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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Sep 12 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Aug 27
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Chile databank Aug 26
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 2
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Aug 25
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 12
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Hungary databank Sep 11
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Sep 10
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Sep 15
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South Africa databank Sep 5
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Sep 2
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAN MEXICO MAINTAIN MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN 2026?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Encouraging August fiscal data for the Treasury, but risks persist ahead of the 2026 budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2025
Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance published positive budget data for August. Revenues came in stronger than expected, while the deficit narrowed more than anticipated, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.7% of GDP from 4.8% in July. The improvement largely reflects a sharp accelera...
September 7 highlights the political divide and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) resumes the trial of Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état. The trial ends on Friday, September 12. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB–AM) presents his report on Complementary Bill No. 108/22 (Tax Reform regulation). Former Social Securit...
Politics: Mexico pleased with the results of the Sheinbaum-Rubio meeting, but underlying differences remain
MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The much awaited meeting between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio was finally held in Mexico City on September 3. It was the highest-level meeting between the two countries since Donald Trump took office seven months ago. The meeting was held in shadow o...
MTP 2026-28: Some quick thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-28 was published in the Official Gazette and presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and his economic team, including Finance Minister Simsek and CBRT Governor Karahan, at a press conference this morning. We lay out some quick thoughts below.
Russian macro: With the economy persistently slowing, the CBR has to act
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
In our June macroeconomic forecast, we revised Russia's 2025 full year GDP growth outlook down to 2.0%, with a slightly better figure of 2.4% for next year, expecting a "muddling through" scenario. We noted that the growth model that emerged during the pandemic in 2020 and solidified amidst the 2...
Independence day celebrations yesterday reflected the country’s polarization, the STF is scheduled to begin casting votes in Bolsonaro’s trial, and the report on the Management Committee bill should be released
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The September 7 celebrations reflected the polarization that divides the country. The central message from Bolsonaro’s allies was the defense of amnesty for those involved in the January 8, 2023, attacks. The Supreme Federal Court’s (STF) First Panel resumes trial proceedings against former Presi...
A budget made in Hogwarts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The administration has proposed a budget that, under optimistic assumptions, would result in a primary deficit of 0.17% of GDP in 2026. The projections rely on favorable revenue scenarios, which depend both on supportive economic conditions and on the approval by Congress of politically sensitive...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 8, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Sep 2025
This is the first of a new series of weekly reports in which we will review and analyze the week's geopolitical and macroeconomic developments and provide an outlook on both. In geopolitics, the main event of the past week continued to be the government’s decision to push ahead with the conque...
The Indo-US relationship: navigating a tariff shock and geopolitical recalibration
INDIA · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The 50% US tariff on Indian goods represents a significant stress test for the Indo-US relationship. While the direct economic impact appears surprisingly contained due to global trade reconfiguration and supply chain inertia, the core issue is geopolitical. The conflict is a symptom of leadershi...
An unusual development: strengthening industrial output and weakening retail sales in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2025
In recent months, this typically went the other way round. But anyway, the facts are the following: Industrial output grew by 2% mom in July, reducing the yoy decrease to 1.6% in that month, after a 3.6% yoy decrease in Q2. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100; source: KSH) looked like this: So, ...
All eyes on CHP, MTP and CBRT
TURKEY · Report · 07 Sep 2025
The month of September will be action filled. In his first essay, the politics author tries to explain the deep web of traps the Erdogan-controlled legal system weaved for CHP, which is very difficult to recap in an executive summary. It suffices to say though that there are at least 8 lawsuits i...
GULF WEEKLY: KSA and Bahrain issue sukuk, MBS and MBZ meet, the UAE speaks out against West Bank annexation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Sep 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $65 on rumors that OPEC+ may hike production again at a meeting on Sunday. * The Saudi and Emirati leaders, MBS and MBZ, met in Riyadh to discuss Palestine and bilateral relations. * Trump has offered NY may...
President Lula launched the “People’s Gas” program, the STF will resume the criminal trial against former President Bolosnaro next week, and the Senate may vote on the bill for compensatory measures against U.S. tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2025
President Lula yesterday launched the "People’s Gas” program (Gás do Povo), which will replace the Auxílio Gás model. The goal is to reach 15.5 million families, approximately 50 million people. Next week, attention will turn to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The Court’s First Panel will resume...
The economy appears to be slowing down
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2025
Russia's recent w-o-w inflation data showed a continuously deflationary trend, with consumer prices falling by 0.08% in the week ending September 1. Combining this with prior weekly inflation data suggests that August experienced around 0.25% m-o-m deflation, potentially lowering y-o-y inflation ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia's Pashinyan can still emerge victorious in next year's elections—against all odds
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Sep 2025
Armenia stands at a fork in the road as Premier Pashinyan promotes an agenda of "peace through concessions" as the central message to the electorate in the runup to the Jun 2026 parliamentary elections. With its provision for the acknowledgment of Nagorno-Karabakh as an Azerbaijani territory and ...