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Iran War Day 8-9: Khamenei’s son succeeds, oil spikes to $110
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Mar 2026

Highlights: Mojtaba Khamenei has succeeded his father, signaling hardline continuity and no appetite for a negotiated exit from the war. President Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf neighbors and pledged to halt cross-border strikes, but they continued and struck more civilian targets, exposing intern...

Turkey flees, war finds her
TURKEY · Report · 08 Mar 2026

Like most experts, we had anticipated that Iran, the US and Israel will battle one another way before the Second Iran War began, but failed to see how fast it progressed, its broadening scope to neutral third parties and the ongoing escalation, rather than a consensus on finding common ground for...

Political risk of domestic origin is increasing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2026

What is just happening is nothing else than what we have been predicting for quite a while. You may call it uncertainty around the election, instability or simply political risk, and it exists to a great extent separately from the many problems and threats stemming from today's troublesome extern...

GlobalSource Partners' Fan Gang is available for conference calls and speaking engagements
CHINA · Report · 06 Mar 2026

GlobalSource Partners' Fan Gang is available for conference calls and speaking engagements. Although he no longer publishes regular reports, please feel free to browse his previous publications for insight into his knowledge and expertise.

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf crudes hit $100 as Hormuz blockage continues, some hydrocarbon and downstream production shuts down, Iranian attacks on the GCC continue
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched $90, Oman/Murban $100, and Qatar’s energy minister warned of $150. * Hormuz remains largely closed, with no visible action on US escort or insurance plans. * Saudi Arabia is increasing oil loading on t...

South Africa’s economy: gradual stabilization amid persistent structural constraints
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 06 Mar 2026

• Bonds: The South African bond market strengthened considerably through 2025 and into early 2026, marking a clear shift from the volatility and risk discounting that characterized the prior years, with several positive domestic developments underpinning the improvement. However, rising geopolit...

The Banco Master case continues to cause repercussions in Brasília, today marks the start of the party-switching window, and STF President Justice Fachin will discuss judicial compensation next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2026

Revelations about the conversations between the owner of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, and the authorities continue to emerge and are generating repercussions in Brasília. According to journalist Malu Gaspar, one of the last messages Vorcaro sent on the day he was arrested, November 17 of last ye...

Webinar replay: War in Iran - Implications for the Gulf and Israel
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2026

As war breaks out with Iran, what's happening on the ground? How might the Gulf states respond to Iranian attacks? What are the short-term and long-term economic and market implications for Israel and the Gulf countries? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Glob...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opaque BoP flows sustain Kyrgyzstan’s sanctions overhang
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Mar 2026

I previously hypothesized a direct link between what I dubbed the "rogue" E&O in Kyrgyzstan's BoP and the sanctions on the banks that the EU imposed last Oct. The Feb 26 visit of EU Sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan to Bishkek to warn the government that its heavy “re-exports” to Russia of dual-us...

Israel weekly preview: missile fire declines but endgame unclear as pressure on Iran rises; budget deadline and key economic data ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Mar 2026

A difficult week has passed for Israel since early Saturday morning, when the second Israel-Iran war began. For most of the week, large parts of the economy were effectively shut down, and missile launches toward Israel from Iran and later from Hezbollah sent Israelis repeatedly to shelters throu...

Wage growth eases despite a tight labor market
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

Today the Central Bureau of Statistics published wage data for January. When we analyze the figures, we see a clear slowdown in the pace of wage growth in the final quarter of 2025. Trend data show that nominal wages increased by 2.2% in current prices between October and December 2025, compared ...

January 2026 statistics points to negative y-o-y economic growth and looks puzzling
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

Rosstat reported that in January, output of the five basic sectors — industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade — fell by a sharp 3.2% y-o-y, following y-o-y growth of 4.0% in December and 1.4% for 2025 overall. Such big swings in economic trends can signal major turning point...

The House approved the Public Security PEC, the CCJ should hold public hearings on reducing working hours and ending the 6x1 work schedule, and the Senate approved the Mercosur-EU trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2026

The plenary of the Lower House concluded the vote on the Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) submitted by the Executive Branch. The text now moves to the Senate. Yesterday morning, the Lower House Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a request by Congressman Paulo...

Shockwaves from Tehran: Quantifying the Economic Impact on the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

In my Mon note I expressed bewilderment at the lack of proper reaction of Armenian authorities to the fiery situation unfolding at their southern border. In a video gone viral in the country, the PM Pashinyan was caught on camera munching on corn in a bus that was a on campaign tour in the countr...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

The Finance Ministry plans to revise the cut-off oil price that determines operations with the National Wealth Fund. Under the current fiscal rule, if oil prices fall below $59 per barrel, the government sells CNY or gold from the NWF to offset lost energy export revenues. In December 2025 and Ja...

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