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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Will fading Ramaphoria compromise South Africa’s growth recovery?
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Jul 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Real GDP contracted markedly in the first quarter of 2018 following a surprise 3.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2017 and GDP growth above 2% for three consecutive quarters (since quarter 2 2017). Although there was a marked improvement in th...

Full Employment Declines in Q2
ECUADOR · In Brief · 18 Jul 2018

President Moreno will be sending his veto to the recently approved economic law today. In the meanwhile, INEC published the latest employment information that shows a decline in the quality and number of jobs between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018.In fact, 161,689 full-time jobs (adequate employment) were l...

The forint is to stay weak on a sustained basis
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jul 2018

The temporarily but substantially depreciating trend of the forint, which started in May, collapsed spontaneously in early July, without the MNB doing anything material to stabilize the currency, except for stopping its usual market interventions against the HUF for several weeks. The key takeawa...

Issuance of Global Bonds for USD 1.3 bn reveals a drastic change in financing strategy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Jul 2018 · 1 response

Last week the Dominican Republic placed bonds with 10 years to maturity in the international market for USD 1.3 bn at 6%. It was a surprise because that issuance put the total amount placed in the year at USD 3.122 bn, USD 1.022 bn above the indicative ceiling set forth in the budget law of 2018 ...

Economics: Economic challenges for the new administration
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jul 2018

International conditions could affect the viability of the economic program that Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government hopes to begin implementing as soon as it takes office December 1, especially considering the extent to which the last two presidential administrations have indebted the count...

Politics: Presidencialismo à la AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jul 2018

It may be too soon to fully grasp the dimensions of how profoundly the sweeping electoral victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his coalition will transform the political life of Mexico, but we can be sure it will bring major changes in the way power is wielded and the manner in which the p...

How far can the PT go without Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2018

Party conventions to select candidates and define coalitions ahead of the October elections begin on Friday, July 20. At least three candidacies will be made official by Sunday: Ciro Gomes (PDT), Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) and Jair Bolsonaro (PSL). With Michel Temer’s trip to Cape Verde, there will ...

Worse international conditions alongside domestic disarray
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jul 2018

The Central Bank long warned that the benefits of a favorable international situation were masking the damage caused by the absence of fiscal reforms, especially of the pension system. The fiscal reform efforts are stalled and now the international conditions have worsened, with the robust and sy...

Inflation enters the target range, but BoI expected to be patient
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Jul 2018

June's CPI (0.1% m/m, 1.3% y/y) surprised on the upside on higher food and housing prices. Inflation is set to accelerate to 1.7% y/y in July-August, while core inflation remains much lower, posing a dilemma for the Bank of Israel. The MPC is more likely to remain patient before deciding to tight...

Starting low
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2018

Putin’s approval rates have been negatively impacted by the pension system reform discussion that started shortly after the new government was formed. A proposal to increase the retirement age precipitated a sharp negative reaction among the general public. Although expected, it could not be cont...

18 July prevented me from writing a monthly
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2018

GlobalSource Partners Turkey team has sent its Weekly Reporton vacation until end of August and canceled its joint Monthly, not because we ran out oftopics to cover, but because the fast pace of events require more frequent and narrowly-focused analysis. As far as Yours Truly, the humble Politica...

New structures, old challenges
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jul 2018

The new economy czar Mr. Albayrak made his first remarks on the economy, which were encouraging, but lacked specificity. Needless to say, delivery and implementation will be the key, which, to say the least, is an extremely challenging mission to fulfill under the circumstances. In fact, with no ...

Rough reality check
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Jul 2018 · 1 response

The past weeks have been a rough reality check for a government that is struggling to advance with a now “accelerated gradualism” toward a more stable and productive economy. Despite the Macri government's more predictable political behavior than its predecessors', and its efforts to unwind inher...

Thumbs up from the USA, thumbs down from Venezuela and Bolivia
ECUADOR · Forecast · 13 Jul 2018

The Ecuadorian economy decreased 0.7% q/q in Q1 2018, but still grew 1.9% y/y (the lowest positive change since Q1 2016). The slowdown in recovery that started in Q3 2016 can be linked to a sharp decrease in public expenditure, which in Q1 2018 fell $2.63b q/q and $348m y/y. There was also a cont...

China’s Property Squeeze: Developers face a liquidity crunch
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Jul 2018

Out of all the sectors in China, property developers are suffering the most due to recent liquidity tightening policies from the central government. On one hand, traditional financing channels of bank loans, sales outstanding, private placement bonds, and offshore bond issuance have been signific...

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