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The Kyrgyz som is being held on an exceptionally tight leash. The central bank has sold almost US$1.5bn through nine interventions in 2026—already far above the full-year total for 2025—yet the USDKGS has barely moved from 87.45. At this point, the policy looks increasingly like defense of a leve...

The South African Reserve Bank holds its ground as inflation reemerges

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Jul 2026

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it is leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged following the completion of this week’s meeting. This comes after it increased rates by 25 bps during the committee’s previous meeting in May 2026. As such, t...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2026

Minfin has decided to delay all primary OFZ placements until “market conditions improve.” The situation might change in the second half of September, when the government is expected to present the 2027–29 budget draft, potentially easing concerns over the deficit and its inflationary impact in th...

The dominoes are falling: the Prosecutor General resigned yesterday

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jul 2026 · 1 response

Gábor Bálint Nagy, Hungary's Prosecutor General resigned yesterday and will be reportedly out of office by August 25. Mr. Nagy is a key name of PM Magyar's list of the 'removables', or as he more often calls them, the 'Fidesz-puppets', those constitutionally independent, in principle politically ...

Demand slowdown to the rescue

TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2026

As expected, the CBRT/MPC left the policy (weekly-repo) and O/N rates unchanged today. There were a few relatively minor changes/updates to the statement, all delivered in the first paragraph, which are also sort of self-evident, in our view.

Lula signed an MP aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign continues to face negative headlines, and Bolsonaro family members continue to fight among themselves

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2026

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) signed a new provisional measure (MP) on Wednesday (July 22) aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program. The measure is expected to provide R$18.5 billion for the investment and trade support initiative’s third phase. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) president...

Argentina's elusive quest for remonetization

ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Jul 2026

The Achilles’ heel of the Argentine economy is the lack of remonetization in pesos. Episodes of solid growth with low inflation over the past 50 years occurred in the 1990s (especially 1991–1997) and the 2000s (especially 2003–2007). In both periods, growth with disinflation rested on a strong ri...

KUWAIT: $6bn bond issuance sees strong investor demand, despite the war

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jul 2026

Kuwait issued $6bn in 3-10 year bonds. It has not been able to export oil for nearly five months, and the deficit for the current fiscal year could exceed -20% of GDP. It will therefore need to issue more debt later this year and/or draw on its Reserve Fund for Future Generations for the first ti...

Inflation can wait

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jul 2026

We revisit the issue of the speed of inflation convergence to the target. We show that, even when the Central Bank’s inflation projections, based on the Selic rate path expected by market analysts, are above the target, the Copom very rarely makes a decision different from those anticipated in th...

A Real Time Big Data poll shows Caiado narrowly leading Lula in a runoff, Flávio is struggling to secure alliances ahead of the elections, and the new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products take effect today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2026

A Real Time Big Data poll released yesterday showed PSD candidate Ronaldo Caiado narrowly leading President Lula in a hypothetical presidential runoff, with 44% to Lula’s 43%. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, however, Lula would prevail by 45% to the senator’s 42%. In addition, Flávio is struggling to s...

Zelensky reshuffles military leadership as mobilization pressures mount

UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2026

After a week of street protests over the dismissal of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi with Mykhailo Drapatyi. Recall that after the dismissal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet, one narrative began to spread that the enti...

Ozel finally launches New Party

TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jul 2026

It is stating the obvious, but I need to write this Market Brief to put a footnote to Turkish political history. At an emotional and defiant speech at the parliamentary caucus, Ozel finally heralded that he is founding “a” or “the New” Party. Depending on the source 82 or 85 CHP MPs attended the ...

The MNB base rate fell further, to 5.75% today, just as promised

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Jul 2026

At today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council reduced the base rate further by 25 bps, to 5.75%. This was no surprise at all; the Governor actually promised this cut a month ago, saying this step would be done, and another one of similar size was coming in August as well, ...

Double shock: Earthquake emergency and lower oil revenue

VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Jul 2026

The twin earthquakes of June 24 altered the macroeconomic landscape just as the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) was beginning to experiment with a new exchange rate regime. Reconstruction will increase public expenditure needs at a time when deteriorating oil revenue reduces the room to finance t...

Ukraine secures IMF funds, but the political cost of implementation is mounting

UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jul 2026

The IMF Executive Board completed the First Review of Ukraine's four-year, $8.1 billion Extended Fund Facility on July 20, releasing an immediate disbursement of about $690 million. Cumulative disbursements under the programme now reach roughly $2.2 billion — about 27% of the full package, five m...