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US says it is giving captured Iranian arms to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Apr 2024

On April 9 the US military made the announcement. The shipments include ammunition and small arms. These Iranian-manufactured weapons were used by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Yemeni Army captured the weapons in battles against the Houthis. Ukraine is grateful for shipments but small arms inflict ...

Peru: pension funds withdrawal to be approved on Thursday
PERU · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024 · 1 response

As expected, today Congress scheduled the vote on the pension funds withdrawal bill at its Thursday congressional plenary. The bill calls for pension funds’ contributors to be able to withdraw up to four Unidades Impositivas Tributarias (UITs, or tax-inflation-indexed units). This would allow eac...

Flooding in Russia and Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024

On April 3 serious flooding impacted southern Russia and northern Kazakhstan. The abrupt thaw has caused snow to melt faster than usual. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated in Russia and 86,000 in Kazakhstan. Over 10,000 houses have been flooded. Some regions have declared a state of ...

President Lula participates in the signing of the MP on Renewable Energy and Tariff Reduction, the Joint Committee on the payroll tax exemption was postponed until Thursday, and Pacheco committed to the zero-deficit target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Apr 2024

Today President Lula participates in the signing of the Provisional Measure (MP) on Renewable Energy and Tariff Reduction. It sets aside resources from the privatization of Eletrobras to reduce electricity bills by 3.5% in 2024. The installation of the Joint Committee to analyze the payroll tax r...

Smooth federal budget performance in 1Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024

Minfin reported that the 1Q24 federal budget revenues accounted for about R8.7 trln (24.9% of the annual plan set at nearly R35.1 trln). The figure looks decent, as in 2024, the revenue target exceeds last year’s actual revenue figure by 20.4%. In 1Q24, the government collected R2.9 trln of the o...

Poor budget, strengthening forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024

The central government's cash budget did not do particularly well in March and Q1, according to fresh data from the Finance MInistry. In annualised ratio-to-GDP terms, the March deficit was recorded at 9.7%, marginally down from 9.9% one year earlier, and the Q1 total reached 12.2%, exactly the s...

Politics: Races tighten for several governorships in play this June, with major implications for the federal elections
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2024

Nine states, including Mexico City, will hold gubernatorial elections the same days as the presidential contest this year, and considering that the nine account for 35% of all registered voters in Mexico, what happens at the state level could have a major influence on the outcome of the president...

A race against time in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2024

President Lula may decide whether to replace Jean Paul Prates at Petrobras. Parliamentary fronts in the House conclude the discussion on Tax Reform. The government discusses the LDO bill, to be sent on April 15, along with Tax Reform regulations. This week's Talking Points:  * A race a...

Milei’s first four months
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Apr 2024 · 1 response

In our previous monthly report, we used the reference to the movie “The Matrix” to conceptually illustrate the costly process of “awakening” an economy from its unsustainable macro policies. The economy would be awakened to a reality that is fiscally and monetary more sustainable, with better inv...

Exchange Rate: Brazil and Its Peers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Apr 2024

The behavior of the Real, which in recent weeks has weakened beyond the level of R$ 5.00/US$, has followed the global appreciation of the dollar in response to the increase in long-term interest rates in the United States. This behavior is different than that of the currencies of Mexico and Colom...

Rates on hold, fiscal deficit pushes higher despite strong revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2024

The Bank of Israel maintained present policy rates on hold at 4.5% on April 8 (market expectations were divided). In the press conference the Governor was clear that elevated geopolitical risks and FX stability were key to the decision: “In view of recent developments, which indicate a substantia...

President Lula may make a decision regarding the president of Petrobras this week, the Joint Committee on the payroll tax exemption should be installed, and government rushes to finalize the Tax Reform regulations
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2024

We are expecting some developments regarding Petrobras this week. President Lula may decide whether or not Jean Paul Prates will remain in office. The president of BNDES, Aloizio Mercadante, is currently the main option to replace Prates. On Tuesday, April 9, the Joint Committee is scheduled to b...

Economics: Public finances got off to a dismal start as the 2025 Pre-Criteria are a cause of alarm
MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The week before last, the Ministry of Finance released its reports on both public finances for January-February 2024 and Economic Policy Pre-Criteria for 2025 (PCGPE). The public finance report shows a deterioration that the economic package approved for 2024 had anticipated, but it has unfolded ...

Diplomatic impasse with unpredictable consequences
ECUADOR · Forecast · 08 Apr 2024

As we write this report, the world press is reporting on the trespass of the Mexican Embassy ordered by President Noboa last Friday night to capture former Vice Jorge President Glas, a convicted felon who should not have been a subject of the political asylum granted him by the Mexican government...

A storm of uncertainties
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Apr 2024

The government did not allow Machado's candidacy or Corina Yoris, her designated substitute. After the deadline for nominations had expired, the National Electoral Council (CNE) admitted the "symbolic" candidacy of Dr. Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a retired diplomat with no party ties, under the car...

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