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June was just another month with rising core inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jul 2017

With little exaggeration, reports on new inflation data releases could now be easily copy/pasted from one month to the other, given that the basic trend shows no change, only the specific values are getting somewhat higher on each occasion. Regarding the June data, the headline CPI-inflation rate...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jul 2017

The country’s political scenario is still uncertain and filled with risks. Targeted by a denunciation of passive corruption and politically mutilated by the devastating conversation with Joesley Batista, President Temer has channeled all his efforts into producing a legal defense that can convinc...

Why do Chinese borrowers like risky structures?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 10 Jul 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Roughly two-thirds of all the outstanding putable bonds in the world, according to Fitch Ratings, were issued by Chinese corporations. Historical precedents suggest that the popularity of this type of structure in China almost certainly reflects diff...

Arko Poll: Lower House divided on authorization to investigate the President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2017 · 1 response

• Congressional representatives are divided on the accusation against President Michel Temer: 36.90% think the Lower House will not authorize the accusation; 33.69% think the contrary; • Most want the legislative recess to occur; • Forty-five percent (45.45%) think the coalition is willing to r...

Week of July 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2017

The Constitution and Justice Committee of the Lower House may vote on the report by Rep. Sérgio Zveiter on the accusation against Michel Temer; the government is working to conclude analysis by the Lower House in the next few days. On Wednesday, July 12, Congress will try to vote on the Budget Gu...

What has changed?
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2017 · 2 responses

Moving Leopoldo López from a military prison to house arrest was a unilateral move by Maduro’s government seeking to reinforce its National Constituent Assembly (ANC) initiative. The ANC hasn’t gained legitimacy and provides common ground to the opposition and “original” chavismo in opposing the ...

An Intense Monetary Easing Will Continue
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2017

With the start of the political crisis, it soon became apparent that from the standpoint of inflation two forces acting in opposite directions had been generated. By retarding resumption of growth, the crisis would accentuate disinflation, but by raising the risks and thus discouraging the capita...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jul 2017

The politics section of the Weekly has been penned before Kilicdaroglu’s justice rally in Istanbul, which is expected to proceed without a major security incident. The first section assesses whether his 450 km march from Ankara to Istanbul could alter the political equilibrium in the country. The...

Monthly inflation exceeds 20 percent
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Jul 2017

We revised down our June month-on-month inflation rate estimate to 23 percent (from 26 percent in our previous report) reflecting the decline in prices of a group of agricultural foods. We forecast a slight acceleration to 24 percent in July. Accumulated inflation for the first seven months of th...

Economic Recovery was Indeed Derailed and Confidence Remains Low
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 07 Jul 2017

• South Africa’s Growth: Economic Growth was more than disappointing during the first quarter of 2017 as GDP contracted by 0.7% following a prior contraction of 0.3% in the final quarter of 2016. This means South Africa entered into a technical recession during the first quarter of 2017, the firs...

More Notes on the 2017 ANC Policy Conference: Bereft of Content, Yet Raising Uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jul 2017 · 1 response

This report elaborates on and explains points in the Note on this topic we published yesterday, July 6. The much-awaited African National Congress (ANC) mid-term Policy Conference just wrapped up, and as we mentioned in our Note published yesterday, as anticipated, the Conference was far more ...

Midterm Election Race Heating Up
ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Jul 2017

With the nominations of the pre-candidates for the August primaries, the run-up to the October 22nd midterm elections has formally begun. While the government will fight to reinforce its “first minority” in both the House and the Senate, both politics and the market will be watching, in particula...

The 2017 ANC Policy Conference: Bereft of Content, Yet Raising Uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Jul 2017

The much-awaited ANC mid-term Policy Conference was wrapped up yesterday. As anticipated, the Conference was far more about the critical succession planning than any serious focus on any ideological or socio-economic policy issues. The observers had long argued that no meaningful policy debate co...

Signs of Economic Slowing Despite Strong GDP. Signs of a Competitive Presidential Race in 2018
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2017

Aggregate supply and demand for the first quarter grew much better than expected (4.2%) as the awaited slowing of private consumption failed to materialize, and a boost in petroleum exports allowed the trade balance to contribute half of a percentage point to overall growth. The leading index of ...

June's big cash deficit was caused by an upswing of payments on EU-sponsored development programs
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2017

This morning's report on an unusually big monthly cash deficit of the central government in June may have looked a bit scary at first glance. But looking into the details suggests it should not be highly consequential.The monthly cash deficit in June was HUF698bn, outstandingly big compared to a ...

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