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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Another interest rate cut
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Sep 2019

At its recent Monetary Policy Meeting in September 2019 the Indonesian Central Bank decided to slash the benchmark interest rate once again by 25 basis points, to 5.25%. This is the third interest rate cut in the past three consecutive months. The interest rate cut was driven by the softening of ...

Uncertainty over Russian inflation forecast
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Sep 2019

On September 25 the Russian draft budget was published online. The President held meetings concerning the draft budget. The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts that inflation will be 3.6% by the end of 2019 and 3% by the end of 2020. However, the Bank of Russia predicts inflation will be b...

Regime makes one deal to avoid another
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Sep 2019

The Maduro regime responded to the opposition’s proposal in Norway-mediated talks with weeks of silence and has now announced a separate “partial deal” with a set of minority parties in a “national dialogue for stability and peace”. The opposition’s proposal had aimed to create the conditions ...

Credit and industrial profits – Will shadow banking help?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Sep 2019

China is using many different methods for stimulating the economy, including tax cuts, monetary policy through lower interest rates (RRR and other methods), and targeted lending. However, one of the problems the country faces is the declining effectiveness of the credit it issues through various ...

IMF mission leaves: clarity on Privatbank requested
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Sep 2019

Yesterday, on Sept 26 the IMF mission concluded its technical visit to Ukraine. Media immediately claimed that a ‘no-agreement’ leave is a bad sign. Today there was released a statement, which mentions “…the importance of central bank independence and safeguarding financial stability, as well as ...

Monetary Board cuts policy rates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Sep 2019

For the third time this year, the Monetary Board reduced policy rates by 25bp, bringing its key overnight borrowing rate to 4%. The rate cut has been widely anticipated even before the US Fed’s own easing action last week. Hence, analysts are now wondering whether this will be the last rate cut f...

​Overview of some key issues in the GCC (conference call summary)
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2019

This provides a brief overview of how we view the GCC region and some of the key issues in each country, extracted from our conference call, although this is not intended to be anywhere near comprehensive. Oman’s leadership vacuum is hindering reform efforts, especially fiscal ones, but gas outpu...

​Abqaiq attack reveals vulnerabilities which could reduce conflict risks (conference call summary)
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2019

Production seems to have been restored to pre-attack levels more quickly than expected. However, we remain sceptical about the pledge to restore full theoretical capacity back to pre-attack levels by the end of November. Was Iran involved? Probably in some capacity, although important question ma...

Russian Federal budget surplus is not as big as originally thought
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2019

On September 20 Russia's draft federal budget for 2020-22 was approved. The budget surplus will be lower than was previously believed. GDP is forecast to grow to 1.7% in 2019 but only 0.2% in 2022.Government spending will be USD 305 billion in 2020. That is about 17.3% of GDP. Spending is set to ...

Rouhani doubles-down on no talks under sanctions position
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 25 Sep 2019

In his address at the UN General Assembly, the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, very firmly reiterated his position that Iran would not negotiate with the US while sanctions remain in place (video - substantive comments start around minute 5). The gist of his argument was that there is no point...

Conference call on oil, politics & debt in the Gulf States - including impact of attacks on Saudi
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2019

The recent attack on Saudi Arabia's oilfields brings into focus the risks and opportunities of investment in the GCC countries. With the inclusion of all six GCC countries in the JP Morgan EMBI Indices and four of them in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, there is surging interest in the region, a...

Russia might be banned from all international sport
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

The World Anti Doping Agency (WADA) announced on 23 September that it is considering banning Russia from all international sports competitions. This would also entail forbidding Russia from hosting international sports events. WADA declared that there were many inconsistencies in laboratory data ...

Internal American row puts Ukraine in a tricky position
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

Democrats in the US have accused Trump of asking the Ukrainians to pass on embarrassing information about Joe Biden. Former Vice-President Biden is the front runner for the Democratic Party's nomination in 2020. President Trump confirmed that he asked Ukraine to disclose damaging material on Bide...

Financial market opens further
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2019

Growth is slowing further. In August, industrial output was up 4.4% y/y, down 0.4 pps from July, while investment rose 4.2% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q2. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.5% y/y in August, down 1.1 pps from Q2. The indicator’s real growth rate was 5.6% y/y, down ...

In search of funds
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

Minister Martinez announced two new international issues with maturities of 5 and 10 years (March 2025 and March 2030), respectively to complete financing for 2019. Our previous estimate for international financing was around $1.0 to $1.2 billion, but if two issues are being considered, then $1.5...

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