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Domestic retail debtors of CHF mortgages remain unaffected by the SNB's move of yesterday
HUNGARY - In Brief 16 Jan 2015

In our Quarterly Report, out early this week, we expected a weaker forint for 2015, but we did not think it would come about as quickly as it did. In the wake of the Swiss National Bank's decision yesterday, EURHUF has strengthened by 1%, to 323, and CHFHUF has jumped by no less than 52 uni...


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New Deputy Governor on monetary policy in CBR
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 14 Jan 2015

Changes in CBR’s management were announced today at Gaidar Forum. There will be new Deputy Governor responsible for monetary policy. Dmitry Tulin will change Ksenia Yudaeva in that position. Mr Tulin wo...


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Even With Reforms, Debt Will Constrain Global Growth
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 14 Jan 2015

Special Points To Highlight In This Issue:

  • In spite of overwhelming historical evidence, and a sophisticated understanding of the mechanics of financial distress in finance theory, one of the most consistent mistakes macroeconomists make is their failure to recognize the growth co...

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CPI-inflation deeply below consensus in December 2014
HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Jan 2015

CPI-inflation for December 2014 is out this morning: -0.7% mom / -0.9% yoy (-0.7% yoy in November). The consensus expectation was -0.4-(-0.5%) yoy in various polls. Core inflation is down to 0.8% yoy from 1.2% in November, and our estimate of the underlying inflation rate is down very sharp...


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Third Quarter Aggregate Demand
MEXICO - Report 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

Aggregate supply and demand data at the third quarter of 2014 describe a scenario in which Mexico’s non petroleum exports remain strong, private investment and consumption are recovering at a slightly more solid pace, and public spending remains stalled as continui...


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First Half Holds Clues to Governability
MEXICO - Report 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

The two events that will dominate political life in Mexico during the first half of the year are this June’s midterm congressional elections and simultaneous local races in 17 states, and the spring session of Congress with its huge backlog of crucial legislation. ...


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The Future Hangs on Budget Revision
UKRAINE - Forecast 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

Though the year has begun, it’s still hard to envision how the next 12 months will unfold. Russian aggression is still on the agenda, but the core troublemaker right now is Ukraine’s 2015 budget. Disregarding the need to comply w...


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December CPI confirmed at 11.4% y-o-y, highest since August, 2009
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 12 Jan 2015

Rosstat released today CPI data for December which matched preliminary estimates published at year-end. In December consumer prices rose 2.6% m-o-m, highest growth rates since January, 2005. In annual t...


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Political Insights: Week of January 12
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 12 Jan 2015

The government’s help for electric energy distributors and the possible ministerial meeting are the two most important events for the week.Decisions on second and third-tier posts are also on the agenda. In the economy, we highlight the release of the GDP preview for November by the Central Ba...


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2015: Slow Growth, Low Inflation, Weaker Forint, Stable Budget
HUNGARY - Forecast 12 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

Since our previous Quarterly Report in October 2014, Hungary’s outlook has not changed dramatically, though it has been significantly modified by external factors like sharply falling crude oil prices, the weakening of the European business cycle, and the most ...


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What can be Expected on the Inflation Front in 2015?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 Jan 2015
In its most recent pronouncement, the Central Bank promised it would do “what is necessary to reduce inflation”. This is not the first time this promise has been made, and the fear that it will again not be kept justifies caution in making any projections. Although the presence of Joaquim Levy at...

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Weekly Tracker: January 11-17
TURKEY - Report 11 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

As a terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo shocked the world, smaller scale incidents in Istanbul were causing deep concern for us. Experts warn that a spate of bombings and sabotages may be in the cards for Turkey.

AKP successfully hushed up the graft probe ag...


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GDP growth at 7.1% in 2014; CAD reduces to 3.1% of GDP; inflation was the lowest since 1984
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 11 Jan 2015

The Central Bank released GDP growth figures for 2014. Expansion of economic activities was estimated at 7.1% compared to 2013. The figure is well above expectations and is the highest rate registered i...


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Revival in Investment?
INDIA - Report 07 Jan 2015

Executive Summary

The increased confidence associated with the new BJP government has shown up nicely in the data for announcements of new investment projects. Quarter-on-quarter growth of announcements for the Oct-Dec 2014 quarter was +22% for government projects, +6.4% for private ...


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The Economy Comes First
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 07 Jan 2015
The rapid depreciation of the Russian ruble and unexpected actions by the Central Bank undermined popular trust in the government and persuaded Russians to convert ruble savings into other currencies or buy consumer goods. So far, only a small segment of Russians, those with significant savings h...

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