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Reconfiguration of forces in the Lower House and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 03 Aug 2020
Minister Paulo Guedes takes part in a public hearing on Tax Reform on Wednesday, August 5. The Judiciary resumes activity this week. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank meeting to set the benchmark interest rate and the release of the July IPCA results. This week’s Talking Points: ...

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Economics: Record declines throughout 2Q20 data
MEXICO - Report 03 Aug 2020
The economic news released in July depicted a profound deterioration of the economy and projects obstacles to an effective recovery of key economic sectors in the coming months. Preliminary data shows a double-digit contraction in GDP during the second quarter, the deepest on record, with the pan...

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​Economic growth in June confirmed a slowdown in the economic contraction.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 03 Aug 2020
At the Monetary Policy Meeting held on July 31, the Central Bank reported that on June 2020 the economy contracted by 7.1% relative to June 2019, a much smaller contraction than the one experienced on May (-13.6%) and April (-29.8%). The question is to what extent will the deceleration of the eco...

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Russia’s pandemic and political update: Dull scenery puzzles the audience
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 03 Aug 2020
In July, Russia’s pandemic situation evolved in the same fashion as a month ago. The number of newly infected people continued to subside, albeit very slowly, while the number of active cases fell from over 245K people in mid-June to around 184K in early August. The number of daily new cases fell...

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Tajikistan not exporting electricity to Uzbeks as Uzbekistan seeks more renewables
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Aug 2020
On July 28 Tajikistan announced that it cannot sell hydro-electricity Uzbekistan and Afghanistan due to lower water levels. The Nurek Plant dates to the Soviet era and it was a major earner for the poverty stricken country. Snowfall was very low last winter. The Vakhsh River is therefore very low...

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GDP contraction in Q2 likely to be moderate
ISRAEL - Report 03 Aug 2020
Recent economic indicators (such as credit card purchases) point to fairly steady economic activity in July. Unemployment drifted slightly higher in the first two weeks of July, to 12.3% (less than expectations). GDP contraction in Q220 is likely to be more modest than other DMs, due to strong hi...

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New government outlines its agenda, as COVID-19 intensifies
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 03 Aug 2020
The health crisis and economic recovery are President-elect Luis Abinader’s most urgent challenges. The pandemic has intensified over the past two weeks, reaching 66,182 cases and 1,123 deaths, while in the country’s two largest cities, the capacity of the health system is near collapse. GDP g...

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Back to mECQ
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 03 Aug 2020
Two days after keeping Metro Manila under general community quarantine (GCQ), President Rodrigo Duterte last night returned the nation’s capital and surrounding provinces to the more restrictive modified enhanced community quarantine (mECQ) effective for two weeks from August 4 to 18. The decisio...

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Growing popularity of opposition threatens incumbent in presidential election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Aug 2020
On July 30 over 60 000 people attended an opposition candidate's demonstration. Svetlana Tishanouskaya is running for president because her husband who was a candidate has been jailed. Public opinion is tightly controlled in Belarus. Such a turnout for an opposition rally is unprecedented. Her ra...

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Protests in Russia Far East continuing into 4th week
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Aug 2020
In Khabarovsk people have been taking to the streets for weeks to demonstrate against the arrest and dismissal of their governor. Sergei Furgal was fired on July 10 and charged with ordering two murders in 2005.Furgal belongs to the Liberal Democratic Party. He has been replaced by Putin with a m...

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The ruble: seasonal weakness
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 03 Aug 2020
In the past several weeks, the Russian ruble underperformed many other EM currencies. At the same time, Russia's fundamentals didn’t change significantly. As monthly foreign trade surplus is relatively small (in June it can be estimated at $4.2bn and in July should not yet differ much) the exchan...

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Employment data for Q2 does not look particularly scary
HUNGARY - In Brief 02 Aug 2020
Employment data by ILO methodology for Q2 has been reported in recent days, as one of the first datasets with information on what happened in June. This report is also important because the whole of the April-June period was affected by the Covid-19 crisis, and indeed it can be legitimately regar...

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Savings up in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 02 Aug 2020
During strictest lockdown Russian families saved 23% of their disposable incomes according to the Central Bank of Russia. This is the highest ever level. Usually savings hover at around 10% of disposable income. Unemployment is up and wages have gone down. The saving rate is not going to be maint...

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GDP contraction in Q2 likely to be moderate (relative to US and EU)
ISRAEL - In Brief 02 Aug 2020
Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up: Recent economic data point to steady economic activity in July: Credit card purchases increased by 4.9% in July (through 28.7). The Google Mobility Index points to some stability in the past 2 weeks. Production of electricity (adjusted), is up back to la...

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Ceasefire in eastern Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Aug 2020
On Monday 27 July a ceasefire took effect in Donbass. There have been countless ceasefires that have failed since 2014. The OSCE is observing the situation and cited 111 breaches on day one. This is not as bad in previous ceasefires.The presidents of Ukraine and Russia discussed the situation. Ru...