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India's exports in a turbulent world economy
INDIA · Report · 07 Jul 2025

In memoriam: This is the final report prepared by Radhika Pandey. The global trade system is in a state of flux. There are early indicators that India is one of the few countries that stands to gain from the turmoil. In addition to the long-standing strength of services exports, there is now t...

Strained but standing: South Africa’s fiscal challenges and reform opportunities
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jul 2025

The OECD, in June, released its Economic Survey of South Africa, and it provides a sobering view of the country’s fiscal landscape. With gross government debt expected to remain above 75% of GDP in the near term (higher than the typical G20 emerging market economy), and significant revenue short...

Bank of Israel likely to hold rates steady, but easing expected in upcoming meetings, possibly as early as August
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jul 2025

The Bank of Israel is expected to announce its key policy rate decision today (Monday, July 7). While we do not expect a rate cut at this meeting, there is a growing consensus that easing could begin as early as August. The sharp appreciation of the shekel (up ~9% since mid-April), a notable decl...

Disinflation amidst political turmoil
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jul 2025

The final battle between Erdogan and CHP began Saturday, when three more CHP mayors were detained. Erdogan holds all the cards against a defiant Ozgur Ozel in this winner-takes-all wrestling match, which will soon witness Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas and Ozel himself being eliminated from politics, ...

Industrial output in May: from decrease to stagnation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2025

The preliminary industrial output numbers for May were not particularly strong, to say the least: -1.3% mom, -2.6% yoy. Yet, it is notable that this came after a much stronger result in April, when output actually grew by +1.5% mom, so that in the last two months together, output did not fall any...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Abu Dhabi GDP strong in Q1, Saudi current account returns to surplus, Oman Air joins oneworld
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Jul 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to around $69, despite expectations of another OPEC+ hike. * The Iran ceasefire held, but Trump and Khamenei continued a war of words. * Saudi Arabia’s current account returned to surplus, but FDI dipped sli...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

The FX market remains stable, as the ruble hovers close to R/$78 for some time. It looks as though the ruble demonstrated some immunity to various domestic and external factors. In our view, it may fluctuate around these levels for a bit longer. However, at some point, the excessively strong will...

Downgrades and deficits will be Petro’s legacy
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Rumors began spreading last month that the government wanted to suspend the fiscal rule, not due to a true macroeconomic emergency, but because of a soaring deficit driven by the government’s expansive fiscal ambitions and flagging revenue performance. The only way out for an administration that...

The economy will likely avoid technical recession as May statistics look better
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

A few weeks ago, Rosstat reported that in 1Q25, the nation’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 0.6% Q-o-Q. This publication fueled speculation about Russia's entering a recession, especially because April statistics didn’t impress, either. As technical recession implies negative economic grow...

Inflation y-o-y rises amid a slow deceleration m-o-m prompting no decisive action from the NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025

Inflationary pressure remains high as the Bureau of National Statistics reported inflation moved from 11.3% in May to 11.8% in June. However, it moderately decelerated last month to 0.8% m-o-m (versus 0.9% m-o-m in May and even higher numbers earlier this year). A year ago, inflation m-o-m was 0....

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The battle of the Caucasus—What is happening between Azerbaijan and Russia and what will be the consequences?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Key events in the Caucasus are these days being forced upon us with constant regularity. While Pashinyan has resorted to extreme measures to suppress dissent against his unpopular moves to placate Turkey and Azerbaijan and strike a peace deal that the Armenian society sees as a capitulation, Aliy...

Better headline, thanks to food prices
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Consumer prices rose by a slightly less than expected 1.4%, m/m, in June, with the annual CPI-inflation rate easing modestly to 35.1%, from 35.4% in May. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, with the 12-month rate, in contrast, rising further to 24.5%, from 23.1% in...

President Mulino´s State of the Union Speech: Messages to the voters and to the international markets
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025

Two hours after a surprise election of the Legislative Assembly's governing authorities, when a self-proclaimed opposition group to the government of José Raúl Mulino secured a narrow victory over Ricardo Martinelli's party, in a strange alliance with the deteriorating PRD, it was President Mulin...

The AGU filed an ADC to defend the constitutionality of the IOF tax hike, the House postponed the vote on the urgent status request for the tax benefits bill, and the Senate approved the MP that expands access to the Social Fund
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2025

The Office of the Attorney General (AGU) has filed a Declaratory Action of Constitutionality (ADC 96) with the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to defend the constitutionality of President Lula’s decree increasing the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF). Justice Alexandre de Moraes is serving as the r...

Erdogan – Ozel feud: A temporary reprieve
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Contrary to expectations of a majority of experts, the court postponed its ruling on the CHP convention fraud case to 8 September which evoked new thinking about potential outcomes and timing. Is Erdogan making a peace offer to Ozel, or is this just a tactical pause? Spoiler alert, it is the latt...

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