Country Insights

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Fighting on Tajik-Kyrgyz Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Sep 2022

On September 18 Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stated that their joint death toll was 94 from fighting in a few days of skirmishes. There is a shaky ceasefire that was signed on September 16 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The two countries have begun joint patrols.

Tajikistan acc...

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Pelosi in Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Sep 2022

On September 18 the Speak of the US House of Representatives visited Armenia. Speaker Pelosi was there to commemorate the Armenian Genocide. She condemned Azerbaijan for what she called illegal attacks on Armenia. Azerbaijan is a close ally of Turkey. Armenia blames Turkey for the genocide of ...

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Economic Activity: The Start of Deceleration
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 19 Sep 2022
Since the lags of monetary policy are long and variable, a degree of uncertainty always exists regarding the start of the effects of restrictive monetary policy. Last week, three important indicators of economic activity had contrary signs. While in June and July, real revenue from services and t...

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Ukrainians kill pro-Russian officials
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Sep 2022

On September 16 a bomb killed two pro-Moscow officials in Luhansk. The Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) said this was terrorism. Three other pro-Russian bureaucrats were killed on that day alone in separate incidents. One of them was deputy head of the Russian-appointed administration in Berdya...

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August’s better domestic demand was matched by worse property prices
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 19 Sep 2022
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The data releases this week and last week reaffirm the story of the past several months. Output growth continues to be weak in spite of aggressive supply-side measures, while the growth in consumption has further stagnated. This is exacerbated by th...

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Eight polls will be published this week, President Bolsonaro will give the opening speech at the UN General Assembly, and Rodrigo Pacheco will discuss the nursing salary floor and the provisional measure on tax credits
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Sep 2022
This morning, the FSB/BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election was published. According to the poll, Lula's advantage over Jair Bolsonaro in the first round increased to nine points from six points. On Tuesday, as is tradition, Bolsonaro will deliver the opening speech of the UN General Asse...

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Solid Q2 GDP data
URUGUAY - Report 19 Sep 2022
The recently published 2Q22 GDP data came in better than expected. With real growth of 7.71% y/y and a seasonally adjusted rise of 1.1% q/q, it represented the fifth consecutive quarter of growth and an improvement compared to the 0.5% q/q rise seen in 1Q22.

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Inflation surprises slightly on the downside
ISRAEL - Report 19 Sep 2022
* Inflation in August came in below expectations as food prices declined; core inflation y/y stabilized at 4.7%. * At the moment, a 0.5% rate hike appears likely in October, although 0.75% cannot be ruled out. * The CA surplus declined in Q2 as the trade deficit increased and the service...

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Inflation surprises slightly on the downside
ISRAEL - In Brief 18 Sep 2022

Inflation in August came in slight below expectations

* Inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (4.6% y/y), compared with expectations of -0.1% to -0.2%.

* Core inflation remained stable y/y at 4.7% (similar to that in July).

* The main surprise came from the decline in food pr...

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The EU Commission's rule-of-law proposal is out, quite in line with expectation
HUNGARY - In Brief 18 Sep 2022

The EU Commission has made up its mind as to what to propose to the European Council (more accurately Ecofin) on Hungary's ongoing rule-of-law procedure. The proposal is to set a financial penalty of €7.5bn of development grants, which represents 65% of Hungary's quota for three cohesion ...

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Damned if you do, damned if you don’t
TURKEY - Report 18 Sep 2022
President Erdogan came back from his meeting with Putin on the sides of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit with some gifts, though these may have fallen short of his expectations. Nonetheless, it is clear that Putin is ready to bankroll his pal Erdogan’s election campaign. The questions...

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Russia admits concerns of its allies over the Ukraine War
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Sep 2022

On September 15 at the Shanghai Cooperation Summit Plan said he had spoken to the Chinese about their "concerns" regarding the war.

On September 16 the Prime Minister of India told Putin, ''Now is not the time for war.'' Modi asked Putin to end the war by diplomacy. India is Russia's s...

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Kazakhstan bring elections forward
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Sep 2022 1 response

On September 16 Kazakhstan announced that a presidential election will be held in fall 2022. This is a surprise. The election was not due until December 2024. Why is the president bringing it forward? Presumably he considered that the situation will be more propitious for him now. The ostensib...

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President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador announced running for reelection
CENTRAL AMERICA - In Brief 16 Sep 2022

by Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced on Thursday his intention to run again for president in 2024, despite the country’s Constitution prohibiting serving consecutive presidential terms. The announcement was made on public televisio...

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GULF WEEKLY: Nuclear deal hopes fade, Dubai’s PMI hits 3-year high, Sisi visits Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 16 Sep 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Pessimism grew about an Iran nuclear deal but it avoided additional official censure at the IAEA. * Moody’s said the credit profiles of Oman and Qatar stand to benefit the most from high oil prices. * Saudi inflation acce...