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We were wrong on January inflation, a problem for the economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2019

Well, the problem is certainly not so much that we undershot the January inflation actual (though the analyst consensus got it right). They will most likely survive it somehow. The real problem is that the current growth rate of GDP, around 4% annually, less and less appears to be compatible with...

The new law on elections is disappointing
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Feb 2019

Last night, the Chamber of Representatives approved the bill on the electoral regime. The bill was passed by the Senate last week. The aim of the law is to create a new and modern electoral regime to complement the party law passed last year, which with shortcomings, was a step forward because it...

February flash: MEF complies with deficit ceiling and important Panama Canal Authority news
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2019

Fiscal PerformanceAccording to the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s (MEF) latest publication, the deficit of the non-financial public sector (NFPS) represented 2% of GDP for fiscal year 2018, thus barely hitting the ceiling of the Fiscal Social Responsibility law (FSRL). In November, we estimate...

Economics: New data could weigh on investment
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2019

The main source of concern weighing on economic agents in Mexico, whether domestic or international, is the heightened sense of uncertainty regarding Mexico’s economic evolution during 2019 and in the years to come, and how much risk it might pose to their investment, sales and earnings expectati...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Feb 2019

The prolonged hospitalization of President Bolsonaro, without taking a formal leave of office, has paralyzed part of the government, accentuating internal conflicts. The latest information indicates he will be released in the next few days, after which his actions and governing style will tend to...

Politics: The first election test for the incumbent Morena
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2019

Voters will go to the polls in only six of 32 states this June 2, but those state and municipal contests will offer the first test of a nationally incumbent Morena’s ability to extend its hold on elected office and build a much broader voter base with which to expand the political power needed to...

The House may conclude Pension Reform in June
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro may be discharged from the hospital on Thursday. Lower House President Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) will meet with governors to discuss Pension Reform. In the Senate, party leaders meet on Tuesday to decide on the presidencies of the permanent committees. On Friday, the Central ...

Russia unveils USD 391 billion development plan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2019

Moscow has announced a six year development plan involving 12 national projects. USD 391 billion is to be spent upgrading transport, infrastructure, improving education and healthcare. Almost half the money will come from the Federal Government and the rest from regional governments and various o...

Monetary easing in the second half of 2019?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Feb 2019

The SELIC rate will remain at 6.5% for the time being, but a scenario of monetary easing in the second half of the year is starting to take shape. The GDP growth projections for 2019, which were around 2.5%, are being revised downward, and even with approval of a robust pension reform (in the bes...

January's fiscal data is expected to impact the bond market
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Feb 2019

Robust wage growth remains a factor supportive of some inflationary pressure. On the other hand, the shekel continues to appreciate, moderating inflationary pressure. Higher rental prices and likely tax hikes following the election will be the main factors contributing to inflation this year (we ...

Google willing to co-operate with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2019

Google has allegedly agreed to share results for forbidden sites with the Russian authorities. The co-operation is not as extensive as Moscow asked for. This story is not yet confirmed. Google does not want to jeopardize market access. Some shareholders and employees of the company will be unhapp...

Headline CPI-inflation to decelerate further on fuel prices in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2019

CPI-inflation data for January is due tomorrow morning. Portfolio.hu says its analyst consensus is 2.7% yoy for the headline rate, unchanged from December. This would imply 0.3% mom.We do not quite agree with this consensus. Non-fuel inflation was 0.2% mom in January 2017 and 2018 alike, followin...

Evaluation of the year speech: no word at all on competitiveness
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2019

PM Orbán held his usual evaluation of the year speech today, which is his version of a state of the nation speech, delivered usually at some point around this time each year. Expectations were raised this time by official and semi-official indications, according to which the prime minister would ...

Reinventing populism
TURKEY · Report · 10 Feb 2019

A recent AREA poll confirms our assertion that the AKP-MHP alliance is slipping in nation-wide standings, while city-by-city polls by several agencies reveal it could lose three key races to the opposition. The primary reason behind voter discontent appears to be poor economic management, which P...

Russian Ministry of Finance might change borrowing policy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2019

As of February 13 the Ministry of Finance might stop announcing the weekly volume of OZR (RUR denominated debt) issuances ahead of auction. The government wants more flexibility in view of market volatility. The government would like to be able to sell bonds based on investor demand. Demand has b...

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