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Atypical disinflation in March
VENEZUELA - Report 09 Apr 2021
March inflation slowed to 7 percent month-on-month, from 16 percent in February. That extraordinarily low reading owes partly to a fiscal policy-driven cash crunch as demand for bolivars to pay annual taxes collided with unusually low government spending, causing dollar prices to fall against the...

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Balance of payments remains stable in 1Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 09 Apr 2021
Russia’s balance of payments continued to evolve in 1Q21 and looked relatively healthy. The current account surplus reached $16.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $24.4 bn. Even though these numbers are lower than in 2Q20 ($23.9 bn and $33.1 bn), they looked solid. Note that Russia’s oil exports...

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CPI-inflation in March: headline rate up, core rates down
HUNGARY - In Brief 09 Apr 2021
Once again, the direction for headline CPI-inflation was set by fuel prices in March. The figures were: 0.7% mom, unchanged, but 3.7% yoy, sharply up from 3.1% yoy in February and 2.7% yoy in each of the previous three months. However, the yoy rate of core inflation dropped to 3.9% yoy from 4.1% ...

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Russia giving Twitter more time to delete illegal posts or face a ban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 09 Apr 2021
On April 4 the government told the social media company that it has until mid May to take down unlawful statements. Roskomnadzor has already slowed Twitter to penalize it. Twitter allegedly permitted posts on narcotics, encouragement of child suicide and posts connected to child porn. Twitter vig...

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The burden of public debt management impinges on monetary policy
INDIA - Report 08 Apr 2021
There has long been an awkward feature of the Indian institutional environment: The central bank also conducts public debt management, banking regulation, aspires to control the exchange rate, and controls the operations and regulation of the bond market. Given this backdrop and the changes that ...

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Improving industrial output growth in February
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Apr 2021
Industrial output grew 4.8% mom, 3.7% yoy in February, which means quite good-looking figures. The monthly growth rate was perhaps less impressive, as it represented a bounce-back from a period when car manufacturers were forced to halt production temporarily, due to a global shortage of essentia...

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Russia’s macro: CBR promises more rate hikes despite moderate growth, lower inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 08 Apr 2021
As Russia’s y-o-y inflation has remained high in recent months, the Central Bank of Russia has become more hawkish. After the 25 bps rate hike at its latest meeting, it warned of more hikes this year. Historically, the key rate was usually a few months behind inflation, especially at tipping poin...

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Russia's space tourism company folds
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 Apr 2021
On April 6 the company, Kosmokurs, closed. It intended to send tourists to space via a private cosmodrome. The company said it was too difficult to coordinate its business plan with local government. The regulations were also impossible to comply with.The company was founded in 2014. Its aim was ...

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Zoom backs down on ban on Russian State
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 Apr 2021
On April 8 Kommersant reported Zoom retracted its policy of not selling to the Russian government. Moscow has urged Russian companies to boycott Zoom in reprisal for the sale. Zoom has therefore revoked the ban.

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Pork tariffs lowered
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 08 Apr 2021
President Duterte on Wednesday signed an executive order substantially reducing tariffs on imported pork products for one year. The order immediately lowers tariff rates from 30% to 5% for imports within the quota or minimum access volume (MAV) effective for three months, increasing to 10% in the...

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China’s monetary policy and U.S. rates
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 08 Apr 2021
“China’s odd monetary transmission mechanisms are largely function of distortions to the Chinese economy, particularly in the Chinese commercial banking system.” John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Rising interest rates in the U.S. could increase capital flight pressure on Chi...

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​Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy
TURKEY - Report 08 Apr 2021
This is a joint report, co-written by GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada​ and GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations with the UAE...

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​Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 08 Apr 2021
This report was co-written by GlobalSource Partners GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander and GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations...

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Enemy at the Gates: Russia shows muscle on the border of Ukraine
UKRAINE - In Brief 08 Apr 2021 1 response
Over the recent weeks we have seen regular reports about the growing number of Russian troops on the border of Ukraine. That was a logical and quite predictable development after Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “killer” and after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ambushe...

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Tapering in FX intervention appears to be already here
ISRAEL - In Brief 08 Apr 2021
Tapering in the FX market appears to be already occurring. In March, the BoI purchased 2.0bn USD, following 4.9bn in February and 6.8bn in January. The shekel appreciated by 1% in March (against the basket), and has appreciated by 0.5% in the first week of April. Although the BoI has purchased 13...