi, has finalized the structure o...

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A Bumpy Road until Elections
ARGENTINA - Report 26 Sep 2014
The government is facing a complex economic moment. Privately measured activity indicators reflect that Argentina is once more suffering in its history of stagflation. Private consumption is affected by the decline in total wage income and uncertainty regarding key economic variables. Despite the...

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Guatemala: Short Term Stability, Long Term Challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 25 Sep 2014
In the short term, the outlook for Guatemala is stable. Growth is expected to be 3.5%-4% in 2014-2015, and inflation is projected to come in within the Bank of Guatemala’s 4.0% ± 1 p.p. target band. Exchange markets are not likely to be volatile, and fiscal and external imbalances will be fairly ...

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Inflation Outlook in Limbo
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 25 Sep 2014
The increase in the core inflation rate – from 5.3 to 5.8% between January and August 2014 – suggests that so-called “second round effects” of inflation, i.e. past inflation causing an inflationary spiral, are surfacing steadily. At the same time, the headline inflation rate has been in breach of...

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MPC: No Surprises This Month
TURKEY - Report 25 Sep 2014
This time, in line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged (see graph). This is not too surprising, because of a rather worrisome inflation outlook and the jittery external/currency environment. As for the content of the statement, the Bank’s take on inflation dynamics ...

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Public Security: More Money, More Work
MEXICO - Report 24 Sep 2014
The spending budget proposal for 2015 falls short when it comes to matters of public security. Despite an ambitious plan to overhaul the justice system and the need to strengthen the role state and local security forces play in the fight against crime, the public security budget for next year rem...

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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 24 Sep 2014
CNT and Ibope Polls Show a Close Race; Vox Populi Presents a Scenario Favoring Dilma The three voting intention polls released yesterday present a similar electoral scenario for the first round.In the second round, CNT and Ibope show a technical tie between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (P...

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The Labor Market According to the PNAD
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 23 Sep 2014
Executive Summary The country remains mired in a situation of low growth and high inflation, even with contention of important administered prices and a current account deficit of US$ 80 billion over the preceding 12 months. In parallel, there are contrary signs from the labor market: unemploy...

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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 23 Sep 2014
CNT/MDA: Dilma Increases Lead over Marina in 1st Round; Technical Tie in the 2nd Round The Vox Populi poll released yesterday presents a scenario in which Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (PSB) are tied, the same scenario registered by polls last week.The president leads in the 1st round.The ...

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Turkey’s ISIS challenge doubles overnight
TURKEY - Report 23 Sep 2014
Obama’s decision to strike ISIS targets in Syria, in a series of attacks joined by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and United Arab Emirates brought temporary relief to financial markets and more importantly to the hard-pressed Kurdish militias fighting to defend the city of Kobani.Yet, there are too...

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Important announcement from the Economy Minister on policy reforms prepared for 2015
HUNGARY - In Brief 23 Sep 2014
Fact: Earlier today, Economy Minister Varga spoke at a conference in Budapest. He made an important announcement on upcoming fiscal and other policy reports, which he expected to be part of the 2015 budget. This statement made the forint strengthen moderately in early trade, to EURHUF 310-311, bu...

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Political Insights: Week of September 22
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 22 Sep 2014
There are two weeks left until the first round of the elections (10/5).The candidates for president, governor and senator will intensify activities in this final leg of the campaign.In the coming days, six new presidential voting intention polls will be released. Presidential Election: Main Indic...

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Inflation and the Exchange Rate Movements: What Are the Trends?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 22 Sep 2014
The IPCA-15 in September came as a surprise at 0.39%, a slightly higher rate than the consensus projections and greater than the IPCA for August, which was 0.25%. This brought the IPCA over the past 12 months to 6.62%, versus 6.5% in July, with tradables accumulating an increase of 6.9% in 12 mon...

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Weekly Tracker: September 21-27
TURKEY - Report 21 Sep 2014
Executive Summary The nation sighed a collective breath of relief, as ISIS released the 49 hostages it had captured in the raid on the consular building of Mosul in June.Yet, the ending of the hostage crisis would give berth to Western allies to increase pressure on Ankara to play a bigger role i...

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Pontius Pilatus’ Court of Appeals
ARGENTINA - In Brief 20 Sep 2014
The US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit refrained from judging on the appeal presented by Citigroup. The appeal aimed to determine whether judge Griesa’s rulings have the scope to prohibit its local branch (an independent subsidiary, established under Argentine law) to fulfill its obligati...