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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Pressures build
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2020

Back from his international tour, Juan Guaidó now faces the challenge of following up on the road map settled on with international allies with political action at home: step up pressures so that presidential and parliamentary elections are held this year and meet international standards as to po...

Virus and China’s demand for capital
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Feb 2020

China is introducing a series of measures to counter the downward effects of the virus on GDP growth. These policies will increase China’s demand for capital. We examine the expected sources of capital raise, domestically and internationally, and analyze what this means for the capacity of the st...

Turkey and Russia at daggers drawn
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

On February 27 a Syrian air strike killed 33 Turkish soldiers. The Turks are in Syria against the express wishes of the Syrians. The Syrians would presumably only have done this with the approval of the Russians who are their main allies.The Turks have moved thousands of more troops into Syria. R...

Revamp for Russia's ruling party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

The United Russia Party is going to merge with another pro-Putin party the All Russian People's Front. This was reported in Meduza (a major Russian magazine) on February 26. Dmitry Medvedev, the former Prime Minister, will no longer be leader of United Russia due to his unpopularity. The new part...

Hunting in the zoo
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

When it comes to surprise, the January press conference to present the revised fiscal outlook did not disappoint. It was announced that the 2019 deficit was 2.5% of GDP -- far below the ceiling imposed by the relevant External Committee, and down from 3% in 2018. That would have been good news, e...

Assessing the impact of the Rosneft Trading SA sanction
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

The sanction imposed on Rosneft Trading SA (RTSA) puts 600 kbd of Venezuelan exports at risk (80 percent of total exports), impairing Venezuela’s ability to import much needed fuel and inputs for refineries and to service its debt to China. Pdvsa is seeking for new traders to replace RTSA but fur...

Coronavirus effects may soon be contained in China
CHINA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

The coronavirus outbreak that began in late January was one of the most severe exogenous shocks in China’s recent history, especially since it overlapped with the Chinese New Year holiday, which involves the largest population migration in human history. As of February 26th, some 80,428 cases had...

South Africa’s Budget 2020 makes substantial moves to reduce the bloated public sector wage bill
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2020

Our 2019 Budget report’s title indicated that tough decisions had been made while at the same time asking if it was enough, i.e., were the measures taken enough to improve South Africa’s fiscus or at least halt its deterioration. It’s a year later, and we all know it was not enough. Today Finance...

Russia to hold referendum
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

On February 26 Moscow announced that a referendum will be held on April 22 on constitutional reform. The people will be asked to approve enhanced powers for Parliament at the cost of the presidency. The government will make sure it gets the result that it wants from the electorate. The challenge ...

MNB: No measure, but a reworded statement issued yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

In line with expectation, the Monetary Council announced no measure whatsoever after yesterday's rate-setting meeting. However, they issued a significantly reworded statement.Reading through the communiqué, one has the feeling that the Council simply met the likely expectation that a new situatio...

Fiscal reform’s painful birth depresses growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Feb 2020

Costa Rica’s 2019 economic evolution was marked by the fiscal problem, and the political environment surrounding it. In the reform and its entry into law in early December 2018, uncertainty about its implementation, and the willingness of the Executive to comply with it extended negative expectat...

Mid-Week Update
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

I have not titled this Market Brief, because too many issues are on the agenda of the markets, which makes it very difficult to find a common threat to express in a brief headline. They are mostly negative. These are Idlib, Libya, Covid-19 CBRT head Uysal’s speech Bursa Joint Chambers of Industry...

Chile: Winter is coming
CHILE · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

The phrase, made popular by the series Game of Thrones, relates to the call to be prepared for the hardships of winter. Although most of Chile is still enjoying warm summer temperatures, the beginning of March, associated with students returning to class, is a reminder that winter is indeed comin...

Review of the inflation targeting framework
INDIA · Report · 25 Feb 2020

Inflation targeting began in India in February 2015. It was the first time in India’s history that the central bank had an objective: prior to this, it followed a “multiple objectives, multiple indicators, multiple instruments” approach that constituted all discretion and no rules. The first f...

Saudis might end oil solidarity with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

On February 20 the Wall Street Journal claimed that the Saudis are mulling whether to sever its oil production pact with Russia. The Russians have declined to reduce oil production in view of coronavirus. Russia is not in OPEC but is in OPEC+. Riyadh asked that production be cut by 600 000 bpd. C...

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