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CHP convention hearing postponed to 24 October
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025

Contrary to majority expectations, the Ankara court trying allegations that CHP Grand Convention, when Ozgur Ozel dethroned Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was rigged, postponed its hearing to 24 October. It is not certain that the bench will reach a verdict, than, either. As I write these lines at 2 PM Ista...

Q2 current account surplus narrows; Israelis invest more abroad, while foreign inflows remain resilient
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025

Yesterday we got some surprisingly weak data from Israel’s current account. The surplus narrowed dramatically to just $0.6 billion in Q2 2025, down from $5.4 billion in Q1. This is the lowest surplus recorded since Q4 2012, signaling a worrying trend for the Israeli economy. The trade deficit wid...

August CPI preview: high monthly inflation of 0.6% is expected, but yearly inflation to fall below the upper bound of the target
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2025

On Monday ((tomorrow), Israel will release the August CPI print, which we will be watching closely. We expect a 0.6% monthly increase, which would bring annual inflation down to around 2.8%, below the Bank of Israel’s 3% upper target range for the first time since September 2024. August has histo...

Lower rates, higher political tensions
TURKEY · Report · 14 Sep 2025

There are more than 50% odds that on Monday an Ankara court will declare the Grand Convention of CHP, where Ozel toppled Kemal Kilicdaroglu, null and void, reinstating the latter as trustee chairman. The first essay explains why: Kilicdaroglu’s views are very convenient for Erdogan, who shows no ...

Mixed messages from the IMF Article IV. The copper mine at Donoso faces an uncertain road ahead. Moody's credit review in November will determine the investment grade status of the sovereign rating.
PANAMA · Report · 12 Sep 2025

The IMF's latest Article IV report shows that Panama’s economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Growth is projected around 4%, potentially reaching 5% if large infrastructure projects move forward. A key IMF warning is the need to increase foreign direct investment and external financing t...

GULF WEEKLY: Allies rally around Qatar, OPEC+ hikes production, UAE posts H1 fiscal surplus
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Sep 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose despite the decision by OPEC+ to begin tapering the May 2023 voluntary cuts. * Revised compensation plans from Kazakhstan postpone its cuts for overproduction until 2026. * An IMF study found that FDI in the GCC ...

The STF convicted Bolsonaro to 27 years of prison, his allies in Congress are pushing for the amnesty bill to be put to a vote, and Motta wants to vote on the income tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2025

The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) concluded its trial on Thursday (September 11) and sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to 27 years and 3 months in the case involving the coup plot. Allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro plan to push for an amnesty bill. São Paulo ...

Government defeat in Buenos Aires Province: Political and economic implications
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Sep 2025

The ruling coalition suffered a 13-point loss in Buenos Aires Province, a stronghold of Peronism. The markets reacted sharply: equities fell up to 25%, bonds weakened, and country risk surpassed 1,000 basis points. Inflation stabilization has come at the cost of recessionary pressures, weak reser...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's fast growing population—a blessing or a curse?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Sep 2025

About two years ago, spurred by William MacAskill’s “What We Owe The Future”, a book that focuses on long-termism and effective altruism, I tried to explore what the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time might mean for the Caucasus and Central A...

Inflation slows, but NBU holds rate at 15.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Sep 2025

On September 11, the NBU Board, as expected, kept the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%. Inflation has been slowing for the past three months, reaching -0.2% m/m and +13.2% y/y in August. However, poor crop yields and persistent uncertainty with no progress in peace talks continue to weigh on the mon...

South Africa’s current account deficit widens in Q2-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Sep 2025

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicates that the deficit on the country’s current account of the balance of payments widened in the second quarter of 2025. The deficit on the current account increased from R47.8 billion in the first quarter to R82.8 billion in the second ...

Russian drones in Polish airspace. What to think?
POLAND · In Brief · 11 Sep 2025

Russian drones in Polish airspace. What to think? The (known) facts and our take During the night and the early morning of September 9, Russian drones entered the Polish airspace multiple times. The incident occurred during the Russian heavy bombing operation on Ukraine involving 400 drones and 1...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2025

The ruble's performance on the FX market has been a major talking point over the past couple of weeks, with its sudden 5.7% depreciation against the dollar since early September, hovering around USD/RUB 85 in recent days. Fundamentally, this isn't surprising, as the ruble remains as strong in rea...

Strong-forint policy has become more accentuated
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Sep 2025

The authorities’ desire to reduce inflation before the election has become more evident than at any time previously. The government cabinet has decided to extend the existing caps on retail margins, and the Economy Minister has hinted at a postponement of an excise tax increase originally planned...

The STF continues Bolsonaro’s trial with Justice Lúcia’s vote, the report on tax reform was submitted, and the House postponed the vote on the Social Electricity Tariff provisional measure
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2025

This afternoon, the First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court resumes the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état, with the vote of Justice Cármen Lúcia. Yesterday, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) received Senator Eduardo...

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