RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Oct 2021

On October 17 Russia broke its own record for new diagnoses yet again. 34,000 new cases have been reported. There were almost 1,000 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours. There are only 20,000 beds left in hospitals. These will all soon be full.The Health Minister urged all retired physicians to get vac...

HUNGARY - In Brief 17 Oct 2021

The second round of the united opposition's primary election, which was intended to select the common candidate for prime minister in next April's parliamentary election, ended last night. It drew 662 thousand voters, 29 thousand more than the first round, meaning truly great electoral interest, ...

TURKEY - Report 17 Oct 2021 1 response

October brought more Brownian motion to the boiling cauldron of Turkish politics, which makes it even more difficult to read the trends. We spot the slow-motion collapse of Erdogan’s power as well as the fortunes of the AKP-MHP alliance. The administration has lost its ability to control the nati...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Oct 2021

Several Chinese provinces are rationing electricity due to a paucity of power. In late September 2021 China asked the Russian electricity company Inter RAO to supply more electricity.China is striving to go carbon neutral by 2060. This will change the energy market considerably. In the medium ter...

VENEZUELA - In Brief 16 Oct 2021

A new round of negotiations was scheduled to begin in Mexico tomorrow, October 17. At the time of writing, the Maduro government announced it suspends negotiations in protest against Alex Saab’s extradition to the United States by Cape Verde on money laundering charges. It’s too soon to tell how ...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 15 Oct 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $85 as the IEA lifted its demand forecasts, and Saudi played down a faster taper. * The IMF’s latest WEO forecasts see the GCC returning to a general fiscal balance in 2023. * MBS launched the Saudi National ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 15 Oct 2021

Given the difficulty the government faced in approving the privatization of Eletrobras, Bolsonaro is unlikely to start another political battle for the privatization of Petrobras at this time. His statement, however, does help to show the general public that he remains dissatisfied with the rise ...

ISRAEL - In Brief 15 Oct 2021

September’s CPI was in line with expectations Inflation in September rose by 0.2% and 2.5% y/y (up from 2.2% in August). Core inflation accelerated to 2.1% y/y from 1.9% last month. The main items which surprised on the upside were processed food prices (up 0.6% and 2.7% y/y) and fruits and veget...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Oct 2021

On October 14 Rosneft sold its 5% stake in a huge Arctic Oil project to Swiss and Singaporean commodity trading houses. This is the Vostok Oil Project, which is intended to exploit currently untapped resources in the Arctic and produce over 700 million barrels of oil per annum by 2030. That was R...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Oct 2021

Currently, the ICMS tax on fuels is calculated based on the average price, revised every 15 days according to a price survey at the service stations. In other legislative progress, after approval in the Committee, which has been scheduled for next Tuesday, the court-ordered payments PEC may be in...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 14 Oct 2021

On October 14 the Russian President announced the new policy. His country is the 3rd biggest emitter of carbon due relying so heavily on oil, gas and coal exports. Putin said oil and coal will be used less and less. It had been mooted that Russia would give itself 80 years to be carbon neutral bu...

TURKEY - In Brief 14 Oct 2021

I intended to pen this Market Brief yesterday,focusing on Erdogan’s hint at a new military campaign in Tel Rifat (Map below) and the rising chorus of opposition leaders taking claims of political assassinations seriously. Within 24 hours, a major scandal broke out concerning TUGVA, an educational...

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 13 Oct 2021

In September, the government submitted the 2022-2024 rolling budget to the Duma along with the estimate of the budget execution in 2021 and the medium-term economic outlook. The government has usually been very conservative in its estimates and frequently drafted the budget with a deficit, but th...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 Oct 2021

Yesterday, the rapporteur of the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels, Dr. Jaziel, submitted a favorable report. As a complementary bill, it needs at least 257 votes in the House. In Washington DD, Minister Paulo Guedes will participate in the 4th Meeting of Finance Ministers and Presidents...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 13 Oct 2021

What we know at this time:The period for filing of certificates of candidacy (COC) closed last Friday and six publicly recognizable figures are running for the presidency. In alphabetical order: Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso, Senator Ronald dela Rosa, Senator Panfilo Lacson, former Senator Ferd...