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Weekly Tracker: Mar 29-Apr 4
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2015

Executive Summary We combine this week’s politics and markets sections, to present three election scenarios and their market implications. We think these scenarios are fairly robust to the passage of time, even though there is still 9 weeks to go before the poll date of June 7th. With the excepti...

Fiscal Adjustment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2015

Commissions define public hearingsThe Joint Commissions to discuss the provisional measures for the fiscal adjustment established a work chronology.The commission analyzing Provisional Measure (MP 665/14), which hinders access to unemployment insurance, among other changes in labor rights, will h...

The Inflation Outlook Glass is Indeed Half Empty
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Mar 2015

Today, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.75% per annum, citing deteriorated inflationary prospects. Granted, the headline inflation rate has moderated significantly over the past months, from 5.9% year-on-year (y/y...

A strange MNB base rate cut: monetary conditions have tightened substantially
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2015

As reported on the screens, the MNB reduced its base rate by 15 bps to 1.95% yesterday, against the average market expectation of a 20bps rate cut (which we shared). In addition, they presented a new inflation report, which is markedly more optimistic than the previous one.The MNB now expects 0% ...

Government Aims for 7% Growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced in an address to Congress on March 4th that China was aiming for growth of about 7% for 2015. And he stated that more structural reform would be needed going forward. The economy continued to slow in January and February. Industrial outp...

Hold, hike or cut?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 25 Mar 2015

It is a foregone conclusion that Thursday’s meeting of the Monetary Board of the BSP will see policy rates on hold.What divides market players is whether policy rates will remain steady for the rest of the year, or whether hikes or cuts are in store. The April issue of Focus Economics shows that ...

Answers to Reader Questions
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2015 · 1 response

Dear Readers, I’m still convalescing, which regrettably meant that some of your questions went unanswered for more than 24 hours. I thought it would be a neat idea to answer them together so all our readers can benefit. Since I didn’t ask for permission, the names of the submitters shall remain a...

Post-Bonanza Living
COLOMBIA · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The economy slowed in Q4, with GDP at 3.5% falling short of the government’s 3.8% projection. That took 2014 growth down to 4.6%, from 4.9% in 2013. The main activity drivers continued to be construction (up 5.9%) and commerce (4.5%), followed by government expenditure (social s...

Political Scenarios
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2015

CNT/MDA poll confirms President Dilma´s loss of popularity The CNT/MDA poll released yesterday, March 23, has confirmed the negative popularity scenario currently being experienced by President Dilma Rousseff. Her governance is perceived as “excellent” by only 11% of those interviewed, while 65% ...

Capacity To Pay Debt Tightening While Willingness To Pay Goes Up
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Around 100,000 people from all sectors of the economy marched last Thursday to protest against the draconian import taxes recently imposed by the government to control the balance of trade deficit.However, this was not the only claim.The arrogance of the regime, the attacks to f...

Politics: Shift in Polls Suggest Tightening Race
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The latest GEA-ISA polling results point to a scenario quite different from that observed in September of last year, when the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) enjoyed an edge of three to one over its closest competitor, the National Action Party (PAN), and what ...

Economics: Reform Benefits Start to Kick In
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Mexico’s federal government reported in recent days on the progress that has been achieved to date in relation to the structural reforms that Mexico has adopted since 2012. Significant movement has been recorded in relation to energy, financial telecommunications and labor refor...

Poroshenko vs. Kolomoyskiy: intensified confrontation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Mar 2015

Over the last few days in Ukraine intensified conflict between President Petro Poroshenko and Dnipropetrovsk oblast governor Igor Kolomoyskiy. The point is that the authorities finally dared to overtook control over two state companies (Uktransnafta (oil transit) and Ukrnafta (oil and gas extract...

What’s Been Happening with the Exchange Rate Pass-through to Inflation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Mar 2015

Nobody doubts that inflation this year will be very high, with the consensus projections now approaching 8%, even with the expectation that the deceleration of economic activity (already starting to be reflected in the unemployment rate) will reduce real wages and slow growth of service prices.

Week of March 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2015

Another presidential popularity poll (CNI/Ibope) may be released. In the economy, we highlight the release of the 2014 GDP. Central Bank President Alexandre Tombini speaks in the Senate on the economic environment, and the committees in charge of the fiscal austerity packages define a work schedu...

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