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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Embarking on a New Growth Cycle
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Sep 2017

The economy is performing far better than expected. Derzhstat, the statistics agency, reported a 2.4% y/y GDP increase in Q2, twice faster than we initially projected. Booming local investment — +22.5% y/y for H1 — and recovering consumption are the drivers. Remarkably, this result was achieved d...

​Really, Mrs. Merkel?
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2017 · 1 response

Pressured by her Social Democrat rival Mr. Schultz, Chancellor Merkel was forced to promise to end or suspend Turkish accession on Sunday in a televised debate. I waited until Wednesday to cover this story, because she seemed evasive in her response to Schultz. However in Tuesday, in her speech t...

The South African Economy Ends its Technical Recession
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Sep 2017

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualized quarterly GDP grew by 2.5% during the second quarter of 2017. This is a welcome outcome, largely expected by the market (as high frequency data was pointing to a positive growth outcome). This means South Africa is out of the technical recession w...

Indonesian Quasi-Sovereigns
INDONESIA · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Indonesian quasi-sovereigns are mostly in the form of state-owned enterprises. Currently there are over 100 SOEs, and many of them also have subsidiaries. Among the many Indonesian SOEs, Pertamina stands out as the largest company. Pertamina has several subsidiaries, and some of the subsidiaries ...

Growth Despite Softer Consumption, in the Twilight of the Administration
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Economic data released in August showed stronger GDP (+3.0% yoy for 2Q17) even as growth in industrial activity was restricted almost entirely to manufacturing (+4.0%). Cyclical indicators were positive as were readings of private consumption, which sustained its momentum (+ 4.0% in May), led by ...

Aiming for an Image of Judicial Independence
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 05 Sep 2017 · 1 response

The National Council of the Magistracy (CNM) last month appointed new judges to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the highest court for the resolution of electoral conflicts. Although the appointments, factually under control of President Danilo Medina, secured the PLD’s control over the court,...

Fuel prices likely to push up yoy CPI-inflation markedly in August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2017

Please, be prepared this Friday (September 8) for a marked jump by the yoy rate of CPI-inflation, to 2.6% in August from 2.1% in July, despite our expectation of zero one-month change in average prices in August. This is likely to be caused by fuel prices alone (7.5% of the CPI basket), which we ...

Core Rises Further Despite Lira Stability
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Consumer prices rose by a markedly higher than expected 0.5% in August, taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 10.7%, from 9.8% in July. Producer prices and core inflation (C-index) also rose further to 16.3% and 10.2%, respectively (from 15.5% and 9.6%), while service inflation was stable, b...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2017

The end of the recession – sealed by two straight quarters of GDP growth – and the continuing decline of inflation, interest rates and unemployment, are positive signs offered by the competent economic team. However, on the political side the picture is the opposite. The president’s fragility, re...

Week of September 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2017

This Thursday’s holiday (Independence Day) will reduce the pace in Congress, which may conclude the vote on the new fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018. In the Lower House, another attempt to move forward with Political Reform and Refis; in the Senate, the Provisional Measure that creates the TLP co...

Chile’s top economic team walks away
CHILE · Report · 04 Sep 2017

Chile’s entire economic team resigned last week, and the Santiago stock market was barely affected. Yet the news was a shock to the country’s political system. Indeed, the departure of Finance Minister Rodrigo Valdes, Deputy Finance Minister Alejandro Micco, and Economy Minister Luis Felipe Césp...

End of the Recession and Resumption of Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2017

GDP has expanded in the past two quarters, indicating that the CODACE will likely date the end of the recession as the last quarter of 2016. As expected, on the demand side, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2017 was driven by increased household consumption, which expanded by an annualized rat...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2017

Turkey enters autumn season with harshly enforced calm at home, but the opposition is gathering force. The short-term threats to political risk premium emanate from abroad. Tensions with Germany escalated another notch, when Turkey arrested yet another Germany couple. Berlin will have to retaliat...

Cementing the foundations of liberal democracy
INDIA · Report · 01 Sep 2017

In recent years, there has been increasing nervousness about the soundness of Indian democracy. There are concerns that democracy has become reduced to the rite of elections every five years, that India is succumbing to the problems of majoritarian bias and middle class religiosity plus nationali...

What will Wang Qishan Do?
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 31 Aug 2017

If the rumors are true that Wang Qishan will retire for health reasons, and will have no role, either in the Standing Committee or in a Leading Group, it would not represent, in my opinion, good news for China's economic adjustment. This will in the best of cases be a brutally difficult process a...

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