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The crisis at the Federal Supreme Court (STF) continues. Statements from the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) and Justice André Mendonça to Justice Edson Fachin are expected regarding Mendonça’s conduct in the Banco Master case. Mendonça may also approve a plea bargain related to "Dark Hors...

Economics: Financing to the non-financial private sector weakens in the second quarter of 2026

MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Financing to the non-financial private sector slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2026, in both its domestic and external components. Consumer credit continues to post high growth rates, but that behavior stems mainly from the banking penetration of segments previously served by SOFOMES and f...

Fantastic unrealism

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026

The 2027 budget proposal projects a small primary surplus equivalent to 0.1% of GDP. In addition to falling far short of what is required to place debt on a stabilization path, the government’s estimate depends on an accelerated increase in revenues while economic activity weakens. The revenue pr...

Weekly report, September 8, 2026: Dovish BoI tone, inflation to edge higher, rates on hold

ISRAEL · Report · 08 Sep 2026

BoI officials struck a relatively dovish tone in the past week, citing both weaker underlying growth excluding production abroad and the strong shekel. Softer wage growth also supports this view. Inflation is likely to edge slightly higher in the near term: we expect the August CPI to rise by aro...

Flávio took part in a political rally in São Paulo yesterday, Lula delivered a nationally televised address, and there is no clear frontrunner in the election

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) took part in a political rally on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo on September 7, Brazil’s Independence Day, which drew strong turnout from Bolsonaro’s political base. The demonstration was held under the slogan “Lula and Alexandre de Moraes Out”. President Lula (PT) d...

Imbalanced growth and the debate about monetary policy

ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Argentina has two problems at present: a growth problem and a money problem. Thirty two months into the Milei administration, real GDP growth has been unimpressive and imbalanced. There is scarce creation of quality employment, and real wages in formal economic activities are falling, as are per-...

Bracing for a decisive fifth winter

UKRAINE · Report · 08 Sep 2026

American envoys of Donald Trump — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — are visiting Kyiv for what is being billed as a new round of negotiations. No one expects a breakthrough in these "peace talks," but the visit serves as a gesture of courtesy by the U.S. president, keeping up the appearance that ...

August CPI and budget numbers require a close look from analysts

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2026

We have just received the August CPI-inflation data, which looks kind of all right at first glance, but is not at all very good after all, and the August cash budget figures, which look ugly, while being quite favourable after a closer look. So, the 0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy August CPI-inflation data lo...

A strategic sense of India—a look at economics and policy

INDIA · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Looking beyond the government data, the Indian economy faced difficult times from 2011-2021, and after that there was strong growth. In the most recent data, however, from about April 2025 on, we see difficulties. In this report, we first look at the broad economic evidence and then, at current p...

Politics: Between propaganda and reality — what Sheinbaum's Second State of the Nation Address said, and what it left unsaid

MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Mexico's tradition of presidentialism, once expressed through the ritual of the president's State of the Nation Address to Congress, has effectively been abandoned since 2006 rather than reformed into a genuine mechanism of accountability; Sheinbaum, like her predecessors, delivered her Second St...

Industry and retail sales continued to strengthen in July

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2026

Industrial output grew by 1.7% mom, 4.5% yoy in July, following 3.5% yoy growth in Q2 and 1% yoy expansion in Q1. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100; source: KSH) clearly shows an appreciably stable trend of material strengthening since the start of this year: Even more strength could be seen i...

On the political agenda and today’s MTP

TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2026

Our autumn coverage in politics start with the review of the agenda, which promises to be turbulent and chock full of surprises. Messrs. Ozel and Yavas will be eliminated from the presidential race before 2027, the politics author thinks, while progress in the (Kurdish) Peace Process may trigger ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil spikes with US strikes, PMIs jump in UAE and Kuwait, Kuwait to borrow from Reserve Fund

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Sep 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The war heated up, with the first US strikes in a month and Iranian retaliation against Jordan and the GCC. * Trump and Vance insisted the US is in no hurry to negotiate, despite the looming midterms. * Oil surged back to...

The STF crisis continues to escalate, and the latest polls show Lula ahead of Flávio in the first round but tied in the runoff, so there is currently no clear favorite in the presidential race

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2026

The crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues to escalate. Yesterday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes requested that Justice André Mendonça be investigated as part of the fake news inquiry for abuse of authority. The full Court will now have to decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandr...

Bank of Israel officials strike a relatively dovish tone after the rate cut

ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Sep 2026

Bank of Israel officials strike a relatively dovish tone after the rate cut Following yesterday's 25bp rate cut to 3.25%, comments by Governor Amir Yaron and Deputy Governor Andrew Abir reinforced the relatively dovish message. Both emphasized that underlying growth is considerably more moderate ...