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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Concerns for 2016
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Q1 growth surpassed market expectations, but was in line with ours: the 2.8% rate DANE presented was well above the market’s 2.2%-2.4% prediction, but close to our 2.9% number. It’s in any case a good result, given trade shocks and the impacts of the international situation. Sti...

Part I: Has the recession which began in 2012 ended?
INDIA · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Changes in GDP estimation methodology have taken place, and the new GDP data shows a very rosy picture. However, we believe that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not yet ended. The methodological documents associated with the new GDP data show many improvements in method...

“I Don’t Believe in Bequests, For Either Family Or Businesses”
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Jun 2015

Executive Summary That was the thrust of President Rafael Correa’s statement, during a recent media appearance in Guayaquil, in response to Ecuadorians’ massive opposition to new bills that would sharply increase bequest and capital gains taxes. The country, led by Quito and Guayaquil, has been s...

Week of June 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2015

This promises to be one of the most politically intense weeks. The testimonies of 12 individuals arrested in the 14th Phase of the Lava Jato investigation will begin. Another item on the government’s positive agenda will be launched on Wednesday, June 24 – the National Export Plan. The Federal Re...

Qualitative Indicators of the Contraction of Investments
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jun 2015

The current recession differs from that in 2008-2009: it will be less severe but will last a good deal longer. The dip in the IBC-Br for April is an additional indicator that the contraction of GDP in the second quarter of 2015 will be more intense than in the first three months (Graph 1). There ...

Weekly Tracker: June 21-27
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the Turkish press is full of reports that an AKP-MHP coalition is imminent, statements by MHP leader Bahceli cause us to exercise much caution. An AKP-CHP coalition is also not too feasible, judging by the statements made by party spokespersons. Early elections still comma...

​Ukraine to keep paying on debts, Jaresko said
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jun 2015

On June 22nd Ukraine will pay $73.3 million of interest to Russia on $3 billion Eurobonds, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said today during briefing. In fact, this payment was the main intrigue after the IMF agreed to finance Ukraine disregard potential problems with debt servicing. As we wrote...

Stock Market Boom Amid a Down Economy
CHINA · Report · 19 Jun 2015

Executive Summary We believe the growth slowdown has already bottomed out, and think growth will slowly rebound from here. Fixed asset investment rose 10% y/y in May, up 0.6 pps from April, while value added for major industrial firms rose 6.1% y/y, up 0.5 pps from its lowest level in March. Reta...

Will Mr. Roxas run?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Jun 2015

In past weeks, a number of aspiring Presidential candidates have visibly stepped up their game in apparent efforts to influence survey numbers. Today, one of the leading pollsters, Pulse Asia, released the results of its much-awaited June 2015 survey showing very interesting results to the questi...

Economics: Snapshot by State
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The economies of each of Mexico’s 32 states developed in 2014 in a context of moderate GDP growth nationally, as the country’s GDP expanded by a mere 2.1%, which at least marked an improvement over its 2013 performance. The main drivers of the national economy last year were man...

Politics: Congressional Election Results
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Although the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) experienced a net loss of votes compared to past elections and obtained only 29.2% of the vote, that proved to be enough to win 176, or slightly more than 60% of the 300 single member, relative majority districts. Th...

Bahceli shuts the door to AKP and CHP
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2015

In Turkey’s political pundit community I am be alone in relying almost exclusively on public statements by party authorities, while others prefer divining ulterior motives and listening to Ankara rumors. According to my unique method, early elections suddenly came to outrank both AKP and CHP led ...

Fiscal Adjustment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jun 2015

TCU will postpone trial of government accounts The TCU (Federal Court of Accounts) will wait one month for President Dilma Rousseff to provide clarification in writing on the accounting maneuvers used to balance her government accounts in 2014. Only after this formality is completed will the cour...

Confidence under Strain
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Despite some outbursts of optimism, confidence among businesses and consumers in the South African economy remains by and large depressed. On a combined basis, this has largely been the case since 2012. Under this regime, growth prospects for South Africa are uninspiring. The prevailing state of ...

​More questions about Turkey’s politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2015

Once again I want to use the opportunity of astute questions asked by a reader to share my views with the entire readership. As usual the name of the inquirer shall remain anonymous. · Can the president block formation of a non-AKP minority government easily, even if AKP does not have enough vote...

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