Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - NAVIGATING AN OIL GLUT: FISCAL AND RATING RISKS FOR ...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rating agencies reaffirm Israel’s rating but stress that any improvement depends on fiscal consolidation and political stability
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025

Moody’s reaffirms Israel’s rating and upgrades growth outlook Moody’s reaffirmed Israel’s Baa1 rating with a negative outlook on October 16, 2025, describing the Gaza ceasefire as credit-positive but emphasizing that risks remain elevated. The agency raised its growth forecasts to 2.5% for 2025 a...

A most fateful week
TURKEY · Report · 19 Oct 2025

The CBRT/MPC will convene on Thursday and the next day, a court in Ankara may rule that CHP’s 38th extraordinary convention was rigged, turning the party over to former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu (the base-case scenario). The politics author also suspects that Turkey may wake up to new corporate...

Messrs. Putin and Trump are coming to Budapest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025

It was only two days ago that we wrote in our forecast report that Hungary's foreign relations are developing now with all eyes kept on the upcoming parliamentary election, and that the roles are clearly distributed: Messrs. Putin and Trump support PM Orbán, whereas the European mainstream suppor...

Panama’s floating debt: scope, spillovers and solutions
PANAMA · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Floating debt has turned into an off-budget fiscal shock absorber. By our definition, recognized (meaning "accepted") accounts payable plus turnkey work-in-progress, it reached about US$5.2 bn (6% of GDP) in 2024, up by roughly US$3.1 bn, or 3.1 percentage points of GDP, since 2019. The build-up ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil at a 5-year low, Dubai's strong H1 fiscal surplus, Gaza ceasefire holds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Oct 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil had its worst week since 2020, touching $60 amidst oversupply and demand concerns. * OPEC still sees a balanced market in 2026, whereas the IEA forecasts nearly 4m b/d of oversupply. * The IMF revised up growth foreca...

All eyes on the budget, debt ratings and the ballot boxes
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Oct 2025

Our quarterly forecast update is based on two main technical assumptions. One is that US and, indirectly, global trade policies will remain the same as they were known at the end of September 2025. This should include primarily the tariffs agreed between the US and the EU during the summer, and a...

Mauro Vieira had a “very productive” conversation with Marco Rubio, the STF begins analysis of the constitutionality of the payroll tax relief policy, and Lula will launch the Reforma Casa Brasil Program next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Yesterday, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss a possible meeting between President Lula (PT) and U.S. President Donald Trump. Vieira described the conversation as “very productive.” Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) begins, vi...

Strong tax revenues keep 2025 deficit on target near 5% of GDP
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Oct 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 9.5 billion ($2.9 billion) in September, with the trailing 12-month deficit steady at 4.7% of GDP, unchanged from August. This marks a significant improvement from the 8.5% peak recorded in September 2024. Revenues in September totaled NIS ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts in the CCA take a positive turn in 2Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Poring through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 2Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...

Is China open for business?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Oct 2025

China’s rising equity markets and the improving atmosphere in US-China relations is convincing some foreign funds to return to China. They are also attracted to the success of companies such as DeepSeek and BYD and the expansion of robotics, which suggest China’s economy is improving. However, I ...

Kazakhstan macro: Concerned about inflation, the NBK turns more radical
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Oct 2025

A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the base rate by 150 bps to 18%. While a rate hike was anticipated, its magnitude exceeded expectations, as markets predicted a 50-to-100 bps increase. The NBK cited rising inflation as its primary concern, as it reached 12.9% y-o-y in Septem...

Lula’s administration announced the dismissal of political appointees tied to the Centrão, Gonet called for the reopening of the investigation into Abin, and the US and Brazilian governments will discuss the tariff hikes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2025

The administration has announced the dismissal of political appointees tied to members of the centrist bloc (“Centrão”). Yesterday, during events in Bahia, Lula said Congress had never reached such a low level of quality. Yesterday, former President Jair Bolsonaro suffered another setback. Prosec...

Israel September CPI – a sharp downside surprise strengthens the case for rate cuts
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Oct 2025

September CPI surprise: inflation eases sharply to 2.5%, driven by stronger shekel and seasonal factors Israel’s consumer price index fell by 0.6% in September, double our forecast for a 0.3% decline. As a result, annual inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest since February 2024. The decline clearly...

Peru's President Jerí's new cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025

Last night, the new president, José Jerí, took oath to his new Cabinet, consisting of 18 new ministers. Ahead of the Oath Ceremony at the Presidential Palace, Jerí said that none of the previous ministers would be included and his was a “transition Cabinet and of national reconciliation.” Overall...

Alcolumbre will meet today with Haddad to discuss the PLDO, Haddad should meet with Lula to discuss the alternatives to MP 1,303, and the selection of Barroso’s successor on the STF is stirring political activity
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2025

Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) confirmed that he will meet today with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to discuss the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO). The PLDO has been awaiting a vote in committee for several weeks. Regarding alternatives to MP 1,303, a meeting between President Lula ...

Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.