RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 14 Oct 2020

The Finance Ministry announced that both oil and gas revenues and revenues not associated with this industry continued to rebound in September, with VAT and excise taxes accounting for the bulk of non-oil and gas revenues, pointing to a continued gradual rebound of the economy. In 9M20, the go...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 14 Oct 2020

On October 14 the US said it had almost concluded an agreement with Russia on the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) Treaty on nuclear weapons. The current START runs out in February 2021. The US is content to extend the current START. They want Russia to stop modernizing and expanding its ar...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Oct 2020

In April 2008, S&P promoted Brazil to investment grade. Since 2000, the country had been maintaining primary surpluses that were big enough to reduce the debt/GDP ratio. In 2015, after the government had totally abandoned this commitment, and sent a budget bill to Congress with a primary deficit,...

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 13 Oct 2020

The Russian government has set a new annual record for domestic borrowing: it raised more than R3 trln on the open market year to date (the FY19 figure was slightly above R2 trln). Domestic local banks brought the lion’s share of demand, in contrast to the previous year, when international player...

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 13 Oct 2020

The Finance Ministry announced that both the oil-and-gas revenues and revenues not associated with this industry continued to rebound in September as total revenues exceeded R1.5 trln (versus around R1.3 trln in July and August each month). In 9m20, total revenues reached R13.2 trln, including ov...

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 13 Oct 2020

The Russian Central bank reported that the country’s total foreign debt decreased from January 1 to October 1by over $30bn to around $461.2. Sovereign debt shrank by over $10bn to around $59.4bn – largely on the back of the weakened ruble, which affected the value of the ruble-denominated bonds h...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 Oct 2020

Due to the October 12 holiday and the municipal elections, this will be an empty week in Brasília, without any relevant votes in the House or Senate. Supreme Court Minister Celso de Mello retires on Tuesday, October 13. On Thursday, the Central Bank will release the IBC-Br (GDP preview) for Augus...

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 13 Oct 2020

October 1 through 8 was China’s Golden Week, when families gather to celebrate the holidays and presumably spend money. Despite the holiday period, though, consumer spending was relatively flat. Bloomberg did point out some positive trends, including higher major retail and catering enterprise sa...

ISRAEL - In Brief 13 Oct 2020

In September, the fiscal deficit reached 14.9bn ILS compared to 1.9bn in September of last year. The deficit/GDP ratio in the LTM reached 9.1%, from 8.1% last month and 3.7% in 2019.In the first nine months of the year, non-Covid related expenditure increased by only 0.9% y/y, while Covid related...

MEXICO - Report 12 Oct 2020

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador along with the Business Coordinating Council (CCE) released a text last week entitled Actions and Projects for Supporting the Economic Recovery confirming 39 infrastructure projects that are supposed to contribute to reactivating the country´s economy. Th...

MEXICO - Report 12 Oct 2020

A National Anti-AMLO Front, better known as Frenaa, has emerged by default as the main public expression of opposition to López Obrador’s administration, thanks to the paralysis and irrelevance in which opposition parties remain engulfed. Over the past four months, the front has organized ever la...

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 12 Oct 2020

Sultan Haitham just issued Royal Decree 121/2020 for the VAT Law. We are trying to get hold of a copy of the final draft. News reports say it will begin in "six months" which we are guessing means 1 April, but have yet to confirm this (OO). When parliament approved the law six weeks ago it recomm...

ISRAEL - Report 12 Oct 2020

• The Director General of the MoF, Karen Turner, announced her resignation yesterday, five months after her appointment • The lack of a coherent fiscal policy and a general political instability could support a negative rating outlook. • Economic growth continues to suffer from the second closu...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 12 Oct 2020

On October 11 Tajikistan announced that President Emomali Rahmon was re-elected with 91% of the vote. The presidential term is 7 years. 4 virtual unknowns ran against him and garnered almost no media attention. The media is entirely state controlled. Turnout was 855. The economy is suffering badl...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 11 Oct 2020

On October 10 parliament elected Sadyr Japarov as a prime minister. Only days ago he was rescued from prison by a crowd of hundreds. He was there for kidnapping. This comes after a disputed parliamentary election. Since Japarov as freed a court overturned his conviction. Some politicians say he i...