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Economics: Congress’ Tinkering with the Budget
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2015

As we analyzed in previous issues of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy since October 26, the changes the Mexican Congress introduced to President Enrique Peña Nieto’s original 2016 Revenue Law propose an increase of 16.9 billion pesos. In contrast, lawmakers left the president’s public deficit propos...

Politics: Two Seats to Fill on High Court
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2015

President Enrique Peña Nieto has sent the Senate two alternative lists of candidates from which to choose the two people who are to fill vacancies on the Supreme Court being left by Justices Olga Sánchez Cordero and Juan Silva Meza, who are concluding their 15-year terms on the bench. This is the...

GDP at 6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Nov 2015

The economy’s 3Q15 performance, with growth accelerating to 6% on strong domestic demand, was generally in line with what we expected. The main source of higher growth last quarter was government spending. Public consumption rose 17% and public construction jumped 41%. Improved government expendi...

Healthy Vanity
ECUADOR · Forecast · 25 Nov 2015

In a sign of healthy and deserved vanity, President Rafael Correa has announced that he won’t run for reelection in 2017. Given the obvious fragmentation and mediocrity of the opposition, he said, his otherwise crucial presence wouldn’t be necessary to guarantee his party’s continuance in power. ...

Lava Jato Investigation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2015

The arrest of Senator Delcídio Amaral (PT-MS), situation leader (Dilma alley) in the Senate, has placed President Dilma and company back into the focus of Operation Lava Jato (Car Wash). Previously, President Dilma and her alleys had managed to shift the focus of the investigation on to Congress....

A rare kind of MNB statement on the forint's exchange rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Nov 2015

'We need a forint exchange rate, by which the 3% inflation target can be reached on the forecast horizon." This came from a high-ranking staff member of the MNB, Mr. Barnabás Virág, executive director, talking to Reuters earlier today. He added that Hungary's inflationary and growth outlook are b...

Tough and Thrilling Times
PERU · Report · 25 Nov 2015

More than 20 political parties have jumped into the April 10th presidential race, though only about 10 candidates are likely to emerge, after parties forge alliances. We expect the final slate to be unveiled by mid-January, when some alliances might also be revealed. All polls show Keiko Fujim...

Hack of a Day: First Impressions
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Nov 2015

Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet Bottom Line: Very worrisome news, but further escalation or military conflict is not a foregone conclusion… A much-feared development -- because various parties (Russia, U.S., Turkey, etc.) have been operating so close to each other over the Syrian territory --...

A Recession Near-Miss for the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Nov 2015

On a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annualized basis, growth during Q3 2015 was a paltry 0.7%. Quarter-on-quarter GDP contracted by 1.3% in Q2 2015, and this means that the South African economy managed to escape a recession during Q3 2015, albeit marginally. A recession by South Af...

Medina at His Worst Time
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 23 Nov 2015

There is little doubt that Danilo Medina and his government are at their worst moment. The charm surrounding the figure of the President has been fading, and although no recent data is available from credible polls, it is very likely that his popularity has diminished. A series of events have ...

Week of November 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2015

The analysis of the case against Eduardo Cunha in the Ethics Council is one of the main topics on the agenda in the House. The PPS will go to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to ask for Cunha’s removal. The government will try to vote on changes to the 2015 fiscal target in Congress, but before th...

Inflation and Recession: The Central Bank Dilemma is Getting Worse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Nov 2015

The IPCA-15 for November rose 0.85%, taking the 12-month inflation rate to 10.28%. Part of this movement is due to administered prices (Graph 1), but along with the pressure exerted by service prices, the influence is also being felt of the weaker exchange rate, which has depreciated 40% since th...

Game changer?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Nov 2015

After hemming and hawing for months, Mayor Rodrigo Duterte finally announced over the weekend that he will run for the presidency. Surprisingly, he cited the favorable ruling of the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) on the issue of Senator Grace Poe's citizenship as the reason for his decision. The...

​Alea iacta est: Macri President
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2015

With 98.4% of the total votes counted, at the moment of writing these lines, and with Macri obtaining a 2.9% lead over Scioli, there is no doubt left that Mauricio Macri will become, on December 11th, Argentina’s new president. This represents an important change in the political ideology of the ...

Weekly Tracker: November 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Nov 2015

The cabinet announcement has been delayed to early this week, reportedly because of President Erdogan’s busy schedule, but some differences of views -- between Davutoglu and Erdogan – seem to be playing a role as well. On the most market-sensitive issue of Mr. Ali Babacan’s role in the new cabine...

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