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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The NBU cuts policy rate by 0.5 ppt down to 17.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Apr 2019

On April 25, the NBU Board approved policy rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 17.5%. Relatively smooth election process, steady national currency and further inflation easing (+0.9% m/m or +8.6% y/y in March) are behind the decision. But peaceful elections without confrontation, probably, were the main ...

CBRT bafflingly softens language
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Apr 2019 · 2 responses

In line with expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today (see chart). In the statement, the Bank’s assessment on the economic outlook was almost unchanged compared to the previous one, but the MPC unexpectedly eased its languag...

EL SALVADOR: Stagnation and Mystery
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Apr 2019

El Salvador’s economic growth/financial stability balance is clearly biased toward the former, as shown by modest real GDP growth averaging 2.5% y/y between 2010 and 2018. Expected growth won’t be different for 2019 and 2020. The roots of long-running stagnation are diverse, and reflected in pote...

North Korea leader visits Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2019

Kim Jong Un arrived in Vladivostok, Russia on April 25. The North Korean leader is in Russia's Far East to meet President Putin for the first time. North Korea and Russia have been allies since 1945. Sanctions on North Korea are biting, and a summit between Kim and Trump last month made no progre...

The CCJ approves the constitutionality of Pension Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2019

​On Tuesday afternoon, April 23, the Constitution and Justice Committee approved the report by Rep. Marcelo Freitas (PSL) with 48 favorable votes and 18 against. The result was significant and reveals the strength of the Centrão. Four points were removed from the original text: 1) the end of F...

Another uninspiring start to the year for South Africa, yet there is hope beyond the May general elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Apr 2019

* South Africa’s growth: The increase in economic activity and hence the recovery in growth in South Africa didn’t quite turn out as expected in 2018. But South Africa had been poorly run for years, and the effects were bound to linger for some time. We expect economic growth for the first qua...

Peering into the parliamentary election
INDIA · Report · 24 Apr 2019

In this report, we sketch our views on the main questions surrounding the elections. What are the factors at work shaping the minds of voters? What are the polls saying? How precise are these forecasts? What will change in terms of policy in the next five years? What changes if a coalition govern...

​About elections, mobbing and fractures
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2019 · 1 response

The message of this Market Brief can be summarized in 2 sentences. The verdict on Istanbul elections will lag to next week, with no change in my prediction that with 60-70% odds Erdogan will concede defeat. There are several fractures in AKP, while the mobbing of CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu her...

US ending sanctions exemptions means a boost for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2019

On April 22 the White House announced it was ending exemptions to its sanctions on Iran. Until now 8 countries have been able to buy Iranian oil without facing pushback from Washington. These included China, India, Turkey and others. The news led to a Brent crude price rise by 3.3.%. The RUR jump...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2019

* Political novice Zelenskiy elected president of Ukraine. * Overall, economic news for Russia is rosy but the government is no more popular than before. * The resignation of the Kazakh president came sooner than expected. His replacement, Tokayev, called an early election. * Belarus...

Russia asks China to co-operate on Arctic trade route
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2019

The Russian ambassador to China is seeking Chinese co-operation on developing the Arctic trade route. Andrei Denisov, speaking on April 18, said this was linked to negotiations about Russian gas sales called Power of Siberia Two. Power of Siberia One is a gas deal due to expire in December this y...

BCV's designation as SDN
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2019

The designation of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) as a Specially Designated National and Blocked Person (SDN) by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on 17 April 2019 focuses on the central bank's foreign reserve management. Licenses issued in conjunction with the designation exclude ...

Editing Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2019

The main item on the agenda in the Lower House is the Pension Reform vote in the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). The government is dealing with the risk of a truckers’ strike. On Monday, the government may announce a set of measures to increase productivity, employment and economic acti...

Developments in financial stress
INDIA · Report · 22 Apr 2019

The defining problem of the Indian economy is the lack of private investment. A stressed financial system is one factor hampering private investment. In this note, we review the stress in a few components of the financial system. About 35% of the non-financial firms' balance sheet is under str...

The magnitude of the fiscal effort needed and the perspectives for success
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2019

​When the Temer administration realized that without controlling expenditures it would be impossible to end the explosive growth of the public debt, it submitted a proposed constitutional amendment to Congress in order to freeze primary spending in real terms. This was a correct choice, given tha...

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