Country Insights

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Bank of Russia cuts key policy rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 10 Sep 2019
On September 6 the Bank of Russia lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points. It is now 7%. This was widely anticipated. The move was actuated by a persistent slowing of inflation as well as poor economic growth. Inflation is now down to 4.3% YoY in August. The Bank of Russia (CBR) has a targ...

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The Parallel Pension Plan PEC may stay on paper and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 09 Sep 2019
The president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP), is working on building a consensus for the first round vote on Pension Reform on the Senate floor. State finance secretaries are presenting suggestions to Congress on Tax Reform. President Jair Bolsonaro has until Thursday, September 12, to s...

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A shot of realism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Forecast 09 Sep 2019
Until recently, many observers believed that with the approval of the pension reform, the real would appreciate and GDP growth would accelerate. However, there has been a wave of downward revisions of the growth projections for 2020 (for 2019 the consensus remains around 0.8%), and instead of str...

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Mexico's government wants to have its cake in 2020 (fiscal discipline) and eat it too
MEXICO - In Brief 09 Sep 2019
Mexico’s government just published its macroeconomic outlook and fiscal plan for 2020. In our view it presents a very optimistic prospect on both accounts. Most likely next year’s economic growth will be below 2%, the fiscal deficit higher than the government foresees (2.7%-3.0% of GDP) and the p...

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Economics: The stabilization funds in a context of shrinking revenues
MEXICO - Report 09 Sep 2019
The extent to which economic growth is expected to deteriorate further in 2019-2020, combined with the precariousness of public revenues and spending, suggest that the Ministry of Finance may use the federal spending budget for 2020 to change the rules that determine the way specific funds are to...

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Politics: Neither surprises nor innovations - notes on the State of the Union address
MEXICO - Report 09 Sep 2019
This report gives our views on the State of the Union address presented by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. We will be reporting on the recently released budget plan in an upcoming In Brief. Despite his best efforts to claim he was delivering his third report on the state of the nation s...

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Ruling party in Russia performs badly in regional elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 09 Sep 2019
On September 8 elections to regional councils were held in many parts of Russia. The ruling party (United Russia) performed badly as anticipated. United Russia lost a third of its seats on Moscow City Council and now only just holds a majority. This is a a symptom of growing public discontent wit...

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Current account and portfolio investment trends: an Alert
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Sep 2019
In this strange cycle through which the Brazilian economy is going through, manufacturing is one of the segments that is suffering the most (the other being civil construction). Although its performance was one of the positive highlights in the GDP figures for the second quarter, when manufacturi...

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Moderating wage pressure supports moderate inflation
ISRAEL - Report 09 Sep 2019
Wage growth appears to have moderated in Q219, supportive of weak inflationary pressure. The fiscal deficit stabilized at 3.8% of GDP in August, and is likely to remain at this level into end-19. Various indicators are pointing to steady growth in Q319, such as strong business and consumer confid...

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Gulf weekly: Saudi shakes up oil, Dubai warns on real estate and Kuwaiti emir in US hospital
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 09 Sep 2019
​It was a dramatic week of changes in the Saudi energy sector which saw MBS’s half-brother, Abdulaziz, appointed as energy minister, the first time a royal has held this portfolio. In Dubai, the emir called for action to address real estate oversupply. France tried to advance its US-Iran mediatio...

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Monthly inflation at 46 percent and rising
VENEZUELA - Report 09 Sep 2019
We revise our August month-on-month inflation forecast to 46 percent, up from our previous forecast of 39 percent. Inflation has sped up markedly since its low of 21 percent in June. This acceleration is owed to a sharp increase in black market dollar prices in August, especially in the last wee...

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Ready for more political turbulence?
TURKEY - Report 08 Sep 2019
The politics author wishes to warn the audience that President Erdogan may be on the war path to secure his political future, which will entail crackdowns on opposition and further tensions with the West. This prophecy bodes ill for economic and investor confidence. Why is Erdogan striking back? ...

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Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 Sep 2019
On September 8 Russia and Ukraine returned prisoners to each other. Those released included a key witness to the downing of the Malaysia Airlines flight in 2014 as well as 24 Ukrainian sailors. Some people are hopeful that this exchange of prisoners prefigures serious peace negotiations. Both sid...

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SAUDI: Royal appointed as energy minister
GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 08 Sep 2019
At the end of a dramatic week of changes in the Saudi energy sector, Abdulaziz bin Salman al Saud, the half-brother of the crown prince, Mohamad bin Salman (MBS), was appointed as energy minister, the first time a royal has held this portfolio. Khalid al-Falih was replaced as energy minister afte...

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Macroeconomic conditions in Apr-May-Jun 2019
INDIA - Report 07 Sep 2019
The Indian economy and the listed firms got strong growth in 1991–2011. After that, there have been greater difficulties. The top line of listed companies (non-oil and non-finance) has seen three weak patches. There was the Lehman crisis, when aggregate sales actually declined. There was a flat p...