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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

COSTA RICA: A Happy Ending? Not Exactly
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Costa Rica’s Central Bank succeeded in controlling FX market turmoil in May, bringing the exchange rate down from the high levels it reached by the third week of May. But pressures persist, since Central Bank FX market intervention has not been neutral over the medium and long-term, as the offici...

Watch the Supreme Tribunal, not the helicopters
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 28 Jun 2017 · 1 response

Yesterday's events are part of the government's strong propaganda and terror offensives en route to the July 30 Constituent Assembly elections.The government's main fight is now against the "original" chavismo movement which erodes its political footing. Yesterday's noise distracted public opinio...

Politics: Violence Rebounds to 2011 Highs
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Last week brought more bad news on the security front as the May report on crime revealed the highest absolute number of murder investigations opened in any month since the current national system of official crime statistics was launched 20 years ago. In fact, there were more such murder cases t...

Week of June 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2017

The General Prosecutor of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, is expected to present an accusation against President Michel Temer to the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Members of the Public Ministry will elect Janot’s replacement on Tuesday, June 27, as he will leave his post in September. In the Senate, ...

The Interest Rate Cut at the Next COPOM Meeting
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jun 2017

Although the political crisis has generated uncertainty about asset prices, particularly the exchange rate, two strongly disinflationary forces still predominate: the negative GDP gap and the solid anchoring of expectations. In the last Inflation Report, the Central Bank recognized these points a...

Growth is Under Pressure
CHINA · Report · 26 Jun 2017

Growth, though stable, is facing downward pressure. Value added for major industrial firms was up 6.5% y/y in May – flat on April, and slightly below that of Q1, but still higher than all quarters of 2016. But a key driver for growth in China, fixed asset investment, was up 7.9% y/y, down 1.3 pps...

Is the MNB's new inflation view consistent with the labor market?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2017

Our short answer is: no, it is most probably not. Our long answer is: the reader should decide, based on available information.On June 20, the Monetary Council presented its new quarterly view on inflation. It basically said that due to a favorable change in external conditions and a roughly on-p...

Ready to grow
CHILE · Report · 23 Jun 2017

The Central Bank kept the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) at 2.5% at its June Monetary Policy Meeting. Likewise, the communiqué barely changed from May. The June communique corroborated the minutes of May’s meeting and the latest Inflation Report that 2.5% is a floor for the TPM. Only significant addi...

Pre-Holiday (Contrarian) Musings
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2017

Turkish markets will be closed on Monday-Tuesday, as part of the end-of-Ramadan holiday (Eid Al-Fitr) that starts over the weekend. We thought it’d be useful to recap some of the recent data releases and share a few somewhat contrarian thoughts on where things stand on the economy front. Turki...

Will there be peace?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2017

It has been one month since President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law in Mindanao following what he said was an act of rebellion by a group of Muslim extremists that had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS). Fighting between government forces and the extremists has been intense but...

Bad Economic Benchmarks in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Jun 2017

A fund manager recently told me he relies on three sets of data to monitor the strength of the Chinese economy: 1. Interbank interest rates. 2. The value of the yuan. 3. The rise or decline of China’s foreign exchange holdings. However, I would disagree with the use of these three benchmarks ...

Economics: The Financing Tap is Tightening
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2017

The issuance of credit to the non bank private sector slowed during the first quarter of 2017 relative to the pace of previous years. Both the business and consumer credit segments continue to grow at better than 5%, but that is well below the levels of past years, especially 2016, when growth wa...

Finance Minister Alfredo Thorne will resign.
PERU · In Brief · 21 Jun 2017

Finance Minister Alfredo Thorne will resign after Congress denied him a confidence vote he formally requested. His resignation comes as part of the fallout concerning the government efforts to revive the proposed airport project at Chinchero, Cuzco. The construction and operation PPP project was ...

Politics: Elections and Democracy in Question
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jun 2017

Opposition parties and candidates are mounting legal challenges to the official vote counts in two of the June 4 gubernatorial elections (Coahuila and the State of Mexico), in a pattern that has become all too predictable in Mexico for decades, in which there is often extensive documentation of w...

People’s Bank promotion?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jun 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • It has long been expected that Zhou Xiaochuan will soon retire as governor of the People’s Bank of China. Guo Shuqing and Yi Gang have usually been suggested as his most likely replacement, with Liu Shiyu sometimes mentioned as a possibility. • Anot...

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