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Pension reform proposal expected for Congress in February and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Jan 2019
Executive Summary The Ministry of the Economy is expected to present the Pension Reform proposal to President Bolsonaro. The idea is to send it to Congress in February. Bolsonaro meets with the President of Argentina, Mauricio Macri. On Thursday, the Central Bank releases the GDP preview (IBC-Br)...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 14 Jan 2019
Overview During the election campaign, Bolsonaro avoided talking about economic issues, alleging lack of knowledge of the subject. He stated that the questions should be put to Paulo Guedes. However, after assuming office, he provoked some unnecessary and costly clashes by revealing his intention...

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Too many doubts, too many delays, and a step back
ECUADOR - Report 14 Jan 2019
President Moreno has given preferential attention to the reconstruction of democratic institutions, achieving important even if insufficient outcomes. However, restoration of the macroeconomic and fiscal equilibrium still evidences weaknesses in its conceptual and practical development. A lack of...

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Economics: Risk outlook for 2019
MEXICO - Report 14 Jan 2019
Economic outlookMacroeconomic risk conditions during 2017 and 2018The Mexican economy experienced conditions of notable uncertainty and risk during 2017 and 2018, largely in response to developments internationally and the complicated evolution of Nafta modernization trade talks between Mexico, t...

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Headline CPI-inflation expected to have fallen to 2.7% yoy in December
HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Jan 2019
Tomorrow at 9am BUD time, the KSH is scheduled to publish its consumer price data for December. Analysts contributing to Portfolio.hu's poll expect another sharp drop by the headline rate, to 2.7% yoy from November's 3.1%yoy, and we agree with that forecast. In our own spreadsheet, this result wo...

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Politics: Judicial power at a crossroads
MEXICO - Report 14 Jan 2019
Political outlook A January 2 vote by the eleven members of Mexico’s highest court chose Arturo Zaldívar to preside over the Supreme Court for the next four years (2019-2022). Seven of the eleven members of the court voted for Zaldivar. It is important to note that all eleven justices collectivel...

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Apple’s China Problem: Is luxury consumption declining?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 14 Jan 2019 1 response
The decline in Apple earnings has gotten mixed reports about what it means for consumption in China in general. We use a novel data set to look at consumption trends in China. Our conclusion is that consumption is for the most part concentrated in a small portion of wealthy citizens. Their purcha...

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Russia debates criminalizing fake news
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 14 Jan 2019
The Duma (Russian Parliament) has proposed a law that would criminalize offending the state and disseminating disinformation. The Ministry of Communication has argued that it is too far reaching and breaches the constitutional right to freedom of expression. The sanctions would be fines from USD ...

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The CA surplus is expected to increase in 2019-2020
ISRAEL - Report 14 Jan 2019
Highlights: According to the BoI forecast, the CA surplus is expected to improve significantly. Exports are expected to expand by 5.5% in 2019 and 6% in 2020.This is due to the expected sharp growth of Intel exports and natural gas exports from the Leviathan gas field, as well as slowing import g...

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Industrial production still shows no signs of reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 14 Jan 2019
Acceleration of the cyclical recovery will require expansion of gross fixed capital formation, leading to a better labor market and thus faster growth of household consumption. Although there are some favorable conditions, such as the low real interest rate and reduced indebtedness of companies, ...

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Having the cake and eating it, too
TURKEY - Report 13 Jan 2019
We are deviating from the weekly format today -- having sent our brief politics update on Friday (Good Tidings, Citizen, January 11, 2019) -- and provide a quick rundown of recent data releases, and share some thoughts on this coming Wednesday’s rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC...

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The Finance Ministry confirmed a series of good news on 2018 fiscal results
HUNGARY - In Brief 12 Jan 2019
Over the last few weeks, a series of good news on the 2018 government budget results were announced, leaked, rumoured or suggested by various sources. Yesterday, the Finance Ministry confirmed a few of them, minister Varga and state secretary Banai having been the speakers. In the main, they said...

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2019 likely to be difficult for the United Russia Party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 12 Jan 2019
United Russia (UR) is the main pro-Putin party and it is in for a challenging year. UR's ratings are down. The economy is barely growing and trust in officials is falling. No wonder the state wants more control of the internet. Almost half of Russians regions with a directly elected governor have...

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Argentina 2019: At the crossroad again
ARGENTINA - Forecast 11 Jan 2019
Executive Summary The Argentine economy in Q4 performed at close to our previous forecast. For 2019 and 2020, we now present quantitative forecasts for two scenarios, and discuss a third scenario we cannot quantify. Finally, we will try to guess what political impact these three scenarios would h...

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Russia's road toll system in trouble
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 11 Jan 2019
Russia's road toll system is facing difficulty. It is called Platon and was launched in 2015. It involves collecting tolls from vehicles over 12 tons that use federal highways. Truck drivers have it and have blocked roads to weight stations and have impeded construction. Platon is still incomplet...