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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Strong Contraction of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Since the level of nonperforming loans started to creep upward in late 2011-early 2012, private banks have been extremely cautious in extending new credit, both to consumers and companies. The most recent data indicate sharper contraction of non-earmarked credit and less impe...

A Bumpy Inflation Landscape
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Jun 2015

Headline inflation has accelerated from 4% year on year (y/y) in March 2015 to 4.6% y/y in May 2015. Producer price inflation for final manufactured goods increased significantly, to 3.6% y/y in May 2015 from 3.0% y/y recorded in April. Essentially, the trend in domestic inflation has reversed co...

Economics: Commodities, Forex and Inflation
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Over the past year raw material prices have experienced their sharpest contractions on an international level since the economic crisis of 2008-2009. The International Monetary Fund’s general index of raw material prices recorded a 31.9% decrease between June 2014 and May of thi...

Politics: Municipal Election Results
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jun 2015

Executive Summary In addition to electing a new Chamber of Deputies and nine state governors, on June 7 Mexican voters elected new authorities in slightly more than 1,000 municipalities. This election confirmed that a party’s victory in a gubernatorial contest is by no means a guarantee of carryi...

Another 15 bps cut by the MNB, further small reduction promised
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2015

The MNB reduced its base rate by 15 bps to 1.5% today, just as widely expected. Including this measure, the MNB has cut the base rate by a full 60 bps in equal steps over the past four months. The forint received this news quite negligently, hovering around EURHUF 310, which essentially represent...

The Current Account Deficit Remains in Place
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jun 2015

After having eased to 5.1% of the gross domestic product in Q4 2014, the deficit on the current account narrowed further, to 4.8% in Q1 2015 (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Current account balance, South Africa, 2010 Q1- 2015 Q1 Notes: (1) The data is seasonally adjusted and annualized.(2) Current account...

What Can We Learn From the Currency Defense of 2013
INDIA · Report · 23 Jun 2015

Executive Summary In 2013, at the time of Ben Bernanke’s “Taper Talk”, India mounted a currency defense to combat currency depreciation. It is useful to look back at this episode, in order to obtain insights into the workings of a currency defense. The authorities appeared to throw everything the...

MPC: All Hopes On Food Prices
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee left all key short-term rates unchanged as expected – one-week repo rate at 7.5% and the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 10.75% and 7.25%, respectively (see chart). The content of the statement on growth and the current account dynamics (the first econ paragraph o...

Warning: Polarization Ahead
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 23 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The political landscape has changed dramatically over the past three weeks, emerging from confusion to arrive at clarity: we now see that the country is headed toward political and electoral polarization. On one side are President Danilo Medina and his Partido de la Liberación D...

Concerns for 2016
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Q1 growth surpassed market expectations, but was in line with ours: the 2.8% rate DANE presented was well above the market’s 2.2%-2.4% prediction, but close to our 2.9% number. It’s in any case a good result, given trade shocks and the impacts of the international situation. Sti...

Part I: Has the recession which began in 2012 ended?
INDIA · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Changes in GDP estimation methodology have taken place, and the new GDP data shows a very rosy picture. However, we believe that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not yet ended. The methodological documents associated with the new GDP data show many improvements in method...

“I Don’t Believe in Bequests, For Either Family Or Businesses”
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary That was the thrust of President Rafael Correa’s statement, during a recent media appearance in Guayaquil, in response to Ecuadorians’ massive opposition to new bills that would sharply increase bequest and capital gains taxes. The country, led by Quito and Guayaquil, has been s...

Week of June 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2015

This promises to be one of the most politically intense weeks. The testimonies of 12 individuals arrested in the 14th Phase of the Lava Jato investigation will begin. Another item on the government’s positive agenda will be launched on Wednesday, June 24 – the National Export Plan. The Federal Re...

Qualitative Indicators of the Contraction of Investments
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jun 2015

The current recession differs from that in 2008-2009: it will be less severe but will last a good deal longer. The dip in the IBC-Br for April is an additional indicator that the contraction of GDP in the second quarter of 2015 will be more intense than in the first three months (Graph 1). There ...

Weekly Tracker: June 21-27
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the Turkish press is full of reports that an AKP-MHP coalition is imminent, statements by MHP leader Bahceli cause us to exercise much caution. An AKP-CHP coalition is also not too feasible, judging by the statements made by party spokespersons. Early elections still comma...

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