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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2014

Vox Populi shows a stable scenario On April 16, the Vox Populi Institute released a new voting intention poll, conducted April 6-8, for the presidential race.The poll reveals a stable scenario compared to February (see Table 1 below). According to the results, President Dilma Rousseff (PT), with ...

Devaluation, Step by Step
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Fourteen months of slow reforms have shaped the forex regime that will, in our view, be in place until after the 2015 legislative elections. The system is based on three official exchange rates: the 6.30 bolivars per dollar Cadivi/Cencoex rate, Sicad and Sicad II. The government...

Is Erdem Basci on his way out?
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2014

I’m extremely reluctant to comment on rumors in the Turkish media, but the frequency of articles suggesting that a major anti-Gulen operation in Capital Markets Board (CMB, Turkey’s SEC), BRSA and CBT has begun and may cause governor Basci his post are too grave to ignore. Besides, Reuters added ...

Presidential Approval Plumbs New Lows
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The most notable result of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of voter opinion regarding governability is the extent to which President Enrique Peña’s approval ratings have fallen. Support of the administration has steadily weakened since mid-2013, but the poll from this past M...

Ukraine to issue $1 billion under US state guarantees
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Apr 2014

Yesterday the U.S. and Ukrainian governments signed a loan guarantee agreement for $ 1 billion. Today Ukrainian Minfin announced its intention to issue $1 billion Eurobonds. In fact, it is a very positive signal for the country given all tough conditions Ukraine is facing for the moment. Still we...

South Africa at the Election Gathering
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Apr 2014

South Africa is now in full electioneering swing. Understandably, emotions are running high, and all the political parties, civil society activists, trade unions, businesses and society at large are on full alert. The 2014 General Elections, scheduled for May 7, are believed to be of particular s...

Continuing Signs of Sluggishness
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2014

Executive Summary During the first months of 2014 a debate emerged over just how long it may take the economy to shake off the slowdown into which it has become increasingly mired since last year. So far the doubt has centered on just how much increased government spending and growth in exports m...

Labor Market: Data from the Continuous PNAD
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Apr 2014

Brazil no longer has an abundance of labor as it did in the past. But the data from the labor market are partial and need to be improved. To provide a better picture of the job market, the IBGE recently launched the “Continuous PNAD” (PNAD Contínua, with PNAD standing for National Household Surve...

Economy Ticking; Politics, Not So Much
COLOMBIA · Report · 14 Apr 2014

Executive SummaryGDP sped up in 2013, to 4.3% from 4% in 2012. Construction, lifted by a government-supported low-income housing program, expanded 9.8%. Agriculture also did well, up 5.2%. Despite mining’s notorious slowdown, it’s still one of the fastest-growing sectors, up 4.9% last year, mainl...

Political Insights: Week of April 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2014

The presidential race begins a new chapter with the launch of the candidacies of Eduardo Campos (PSB) for President and Marina Silva for Vice President. Two presidential polls may be released this week: Vox Populi and another Ibope poll. The battle for the installation of the Petrobras CPI contin...

News polls for president in Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Apr 2014

These week, two news polls for President in Brazil will be released. From Tuesday, Vox Populi survey conducted between April 6 and 8, may be disclosed. From Thursday, a Ibope survey (between 10-17 April) may be released also. We expect that these two new polls will confirm Dilma's fall in the two...

Consumers' economic health to go under the microscope
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2014

Pointers from key sections of the production side of the South African economy (i.e. manufacturing and mining) have indicated a weakening momentum in activity or worse (see our Special Report 11 April 2014). Next week, Statistics South Africa will publish retail sales figures for February 2014 on...

After the Election: Political Stability, Healthy Macro Balances & Low Growth
HUNGARY · Forecast · 11 Apr 2014

Executive Summary In our first Quarterly Report on Hungary, we deal with the results and the likely impact of the election held last Sunday, and a macro forecast running through end-2016. On the latter, we provide readers with an explanation of the direction, the movers and the dynamics of expect...

Symptoms of A Frail Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Apr 2014

The performance of mining and manufacturing disappointed in February 2014. Looking ahead, risks to these sectors are tilted to the downside, with adverse consequences for an economic recovery in 2014. Contraction in total mining production – by almost 5% y/y in February 2014 (see Graph 1) – may s...

Challenging Goliath
PHILIPPINES · Report · 11 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Philippine-China relations sank to a new low last week following the Philippines’ filing of a memorial or pleading before a United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea arbitral tribunal. The memorial was in connection with the arbitration case it initiated against China earl...

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