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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Some Turkish banks are under U.S. Treasury investigation
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2017

Turkish markets made a poor start to the week, partly driven by Dollar Index strength, but definitely demoralized by the ongoing controversy over potential fines by the U. S. Department of Treasury to be levied on six Turkish banks. In particular the severe plunge in the banking index of the Ista...

Week of October 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2017

A decisive week for President Michel Temer – the Lower House votes on the second accusation presented by the PGR against him and two cabinet ministers. To vote in favor of the president, allies are presenting demands that range from the removal of the Congonhas (SP) airport from the concessions p...

What Do Economists and the Yield Curve Have to Say About the SELIC Rate?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Oct 2017

A broad consensus exists among economists about the future of monetary policy: the SELIC rate will fall to 7% in December (with an outside chance of one or two more cuts of 25 points) and stay at that level throughout 2018. But the picture painted by the yield curve is very different, “pricing in...

Economics: No Cataclysm if NAFTA dissolves
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2017 · 1 response

The fourth round of Nafta renegotiation talks proved to be the most acrimonious to date as the United States pressed ahead with proposals that Canada and Mexico have described as red lines that they will never agree to cross, and U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his disdain for, and willing...

Politics: Frente Ciudadano por México and Zavala’s Spoiler Potential
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2017

Margarita Zavala’s decision earlier this month to resign from the PAN and run for president as an independent marked a significant setback for the Citizens Front for Mexico (CFM), which has fallen into third place according to most surveys that have been made public. But we will have to wait...

The Indications from the Financial Stability Report
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Oct 2017

Recognition is practically unanimous in the financial market that the Brazilian economy has turned the corner and is now recovering, driven mainly by household consumption, in turn stimulated by the decline of the real interest rate and expansion of credit to households. However, even assuming a ...

Important snippets on today's national holiday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2017

Today is a national holiday in Hungary, the anniversary of the 1956 revolution and uprising against the Soviet rule. Markets are closed, but life goes on, as usual. Some recent and upcoming events may be important for investors, so let us look at them just briefly:1. Moody's had a revision date f...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2017

Sundays have become synonymous with the word “crisis” in Turkey. We start with unconfirmedand not too credible news of the U.S. State Department getting ready to levy fines on some Turkish banks for violating Iranian sanctions, which might disturb markets on Monday. At home, President Erdogan’...

Trying to please both God and the Devil
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2017

President Lenín Moreno’s position on the razor's edge is evidenced by his contradictory and mild decision making on important political and economic issues. The new economic program launched recently by Ministry of Finance Carlos de la Torre is no exception. Moreno’s effort to maintain his lef...

J&F’s future is in jeopardy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2017

A serious threat looms over the future of JBS, the largest meat producer in the world and a company controlled by the J&F group. The rescission of the plea bargain deal secured by Joesley Batista, a partner in the company, and Ricardo Saud, a high-ranking executive, is the main issue. Five other ...

Is the monetary bet going sour?
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Oct 2017

Much of market’s attention will be focused on this Sunday’s midterm elections and the likely political implications of the reshuffling in Congress, in particular, the new political balance ahead of the 2018 budget approval or the announced labor and tax reform. The electoral battle in the Provinc...

Chavismo’s electoral machinery in action
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Oct 2017

The unexpected outcome of the 15 October elections shows that Maduro’s government worked hard to raise chavismo’s political-electoral machinery to a new level and managed to have its base turn out almost entirely (30 percent of the voters) while at the same time hampering the opposition’s turnout...

Political protests: authorities play for time
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2017

My personal opinion – healthcare reform was a sacrifice to prevent revision of political rules of the game. When reformers had been celebrating approval of healthcare legislation, the authorities tried to derail process of implementing political demands. Firstly, the draft law, which cancels MPs ...

Healthcare reform approved
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2017

Yesterday, on October 19 parliament finally approved long-awaited healthcare reform. Frankly, I was skeptical about chances of this badly needed measure but probably protests on the streets sped up the process. Virtually, the reform has been curtailed for some critical features like official co-f...

ABS and Deleveraging in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Oct 2017

• Explosion in ABS. By the end of September, there were 1,129 ABS securities with an outstanding balance of Rmb1.5trn. Encouraged by government policies, we estimate ABS will grow by double digits through 2020. • Fiscal “Band-aid.” The central government has retreated from using fiscal resources...

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