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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Deficits Through the Looking Glass
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

In 2025, the public sector nominal deficit reached BRL 1.06 trillion (8.3% of GDP), the second highest ever. Although this figure raises concern, it is not the best indicator of debt dynamics. The evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the operational result, defined as the primary deficit...

Politics: Recent changes in key political positions imply a new Sheinbaum-AMLO power balance
MEXICO · Report · 09 Feb 2026

Recent changes—first at the Financial Intelligence Unit in early August of last year, then at the Attorney General's Office in late November, and most recently last week on Sunday, February 1st, in the coordination of the Morena's Senate Parliamentary Group—empower President Claudia Sheinbaum vis...

The House is expected to vote on the urgent status of the bill on Data Centers, four presidential voting polls are expected for release this week, and the STF should analyze a case against the TCU’s new secretariat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The Lower House is expected to vote this week on an urgent status request for the bill establishing a Tax Regime for Data Centers (Redata), which would create tax incentives for the construction of data centers in Brazil. Four new presidential voting polls are scheduled for release this week. The...

Interpreting the US trade agreement
INDIA · Report · 09 Feb 2026

The interim trade framework between the United States and India, concluded in early February 2026, is an important moment in New Delhi's strategic calculus. While the agreement de-escalates a threatened trade war—reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from a potential 50 percent aggregate to a uni...

A little bit of this, a little bit of that
TURKEY · Report · 08 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Turkey’s (Kurdish) Peace Process got a boost from a new peace deal in Syria, but at home the going is very slow and torturous, because Peace Committee members can’t find a way to finesse Ocalan’s “right to hope” in their report to the Grand Assembly. President Erdogan is changing tack in his C...

Tisza published its policy platform document yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2026

Roughly two months ahead of the election, Tisza published its policy platform on February 7, a 240-page document under the title: 'Foundations of a functioning and humane Hungary'. According to speakers from Tisza, this was prepared by more than 1000 experts over the past one and a half years. Us...

IMF program struggles to get off the ground
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2026

Bloomberg wrote about the issues surrounding the new IMF program. The picture presented by the journalist only needs a few additional details. The Ministry of Finance developed a proposal that was very poorly analyzed. The key issue is that tax compliance costs in Ukraine under the general tax sy...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman mediates US-Iran talks, Qatar signs major LNG deals, Kuwait reshuffles cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oman mediated US-Iran talks, and the market-implied risk of US strikes this month halved to 30%. * The Saudi flash GDP reading showed non-oil growth slowing to a two-year low of 3.2% in Q4. * The UAE’s PMI rose to 55.9, t...

In an interview Lula said that both Haddad and Alckmin have a role to play in São Paulo, Justice Dino ordered the suspension of “extra perks” in the public sector, and next week should be quiet as it precedes Carnaval
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2026

Yesterday, in an interview with UOL, President Lula said that both Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin have a role to play in São Paulo. Both have so far resisted running for elective office in October, but pressure is mounting. Yesterday, Supreme Court Justice Flá...

Swallowing frogs, kissing the ring, and doing the responsible thing
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Why did Donald Trump want to meet with Gustavo Petro in Washington? Probably because it was cheaper to scold Petro face to face; to ask for real commitment and actions that comply with the U.S. agenda; and to bring him to the White House to kiss the ring, instead of intimidating him with the U.S....

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Feb 2026

Probably the most cited economic risks for Uzbekistan over the years have been its persistent CA and fiscal gaps. Indeed, the twin deficits ballooned from a virtual balance in 2017 to a hefty 12.6% of GDP in 2023. The surge in fiscal spending in the post-COVID years and political cycle-related lo...

Two presidential voting polls were released yesterday, Lula attended a dinner last night with congressional leaders, and the CPMI on the INSS may hear from the INSS president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2026

Yesterday, two presidential voting polls were released, both showing similar results. A poll conducted by Meio/Ideia Big Data indicates that President Lula (PT) leads in all five tested first-round scenarios. The Gerp Institute also confirmed the polarized landscape between President Lula (PT) an...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2026

The FX market has stayed steady despite various external pressures. Interestingly, investors seem to overlook the drop in oil revenues for the budget. Reports say the discount on Russian oil to Brent hit $27/bbl in early February. Considering US pressure on India, a fall in oil-related export rev...

Inflation remained elevated in January, the NBK held the base rate steady amid mounting uncertainty
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Feb 2026

While the initial economic and financial figures for January don’t look too bad, growing uncertainty has led the National Bank to keep the base rate at 18%. The NBK thinks inflation expectations are still high and seems set on holding the base rate steady for about six months. Y-o-y inflation is ...

The Senate approved the People’s Gas Provisional Measure, the government’s priority is now the “6x1” work schedule, and Haddad said he presented two names to Lula for positions at the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2026

The Senate concluded yesterday the vote on the People’s Gas provisional measure (MP 1,313/25). As no substantive changes were made, the bill now moves to the President’s desk for final approval. Another government priority is ending the so-called “6x1” work schedule. According to Congressman Lind...

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