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Strong grain harvest prevents 3Q 2014 GDP from deep fall
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Oct 2014

In 3Q 2014 Ukraine’s GDP performed much better than we expected. In particular, the State Statistics Service reported 5.1% y/y GDP decline last quarter (we estimated -11.2% y/y). For nine months GDP fell 3.8% y/y according to our estimates. Stronger agro-production performance (+23.9% y/y in 3Q 2...

The COPOM’s Decision
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2014

In the face of inflation hovering near the top of the target interval and projections for 2015 in the same neighborhood (around 6.4%, Graph 1), there were no doubts that the Central Bank would raise the SELIC rate. The surprise was therefore not the increase, but instead the fact it came just aft...

Mixed Credit Picture Year to Date
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Growth in financing to the non bank private sector in Mexico has been led largely in recent months by a significant rise in external financing by large companies at the same time as the flow of consumer credit and loans to smaller companies remains weak. Growth in consumer credi...

After Reelection, Dilma Suffers Defeat in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2014

In the first day of Congressional activity after her reelection, President Dilma Rousseff suffered her first defeat in the House of Representatives.Congressmen approved a bill (PDC 1491/14) that annuls the presidential decree that created the National Policy for Social Participation, with many op...

Political Reform Speed Bump
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Delays in passing political reform will require a major rethinking of the current legislative calendar as informally conceived by the three main political parties. At stake is not only whether the structural reform items listed in the Pact’s agenda can win approval during the cu...

A New Hope
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive Summary October 20th was a milestone date for Indonesia. For the first time in the country’s history, a regional leader was inaugurated as president. Joko “Jokowi” Widodo served two terms as mayor in Solo, Central Java (though the second term was unfinished, due to his move to Jakart...

Toward a Political Crisis?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The September 26 murder of six people, and the disappearance that same evening of 43 students in the state of Guerrero remains a totally open case. With the main suspects (the top officials in the city of Iguala) in hiding, the authorities have only just now begun to indicate th...

Unexpectedly low fiscal deficit target set for 2015
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Oct 2014

Fact: The Fiscal Council released its preliminary assessment of the government's budget draft for next year. The draft itself is not publicly known yet, but from the Council's statement, it became clear that the 2015 general government deficit target has been set at 2.4% of GDP, following the 2.9...

Edge of the Precipice
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryAs the armed conflict has calmed down, parliamentary elections have brought in a pro-reformist coalition, and important reforms (such as a series of anti-corruption measures) have been launched. Some positive developments are in the making. At the same time, we continue to see ma...

Consequences of a Distortion in Measurement of the Real Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Since August 2011 the real exchange rate measured in relation to the basket of currencies has depreciated by more than 25%. However, seasonally adjusted monthly exports and imports have continued to fluctuate around an approximately constant level, generating nil trade balanc...

EL SALVADOR: Politics Hampering Economics
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryWe expect the next 15 months in El Salvador to be marked by slow growth, low inflation, and a high, if declining, current account deficit. The fiscal deficit will be stable but high, burdened by pension system financing demands. It is basically the same picture we’ve seen for the...

The Growing Current Account Deficit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2014

The current transactions deficit continues to increase. In September it again exceeded the consensus projections, rising to US$ 83.6 billion over the past 12 months, or 3.7% of GDP. This is the highest 12-month deficit since March 2002. The quality of its financing has also been worsening. Since ...

Dilma Reelected and Second Term Begins with Political Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2014

16 years in power Dilma Rousseff was reelected to a second term with the support of 54,501,118 voters (51.64% of valid votes), handing Aécio Neves’ (51,041,155, 48.36%) PSDB its fourth consecutive defeat.This is the PT’s slimmest margin of victory over the PSDB. When Dilma leaves office in four y...

Weekly Tracker: October 27-November 2
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The politics section starts with an analysis of Ankara’s grave errors of judgment in the course of the Syrian War. As a result of these, Turkey imported an al-Qaeda problem, it argues. Meanwhile, the Peace Process is most probably put on ice until after the 2015 general election...

Exit-polls: Pro-Reformist Majority Looks Secured
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2014

The voters, which were indecisive (near 1/3 of voters), indeed delivered surprises. Block of Petro Poroshenko was reported only slightly above "Narodny front" (Arseniy Yatsenyuk). "Sylna Ukraina" of Sergey Tigipko is out. Communist party also did not pass 5% barrier. At the same time "Samopomitch...

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