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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Time to Move On
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Apr 2017

The gubernatorial election in Jakarta was accomplished peacefully. Police backed by the Army did a great job in defusing the mobilization of people from outside Jakarta who would have liked to oversee the election and indirectly might have intervened in the polling process. The quick count by all...

Lula’s electoral potential increases, the PSDB leads rejection and opens field for outsider candidates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2017 · 1 response

​Ibope released a poll to measure the electoral potential of possible pre-candidates in the 2018 presidential race. The poll was conducted on April 7-11, before the release of the content of the Odebrecht plea bargain deals.

OK given to an agreement between Odebretch and the Office of the General Attorney
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Apr 2017

In what can be interpreted as a victory for the government, yesterday a judge approved the terms of an agreement between Odebretch and the Office of the General Attorney through which the firm accepts to cooperate with the investigation on kickbacks on infrastructure projects and agrees to pay a ...

Hopes for Deliverance
CHILE · Report · 20 Apr 2017

The latest economic activity data are discouraging, with growth at only about 1% in February, and manufacturing production and real retail output negative, y/y. Though lending to the private sector rebounded in March, banks in Q1 saw a deterioration in the conditions for lending supply and demand...

Is the legitimacy debate relevant?
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Apr 2017

It is my duty to provide objective and relevant coverage of political events in Turkey. Objectively speaking, I see evidence serious enough to suggest that voting irregularities in the presidential referendum warrant a very serious probe. But, is the legitimacy of the ballot relevant? Could the o...

Central Bank set the budget deficit at 2.8% of GDP, 0.5 points above target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Apr 2017

The Central Bank has released its preliminary report of the performance of the economy of the Dominican Republic in 2016. Although figures for aggregate GDP growth, employment, inflation, external accounts and monetary aggregates are not different from what it has been made public before, the ban...

PM Orbán on a Collision Course with the EU
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2017

Following a relatively uneventful period in politics, PM Orbán has suddenly gotten onto a direct collision course with the EU, in addition to apparently alienating a large number of domestic intellectuals in recent weeks. This came after he launched an attack on civil organizations and the Centra...

El Salvador Misses April Payment of Pension Certificates
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 18 Apr 2017

The facts: on Friday April 7th, 2017, the government started to miss debt payments to the private pension funds (Certificados de Inversión Previsional through the trust fund for pensions created in 2006), to finance annual outlays of the PAYG system (currently close to $500 million yearly). By mi...

Early Spring Galvanization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2017

The largest street protests in five years took place in Moscow and almost one hundred other locations following Alexei Navalny’s Anticorruption Foundation’s publishing a report accusing Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev of corruption. Although the protests were curbed by the police, they played into...

Economic Recovery in Danger of Being Derailed by Political Turmoil
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Apr 2017

Summary and Assumptions: • South Africa’s Growth: Economic growth in South Africa for 2016 came at a post 2008/09 financial crisis low of 0.3%. Real growth however tuned negative during the last quarter of 2016 as it contracted by 0.3%, following a growth rate of 0.4% in the third quarter of 201...

A year of Groysman Cabinet: None is Ready to Change the Government
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Apr 2017

On Friday, April 14th there expired a year of immunity for the Cabinet of Volodymyr Groysman. Now the parliament will be evaluating Prime-Minister performance. Politicians, experts and journalists actively discuss achievements and failures of the Cabinet. General impression – the key political pl...

​Attention shifts from legitimacy to hawkish policies
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Apr 2017

CHP, HDP and at least two of the dissidents of nationalist MHP are lodging complaints about voting irregularities with the High Election Board (HEB). I hear a torrent of allegations about voter intimidation and wholesale theft or doctoring of votes, of which one sample is linked here but I’m unab...

Week of April 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2017

Another short week due to the Friday holiday (Tiradentes). The rapporteur of Pension Reform presents his report on Tuesday, April 18. Once again, the Lower House tries to vote on the bill on states’ debt. This week’s Talking Points: • The political impact of Fachin’s list • Temer’s reaction...

What’s Happening With Real Retail Sales?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2017

In February, the IBGE (national statistics office) estimates that real retail sales took a large step upward, but clarifies that this is due to a methodological revision, which is done periodically. Apparently, the increase cannot be interpreted as a trend change, but rather only a once and for a...

Country Overview
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 17 Apr 2017

Rising deficits and net debt-to-GDP demonstrate a deterioration of the fiscal situation, despite the recent tax reform and Ecopetrol profits. The government’s addition to the budget (7.7 trillion COP) underscores the need for increased revenue. The economy is slowing and inflation is declining, s...

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