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CPI-inflation, core inflation jump on tourism services and food in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2017 · 1 response

The July CPI data, released this morning, looks quite bad to be honest. It is not primarily the 0.0% mom, 2.1% yoy (up from June's 1.9% yoy) headline rate that is worrying, as this data was fully in line with analyst expectation (and just slightly higher than our own forecast). It is more the com...

Week of August 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2017

The government resumes discussion of Pension Reform – the goal is to begin the vote on the matter in late August. In the Lower House, party leaders are negotiating approval of the provisional measure on payroll tax exemptions. On Wednesday, August 9, IBGE releases inflation data for July. This...

President Zuma faces Secret Ballot at Last
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 07 Aug 2017

Tomorrow, Aug 8th, 2017 is already hard-coded in the annals of SA democratic history for the first ever secret Vote of No Confidence against President Zuma. An hour ago, the Speaker of Parliament announced a historic decision in favour of the 'secret ballot' option- some would say because the Con...

Economics: Reform A Success Minus Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2017

As we reach the third anniversary of Mexico’s energy reform, the goal of producing the strongest possible results in the shortest time possible remains a key objective, and one on which it is clearly delivering. That success is apparent in the extent to which Mexico has convinced both interna...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Aug 2017

The Chamber of Deputies preferred to ignore the robust evidence and refused to allow the Supreme Court to judge the denunciation of receiving bribes lodged against President Temer by the Chief Prosecutor’s Office. It was a personal victory for Temer, but the fragmentation of the allied base, with...

Politics: Tláhuac Lays Bare Cartel in the Capital
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2017

When Marine troops killed Felipe Pérez Luna ‒ a.k.a. "Los Ojos", the boss of a criminal gang based in the Tláhuac borough and flagrantly operating throughout a considerable part of Mexico City ‒ it brought to the public’s attention just how deeply organized crime has penetrated the capital. It u...

Industrial Production in the First Semester
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Aug 2017

After a long and intense decline, industrial output grew in the first half of 2017, marking the first episode since 2013 of two straight quarters of expansion. This is a clear sign of the start of overall GDP growth recovery, but the increase in production was not generalized, but rather concentr...

Recent peso depreciation may boost recovery if the Central Bank does not overreact
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 05 Aug 2017

The economy saw two areas of good news in June and July. On one side, several indicators showed that the economy is reviving faster and more broadly than most forecasters expected. On the other side, peso devaluation accelerated, and by the end of July the nominal exchange rate coincided with the...

Green Movement Power Expands
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 Aug 2017 · 1 response

Monetary policy has changed course, at least in the short run. Effective August 1st, the Monetary Board cut by 2.2% the coefficient of required reserves for financial intermediation entities. This represents a release of up to DOP 20.4 billion (nearly $425 million). The Board also cut policy inte...

South Africa's Political Cul-De-Sac
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 04 Aug 2017

Another week draws to a close and South Africans' frustration grows on many fronts. Not only is the economy held hostage to a political cul-da-sac and facing a near-certain official junk-grade by the year end, the politics has gotten unbearably confusing and brutal. So, SA is full of tension, bot...

After victory, other challenges
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2017

​As we predicted, Michel Temer successfully defeated the accusation presented by the Prosecutor General of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, in the Lower House. There were no surprises. The number of votes came in as we predicted: including abstentions and absences, the result was positive for Temer, ...

Phillips Curve Is Not So Flat Over Here
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2017

Thanks to a monthly reading of 0.15% (July 2016: 1.2%) headline CPI inflation fell to a single-digit rate of 9.8% in July, y/y, from 10.9% in June, broadly as expected. This was entirely on account of the drop in food inflation (to 14.3%, from 10.1% in June), with non-food inflation, by our esti...

Rate cut by RBI
INDIA · In Brief · 02 Aug 2017

On the 2nd of August, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI in its scheduled meeting decided to cut interest rate by 25 bps while it maintained the stance of monetary policy as neutral. This was largely anticipated by the markets. Several indicators suggest a serious slowdown in demand - indus...

Power Game Affecting Recovery
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2017

One might have thought that two parties with similar market-friendly views could work harmoniously, and create a fertile environment for reforms to facilitate an eventual government for Keiko Fujimori in the 2021 elections. Instead, this has been a year of acrimonious actions and accusations, and...

Weak Investment May Pressure Growth
CHINA · Forecast · 01 Aug 2017

GDP growth continues flat, its 6.9% y/y rise in H1 up only 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. Industrial output was up 6.9% y/y, climbing by 0.8 pps, and fixed asset investment was up 8.6%. But in real terms, fixed asset investment growth was just 3.8% y/y, down 5 pps from last year. We expect H2 growth to ex...

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