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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Long-term labor shortages continued to build up in Q3
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Oct 2017

What happened on the domestic labor market in Q3 2017 was nothing revolutionary in itself. However, it contributed to the revolutionary long-term process of shrinking unemployment and growing labor shortages, (not so much) indirectly leading to accelerating wage growth and (eventually) higher inf...

The first taste of the political year
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Oct 2017

Indonesian politics will be very busy in the presidential election year in 2019. The first taste of that political year was seen early, during the election for Governor of the Jakarta Metropolitan early this year. However, in 2018, Indonesian politics will be even busier, with a number of regiona...

Winter Has Come
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2017 · 1 response

Last month our Monthly heralded the approach of winter, the cold winds of which began blowing in October. Political conflicts with America and Germany-cum-EU are slowly boiling over to the economy. There is evidence that Turkish banking system might be the target of some type of sanctions, which ...

The Central bank expects IMF wire only in 2018
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2017

The Central bank reported that it expects next wire from the IMF only in 1Q 2018. It was mentioned at the press-release on the prime rate revision today. This is something new. Previously the authorities reassured that next wire will arrive by the end of 2017. The view has changed after recent vi...

The Central bank raises prime rate by 1 ppt up to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2017

The Central bank raised prime rate by 1 ppt up to 13.5% today. The last time prime rate was increased in March 2015. Fast CPI (+10.2% ytd for September), growing inflation expectations, risks related to increased pensions and mounting appreciation pressure made the Board of the Central bank tight...

Pension Reform depends on Temer, Maia & Centrão
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2017

Having defeated the second PGR accusation, President Michel Temer will have to negotiate with his coalition to approve fiscal austerity measures. By securing enough support to reject two accusations in the Lower House, Temer has evinced his ability to negotiate. However, it is clear that dialogue...

MPC Tweaks Words, Hopes It’ll Suffice
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2017

The CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept all short-term rates unchanged today (one-week repo rate at 8.0%, O/N lending and borrowing rates at 9.25% and 7.25%, respectively; and LLW rate at 12.25%; Graph 1). Although this is exactly what was being anticipated, the news flow in the past 24 h...

SA’s 2017 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Oct 2017 · 1 response

This year's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was delivered by Minister Gigaba yesterday. This was of particular interest for a variety reasons. Most importantly, this was Gigaba's maiden budget policy statement, an opportunity to assess his political economy stance. Minister Gigaba was...

Germany reported to attempt financial sanctions on Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2017

Dark clouds are gathering on Turkey’s financial system very quickly. I’ve reported last week that U.S. Treasury Department might be conducting a probe on several Turkish banks on suspicion of violating financial sanctions on Iran. On Wednesday, Bloomberg.com reported that Berlin is using its infl...

South Africa's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 25 Oct 2017

This year's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was delivered by Minister Gigaba earlier today. This was of particular interest for a variety reasons. Most importantly, this was Gigaba's maiden budget policy statement, an opportunity to assess his political economy stance. Minister Gigaba...

(Far Too Much) Optimism
CHILE · Report · 25 Oct 2017

September monthly inflation was the lowest for any September since 1928, and pushed annual inflation down to 1.5%. But this unusual figure can mostly be attributed to three specific effects, so there’s no true fall in inflationary pressures. The 12-month variation of core measures remained stable...

SA’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) Later Today
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Oct 2017

The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) is being delivered later today by the Finance Minister, Malusi Gigaba. A number of developments that affect (or could affect) the fiscus have taken place since the main budget was delivered during February 2017. Some of the more prominent events tha...

Temer Administration: A Step-by-Step Guide to the Temer Accusation Vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2017

​In the vote on the first accusation against President Michel Temer was concluded at 9:50pm. This time, aside from the President, two cabinet ministers also stand accused: Eliseu Padilha (Chief of Staff) and Moreira Franco (General Secretariat of the Presidency). Their lawyers will speak for 25 m...

Update on debt and liquidity
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

In the last 10 days, $3,200 million of new financing has reliefed the liquidity crisis of the public system. From these, $2,500 million of 10-year new bonds at 8.875% and an operation for $500 with Goldman Sachs with 35 months of maturity and at Libor + 4.75% will help the Ministry of Finance to ...

Real GDP growth rate for Jan-Aug 2017: 4%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 24 Oct 2017

Yesterday, the Central Bank released figures of GDP growth which confirm that the economy continues growing below its long term rate. The Economic Activity Monthly Index (IMAE for its Spanish acronym) for the period January-August was set at 4%. Although authorities are forecasting a real GDP gro...

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