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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Benchmark Interest Rate Rises for the Second Time in 2015
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Nov 2015

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the country’s benchmark interest rate – the repo rate – from 6.0% to 6.25% at its November 2015 meeting. Four of the six members voted for an increase. Today was the second time the MPC increased the repo ra...

General government budget was indeed almost balanced in Q1-Q3
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Nov 2015

Earlier this week, we said in our November report that based on cash budget data, the central government budget must have been roughly balanced in ESA2010 terms in January-October, implying much tighter fiscal policy so far this year than required by the 2.4% of GDP annual deficit target. Since t...

Economics: No Foreseeable Lid on the Debt
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2015

Now that the lower chamber of Congress has approved next year’s revenue and spending budgets it is time to take a look at how the public debt and budget deficit are likely to evolve in the coming years. The risks may prove considerable at a time of depressed petroleum revenues and rising debt cos...

Politics: Cannabis Left In Legal Limbo
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2015

Early this month Mexico’s highest court took an initial and decisive step toward ending the ban on the production and consumption of cannabis for recreational purposes by upholding the rights of four plaintiffs to produce it for their own consumption. This decision does not constitute what in com...

Who gets to make money and for how long?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Nov 2015

Last Thursday China Shanshui Cement Group announced its default on RMB 2 billion of loans. As of this writing it isn’t clear whether or not lenders will be forced to absorb losses but I suspect that the default will be resolved by shareholders. For much of this year credit spreads have c...

A Balanced Presidential Debate
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Nov 2015

Yesterday’s presidential debate between Scioli and Macri ended up being relatively balanced, even though online polls indicate a favorable bias in favor of the opposition candidate. The debate is therefore unlikely to have generated a land-slide shift in voter’s preferences, leaving the impressio...

The MNB Is Active Again
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Nov 2015

GDP growth fell to 2.2% y/y/sda in Q3, continuing its slide. This means downward convergence to the sluggishness of the Eurozone, and to far below the growth rates of other EU CEE members. GDP growth came in even below market expectations. But we still expect 2.4% growth for full year 2015. A ...

Week of November 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2015

The government will face a big challenge this week with votes on the presidential vetoes in Congress. The 2016 LDO is also on the agenda, which sets the surplus goal at R$ 43.8 billion. This is an important week for Rep. Eduardo Cunha: The rapporteur of the case against him in the Ethics Council ...

Where is Consumption Headed
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2015

Real retail sales declined again in September, meaning three straight quarters of contracting household consumption (Graph 1). More important than this, however, is the absence of any signs of reversal of this behavior.

Weekly Tracker: November 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Nov 2015

The new cabinet is expected to be announced this week, when we shall get to see who’ll be in charge of the economy and/or what the new division of labor will be in the management of the economy. Yet, it will probably take a lot longer to get a clear picture on the more important issues like the e...

A Political Earthquake in the Making
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 13 Nov 2015

An unexpected political earthquake shook the country on October 25. First, Daniel Scioli beat Mauricio Macri by less than 3 percentage points when most opinion polls had anticipated a gap of nearly 10 percentage points between Scioli and Macri, the new frontrunner. Second but not least, María Eug...

Economics: Prem. 3Q GDP Tells a Familiar Story
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2015

The Estimate of Quarterly GDP for the third quarter, published recently by the National Statistics Office (Inegi), showed 2.4% growth compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The expansion was driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in primary activities and 2.9% growth in those of the tertiary s...

Politics: A Tale of Four State Elections (III)
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2015

With this issue we conclude our initial analysis of the states that will hold gubernatorial elections in 2016. This week we offer a preview of four states that have had at least two experiences with alternation in power: Chihuahua, Aguascalientes, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas. Following seven decades i...

October CPI data: no surprise, firmly on upward trend on excluding-fuel-prices basis
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2015

Believe it or not, we finally scored on a monthly CPI forecast, expecting exactly the actual 0.2% mom, 0.1% yoy for October. The yoy rate was up from September's -0.4%. Fuel prices, which moved around the overall CPI quite erratically in recent months, fell further by 1.7% mom, but in yoy terms t...

A New War to Fight
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2015

Russia’s engagement in Syria gives it a first-mover advantage in terms of global political bargaining. However, in order to use this chip, Moscow needs a successful outcome from the operation because leaving Syria without a success could damage the leadership’s reputation. That puts the Kremlin i...

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