Services
GLOBAL COVERAGE
- ARGENTINA
- BRAZIL ECONOMICS
- BRAZIL POLITICS
- CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
- CENTRAL AMERICA
- CHILE
- CHINA
- CHINA ADVISORY
- CHINA FINANCIAL
- COLOMBIA
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
- ECUADOR
- GULF COUNTRIES
- HUNGARY
- INDIA
- INDONESIA
- ISRAEL
- JAMAICA / BAHAMAS
- KAZAKHSTAN
- MEXICO
- PANAMA
- PERU
- PHILIPPINES
- RUSSIA ECONOMICS
- RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS
- SOUTH AFRICA
- SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
- TURKEY
- UKRAINE
- URUGUAY
- VENEZUELA
Events
Databanks
-
Argentina databank Dec 4
-
Brazil Economics databank Nov 17
-
Central America databank Nov 29
-
Chile databank Nov 2
-
China databank Mar 21
-
Colombia databank Nov 30
-
Dominican Republic databank Nov 22
-
Ecuador databank Nov 28
-
Gulf Countries databank Dec 8
-
Hungary databank Nov 24
-
India databank Nov 21
-
Mexico databank Nov 20
-
Panama databank Oct 11
-
Peru databank Nov 9
-
Philippines databank Aug 11
-
South Africa databank Nov 27
-
Turkey databank Dec 6
-
Ukraine databank Oct 18
-
Uruguay databank Dec 1
-
Venezuela databank Dec 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING ARGENTINA WEBINAR: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE MILEI ADMINISTRATIO...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Robust Growth, without Fiscal Surprises
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Aug 2014
Executive Summary GDP growth rose an impressive 5.2% in H1, according to new Central Bank data, the largest expansion for a single semester since 2010. Accumulated inflation reached 1.93%, while y/y inflation was 3.41%, well below the lower limit of the Central Bank’s 2014 target range (4.5% ± 1%...
Oversight and the Price of Congress
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2014
Executive Summary Much has been written about the high cost of Mexican democracy, including the funds needed to sustain the Mexican Congress. Part of the problem stems from the fact that the legislative branch acts as both judge and jury when allocating public funds. There has been a considerable...
Domestic Savings at Midyear
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2014
Executive Summary Domestic financial savings in Mexico began to recover in the second quarter of 2014 as the public deposited funds with their banks at a greater rate than in either 2013 or the first quarter of 2014. That increase in deposits was achieved despite the fact that real term interest ...
Industry: Slumps 12.1% in July
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Aug 2014
In July industrial output fell 12.1% y/y twice as fast than a month ago (-5.0% y/y in June). Stronger contraction of metals’ output (-12.3% y/y vs. 5.6% y/y at the prior month), mining (-12.1% y/y vs. -4.8% y/y in June) and utilities (-7.8% y/y vs. -1.5% y/y) were the main reasons for sliding rat...
Bad news about the government debt ratio
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Aug 2014
Fact: The government debt ratio, as calculated by the MNB according to Eurostat standards, rose to 85.1% of GDP by June 2014 from 79.4% in December 2013, to a level that is nearly as high as a peak 85.6% in the middle of 2010. Significance: The government has always claimed that reducing the gove...
On The Verge of Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2014
In June, the IBC-Br, which is a proxy for monthly GDP calculated by the Central Bank, fell 1.5%. With this, the decline in the second quarter was 1.2%, and this is a good estimate of what the GDP figures will show for the quarter (Graph 1). Worse than the magnitude of the drop are its characteris...
Political Insights: Week of August 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2014
The elections enter a new phase with important events scheduled for this week.Free electoral ads on radio and TV begin on Tuesday, August 19. The following day, the PSB will confirm Marina Silva as Eduardo Campos’ replacement in the presidential race.President Dilma Rousseff and PSC candidate Pas...
An Urgent Search for Funds
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Aug 2014
Executive SummaryThe gauge in the Treasury’s coffers veered toward empty, with just $348 million in cash on average between January and May, down from $1.25 billion during the same period last year. Unsurprisingly, the government is aggressively campaigning to control liquidity. The new Monetary ...
Crunch time in Turkish politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2014
While Erdogan easily rode to the presidency on the back of a 51.8% majority, the task of transition and succession in the party is turning out to be more arduous. In this Brief, I’m updating my predictions for the new AKP chairman and key cabinet posts, while the Cosmic Dude barges in with his il...
The Road to the 2015 Elections
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2014
Executive Summary All political parties will be focusing their attention between now and next summer on the 2015 federal elections, in which all 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be up for election, as well as state and municipal offices in 15 states. The electoral calendar starts when el...
How to Raise the Minimum Wage
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2014
Executive Summary The country’s minimum wage has emerged as a major topic in the national political debate in recent days. Mexico is the only Latin American country in which the minimum wage is below the extreme poverty line, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbea...
CPI, GDP data: Too much of rain and a stronger than expected economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2014
Facts: 1. July CPI-inflation was 0.2% mom / 0.1% yoy, the latter up from -0.3% in June; 2. Q2 GDP (preliminary, sda) was up 0.8% qoq / 3.7% yoy, after 1.1% qoq / 3.2% yoy. Both CPI and GDP were somewhat stronger than expected. Significance: 1. Some say that the short period of negative inflation ...
A second term for the President?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Aug 2014
The Philippine Constitution prohibits it, which is why when the presumptive presidential candidate of the ruling Liberal Party, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, sent out the trial balloon last week, analysts quickly shot it down as the desperate idea of one receiving low ratings in presidential pref...
Ritornello
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Aug 2014
Ritornello: A recurrent musical section that alternates with different episodes of contrasting material. The repetition can be exact or varied to a greater or lesser extent. Encyclopedia Britannica. Here we are, writing about the exchange rate again. A window of opportunity for reform of the fore...
Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2014
The Impact of the Tragedy on the PSB Ticket Given that Marina Silva is Eduardo Campos’ natural successor, the main consequences of the tragedy that took the life of the PSB presidential candidate are the increased probability of the election going to a second round and the threat to Aécio Neves’ ...