NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

The importance of the internet and social media in the electoral process and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2018

President Michel Temer is holding a ministerial cabinet meeting on Tuesday, May 15, to review the government’s past two years and to decide what must be addressed by the end of the year. In the Lower House, representatives may conclude voting on the amendments to the bill on the positive registry...

The end of the cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2018 · 2 responses

Whether the Central Bank will cut the SELIC rate by 25 basis points at the next COPOM meeting or not will only be known next Wednesday. But in either case, that meeting will mark the end of the current easing cycle. The deprecation of exchange rate last week was in large part (although not totall...

Dark tunnels, approaching lights
TURKEY · Report · 13 May 2018

With six candidates certified to contest the election, Erdogan remains our favorite to win in the second round. Yet, a new trick by the opposition alliance and a potential swing of the Kurdish vote towards his rival could make him sweat. In general elections, our poll-of-polls table suggests A...

​The curious case of Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2018

The Supreme Court voted 8-6 yesterday to remove its chief, Maria Lourdes Sereno, from office and to declare the position of the Chief Justice vacant.The granting of the quo warranto petition, essentially asking the high court to nullify CJ Sereno’s almost six-year old appointment as chief justice...

New hits
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2018

Russian authorities started blocking Telegram – a popular online messenger whose founder refused to share encryption keys with the law enforcement. Weeks of blocking attempts resulted in thousands participating in street protests and multiple unrelated online services having connection issues but...

Maduro will declare victory. Then what?
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2018

Venezuela’s presidential election is just over a week away, but few citizens are passionate about the campaign. Folks are more concerned with day-to-day life under hyperinflation and collapsing public services. Surveys suggest that, nonetheless, more people intend to vote than they did a few mont...

Off to a good start
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 May 2018

GDP grew 6.8% in 1Q18, among the best in the region and in line with analysts’ estimates. Driving growth were domestic demand components, particularly:(a) household consumption, which grew 5.6% on the back of a 10% growth in peso remittances, despite rising inflation and crude oil prices;(b) publ...

Suspense Continues
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 May 2018

After a high level meeting of economy ministers and bureaucrats held at the Presidential palace this afternoon, the President's office issued a statement, which we offer a quick and dirty translation below to help you to draw your own conclusions. (The original statement in TR can be accessed her...

Squeaking by, without IMF money
UKRAINE · Report · 09 May 2018

With few notable events in April, we decided to take a closer look at what might happen if the IMF deal were delayed until after the 2019 elections—although we remain hopeful that cooperation will resume in 2018. Two important dates are coming up in the next two years: a presidential election ...

President Ramaphosa's first100 Days in office: South Africa's new dawn, Zuma legacy and the forceful gravity of historic challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 May 2018

President Ramaphosa's first 100 days in office are drawing to an end. He has promised a new dawn for the country's democracy, an ethical revival for the ANC, and a restart for the sluggish economy. On all these fronts, he is bogged down by some or other legacy challenges. The country's democratic...

​Back to the IMF
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 08 May 2018 · 1 response

After last week’s measures to control devaluation expectations[1] president Macri announced today that the government has agreed with the IMF to retake conversation with the aim to negotiate a new Flexible Credit Line (current market talks go as high as USD 30bn).Treasury Minister Dujovne, who is...

Consequences of Joaquim Barbosa’s withdrawal from the presidential race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2018

​The withdrawal of former Minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Joaquim Barbosa (PSB) from the presidential race in October has prompted some important developments. The first of these is that, without Barbosa in the game, "anti-politics" or "outsider" candidacies are now restricted to two ...

Industry has passed its cyclical peak, following the Euro Area
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2018

New industrial data shows that output growth in the sector, one of the key factors behind last year's 4.2% real GDP growth has passed its cyclical peak already. This morning, KSH reported -0.7% mom, 2% yoy for output growth in March, down from 4.1% yoy in February and 6.6% yoy in January (all on ...

U.S.-China trade war likely to be short-lived
CHINA · Forecast · 08 May 2018

Chinese economic growth was stable in Q1, with GDP up 6.8% y/y, flat on Q4. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y, a 0.6 pps rise from Q4. Investment was up 7.5% y/y, up 1.7 pps from the lowest growth rate of 2017. But price-adjusted investment growth was up only 1.2% y/y, though private investment r...

Adding fuel to the crisis
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 May 2018

The Banesco takeover hurts financial sector stability, feeds distrust, and fuels hyperinflation, recession, and loss of value of the bolivar. The largest bank in the country, accounting for 25 percent of total deposits and 26 percent of total loans, 8 million depositors (in a country with only 31...