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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of December 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2017

The government intensifies efforts to approve Pension Reform by the week of December 12. On Wednesday night, December 6, President Temer will meet with leaders of allied parties to discuss the reform. The same day, the PSDB, which is divided on the issue, will discuss a possible party-line vote. ...

Economic Recovery alongside High Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 04 Dec 2017

The most positive point of economic policy execution is the conduction of monetary policy fighting off inflation. The SELIC rate should close 2017 at 7% a year and remain at that level throughout 2018. With this, the ex-ante real interest rate for one year will remain near 3%, below the neutral r...

GDP in the Third Quarter and the Indications for 2018
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2017

The GDP data for the third quarter showed both continuity and more general recovery of the economy. Besides expansion of GDP for three straight quarters, the results for the first six months were revised upward, suggesting stronger growth for 2017 as a whole, of about 1%. Our projections are that...

Double-Digit Inflation, Our New Reality
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2017

Consumer prices rose by a more than expected 1.5% in November (versus consensus and roughly our forecasts of around 1.1%), which raised the 12-month rate sharply higher to 13%, up from 11.9% in October. Producer prices rose by a hefty 2% in the month, with the 12-month PPI rate staying broadly un...

Preview: Headline CPI-inflation will likely bounce back to 2.6% yoy in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2017

We believe that the headline CPI-inflation rate, which fell from 2.5% yoy in September to 2.2% yoy in October, will most likely jump to 2.6% yoy again in November. (KSH is due to report this data on Friday, November 8.)A key preliminary fact in this regard is that the wholesale prices of fuel ros...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2017

Three days of testimony by Reza Zarrab aired large amounts of dirt about Turkish politics and the shady deals made by some Turkish banks. Needless to say, these are accusations that need to be proven. The horror show is just starting. Once Zarrab is thoroughly grilled, the prosecution will parade...

Negotiations will shed light on 2018 outlook
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Nicolás Maduro wants to stay in power. Whether he will do so through a snap election in early 2018 with no pretense of fairness or legitimacy or by making concessions to boost his government’s legitimacy before semi-competitive elections later in the year is up in the air. Many analysts think tha...

Elections in Chile: Polarization?
CHILE · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Now that the dust has settled and the campaign for the run-off has truly begun, only two things are certain: the race between Sebastían Piñera and Alejandro Guillier is a toss-up (the latest polls have them basically tied) and Chile has become increasingly and perhaps dangerously polarized. Judgi...

Nascent Recovery Could Be Tempered by Political Outcomes
CHILE · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Though Q2 figures clearly confirmed the sluggishness of the Chilean economy in H1, Q3 numbers offered some green shoots, especially in exports and machinery, and in equipment investment. GDP growth recovered, to 2.2% y/y in Q3, from 1% y/y in Q2, with production strongly favoring the volatile nat...

The China connection begins amid anticipated fiscal performance and public-sector budget
PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Economic activity, measured by the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, grew 4.4% y/y in September and 5.6% from January to September. External activities such as the Panama Canal, ports, tourism, and airport traffic, as well as construction showed continuous growth, while Colon Free Zone re-expor...

Economic and political perspectives
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 01 Dec 2017

Is the economy showing signs of a slight recovery? How will the government comply with the fiscal rule over the medium-to-long term? How are the scenarios shaping up for the 2018 presidential election? This presentation highlights the medium term outlook for Colombia’s fiscal, monetary, and econo...

​Turkish politics just got a lot uglier
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2017

While the world is fixated on the earth-shattering revelations of gold trader Mr. Reza Zarrab in the Iran sanctions violations trial of Turkish names, developments at home could possibly wipe off the last vestiges of democracy. I find it hard to believe markets have discounted all the potential d...

Economic and fiscal waters still choppy
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Nov 2017

The government argues that economic performance hasn’t been so bad, given the shocks since oil prices began plummeting in 2014. The opposition, in political campaign mode in the runup to the May 2018 elections, focuses more on the bleak numbers, contending growth is insufficient for continuing to...

GUATEMALA: The Good and the Bad
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2017

This year hasn’t been bright for the Guatemalan economy. Real GDP growth is expected to fall below the 3.1% of 2016, despite U.S. economic recovery and large private remittance inflows. Inflation will be in the upper parte of the 3%-5% target range. Monetary policy remains under the control of t...

Tax reform: down to the wire (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Nov 2017

The Senate finally passed yesterday its tax reform bill (Senate Bill 1592) on third and final reading. Even though the press release headlined a P160-billion expected yield, it left many, including the technocrats in the Department of Finance unimpressed, mainly because senators introduced certai...

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