GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

THE FROGS AND THE SCORPION As the nominal public deficit reached 10% of GDP in the 12 months ended in June, what previously concerned only economists, part of the financial market, and a few politicians has spilled over into broader circles, reaching the electoral arena.

A pivotal week for Flávio and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2026

The period for party conventions ends on Wednesday (August 5). This will be a decisive week for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who is seeking to bring the União Progressista Federation (União Brasil–PP) and the Republicanos party onto his presidential ticket. Congress and the Judiciary resume the...

No respite for the CBRT in the July data

TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2026

Consumer price rose by 1.8%, m/m, in July, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation easing slightly to 31.8%, from 32.1% in June. Producer price inflation came in at 1.5%, with the 12-month PPI inflation rate also falling modestly to 27.8%, from 28.1% in the previous mon...

The PT officially launched Lula’s reelection bid, the first presidential debate is scheduled for August 23, and the Copom will meet to decide on the benchmark interest rate this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2026

At the PT's national convention held this Sunday (August 2) in São Paulo, the party officially launched President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (PT) bid for reelection. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) will once again serve as his running mate, recreating the ticket that won the 2022 election. ...

Inflationary pressures and political tensions accompany stronger economic growth

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 03 Aug 2026

The Dominican economy performed considerably better in H1 2026 than expected at the beginning of Q2, despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty following the escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict. Economic activity accelerated to 4.7% and 6.4% y/y in May and June, lifting H1 growth to 4.5%, drive...

Politics: 2027 electoral scenarios and their implications

MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026

Morena enters the 2027 midterms as the dominant force. Its ceiling, however, is already visible: vote intention hovers between 39% and 47%, with another six to nine points from the PT and PVEM, and the realistic direction of the trend is downward. The party's assets — a consolidated social base, ...

GULF WEEKLY: War restarts after pause, Saudi deficit narrows, Kuwait privatizes pipelines

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jul 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * After a brief pause, the US-Iran conflict restarted, although oil remains well down from last week, at about $87. * The Houthis and allied Iraqi militias attacked Saudi oil sites and tankers, prompting counterstrikes. * T...

The stones in de la Espriella’s shoes

COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jul 2026

President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella seems to have initially believed he could single-mindedly push his agenda forward, and that Congress would fall into line. By now he surely realizes that won’t happen. Former president Álvaro Uribe’s Centro Democrático (CD) party was not happy that, despit...

Senator Tereza Cristina may have been chosen as Flávio Bolsonaro’s VP, Wednesday is the deadline for parties to formally nominate candidates, and Justice Mendonça has opened an investigation into Lula’s son

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jul 2026

Senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) met with presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) to discuss the possibility of joining his ticket as the vice-presidential nominee. So far, there has been no confirmation that she has been chosen for the position. Wednesday is the deadline for political partie...

Webinar replay - Venezuela: The road ahead

VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2026

After Venezuela was shaken by twin earthquakes, bringing a tragic loss of life and destruction, the country must rebuild and try to move forward. How are recovery and reconstruction efforts proceeding? What are the economic and political ramifications for the country? How is Venezuela faring on o...

The Mega Bill nears the finish line

CHILE · Report · 31 Jul 2026

Chile’s Reconstruction and Economic and Social Development Bill (also known as the Mega Bill) is now approaching the final stage of the legislative process. Combining tax cuts, employment subsidies and regulatory reform, the bill has survived nearly every legislative hurdle pretty much intact. No...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's fiscal strategy 2027-2029 sees no FX drama

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Jul 2026

The Uzbek sum is set to bend, not break. This is how the new 2027-2029 Fiscal Strategy sees the UZS—no FX cliff, but a slow, controlled crawl. This makes Tashkent’s FX outlook almost boring, and that is the bullish part. Uzbekistan’s new 2027–2029 Fiscal Strategy no longer publishes an explici...

Strong growth through May, Canal progress, and complex mining talks

PANAMA · Report · 30 Jul 2026

Economic activity continued to exceed expectations through May (+5.2%). Growth became broad-based as commerce, manufacturing, tourism, construction, and logistics contributed to the expansion. External demand remained the principal driver, supported by strong Canal activity, tourism, and the Coló...

China’s pressure point — the banks

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Jul 2026

China’s economy continues to slow as the property market fails to reach bottom. The technology sector, including EVs, and exports, remain strong but are not large enough to replace real estate. One of the key pressure points in China’s economy is the banking system. For decades, the government ha...

Monetary policy: NBU raises key policy rate to 15.5% in a preventive move amid rising risks

UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jul 2026

The NBU Board raised the key policy rate by 0.5 ppt to 15.5%, effective 31 July. This was the first rate increase since the beginning of the year. Recall that in January the NBU cut the rate from 15.5% to 15.0%, signalling the start of an easing cycle. However, no further easing followed since th...