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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

External Conditions Shift to Negative
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Feb 2017

El Salvador closed 2016 with negative inflation, a first at yearend since 1999 (-0.9% y/y). Estimates of last year’s economic growth are controversial. The official figure of 2.5% y/y is considered optimistic by private sector representatives and analysts, and by international organizations like ...

Mind The Gap
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2017

Fiscal results for 2016 presented few surprises aside from a slight increase in the deficit, relative to the forecast. What was surprising was an increase in income tax collection, which outperformed the COP 1.6 trillion target. But VAT collection underperformed by COP 3.4 trillion. GDP also unde...

Trade Uncertainties Ahead
CHINA · Report · 01 Feb 2017

The economy in 2016 displayed completely new characteristics. On the one hand, real estate and automobile consumption recovered strongly, and M1 grew rapidly. Producer prices rebounded, to positive territory. On the other hand, quarterly GDP growth rates were almost flat all year. It seems that ...

Banking cash transaction tax seems to be happening
INDIA · In Brief · 31 Jan 2017

A slip up in the computer systems by the income tax department shows that some sort of banking cash transaction tax ("BCTT") is likely to be announced in the budget speech today. This was invented by the UPA in 2005, and abandoned by them in 2009. Their formulation had a tax of 0.1% on cash withd...

The fear of tighter financial conditions will encourage better post-election economic policies
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 31 Jan 2017 · 2 responses

The appointment of Nicolas Dujovne to replace Alfonso Prat Gay as Minister of the Treasury does not signal a fundamental change in economic policy. But it looks like the new minister will put more emphasis on fiscal consolidation and will draft a tax reform to be implemented in 2018. Dujovne w...

Pdvsa In The News
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 31 Jan 2017 · 1 response

Pdvsa’s new board, announced on January 29, confirms loyalty as Maduro’s key driver. The board replicates his cabinet’s civic-military structure, comprising civilian loyalists and military officials chosen among his closest allies in the military world. This indicates that the struggle for succes...

Odebrecht Bribery Scandal Shakes Government and Society
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 31 Jan 2017

The revelations from the Lava Jato investigations in Brazil, and from a U.S. Department of Justice investigation into illegal practices of Brazilian companies, are shaking the continent, and the Dominican Republic, too. The hottest topic is an extensive bribery scheme that the Odebrecht construct...

New offensive in Donbas: 7 soldiers killed, Avdiyivka metallurgical coke plant stops operating
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jan 2017 · 9 responses

Over the last few days Russians and separatists unfolded heavy attacks on Ukrainian positions. Officials reported 7 Ukrainian soldiers killed. Yesterday Avdiyivka metallurgical coke plant (belongs to Rinat Akhmetov) was seriously damaged with shelling and was finally stopped. The total town of Av...

Week of January 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2017

Congress and the STF resume activity this week. The presidents of the Lower House and Senate will be elected, along with elections for other important posts in both houses. The Supreme Court may decide on the rapporteur for the Lava Jato case, to replace Teori Zavascki. The government may send La...

The politics of China’s economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Jan 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The most important event in 2017 is the Party Congress that will be held towards the end of this year, in which a large number of the top leadership will be retired or promoted. Any useful analysis of the Chinese economy must begin with the political ...

New priorities and dialogue opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2017

With the threat of a recall vote out of the way but the risk of complete social breakdown high, Nicolás Maduro is trying to impose order, stabilize the economy, and recover popular support in anticipation of elections the regime will have to submit to sooner or later. A new identity card will hel...

What Can be Expected Regarding the Behavior of Credit?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jan 2017

Although further contraction of GDP in the first quarter cannot be discarded, there are already clear signs that the economy is ready to start a period of recovery. The continuity of the reforms and indications that the monetary easing will be intense have improved the risk perceptions and streng...

Volunteering squads block trading with occupied territories
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jan 2017

Last week volunteering squads started trade blockade of occupied territories of Eastern Donbas. Unlike previous efforts this time it looks like the story might be much more serious. The point is that new effort to stop trading with Eastern Donbas was undertook amid growing irritation about huge h...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jan 2017 · 1 response

Because CHP appealed to the Constitutional Court to have the constitutional reform bill declared null and void, the date for the referendum is still not certain. However, AKP is running scared, as even its constituency is having doubts about the wisdom of an executive presidency. Latest poll data...

The Central bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 14%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2017

Today the Board of Directors of the Central bank decided to keep policy rate unchanged at 14%. Inflation threats related to doubled minimum wages as well as recent volatility at the FX market stand behind such a decision. Given that prices indeed will speed up over the upcoming weeks (we already ...

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