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Politics in a Time of Stagflation
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2015

Executive Summary A nation-wide blackout combined with two DHKP-C terror attacks inspired theories of “powers that be” that are trying to destabilize Turkey at the eve of general elections. We don’t subscribe to these theories, but won’t rule out Assad and Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency as...

Food and I: No Room for Complacency
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2015

March CPI inflation came in markedly worse than expected (1.2% vs. 0.9%), lifting the 12-month rate slightly to 7.6%, but – once again – that is because of a pretty bad food inflation print.The 12-month PPI inflation edged up a little, albeit from a low base. Core inflation – as measured by the m...

Recovery or Wishful-thinking?
CHILE · Forecast · 02 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The economy continues on a slow recovery path. GDP data released this month shows that the second half of 2014 was better than the first. Consumption decelerated, but overall it has been more stable than investment. Consumption has been helped by low interest rates, low unemp...

Dominican Rep 2014 NFPS deficit closed at 2.5% of GDP; lower than expected
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Mar 2015 · 5 responses

Official figures from the Ministry of Finance revealed that total deficit of the Non-Financial Public Sector for 2014 was lower than programmed in the budget. The Accounting Directorate of the Ministry reported that the deficit closed at DOP 70.5 bn equivalent to 2.5% of GDP; that is DOP 7.2 bn (...

The Problem is Economic, but the Solution is Political
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The primary surplus targets of 1.2% of GDP for 2015 and 2% for 2016 are welcome, but will only lead to a drop in the debt/GDP ratio if microeconomic reforms are carried out that boost economic growth and create conditions for a decline in the real interest rate. S&P has given...

2016: Two (very) different paths lie ahead
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Whoever runs the economy in the years to come will have to achieve, sooner or later, a balanced budget over the economic cycle (at least on average), a unified and free foreign exchange market with no restrictions on capital flows, foreign trade limited only by tariffs approved ...

Challenging Times
UKRAINE · Forecast · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary “Debt operations,” an overly optimistic spending plan, tough reforms, the threat emanating from the east and intensified infighting between various Ukrainian factions are all part of Ukraine’s new reality. While these things don’t stoke optimism, there are nonetheless positive d...

Growth: Stocks Save the Headline in Q4
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2015

GDP growth came in at 2.6%, y/y, in Q4, somewhat better than both the consensus forecast and our expectation, but the forecast slippage -- as far as ours is concerned -- largely stems from stock build-up.As expected, growth momentum otherwise remains weak. The demand composition was exactly as we...

The Aftertaste of Debt is Gradually Turning Bitter
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

The rising likelihood of an increase in US interest rates is inducing an economic policy headache in South Africa. In view of this, a backdrop would be handy before we carry on. The South African economy is performing well below potential. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fu...

White House Sanctions Could Help Maduro
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Executive SummaryPresident Obama’s executive order targeting Venezuelan officials linked to human rights violations has boosted Maduro’s government in the immediate term. Maduro declared the country at risk of being invaded and stirred support at home and abroad. At home, Maduro now has decree po...

GDP in 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2015

GDP grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014, or an annualized rate of 1.3% (Graph 1). For the year as a whole, growth was only 0.1%, far short of the 2.7% figure in 2013. All sectors of the Brazilian economy performed worse in 2014 than in 2013, clearly showing the economy’s loss of dynamism. ...

GUATEMALA: LIDER’S Baldizon Favored in September Race
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Executive Summary We expect economic calm in Guatemala this year, with a growth forecast of about 4%, and inflation low, at about 3.5%. External accounts will benefit from oil price decline and the increase in rates of private remittances, and the current account deficit will decline.Public finan...

Tug of War Over Jakarta’s Budget
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Jakarta, as the capital of the country, carries significant weight in the economic and political development of the country. At a time when the provincial governments are contributing a substantial amount of the country’s economic growth, developments in Jakarta are a crucial...

Week of March 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Despite the holiday on Friday, April 3, this will be a busy week. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy goes to the Senate to defend the fiscal austerity measures. The same day, the Senate will vote on a bill on the renegotiation of state debt. The House could vote urgency for the bill that revokes the s...

Weekly Tracker: Mar 29-Apr 4
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2015

Executive Summary We combine this week’s politics and markets sections, to present three election scenarios and their market implications. We think these scenarios are fairly robust to the passage of time, even though there is still 9 weeks to go before the poll date of June 7th. With the excepti...

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