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Election milestones, ToS scenarios
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan has more-or-less declared May 14 as the new date for elections and is expected to issue the executive decree abolishing the legislature during the second week of March. The first essay covers other important milestones on the way to elections, such the final dates to register as...

Some thoughts on the macroeconomics of 2023
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2023

Our standard quarterly/forecast report would normally have reached your inboxes already, but because of the exceptionally fluid and uncertain context, politics in particular, we’ve been delaying it. Things are still extremely murky, but the economics author has nevertheless decided to think aloud...

Fitch Ratings changed the outlook for its sovereign BBB to negative yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Jan 2023

On January 20, Fitch published its first revision to Hungary's sovereign rating this year, affirming its BBB rating but lowering its outlook to negative. The agency explained the decision citing two kinds of factors: general risks, such as challenging global conditions, high interest rates, volat...

US declares Wagner Group is a criminal organization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2023

On January 20 the US made the ruling about the Russian private military company. The US estimates that Wagner has 50,000 fighters in Ukraine, and 80% of them were released from prison to fight. Wagner also has fighters in several African countries.  The US now regards Wagner as equivalent to the ...

The February electoral process: a critical political thermometer
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2023

The local government elections that will take place on February 5 are far from just another electoral process. They are extremely important to assess if the Correistas have regained strength, if CONAIE and Pachakutik have extended their influence to the national level, and if the Social Christian...

Belarus and Russian air forces carry out joint drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

On January 16 the allied nations began their drills. This involves every airfield in Belarus. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense has been unusually revealing about the nature of the drills. It stated that the two air forces are practicing airborne landings, deliveries of material and the evacuati...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain-Qatar handshake in UAE, Sharjah’s 2030 fiscal plan, Kuwaiti pardon may ease deadlock
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose for a second week on expectations of Chinese demand growth. * The UAE hosted an Arab leaders summit, featuring a Qatar-Bahrain handshake but no Saudi Arabia. * Inflation rose in Qatar (the highest, at 5.9%), Duba...

Kazakhstan macro: economy to strengthen in 2023 in the aftermath of steady growth in 2022
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jan 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the Kazakh economy performed quite well in 2022. It weathered several storms, such as protests in the early year, high exchange rate volatility in March-April triggered by Russia’s military activity in Ukraine, CPC disruption, and maintenance works ...

Webinar replay: Latin America Outlook 2023: Political risks and macro shifts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Going into 2023, how will the outlook for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru be shaped by growth and inflation, fiscal and debt dynamics, and political risks? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar "Latin America Outlook 2023: Political risks and macro shifts" for insight into ...

China’s tech crackdown is not over
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Shares in China’s technology sector have risen sharply due to a perception that the central government is relaxing its regulatory restrictions on the industry. This would be a mistake. Control mechanisms are in place that will hinder the industry’s growth. There are certain key sectors – namely, ...

President Lula will meet with the leaders of the three branches of government and Minister Múcio today, Minister Haddad and Lula will travel to Buenos Aires next week, and parties are forming alliances in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2023

Today, President Lula will meet with the leaders of the three branches of government and the Minister of Defense, José Múcio. The tone of the conversation should be one of alignment, especially within the military. Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad will travel to Buenos Aires with Lula next wee...

Will China’s property sector revive in 2023?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * After a terrible Year of the Tiger, the year of the Rabbit should be a year of recovery for the Chinese economy, driven by a partial reversal of last year’s contraction in consumption. I’ve been saying this for several months, however, and while I...

“Soft launch” for the Maharlika Fund
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

In Davos for this week’s World Economic Forum (WEF), President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. had been busy making a pitch for investing in the Philippines. Bringing with him his economic managers and select members of congress, and with the country’s most prominent tycoons in tow, the message he conveyed...

EU proposes court to try Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2023

On January 19 the EU Parliament overwhelmingly passed a resolution to create an international tribunal to prosecute Russian politicians and generals for aggression against Ukraine. The EU said this needs to be done because the International Criminal Court cannot try such suspects. The EU named th...

Government announces a debt buyback in an environment of ideological blinders
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Jan 2023

Economic Minister Sergio Massa announced that the government would start a debt buyback program for Global Bonds, starting with a USD 1bn target for the short end of the curve, specifically for the Global 29 and Global 30. Given the recent peso weakness, in particular in the informal cash market ...