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A surprising Invamer poll rocks the political landscape
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2025 · 1 response

After a long period without official polls due to a legal ban, Invamer published on Nov. 30th a surprising poll on the presidential election. The main result is a substantial jump in leftist Iván Cepeda’s vote intention, surpassing right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and centrist Sergio Fajardo,...

An unexpected turn of fiscal events
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Dec 2025 · 1 response

Deterioration in the primary balance is expected to be fully compensated for by lower interest payments, so the new expected NCG deficit number for 2025 should be the same 6.7% of GDP as posted in 2024. In terms of debt, things might be somewhat improving on that end too: due to the effects of de...

CIS ESSENTIAL POLITICS: November 17-30
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025

- The US presents a 28-point peace plan that horrifies Europe and mildly impresses Russia. - The corruption scandal in Ukraine claims Yermak. - Azerbaijan arrests a main opposition leader. - The Kyrgyzstani election results in a total victory for Japarov. - Ukraine ta...

Q3 growth: surprisingly strong
TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2025

The Turkish economy expanded by 1.1%, q/q, and 3.7%, y/y, in the third quarter of the year, with the quarter-on-quarter (sequential) growth rate exceeding forecasts quite visibly, including our expectation of positive yet anemic growth in the quarter. What is more, all demand engines were ramped ...

Bad moon rising
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025

Brazil’s fiscal situation is fragile and requires deep adjustments. Although the government should meet its target in 2025, not only has the target itself lost its meaning, but—yet more importantly—the result remains far from satisfactory, with a growing primary deficit feeding the rapid expansio...

Messias’s appointment to the STF is facing strong resistance in the Senate, the Senate will resume discussions of the bill that taxes fintechs, and the rapporteur of the Anti-Faction bill should submit his report this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025

The appointment of the Attorney General, Jorge Messias, to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) is facing strong resistance in the Federal Senate. The President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), had been advocating for Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD–MG) for the vacancy. The Senate’s Economic Af...

Venezuela: Between Pressure and Dialogue
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Dec 2025

So far, the Trump administration has built a propaganda—or psyops—apparatus that raises pressure on Caracas without risking open military action. It follows the logic of Latin American soap operas: each episode ends on a cliffhanger. The question remains: what does it hope to achieve? The narr...

Rate cut and peace hopes
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2025

By the urging of MHP leader Bahceli, a three-member delegation from the Peace Commission (PC) visited former PKK leader Ocalan in Imrali Island. Neither the delegation, nor the Commission, issued a statement on the exchange, but DEM Party parliamentary deputy whip Mrs Gulistan Kocyigit gave a len...

Another hurdle passed: Moody's affirmed its Baa2/Negative sovereign credit rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Nov 2025

On Friday, November 28, Moody's affirmed its investment grade credit rating for the Hungarian government, despite fears that a negative rating decision may follow the most recent loosening up of fiscal targets for this year and 2026. There is only one rating review date still scheduled by a Top-3...

What does Yermak’s dismissal mean amid the new season of the peace deal’ series?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2025

It took three weeks for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to grasp that the dismissal of his Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak was inevitable. Zelenskiy tried to maneuver to protect his comrade, but the searches the National Anti-Corruption Bureau conducted in Yermak’s apartment became the final trigger, ...

Reform momentum and fiscal repair: South Africa’s slow shift toward stability
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 28 Nov 2025

• South Africa’s growth: South African economy’s real GDP was 0.7% higher in H1-2025 than it was during the corresponding period in 2024. The uncertainty around tariffs was already weighing on the economy in the second quarter, but the full impact only materialized in the third quarter, when the ...

Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate and inflation to remain key variables to watch amid the forthcoming tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Nov 2025

The Kazakh parliament recently approved the updated government’s macroeconomic forecast for 2026-2028 after the final polishing of next year’s republican budget. The official forecast assumes GDP to grow by 5.4%, which is only slightly higher than the expected average annual growth for the next t...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai’s budget, Acwa Power finances 15GW of renewables, Bahrain downgraded & Kuwait upgraded
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Nov 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Aramco is considering privatization of its oil export terminals and selling some real estate assets. * Acwa Power secured $5.9bn in financing for 15GW of solar and wind projects. * PIF sold a 3.3% stake in Mecca developer...

Congress overturned Lula’s vetoes of the environmental licensing bill, Congressman Aguinaldo may present his report on the AI bill next week, and the Senate will analyze the bill that taxes fintechs and bets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2025

The government suffered new defeats in Congress. Lawmakers overturned President Lula’s vetoes of the environmental licensing bill (PL 2159/21), except for the provisions related to the Special Environmental Licensing (LAE), which are addressed in Provisional Measure 1308/25. Next week marks the b...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia leading, Armenia rising, Azerbaijan stable in South Caucasus Banking Review
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Nov 2025

I just completed a comparative report of the banking sectors and broader business climates of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan across 17 thematic pillars. My South Caucasus Banking & Investment Review 2025 finds that Georgia is still leading the South Caucasus in banking and investment metrics wi...

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