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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Same Old Same Old
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 15 Aug 2017

The President’s second State of the Nation Address (SONA) in July suggests that year 2 of the Duterte Administration will be much like year 1. Our central growth scenario of 6.5% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018 is unchanged from our last report, although we now expect greater contribution from exports ...

Week of August 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2017

The government is expected to announce the new fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018, aside from a set of measures to contain spending on civil servants. In the Lower House, we highlight the analysis of Political Reform. Even without an agreement, the provisional measure that deals with Refis was incl...

​A better than expected tie with improved political outlook
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Aug 2017

Cambiemos (Macri’s governing coalition) managed a somewhat better than expected result in the primary election for senator in the province of Buenos Aires. This is quite an achievement considering that the relatively unknown Esteban Bullrich competed against political heavy weights such as Cristi...

Monetizing debt does not relieve China’s debt burden
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 14 Aug 2017 · 3 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • China’s GDP was 11.4 percent greater in the first half of 2017 than it was in the first half of 2016, and 6.9 percent greater at comparable prices, implying a GDP deflator of 4.2 percent. This is broadly in line with the prime lending rate for banks ...

Economics: EM Outlook Firms, but Trouble Lurks
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2017 · 2 responses

The election of a new US president in November initially had a markedly adverse effect on most emerging economies, which had already been rocked by two years of depressed commodity prices, sluggish-to-negative growth and stressed public finances. Mexico was among the hardest hit countries as W...

Revisiting foreign exchange flows and stocks
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2017 · 2 responses

Financial tensions are on the rise. This year's forex cash flow deficit seems manageable, owing to sharp import cuts, but downside risks prevail. Pdvsa’s output declines and prices are volatile. Access to new funds in the international financial markets becomes increasingly difficult, the risk of...

Falling Inflation and Continuation of Monetary Easing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Aug 2017

The increase of 0.24% in the June IPCA exceeded the market consensus by 6 basis points, but the rise was all explained by the change in the electricity rate flag (from green to yellow) and the increase in the tax on fuels. All the same, inflation over the previous 12 months through August was onl...

No miracles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2017

The Russian leadership was extremely disappointed with the recent turn of the US–Russia relations. Despite a productive presidential meeting, the congressional decision to increase sanctions was clear evidence of no positive change to be expected any time soon. That came as a shock and insult to ...

Politics: BOF Efforts Intensify, But Pitfalls Remain
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2017

As the incumbent PRI considers new ground rules for its presidential selection process, and that of Morena was always a foregone conclusion, PAN and PRD leaders have been stepping up efforts to establish what they have billed as a Broad Opposition Front (BOF) that could involve other political pa...

Corruption and Political Crisis Threaten Economic Recovery
ECUADOR · Report · 11 Aug 2017 · 1 response

The internal crisis in the governing Alianza Pais has ballooned into a government and national political crisis that is threatening President Lenín Moreno’s already-difficult plan to lead Ecuador to economic recovery. The roots of the crisis are twofold. The first is ex-president Rafael Correa...

Real GDP growth declines to 4% in H1
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Aug 2017

The Central Bank released data that reveals a noticeable contraction in economic activity in H1. The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE, for its Spanish acronym) set real GDP rate of growth at 4%, below its potential. In H1 2016, GDP growth was estimated at 7.4% and for the whole year a...

Buoyant P/E ratio, buoyant earnings growth?
INDIA · Report · 09 Aug 2017

Fine points in the handling of firm data do matter. It appears easy and expedient to use the Nifty market capitalization time series and the Nifty P/E ratio time series to back out an estimate of Nifty earnings time series. While many finance practitioners do this, the procedure is highly mislead...

Inflation nearing 30% in August
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Aug 2017

Runaway monetary expansion and the steep increase of the price of the dollar in the parallel market continues driving prices upwards. Officially approved price increases in July contributed to inflation while also helping alleviate shortages of some goods. However, the black market for goods thri...

President Zuma Survives the Secret Ballot
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 08 Aug 2017

As I predicted in my yesterday' note, President Zuma survived today's motion of no confidence, held via secret ballots. This outcome,however, is significant in many respects. Firstly, 30 of the ANC MPs sided with the opposition to remove Zuma. This meant the motion received a total of 177 votes. ...

CPI-inflation, core inflation jump on tourism services and food in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2017 · 1 response

The July CPI data, released this morning, looks quite bad to be honest. It is not primarily the 0.0% mom, 2.1% yoy (up from June's 1.9% yoy) headline rate that is worrying, as this data was fully in line with analyst expectation (and just slightly higher than our own forecast). It is more the com...

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