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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Hyperinflation at full speed
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Jun 2018

We revised up our inflation estimate for May 2018 to 107 percent, from 102 percent in our previous report. Accumulated inflation for January-May 2018 rises to 2,186 percent and the year-on-year rate for May goes up to 29,360 percent. We forecast a slight slowdown in the June monthly rate to 1...

Last week’s storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jun 2018

What was the cause of the storm that beset the Brazilian market last week? There was no single cause, but rather a series of causes. One was the abrupt, but not unexpected, end of an external bonanza period, characterized by low international interest rates and an abundance of foreign capital flo...

Datafolha Poll: The race is still open
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2018

The Datafolha poll released Sunday reinforces the scenario of the unpredictability of Brazil’s presidential election. In scenarios without the presence of former President Lula (PT), Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads. However, Bolsonaro has had trouble winning over voters beyond his right-wing loyalists.

MNB says not at all interested in forint weakening
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2018

Following a similar statement by Finance Minister Varga, MNB vice governor and Monetary Council member Ferenc Gerhardt told InfoRádió on Friday that the forint's recent weakening vis-a-vis the euro is no matter of interest for the MNB. As the MNB has no exchange rate target, it will not tell how ...

​Odebrecht case update: a bigger than expected deceive
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 10 Jun 2018

A year and a half after investigations into the million-dollar bribes of Odebrecht in the Dominican Republic was launched, the Attorney General's Office filed formal accusations. Few expected an impartial and fair investigation because the Attorney General is a political subordinate of President ...

The new old
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2018

Immediately after the inauguration, President Putin signed a decree establishing national development goals for his six-year Presidential term. Although the previous decree signed in 2012 was not fully fulfilled, it became an important performance management instrument for the government. With am...

Running scared, recession underway
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jun 2018

A number of recent polls add weight to our call of President Erdogan winning the race in the second round, as we declare CHP candidate Mr. Ince his potential rival. Assuming pro-Kurdish HDP passes the qualifying hurdle, opposition parties should gain control of the Grand Assembly. A spate of rash...

XP/IPESPE Poll: Bolsonaro leads, Ciro gains, and Lula lifts Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2018

​The new telephone poll conducted by XP/IPESPE (June 4-6) shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), despite having lost some ground compared to the May poll, is still in the lead in the presidential race in scenarios in which former President Lula (PT) is not a candidate. Bolsonaro’s performance (from 21%...

Finance minister Varga appeared quite relaxed about the weak forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2018

Mr. Mihály Varga, who once again bears the title of finance minister (pretty much a different name for the economy minister only) spoke in a rather relaxed mood about the weak forint today, despite the May jump in CPI-inflation (to 2.8% yoy from 2.3% in April), which obviously had a lot to do wit...

Does Xi Jinping control China’s economy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Jun 2018

Xi Jinping is widely viewed as China’s strongest leader since Deng Xiao Ping thirty years ago. He has consolidated control over the Party, rammed home an anti-corruption campaign, and pledged backing for the expansion of the state sector through programs such as “One Belt One Road” and “Made in C...

Until March 2019: From here to eternity
TURKEY · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

The CBRT’s latest move avoided the worst but more needs to be done as the global backdrop deteriorates for high-CAD, high F/X debt countries such as Turkey. But until Turkey’s election cycle ends, with the March 2019 local elections, substantial corrective policy action is difficult to imagine.

Not until after the 2019 elections?
UKRAINE · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

The economy is recovering after crisis and war. As external payments continue to rise, there are stumbling blocks to an IMF agreement.

Rough seas ahead
VENEZUELA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

Holding fair elections by year-end is on the public agenda again, and civil society is beginning to organize. Current bad policy and bad outcomes point to a full scale debt restructuring on the horizon.

Reviving the economy alongside institutional reform
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

South Africa’s economic growth surprised on the upside during in 4Q 2017, with rising confidence expected to boost investment. But the country faces some chronic and difficult political economy challenges at present.

2018 post-electoral AMLO economic scenario
MEXICO · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

We see a positive 2018-2019 economic outlook, but it’s unstable afterwards if AMLO wins.