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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

CPI Sharply Jumps on Food, Tobacco
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2016

​Consumer price inflation surprised sharply on the upside in July, coming in at 1.2%, raising the 12-month rate markedly higher to 8.8% from 7.6% in June. Some one percentage point (pp) of the total 1.2 pp increase in the 12-month rate was driven by food and tobacco sub-categories, which contribu...

Economic Activity Slows in July; Possible Consequences of a Trump Victory for Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 02 Aug 2016

Broad readings of economic activity released last month pointed to a significant slowing even in the services and commercial sector, which has long served as the economy’s main growth driver. The monthly GDP proxy showed the economy growing at a subpar 12-month rate of 1.9% in May as opposed ...

Industrial production, retail sales and labor market
CHILE · Report · 02 Aug 2016

The June figures released by the National Institute of Statistics are coherent with an economy that continued in hibernation. Beyond the usual volatility, base effects and the effects of inflation fluctuations on the real numbers, these indicators are flat so far this year.

The recall moves forward
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Aug 2016 · 2 responses

On August 1, nearly three weeks after the deadline, Tibisay Lucena, president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), announced that the MUD succeeded in gathering the "expressions of will” required to qualify as applicant for a recall referendum (1 percent of the voter registry in each state). ...

Tax Amnesty Euphoria
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Aug 2016

With the enactment of the Tax Amnesty Law, the month of July can be considered a historic month for fiscal policy. The law was developed by the Ministry of Finance, especially by the Directorate General of Tax, with the full support of the Association of the Employers (APINDO). The enactment of t...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Aug 2016

The month of August starts with the perspective that Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment will be approved by the Senate without surprises, ending Michel Temer’s interim status. This event is partly incorporated in the scenario used by the markets, and the expectation is that afterward the President will...

Unleashing repressed inflation feeds inertial inflation and delays recovery
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 01 Aug 2016

Macri’s government inherited an economy with large macroeconomic disequilibria and extreme relative price misalignments. The disequilibria and misalignments created by capital and price controls and inefficient regulations distorted the functioning of most markets for goods and services. The n...

Week of August 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2016

Congress and the Superior Courts return to work. In the House, the priority is to vote on the bill that deals with the renegotiation of state debt with the Federal government. In the Senate, the highlight is the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. The Special Committee will vote on the repor...

What Can Be Expected for Household Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Aug 2016

The signs that the recession is reaching the end are becoming clearer. Our leading indicator, which combines indicators from the international and domestic economies, points to an end in the third quarter this year. The unanimous recovery of the confidence indicators produced by FGV strengthens t...

Weekly Macro Highlights and outlook
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Aug 2016

Full employment likely to support wage pressure The labor market in Israel is rapidly tightening, supporting wage pressure.Unemployment declined to 4.8% in Q216.For the 25-64 age group unemployment declined to 4.0% in Q216 from 4.5% in Q1.In June, unemployment declined further to 3.9%.Job growth ...

Weathering the Storm
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jul 2016

The July rituals mark the beginning of the new season of congressional sessions. Out of the many initiatives presented to Congress for approval, the two fundamental narratives of the current legislative period, running from July 20th 2016 to June 20th 2017, are the approval of a legal peace agree...

The Morning After: The Panama Papers, the Waked Affair and the Challenges to the Banking Sector
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jul 2016

The Monthly Economic Activity Index climbed by a surprising 5.2% y/y in May, and 4.2% for the first five months of the year, compared with the same period in 2015. That’s good news, coming on the heels of the Panama Papers and Waked Affair scandals, though the IMAE continues to show a persistent ...

Turkey at a Crossroads
TURKEY · Forecast · 31 Jul 2016

Any seasoned observer of Turkey’s economy and politics would make a mockery of our title, but this time it seems for real. Following this month’s unsuccessful coup attempt, which was thwarted by an impressively unified response from a coalition of forces -- the government, the opposition, securit...

Car manufacturing: good news and bad news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2016

Yesterday, the local media was flooded by news and instant analysis on Mercedes' freshly announced plans to build a €1bn worth of new production complex at Kecskemét (South-Eastern Hungary). The new factory is intended to include car body production and painting units, in addition to an assembly ...

What kinds of reforms?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The orthodox macroeconomic model, which dominates mainstream thinking about China, implicitly assumes that the main determinant of economic growth is the mix of a country’s assets – not just capital assets but also other, less tangible assets such a...

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