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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Crisis and Loss of Degrees of Freedom in Conducting Economic Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Aug 2015

Against the backdrop of stagflation and a politically weak government, the Central Bank is facing two challenges. The first is the need to keep interest rates high for longer, even in face of the deepening recession, which raises the political pressures for easing. The second is the task of absor...

South African Economy: The China Effect
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Aug 2015

As a member of the “fragile five”, South Africa was hit hard by the global financial vortex that engulfed the markets this week. Its currency was hardest hit, and the Johannesburg stock exchange lost over 7% of its market cap. The global turmoil coincided with a raft of other negative indicators:...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Aug 2015

All available indicators show the economy has been decelerating drastically, and the government, politically fragile, has little maneuvering room to try to reverse this trajectory. The economic crisis, political crisis and revelations from the Lava Jato investigation have not yet peaked, meaning ...

Politics: Crime on the Rise in Capital
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

Executive Summary The analyses of public security issues GEA conducts for Weekly Trends: Mexico Politics are generally made of nationwide crime data, but this time we are narrowing our focus to the Federal District because of its economic and political weight, its record in building a successful ...

Lowering growth forecasts
PHILIPPINES · Report · 27 Aug 2015

We are downgrading our GDP forecasts to 5.7% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016 (from 6.1% and 6.5%, respectively[1]). The revisions reflect both the just released GDP numbers, which show moderate 1H15 growth of 5.3% (see Box), and expected crop losses from a strengthening El Niño. Our revised forecasts im...

Economics: New China Model’s Mexico Effect
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

To the already extensive list of negative factors of international origin adversely affecting the Mexican economy over the past ten months (plunging prices for oil and other locally produced commodities, uncertainty regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve’s long awaited interest rate liftoff,...

From False Dawn to Sunset?
CHILE · Report · 27 Aug 2015

The Chilean peso is fifth among the emerging market currencies that fell the most in 2015. We can divide this currency slump into two periods with different drivers and implications. The first is the period in which the US dollar appreciated vis-à-vis almost every currency in the world, and the s...

Restructuring deal: four years’ maturity extension, 7.75 flat coupon rate, 20% haircut
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Aug 2015 · 2 responses

Yesterday Ad Hoc creditors’ committee agreed for $18.0 billion Ukrainian debt restructuring. The agreement does not include loans of state-owned entities with sovereign guarantee, City of Kyiv Eurobonds and Ukrzaliznytsia Eurobonds. The deal presumes 20% haircut. Current Eurobonds will be exchang...

Debt restructuring results might be announced today
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Aug 2015

Media have been circulating message that Prime-minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk plans to announce some positive news today at 12:00 Kyiv time. In fact it is not a big secret that this news will be about debt restructuring. We do not know parameters of the agreement but, apparently, the agreement was re...

Robust Growth and Low Inflation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 26 Aug 2015

Growth was strong and inflation muted in H1, with GDP growth estimated at 6.4%, and accumulated inflation reaching just 0.64%. Low inflation resulted from lower oil prices, which drove down transportation prices -- but reduced pressure on the currency was a secondary factor. We expect an incre...

Yuan Drop is a Correction
CHINA · Report · 26 Aug 2015

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment increased 10.3% y/y in real terms in July, and industrial output rose 6% y/y. Both key indicators were lower than in previous months. Although a month’s slowdown doesn’t suggest a recovery falloff, there are potential risks. The government needs to ease...

First predictions on new election results
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Aug 2015 · 1 response

First predictions on new election results It is official. Turkey will be heading for the ballot box on 1st of November, under the premiership of Prof Davutoglu, who is expected to announce his Election Government Cabinet on Friday. He is extending offers to CHP, MHP and HDP, but the first two wil...

GDP Growth Takes a Hit
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Aug 2015

Real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices decreased by 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the second quarter of 2015 according to official figures reported by Statistics South Africa. This follows quarter one’s modest growth of 1.3%, meaning that the ra...

Confidence Continues to Tumble
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 25 Aug 2015

A combination of unfavourable factors arising both locally and internationally are placing a strain on South Africa’s already fragile economy. This has led to compromised confidence in the country for both consumers and business. Overall, we expect lacklustre economic performance as factors such ...

Don't take your eye off the big picture
CHINA FINANCIAL · In Brief · 25 Aug 2015 · 2 responses

With all this excitement in the market it is important to remember the big picture: 1. GDP growth will continue to slow, either steadily, by 100-150 bps a year through the rest of the decade, or disruptively, with growth stabilizing at 6-7% for the next two or three years, and then, once China hi...

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