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Potential convergence of external and domestic risks, steady economic and political deterioration
MEXICO · Presentation · 25 Nov 2019

This presentation provides a thorough summary of the political and economic challenges facing Mexico in the medium term. In 2020, economic risks may converge, creating difficult conditions for Mexico. The biggest economic challenges for Mexico in 2020 are US growth and the government reaction fun...

A gradual slope
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Nov 2019

Recent macroeconomic data show encouraging signs of normalizing domestic activity. Inflation and interest rates have dropped, public sector outlays appear to be getting back on track and work on reform bills that have held back investments are proceeding apace. We forecast a gradual uphill for GD...

Rates remain on hold today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

Policy rates remained stable but the loosening bias was maintained. The summarizing statement was clear:"it will be necessary to leave the interest rate at its current level for a prolonged period or to reduce it in order to support a process at the end of which inflation will stabilize around th...

Gazprom sells USD 3 billion shares
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2019

On November 22 Gazprom sold USD 3 billion in shares to an unknown buyer. Gazprom sold 3.6% of its shares. CEO Alexey Miller announced earlier in 2019 that there was a share offloading scheme. There was a 7 hour window on November 21 when people could bid for shares and almost 500 people applied. ...

​Gulf weekly: Kuwait gets new PM and Aramco IPO cut in half
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Nov 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Having scaled back its IPO, Aramco cancelled its international roadshow. * Kuwait’s emir sacked two feuding ministers (including his son) and appoi...

Russia might be banned from the Olympics
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2019

On November 22 the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA) announced that it recommended that Russia be regarded as non-compliant. The decision has not yet been reached. WADA stated that there was proof of data from the Russian Anti Doping Agency (ADA) being tampered with. On December 9 WADA's executive ...

Addicted to stimulus
TURKEY · Report · 24 Nov 2019 · 1 response

We deviate from our standard weekly format today, as we limit our coverage only to a brief rundown of key economic data and developments. Our politics author shall follow this up later during the week with his political updates.

Low inflation, strong shekel and mixed growth support rate cut today (Monday)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Nov 2019

Rate cut expected today (Monday) We think that weak inflation, a strong shekel and soft underlying growth support a 0.15% rate cut today. Headline inflation is running at 0.4% y/y, and core: 0.5% in October, declining from 0.7% last month and 0.9% two months ago. The shekel has appreciated by 2.3...

The IMF leaves: no signs of close deal
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2019

The IMF mission left Ukraine today. The Minister of Finance posted on her Facebook page the letter below. She commented that everything goes well and they’ve reached substantial progress in negotiations. Media wrote the IMF asks questions about Kolomoyskiy and keeps concerns on the NBU independen...

Bridge reopens in Ukraine Conflict Zone
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Nov 2019

A bridge in Stanystia Luhanska has been built. This is an act of great significance. The bridge allows people to pass between rebel held territory and land controlled by the Ukrainian Government. The troop pullback has already been completed. Zelensky wants to control the border with Russia, all ...

Russian policymakers spar over growth
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2019

On November 20 VTB held its annual Russian Calling Investment Forum. Top Russian ministers rowed over who is culpable for the country's anaemic economic growth. The Minister for Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin said that low demand explained feeble growth and that the central bank has miscalcu...

The South African Reserve Bank plays prudent by keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2019

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at its final meeting of 2019, leaving the benchmark interest rate at 6.5% and the prime interest rate at 10%, ending the year with only with one change in the repo rate in July 2019. Three mem...

An end to the Trump presidency could significantly impact the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Nov 2019

* Trump has already had a major impact on the Gulf, including in Saudi domestic politics. * The 2020 election is hard to call given a divided Democratic field, the impeachment process and past polling shortcomings in swing states. * The Democrats have all committed to rejoining the Iran nuclear...

The MNB and the EPP: the status quo remains in both areas
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2019

Following unsuccessful attempts to break out on both sides, the forint seems to have settled down in the EURHUF 330-335 trading range again. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, this seems to be a logical development.One recent event in this respect was Q3's better-than-expected growth...

Another round of elections appears increasingly likely
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Nov 2019

The head of Blue and White (Gantz) announced that he has failed to form a coalition in the 28 days allotted to him, following a similar period in which Netanyahu tried to form a government.We now go to a 21-day period in which anyone can try to form a coalition, but this will require the approval...

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