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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New Indications on Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Sep 2017

Against a backdrop of anchored inflation expectations and a negative output gap, the Central Bank has induced a decline of the market real interest rate below the neutral level. The indication in the most recent Inflation Report is that the SELIC rate can remain stable for a long period – probabl...

A failed (and unconstitutional) attempt to modify ACP’s budget: Beyond Barria’s case
PANAMA · Report · 25 Sep 2017

Article 220 of Panama's Political Constitution asserts that The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will present its budget proposal to the Cabinet, which in turn is subject to Congress for its examination, approval, or rejection (Chapter 2, Title 9 of the Panamanian Constitution). This is the basis of ...

How Far Does Moreno Want To Go?
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2017

The ongoing animosity between President Lenin Moreno and former president Correa and the evident lack of support of a majority of legislators still loyal to Correa is a direct threat to the stability and success of this government. However, it has also opened an interest opportunity for More...

Winter Is Coming
TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2017

The referendum by Iraqi Kurds, assuming it is held, doesn’t pose a major threat to Turkey’s unity, but its aftermath is almost certain to require Turkish involvement in Iraqi affairs in unpleasant ways. Turkey’s descent into the Middle Eastern “event horizon” will accelerate as Turkish Forces mak...

Did the MNB get what it wanted this week?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2017

Well, no one can ever be sure, but we think it largely did. But what was it actually they wanted?What they did is well-known, yet a short summary might be useful:1. They cut their inflation forecast quite sharply. Even though they still expect headline CPI-inflation to reach the 3% target in Q2 2...

Rains from Hurricane María leave damages well beyond expectations in the East and Northeast
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Sep 2017

As expected, Hurricane María did not hit directly the DR territory but dropped massive amount of water in the East and Northeast of the country.The damages are well beyond expectations. Severe flooding have ocurred in densily populated areas of Duarte, María Trinidad Sánchez, El Seybo, La Altagra...

Waiting for the 19th Party Congress
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Sep 2017 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Economic activity continues to slow in China, according to the most recent monthly data, and credit continues to accelerate, pretty much in line with what we expected. We have to be very careful, however, about how we interpret the economic activity d...

The Reserve Bank Defies Market Expectations - No Interest Rate Cut
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Sep 2017

At its previous meeting in July 2017, the SA Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee cut the benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years. Today the MPC decided not to change the repo rate and kept it at 6.75%. South Africa’s inflation has been moderating since the beginning of t...

Tax reform: down to the wire?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Sep 2017

The Senate ways and means committee submitted last night its version of the tax reform package, authored by 14 of 22 active senators. We gather that Senate bill 1592 is very different from both the DoF proposal and the lower house's version, in terms of both the included policy changes as well as...

Spending Plan 2018: Subsidies cut, Reforms Budgeted
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Sep 2017

Macro-parameters are in line with our projections. Finance Ministry projects 3.0% of GDP growth (exactly what we expect), 7% consumers’ inflation (we project 6.9%) and UAH 29.3/USD (UAH 29.8/USD). Nominal GDP is expected to reach UAH 3 247.7 billion (UAH 3 217.3 billion);Budget deficit fits to th...

Hurricane Maria unlikely to have direct impact; the country prepares
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Sep 2017

Just day after being seriously threat by Hurricane Irma, the Dominican Republic prepares for the possible impact of Hurricane Maria. As we write, Maria is hitting Puerto Rico, as its eye is passing through the middle of the island. Reports indicate that the damage is being massive. In the DR, a d...

CNT/MDA Poll: Lula leads in the 2018 race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2017 · 1 response

A poll released today by CNT/MDA on the 2018 presidential race shows that former President Lula (PT) leads all three scenarios tested by the poll. Despite suffering wear on his image from the Lava-Jato Operation, Lula has preserved the loyal support of 30% of the electorate. Federal Representativ...

TL’s baptism by fire begins early
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2017 · 1 response

Fed’s FOMC decision created some unease in EM currencies, as the Dollar Index and U.S. long-yields rose somewhat, but the TL took a big hit, while the Istanbul Stock Exchange, now renamed BIST-100 Index substantially decoupled from peers in a negative way. Turkey’s exaggerated response to Fed con...

$3 billion Eurobonds: good news, bad news
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Sep 2017

Finance Ministry and President Office opened the champagne today. The Finance Ministry did a great job raising $3 billion in the open market just a few years after default. President's Office now reconciles new political prospects given that they no longer hang solely on the IMF funding. No doubt...

Week of September 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2017

President Temer takes part in the inauguration ceremony for Raquel Dodge at the PGR and then travels to the US for the UN General Assembly. The STF rules on the suspension of the accusation against Temer until signs of irregularities in the JBS plea bargain deal are clarified. In the Lower House,...

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