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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The government says exchange rate policy will remain unchanged—the question is for how long
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Nov 2025

The president and the economy minister have said that no significant changes in FX policy are in the cards. In this report, I evaluate whether, given the net demand for dollars from the SPN, the rest of the economy will have the capacity to generate the excess supply necessary to satisfy that dem...

Politics: Killing of Michoacán mayor sparks outrage over weakness in Sheinbaum’s response to organized crime
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2025

The high-profile murder on November 1 of Carlos Manzo Rodriguez, mayor of Uruapan, Michoacán, has sparked enormous pent-up indignation nationwide and put the spotlight on President Claudia Sheinbaum’s public security policies. Manzo, who had previously been a Morena congressional deputy but bolte...

Lula is expected to sign into law the income tax exemption bill, he should also appoint Justice Barroso’s successor, and the STF should hear the criminal complaint against Eduardo Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025

President Lula (PT) is expected to sign into law this week the bill on the Individual Income Tax (IR) exemption. The bill was approved last week by the Federal Senate and is one of the president’s main bets to boost his popularity in 2026. President Lula’s (PT) appointment for the existing vacanc...

Growth remains robust
INDONESIA · Report · 10 Nov 2025

The Indonesian economy as reported by the Central Board of Statistics grew by 5.04% in Q3 2025. The rate of growth remained robust due to strong private consumption and exports. Exports grew by 9.91%, supporting the regions with strong export activity. For industrial products, the main export act...

The mystery of industrial stagnation explained
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025

Despite economic growth in recent years somewhat above the historical average, Brazil’s industrial sector continues to show low dynamism. Our interpretation is that one of the main obstacles to the sector’s growth is, paradoxically, the very expansionary economic policy, which stimulates demand i...

Early evidence from the first wave of Trump tariffs on Indian exports
INDIA · Report · 10 Nov 2025

In this report, we analyze the initial impact of the 2025 US tariffs on Indian exports. The available trade data, running through July/August 2025, captures only the "First Wave" tariff from April. The impact of the 50% "Second Wave" tariff (effective August 27) and the $100k H1B fee (effective ...

Results of the Trump-Orbán meeting appear significant, although somewhat unclear
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2025

PM Orbán travelled to Washington DC in the past few days, and he met President Trump on November 7. Mr. Orbán travelled with a large mission, including the foreign, defense and economy ministers, a number of top businessmen and the number of media people needed to make big publicity around the vi...

Stranger things
TURKEY · Report · 09 Nov 2025 · 2 responses

President Erdogan is marshalling his resources in the judiciary to open a new front in his showdown with CHP. The immunities of 12 CHP heavyweights, including chairman Ozer may be lifted. Meanwhile, shortly after the European Court of Human Rights ordered Turkey to release Selahaddin Demirtas, Ba...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ pauses hikes for Q1, Saudi PMI surges, Microsoft boosts UAE AI investments, Qatar issued $4bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Nov 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced a small Dec hike followed by a 3-month pause; Brent dipped back to $63. * Aramco beat profit expectations and hiked its gas production target for 2030 by about 13%. * The Saudi PMI surged to 60.2, the seco...

Kazakhstan macro: The recent strengthening of the tenge might not hold for long
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 Nov 2025

Recent macroeconomic data from the Bureau of Economic Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank show that while the current economic situation appears stable and economic growth exceeds expectations, the economy could be on the verge of changes due to some lingering macroeconomic...

The STF begins the virtual trial of Bolsonaro’s appeals, Lula should sign into law the income tax exemption bill next week, and he should appoint Paulo Gonet for another two-year term as Prosecutor General
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2025

Today, the First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) begins the virtual trial of appeals filed by former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état. If the appeals are rejected, Moraes may order the immediate start of the prison sentences. Ne...

2025 was lost, again, see you in 2026
TURKEY · Report · 07 Nov 2025

The CBRT released the fourth and final Inflation Report of the year and held its final briefing of the year. As expected, the Bank kept its medium-term (interim) targets for 2025, 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 24%, 16%, and 9%, respectively, as in the August report. Also as expected, the Bank revise...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Who stands to dominate the ballot box in Armenia’s 2026 showdown?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Nov 2025

This year I have spent a considerable amount of time discussing and analyzing the political backdrop in Armenia, including because, with the political cycles over in Azerbaijan and Georgia, it is now Armenia's turn to hold parliamentary elections next Jun. However, in contrast to Georgia, where I...

Continued signs of recovery in manufacturing. Further rate cuts uncertain.
POLAND · Report · 07 Nov 2025

Incoming data show a rebound in the Polish industrial sector in 3Q2025, mainly driven by production of non-durable consumer goods, amid very weak external demand and trade within global value chains. However, capital goods output has been rising in recent months, suggesting a possible rebound in ...

Israel Governor signals conditions are ready for a rate cut, provided October CPI and Q3 growth remain moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron hinted at a possible interest-rate cut ahead of the bank’s November 24 decision. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, he said the September CPI, which fell by 0.6%, was “a step in the right direction.” Yaron noted that the shekel’s appreciation and the expected ...

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