GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil is back at $110 amidst more attacks on shipping, despite some Hormuz transits. * There were new Iranian strikes on the UAE and Kuwait, as well as ships near Qatar and Oman. * Trump called Iran’s latest proposal ...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2-15

CIS POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2026

Main headlines: - There were no Russia-Ukraine talks, although Putin, Zelensky and Western countries have all made positive statements about peace. - Trump takes credit for a shaky Victory Day ceasefire; Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners, corpses and strikes. - Ukrainian ...

The Philippine Senate: Impeaching the culture of impunity

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 May 2026

Last May 11, the Philippines’ House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte on allegations involving misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, SALN discrepancies, corruption, and threats against top government officials. The Articles of Impeachment w...

Webinar replay: Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook - What changed?

TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2026

What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How effectively is President Erdoğan managing the assoc...

The government shows signs of increased approval ratings, the leaked audio recordings of Flávio and Vorcaro have caused concern among his allies, and today is the deadline for amendments to 6x1 work schedule PECs

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2026

The week ends on a positive note for the government. For the opposition, the balance is negative. President Lula began the week by announcing an R$11 billion public package for public security, which is the issue voters are most concerned about according to opinion polls. A new Genial/Quaest poll...

For Whom the Bell Tolls?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2026

Copom rightly expresses discomfort with the rise in long-term inflation expectations in response to the oil shock, whose effects should dissipate before affecting inflation at more distant horizons. We argue in this report that this pattern results from the Central Bank’s stance since 2021, marke...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth moderates in the aftermath of last year’s overheating

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 May 2026

Recent economic statistics show that Kazakhstan’s economy resumed growing after the sharp drop in January caused by the oil export disruption due to the damage at the CPC sea oil terminal. However, January’s shock will still have some impact on overall growth in 2026, which will be slower than la...

Topic of the week: May 2026 CCA Slide deck - fresh views reflecting Iran developments

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 May 2026

This is a mid-quarter edition of the quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia, comprising a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structur...

Flávio sought financial support from Vorcaro to make a film about his father, Viana filed a request to create a CPMI into Banco Master, and government allies intend to file a complaint against Flávio in the Senate Ethics Council

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2026

The news that Flavio Bolsonaro sought financial support from former banker Daniel Vorcaro to make a film about former President Jair Bolsonaro caught the political world by surprise and represents a major setback for the senator’s campaign at this stage. The issue is expected to impact polling nu...

Target up, forecast up, band out

TURKEY · Report · 14 May 2026

In today’s much-anticipated Inflation Report, the second of the year, the CBRT raised the interim target to 24% from 16%, the yearend inflation forecast to 26% (from 18%, midpoint) and discontinued the practice of providing a forecast band around its midpoint forecast, the latter because of excep...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2026

About a week ago, the Ministry of Finance announced that from May 8 to June 4 it would allocate R110 billion from oil-and-gas revenues to buy FX and gold on the domestic market, in line with the fiscal rule. The Government had originally planned to return to the market in July, but moved the date...

Israel moves closer to early elections; election date expected next week

ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 May 2026

Coalition Whip Ofir Katz submitted a bill on Wednesday to dissolve the 25th Knesset, joined by the heads of all coalition factions, after ultra-Orthodox parties announced, they would work to bring down the government. The announcement reflects growing frustration among ultra-Orthodox parties over...

Disinflation continues, exchange rate gap becomes entrenched

VENEZUELA · Report · 13 May 2026

Monthly inflation fell to 10.6 percent in April from 13.1 percent in March thanks to stronger oil revenues. Central bank forex sales rose, the market rate fell, the pace of official exchange rate depreciation slowed, and the exchange rate gap narrowed. Moreover, April brought an easing of sanctio...

Tariffs on gold, silver, platinum

INDIA · Report · 13 May 2026

The Indian macroeconomy is navigating a dual external shock originating from the Persian Gulf: a contraction in export demand alongside a pronounced escalation in petroleum import costs. The optimal macroeconomic adjustment to these terms-of-trade frictions operates through the price mechanism, s...

Lula is focused on measures aimed at improving his approval ratings, the Public Security PEC is expected to move forward next week, and debate over ending the 6x1 work schedule continues according to the timeline

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2026

President Lula remains firmly focused on measures aimed at improving his approval ratings. Yesterday, two new initiatives were announced. The federal government launched the “Brazil Against Organized Crime” program. Lula also signed a provisional measure eliminating the so-called “clothing tax,” ...