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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Nov CCA highlights: Armenia/Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, while Kyrgyzstan hikes and Tajikistan eases, Azerbaijan looks to ramp up oil/gas production from 2029, Georgia/Uzbekistan see sovereign outlook improvements
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2025

For a while, I have skipped the more mundane monthly publication of the key economic/political/geopolitical events in the CCA as more pressing writing issues have kept my pen occupied. The Nov summary rectifies this lapse, and, for the first time, adds Kyrgyzstan to the rest of the usually covere...

Economic performance looked better in October, with more challenges ahead amid appreciating ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2025

Recently published statistics indicated that October saw a kind of a moderate upturn as the short-term indicator grew by 2.9% y-o-y that month. The 10M25 tally grew by 1.1% (up from 0.9% in 9M25). This kind of moderate improvement was widespread across key segments of the economy. We previously m...

South Africa’s current account deficit declines in Q3-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Dec 2025

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2025, the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R72.2 billion in the second quarter to R57 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit narrowed from 1% ...

Easy does it
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025

Brazil’s GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, slightly below median forecasts (0.2%). While household consumption also increased 0.1%, both government consumption (1.3%) and investment (0.9%) performed better, resulting in a 0.4% increase in domestic demand—which accelerated compared to the second...

Justice Gilmar’s decision has raised tensions between the branches of government, the STF reviews the Eletrobras case, and the truckers’ strike should be timid
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025

A new clash between the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and Congress has heightened institutional tensions. Justice Gilmar Mendes, in a single-justice decision, ruled that only the Prosecutor General may file criminal charges against an STF justice. He also determined that the impeachment of a justic...

A reform blitz? Separating the signal from the noise
INDIA · Report · 04 Dec 2025

In recent months, the union government has reformed the Goods and Services Tax (GST), operationalized the long-awaited Labor Codes, set the date for the implementation of the Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Rules, and rescinded several Quality Control Orders (QCOs). This flurry of activit...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

The key event on the fixed income market was the placement of the debut OFZs nominated in CNY. Two tranches were issued with maturity in 2029 and 2033 totaling CNY20 bln. According to Minfin, the main purpose of this exercise was the refinancing of Russia-25 Sovereign Eurobonds, which matured on ...

Russian macro: Watch the exchange rate—nothing else matters (so far)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Over a decade ago, when the oil price bounced back after the 2008 crisis and remained above $100/bbl for some time after, the Russian economy grew fast enough (4.0% in 2012, for instance). Economic growth was also fueled by rapidly expanding household credit, while an overly strong ruble caused i...

Hungary's supply of Russian crude oil is not affected by recent Ukrainian hit at the Druzhba pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

On December 1, Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline system once again, causing an explosion and another break in the continuity of oil shipments. Subsequently, reports like the following one have appeared in the media: However, this does not appear to be correct. As widely known, Druzhba indeed t...

The Planalto Palace has secured more time for Messias’s confirmation hearing, the Senate approved the bill that taxes fintechs, and the House approved the environmental licensing bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025

The government’s maneuver worked, and the Planalto Palace secured more time for Jorge Messias’s confirmation hearing for the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Initially, the president of Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), had scheduled the hearing for December 10. But because President Lula did not...

Some good, some not-so-good news
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Monthly consumer price inflation surprised to the downside in November, coming in at around 0.9%, m/m, compared with a consensus forecast of around 1.3% (including ours). The 12-month CPI inflation thus declined notably to 31.1%, from 32.9% in October. Producer price inflation was also subdued in...

GDP grows for four consecutive quarters
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Dec 2025

The South African economy registered its fourth consecutive quarterly expansion during the third quarter of 2025, as real GDP increased by 0.5% q/q following another rise of 0.9% q/q in the second quarter. The recent growth momentum has been supported by a more stable electricity supply and impro...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, December 2, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Dec 2025

This week in Israel was once again dominated by political developments. The government is pushing to pass the Draft Bill quickly to secure ultra-Orthodox support ahead of the planned November elections, yet resistance within the coalition and among the public continues to intensify. Prime Ministe...

A tale of two Islands. Will the cost of Melissa reach or exceed Jamaica’s entire GDP?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 02 Dec 2025

Since its independence, Jamaica has never faced a physical and financial challenge of the magnitude of Hurricane Melissa, and it will take time and unprecedented amounts of money to build back better as the damage may indeed ultimately be near the country’s entire GDP. The announcement by the com...

The PL party will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss Michelle Bolsonaro’s criticism of Ciro Gomes, the House discusses the Public Security PEC, and the Senate discusses the bill that taxes fintechs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2025

A new rift has emerged within the opposition. The Liberal Party (PL) is holding an emergency meeting this afternoon in Brasília to discuss Michelle Bolsonaro’s public criticism of the PL’s alliance with Ciro Gomes (PSDB). Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), President of the Lower House, stated that tod...

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