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Weekly Tracker: May 18-24
TURKEY - Report 18 May 2014
Executive Summary There is yet not enough evidence in the Soma mine disaster that either the owner of Soma Holding or AKP’s preferential treatment of the mine was directly responsible. Yet, AKP’s defensive manner and the very poor PR management of the disaster turned the public wrath against the ...

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Election 2014: An Unexpected Majority
INDIA - Report 16 May 2014
The election results, which give the BJP a clear majority, are the first time since 1984 that one party has had a majority. This opens up all sorts of exciting possibilities. An Unexpected Majority In 1984, the Congress won 414 seats compared with the 272 required for a majority. After that, no s...

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Santos could lose the election
COLOMBIA - In Brief 15 May 2014
Finally, all the major political polls published their latest results this week. All of them show Mr. Santos losing serious ground to his competitors, but even more worrisome is the fact that many of them show he might very well lose in the run-off too. Even Gallup, probably the most well-conduct...

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Very strong GDP figure out for Q1 2014
HUNGARY - In Brief 15 May 2014
Real GDP grew a preliminary 1.1% qoq / 3.2% yoy swda in Q1 2014, following a revised 0.7% qoq / 2.9% yoy swda in Q4 2013, as reported by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) this morning. This is a seven-year peak in the yoy number. As usual for preliminary GDP data releases, no details are avail...

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Mid-week review in Turkish politics
TURKEY - In Brief 14 May 2014
Turkish government declared three days of national mourning as the death toll in the Soma coal mine accident reached 205. I fear it may reach as high as 450. Was this a genuine “act of God”? Or the result of careless privatization and deregulation in the mining industry? While the debate is alrea...

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Colombian Treasury buying dollars to weaken the COP
COLOMBIA - In Brief 13 May 2014
The Minister of Finance posted a tweet announcing that the Treasury is going to buy USD to weaken the COP. The announcement had an important impact on the fx market today. However, the important question is the Treasury's capacity to intervene. For now, according to the Ministry, excess cash at h...

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Post-Election Fine Tuning
HUNGARY - Report 13 May 2014
Executive Summary Although the new cabinet is not expected to be up and running before early June, post-election policy shifts are discernable, in the new Central Bank and State Debt Management Agency measures to reshape government financing, and the update of Hungary’s convergence program. Herei...

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Quiet Launch of Security Plan
MEXICO - Report 13 May 2014
Executive Summary With absolutely no fanfare the federal government published its National Public Security Program for 2014-2018, at long last spelling out the administration’s security objectives, strategies and lines of action, as well as the indicators the government will be using for gauging ...

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Infrastructure Plan’s Challenges
MEXICO - Report 13 May 2014
Executive Summary The week before last, the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto unveiled its National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) for 2014-2018. Over the course of April officials announced a total of 44 national, institutional, regional and state programs – including 32 that were announ...

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Zero inflation trend continued in April
HUNGARY - In Brief 13 May 2014
CPI-inflation for April came out at 0.1% mom / -0.1% yoy in April, which made the average Jan-Apr yoy inflation rate exactly 0%. The April data was pulled down by a 0.5% yoy decline of food prices, due to the right amount of rainfall and the lack of freezing temperatures, which could have destroy...

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Resurrections, Alarms, And Scandals
COLOMBIA - Report 12 May 2014
Executive SummaryWith the June 1 Inauguration Day approaching, President-elect Salvador Sánchez is being forced to face financial realities. Though he’s built bridges with various sectors and laid the groundwork for a favorable domestic climate, recent data make clear that the budget lacks funds,...

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Outlook on the Elections
INDIA - Report 12 May 2014
Executive SummaryIt would be surprising if the mainstream projections of a clear majority for the BJP work out. The NDA is likely to come to power, but as a weak coalition dependent on the support of a few allies and it is likely to have a weak position in the Rajya Sabha until 2016. It is unlike...

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Inflation: Differences Between 2002 and 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 May 2014
There is little doubt that after the elections the Central Bank will have to undertake the hard task of bringing inflation back to the 4.5% target. There is also little doubt that convergence to this target will be a long and arduous process.

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Political Insights: Week of May 12
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 12 May 2014
The 10-minute PT party ad will air on Thursday, with Dilma Rousseff and Lula as the focus of the ad.Guido Mantega goes to the House to address the Petrobras allegations as well as the economic scenario.Congress continues focus on the Petrobras CPI.Mayors from all over the country will take part i...

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Chugging Along
PHILIPPINES - Forecast 12 May 2014
Executive Summary By and large, the central scenario we drew up in our last quarterly report continues to hold, with government’s own leading economic indicator pointing to a slowdown in 1Q14 GDP growth.We are also seeing several potential drags on growth, including infrastructure bottlenecks and...