Country Insights

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US sanctions on Russia and 10 diplomats expelled
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Apr 2021
On April 15 Washington announced additional sanctions and said these were hitting back for meddling in elections and for a huge cyberattack. US banks face extra restrictions on trading in Russian sovereign debt. 32 individuals who allegedly interfered in the 2020 elections are now subject to sanc...

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OFZ market is sanctioned by the US, albeit moderately
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Apr 2021
Today, US President Mr. Biden signed an executive order, which imposes new sanctions against Russia. According to the document US financial institutions from “participation in the primary market for ruble or non-ruble denominated bonds issued after June 14, 2021” by Minfin, CBR, or National Wealt...

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Government in the minority on the Senate Covid CPI committee
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 15 Apr 2021
The members of the Senate’s Covid CPI have been nominated, and the government is in the minority on this committee. The government is now looking to prevent the opposition from obtaining one of the CPI’s key positions: president and rapporteur. The Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO) should be submitt...

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The Huarong default and China’s macroeconomy
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 15 Apr 2021
China’s State Council Tuesday issued a decree ordering a “deepening” of reform of the budget management system. The key point is an order to reduce financial risk and increase transparency of local government finance. This order follows the recent cancellation of the Ant Group IPO and stricter re...

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MPC stays on hold, but turns visibly more dovish, as expected
TURKEY - Report 15 Apr 2021
At today’s regular rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT, under the new Governor and two new MPC members, left the policy rate unchanged at 19% (simple; see chart), but modified the language in a markedly more dovish direction.

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Yandex faces investigation for manipulating searches
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 14 Apr 2021
On April 14 the Russian competition authority is investigating the nation's main tech company on suspicion that it is exploiting its market dominance. Yandex is accused of unfairly favoring its own services.The Federal Anti Monopoly Service said Yandex has not heeded an earlier warning. Shares in...

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Inflation slows and may decelerate faster than expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Apr 2021
Rosstat reported that inflation was at 0.1% over the seven days ending on April 12. From April 1 to April 12, it also remained at 0.1%. There are more signs of gradually declining prices across a growing number of products of the consumption basket. These observations generally support GKEM Analy...

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Progress on Covid vaccination and reopening
HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Apr 2021 1 response
On April 7, the night curfew, in force since November 11, was shortened by two hours, to between 10pm and 5am, and the time when shops that can be kept open otherwise are required to close was modified to 9.30pm from 7pm. All that was done with reference to the fact that the total number of those...

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The STF to analyze two important matters today
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Apr 2021
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will analyze two important matters today. First, Minister Luís Roberto Barroso’s decision to decree the installation of the COVID CPI in the Federal Senate will be reviewed. His decision will likely be approved, as there was a similar case in the court previously t...

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​Despite slight inflation surprise, core inflation moderates
ISRAEL - In Brief 14 Apr 2021
Inflation in March was up 0.6% m/m and 0.2% y/y (from zero last month), slightly higher than market expectation (and ours) of 0.5% m/m. A closer look at the details actually points to a moderation of underlying inflation, with core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) declining ...

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The South African bond market remains vulnerable to the country’s weak fundamentals
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 13 Apr 2021
Yields on South African bonds have been particularly volatile since March 2020 largely on the back of the Covid-19 pandemic and the country losing its last investment grade credit rating from a major rating agency, further downgrades, and the subsequent non-resident net sales of bonds. Moreover, ...

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Russian timber company's IPO aims at USD 400 million
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 13 Apr 2021
On April 12 Segezha announced that it is launching an IPO in Moscow. However, no date has been set. Segezha has doubled its income since 2016. JP Morgan, UBS and VTB Capital are going to be global coordinators and bookrunners for the IPO.The IPO is anticipated to bring the company's value up to U...

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Flights to Turkey severely limited
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 13 Apr 2021
On April 12 Moscow seriously restricted flights to Turkey. Over 500,000 Russians are seeking a refund. Flights to Turkey will be severely limited April 14 to June 1. That is because of an increasing number of coronavirus cases in Turkey. Flights to Tanzania have been temporarily banned.On April 1...

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Covid-19 CPI: Questions and answers
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 12 Apr 2021
In this report, we review some of the most frequently asked questions about the Covid-19 CPI in the Federal Senate. Following STF Minister Luis Roberto Barroso’s decision (which should be ratified by the plenary of the Supreme Court), what are the next steps for the installation of the CPI? ...

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Politics: Major offensive against election officials
MEXICO - Report 12 Apr 2021
With the elections two months away, the president and his party have begun a steady barrage of attacks and threats against the National Electoral Institute (INE), the organizer and arbitrator of the electoral process. The offensive began in earnest after the institute voted on March 25 to rule sc...