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Country Insights

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Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 13 May 2022
May 4 National bank: Current account surplus reached $2.2 bln in 1Q22, according to preliminary estimates Bureau of National Statistics: CPI in April was 2% y-o-y and 7.3% in 4M22 Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (local railways): Transportation for export via railroad grew in 1Q22 by 6% y-o-y May 5 Parlia...

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GULF WEEKLY: UAE president dies, Dubai tourists exceed 2019 levels, Qatar’s emir visits Iran
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 13 May 2022 1 response
​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The EU and Qatar attempted to restart Iran nuclear negotiations with visits to Tehran. * PMIs fell in April in Saudi, Dubai and UAE but rose to a new record in Qatar. * Aramco surpassed Apple as the world’s most valuable c...

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President Bolsonaro conflicts with the TSE and with Petrobras, the new Minister of Mines and Energy submitted a request for studies on the privatization of Petrobras, and the third-way alliance may select its presidential candidate next week
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 May 2022
After the president of the TSE, Minister Edson Fachin, stated that “...nothing and no one will interfere in the Electoral Court," President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) declared, “The Armed Forces are not meddling in the elections.” Bolsonaro also said he will go to court to try to force Petrobras to redu...

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Ukrainian gas transit to Europe fell by one-third, Hungary is indirectly affected
HUNGARY - In Brief 13 May 2022
The operator of Ukrainian gas pipelines stopped transiting Russian natural gas through a particular branch of its network on May 11, claiming the occurrence of a force majeure that made it impossible to continue its service. Gas TSO of Ukraine, the operator, said that it had lost control of its f...

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Russia says EU membership for Ukraine is unacceptable
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 13 May 2022
On May 12 Moscow upped its rhetoric on the EU. Russia had previously said it could live with Ukraine joining the European Union so long as Ukraine vowed never to seek NATO membership. However, a Russian diplomat at the United Nations said that had changed. He said that the EU and NATO were almost...

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GDP grew 8.3% in Q1 2022
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 12 May 2022
Despite the Omicron-driven surge in covid-19 cases at the start of the year, economic growth in Q1 was stronger than the median analyst forecast of 6.7%.The 8.3% yoy headline number reflects some base effects, but economic growth on a sequential seasonally-adjusted basis was at a robust 1.9% clip...

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Several factors fed inflation in April
VENEZUELA - Report 12 May 2022
In April, the monthly inflation rate accelerated to 4.4 percent, driven up by monetary expansion, bolivar depreciation, the Tax on Large Financial Transactions (Impuesto a las Grandes Transacciones Financieras, or IGTF) on certain payments in foreign currency, and price increases resulting from t...

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The new Minister of Mines and Energy made his first official statement, the issue of inflation will be an important topic in the election, and Pacheco has a meeting with state finance secretaries today to discuss the increasing price of diesel
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 12 May 2022
Adolfo Sachsida said that he has 100% of President Jair Bolsonaro’s support. He did not mention any change in Petrobras's pricing policy, but said he will ask for studies on legislative bills that deal with the privatization of the company. Regarding the increase in fuel prices, Lula will likely ...

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Finland to apply to NATO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 12 May 2022
On May 12 the Prime Minister and President of Finland both signed their formal intention to apply to to the 30 nation military alliance. Finland signed a 1944 treaty with the USSR vowing never to join a military alliance. The Finnish President said his country's decision to reverse 78 years of po...

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Caught between two worlds
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 12 May 2022
It’s becoming increasingly clear that China’s leadership has no clear path out of the problems of handling the latest Covid wave, the impact on supply chains and domestic activity, the prolonged problems with the property industry, and the slowing economy. There also is significant debate about e...

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Ukraine claims Russia pushed back from Kharkiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 11 May 2022
On May 11 Ukraine said that the Russian Army had been driven back from Ukraine's second city. Russia has lost the high ground near Kharkiv making it harder to shell the city. On May 10 the US House of Representatives voted for a USD 40 billion aid package for Ukraine. The US Senate has to vote on...

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New car sales down 78% Y o Y in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 11 May 2022
On May 11 statistics showed that car sales fell drastically in April 2022. The Association of European Businesses published figures. There was a 60% Y o Y drop in March 2022. It demonstrates that the impact sanctions is gradually being felt more and more. Note that the sale of second hand car is ...

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Pressure from public servants for a salary raise continues, Bento Albuquerque resigns from the Ministry of Mines and Energy, and two new polls on the presidential election will be published today
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 11 May 2022
Federal police officers will hold a demonstration in favor of a salary raise on Thursday. On Friday, foreign trade analysts will meet and may go on strike on May 17. Specialists in public policy and management, in addition to planning and budgeting for their careers, have scheduled a strike for M...

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Putin's Victory Day Speech is surprisingly unremarkable
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 10 May 2022
May 9 Russia marked the 77th anniversary of the defeat of Germany. There was a significantly scaled down parade. Putin repeated the message he has been saying for 11 weeks: Ukraine is run by Nazis, and the war was forced on Russia by NATO aggression. He claimed that this war is 1941 all over agai...

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Diesel price hike brings back rumors of a truckers’ strike, Pacheco will meet with state finance secretaries about the ICMS tax on fuel, and the House may analyze six provisional measures
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 10 May 2022
The price hike also increases pressure for a bill that has already been passed in the Senate and is currently in the House on a transportation subsidy for the elderly. The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, will meet with state finance secretaries on Thursday. The states want to show that ...