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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 29
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Brazil Economics databank Aug 18
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Central America databank Aug 27
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Chile databank Aug 26
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Aug 25
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 29
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Hungary databank Aug 19
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Aug 14
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South Africa databank Aug 21
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Sep 2
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: BRAZIL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Pension reform approved in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jul 2017
Today Ukrainian parliament approved pension reform bill in first reading. Put it different MPs accepted the idea of pension reform in general but details will be under revision. Among points that Minister of social policy Andriy Reva promised to consider for the second round are pension fund audi...
Government on the Defensive Over Corruption
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Jul 2017
Economic activity is slowing, according to official data. Between January and May, growth was up 4.2% from the same period in 2016, and up 5.2% between January and March. Inflation continues to be low. In May, the CPI shrank 0.14%, bringing accumulated ytd inflation to 0.96%, and annualized infla...
Lula Convicted – Step by step
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2017
Judge Sérgio Moro has convicted former president Lula, sentencing him to 9.5 years of imprisonment. According to Moro, Lula received R$ 3.7 million in bribes from OAS. The former president will be able to appeal the decision. Lula will only be arrested if convicted by the higher court.
Politics: Public Distrust Ahead of 2018 Vote
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2017
As we continue to analyze the results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey on governability and electoral preferences, we see little very little movement in citizen perceptions of the country's situation, the evaluation of President Peña Nieto's administration, or the mood of the country. R...
Economics: Yield Curve Becomes Inverted
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2017
Mexico’s interest rate yield curves in recent weeks have reached levels that are not consistent with the expected evolution of macroeconomic variables. This week’s Economic Outlook analyzes the government securities yield curve. Last week’s National Consumer Price Index report revealed that p...
June was just another month with rising core inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jul 2017
With little exaggeration, reports on new inflation data releases could now be easily copy/pasted from one month to the other, given that the basic trend shows no change, only the specific values are getting somewhat higher on each occasion. Regarding the June data, the headline CPI-inflation rate...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jul 2017
The country’s political scenario is still uncertain and filled with risks. Targeted by a denunciation of passive corruption and politically mutilated by the devastating conversation with Joesley Batista, President Temer has channeled all his efforts into producing a legal defense that can convinc...
Why do Chinese borrowers like risky structures?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 10 Jul 2017
Special points to highlight in this issue: • Roughly two-thirds of all the outstanding putable bonds in the world, according to Fitch Ratings, were issued by Chinese corporations. Historical precedents suggest that the popularity of this type of structure in China almost certainly reflects diff...
Arko Poll: Lower House divided on authorization to investigate the President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2017 · 1 response
• Congressional representatives are divided on the accusation against President Michel Temer: 36.90% think the Lower House will not authorize the accusation; 33.69% think the contrary; • Most want the legislative recess to occur; • Forty-five percent (45.45%) think the coalition is willing to r...
Week of July 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2017
The Constitution and Justice Committee of the Lower House may vote on the report by Rep. Sérgio Zveiter on the accusation against Michel Temer; the government is working to conclude analysis by the Lower House in the next few days. On Wednesday, July 12, Congress will try to vote on the Budget Gu...
What has changed?
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2017 · 2 responses
Moving Leopoldo López from a military prison to house arrest was a unilateral move by Maduro’s government seeking to reinforce its National Constituent Assembly (ANC) initiative. The ANC hasn’t gained legitimacy and provides common ground to the opposition and “original” chavismo in opposing the ...
An Intense Monetary Easing Will Continue
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2017
With the start of the political crisis, it soon became apparent that from the standpoint of inflation two forces acting in opposite directions had been generated. By retarding resumption of growth, the crisis would accentuate disinflation, but by raising the risks and thus discouraging the capita...
Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jul 2017
The politics section of the Weekly has been penned before Kilicdaroglu’s justice rally in Istanbul, which is expected to proceed without a major security incident. The first section assesses whether his 450 km march from Ankara to Istanbul could alter the political equilibrium in the country. The...
Monthly inflation exceeds 20 percent
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Jul 2017
We revised down our June month-on-month inflation rate estimate to 23 percent (from 26 percent in our previous report) reflecting the decline in prices of a group of agricultural foods. We forecast a slight acceleration to 24 percent in July. Accumulated inflation for the first seven months of th...
Economic Recovery was Indeed Derailed and Confidence Remains Low
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 07 Jul 2017
• South Africa’s Growth: Economic Growth was more than disappointing during the first quarter of 2017 as GDP contracted by 0.7% following a prior contraction of 0.3% in the final quarter of 2016. This means South Africa entered into a technical recession during the first quarter of 2017, the firs...