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The “New Normal”
CHINA - Report 29 Jan 2015
Executive Summary Growth has been slowing, with the 7.4% rise in real GDP in 2014 representing a 0.3 pp dip from 2013. That means growth has run below 8% for three years in a row. Quarterly growth rates were quite flat last year, too. Some depressive factors are worth noting. First, industr...

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The growing corrosive power of the Petrolão scandal
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Jan 2015

Two new pieces of information add potentially explosive elements to the crisis surrounding the Petrobras corruption allegations. According to the Radar Online column, the President of UTC, Ricardo Pessoa, is collaborating with the Lava Jato operation on a plea bargain deal in exc...


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Unexpectedly strong IP in December (+3.9% y-o-y); the Government publishes its anti-crisis plan
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 28 Jan 2015

Last couples of days for Russian financial markets were influenced by S&P’s de...


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2014 Inflation: Puzzling Data
VENEZUELA - Report 28 Jan 2015

In the absence of BCV inflation data, we continue analyzing inflation using the household food basket data published by the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers (Cendas). This data has shown significant correlation with the NCPI food subindex.


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Economics: Weaker Economic Census Results
MEXICO - Report 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

The National Statistics Office (Inegi) recently released the preliminary version of the results from its 2014 Economic Census. The census, conducted in 2014, collected statistical data information on the activities of business establishments during 2013. The census...


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Politics: Parties Fiddle as 2015 Campaign Looms
MEXICO - Report 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

A major threat to the credibility of the June elections consists of the degree to which the parties act as if they are utterly oblivious to the extent to which they are held in disrepute and proceed as if all were business as usual, preoccupied by infighting and th...


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A Boost from Abroad
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 27 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

The global economy will boost Central American economies this year.This is, first, because of the expected behavior of the U.S. economy, the most important export market for the region, and the main source of private remittances for El Salvador, Guatemala and Hondur...


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Hawkish Till February 4th
TURKEY - In Brief 27 Jan 2015

Today Governor Basci presented the first Inflation Report of the year. This year's yearend inflation estimate was revised down by 0.6 pps on the back of lower oil prices, down to 5.5% (midpoint). The key highlight of the meeting however was what the Governor said during the Q&A sessio...


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Oil+ECB=Turkey Decouples?
TURKEY - Forecast 26 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

After a volatile year, Turkey has had a good start into 2015, the main driver being a collapsing oil price. Indeed, there is little doubt that a sharply lower oil price, bolstered by ECB tailwinds, is a great boon for Turkey’s macro balances and offers a cyclical op...


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Under New Management
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 26 Jan 2015
Executive Summary The resounding failure of the economic policy practiced between 2011 and 2014 culminated in the replacement of Guido Mantega by Joaquim Levy as finance minister, and prompted an about-face in economic policy. The diagnosis has changed and the new macroeconomic policy orientat...

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Week of January 26
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 26 Jan 2015

Politically, this will be an intense week.President Dilma Rousseff meets with her ministerial team.She will ask for an end to public disagreements and support for the fiscal effort.Unions will strike nationally to revoke changes made to labor and social security rights.The race for the preside...


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Where is the Real Headed?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 26 Jan 2015
In the past several days the real has appreciated, interrupting a lengthy period of gradual weakening. At the start of the year, the exchange rate was fluctuating in the neighborhood of R$ 2.70/US$, but recently it has gotten stronger, closing last week at R$2.58/US$. The real is one of the curre...

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Weekly Tracker: January 25-31
TURKEY - Report 25 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

A car bomb exploded at the gates of the hotel in Mogadishu where the Turkish delegation was staying, but we are not sure this was a message to Erdogan. For the time being, fundamentalist terror is fortunately staying away from Turkey. The impeachment vote of four ex...


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Devaluation 2015: Act Two
VENEZUELA - In Brief 23 Jan 2015

Maduro’s announcements on 21 January 2015 devalue the bolivar by morphing the exchange rate regime, keeping multiple exchange rates, forex controls and rationing. Arbitrage and corruption will continue marring the system. President Maduro said this r...


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Dominican Rep government placed Sovereign Bonds for USD 2.5 bn
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 22 Jan 2015

The government of the Dominican Republic announced that it placed Sovereign Bonds for USD 2.5 bn. USD 1 bn worth of bonds were placed with 10 years maturity at an interest rate of 5.5%, and USD 1.5 bn w...