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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Opening Finance – the Right Way
CHINA · Report · 24 Nov 2017

Growth was relatively stable in October. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, almost the same as in previous months. Yet key growth drivers weakened. Fixed asset investment was up 5.8% y/y, slightly above the nadir, but lower than the investment price level. So real investment growth is still negat...

The Reserve Bank Treads with Caution as Credit Ratings and The ANC Elective Conference Approach
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Nov 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s Governor Lesetja Kganyago has announced that the Bank will be keeping the country’s repo rate at 6.75%, and hence the prime interest rate also remains at 10.25%. Headline CPI receded to 4.8% y/y in October 2017 (the same rate recorded in August 2017) following ...

China’s Financial Opening Opportunities in Bank Consolidation
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Nov 2017

China has agreed to open its banking sector to greater foreign ownership. This could signal an opportunity for foreign investors – depending, of course, on how serious Beijing is. There are many options for China entry for foreign institutions, from commercial lending, to securities transactions,...

MNB decision went in the expected direction, but it seems bigger than expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2017

The Monetary Council today made decisions which go in the direction of preliminary signals and market expectation, in so far as:- they left all interest rates unchanged; and- they introduced new non-conventional policies, just as they more or less had promised, and so the market had expected.Howe...

Recovery of Activity a Step at a Time
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2017

It has long been known that economic cycles are not like cycles in physic. No two economic cycles are alike, much less are the trajectories deterministic. Instead, the forces that determine the dynamics of a given episode can be less important in another, in which new forces also emerge. There ar...

Into The 4th Episode, Fasten Seat Belts
TURKEY · Report · 21 Nov 2017

The lira has been weakening sharply lately, having broken the previous peak in basket terms, which we had experienced during the so-called “Trump reflation trade” (Graph 1). The Bank has initiated (TL-settled) forward F/X auctions over the weekend. Before that, it tweaked ROCs with a view to prov...

Economics: Same Sort of Budget in 2018
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2017

There were no real surprises in the final version of the 2018 federal spending bill. In addition to the usual tweaks to budget assumptions regarding projected export oil prices and foreign exchange rates in order to anticipate greater revenues to fund spending next year, the most notable changes ...

Politics: Desolate Outlook for Mexican Police
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2017

In our new series on problems with security and the criminal justice system in Mexico, this week we take a broad look at police institutions at all three levels of government (federal, state and municipal). A lack of federal oversight and legislative gridlock have worsened the already deplorable ...

MNB Has Limited Scope for Further Loosening in November
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Nov 2017

Following S&P’s similar decision in late August, Fitch Ratings improved the outlook on its BBB- sovereign long-term debt rating to Positive from Stable in early November. Previously, Moody’s refrained from touching its own Baa3/Stable rating in late October. So Hungary has just won a 2-1 vote to ...

Elections in Chile: Shaking things up
CHILE · Report · 20 Nov 2017

Chile woke up on Monday trying to digest the results of a surprising congressional and presidential election. Following international trends, the polls, it seems, got it quite wrong. Although most expected the second round in the presidential race to include Sebastián Piñera and Alejandro Guillie...

Week of November 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Nov 2017

The government may announce changes to the ministerial team with the objective of obtaining the support to vote on Pension Reform. According to Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, this week will be decisive for the reform proposal. The rapporteur, Rep. Arthur Maia (PPS-BA) may present a new text...

An Eventful Week in South Africa and the Region
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 20 Nov 2017

This week is set to be a critical week for South Africa and the SADC (Southern African Development Community) region. Over the past few days, Zimbabwe has gone from a police-state dictatorship to a never-seen-before popular peaceful uprising, assisted by the national army, trying to push out Robe...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2017

Turko-American relationship is on the brink. There is very strong (though not conclusive)evidence that gold trader Mr. Reza Zarrab has decided to confess to charges of violating Iran sanctions, which might implicate some Turkish banks and members of AKP elite. AKP is furious, portraying the trial...

The rebound has begun
PERU · Forecast · 16 Nov 2017

Our latest base scenario is more upbeat. It expects the global economy to grow faster than 3.5% in coming years; for domestic conflicts to work themselves out; and for a more robust than expected domestic economic rebound from the damage caused by the El Niño and the Odebrecht shocks. Signific...

GDP Surprise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Nov 2017

3Q17 GDP raced past analysts’ expectations, growing 6.9% vs. the median 6.5% forecast. Credit goes to net exports which contributed 1.2ppt to GDP growth as export growth (17%) outpaced import growth (14%). In contrast to robust export performance, growth rates of domestic private demand, particul...

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