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Getting used to the new normal
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Jan 2023

Contrary to expectations, President Gustavo Petro is managing his politics quite well -- and for some that creates disconcert and awe. Constant criticism of him falls mostly on deaf ears. This is the historical moment for Petro's ideas and leadership, and ordinary people want to know if they were...

Webinar replay: Venezuela in 2023: What to expect?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jan 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses Venezuela's macro outlook and the prospects for growth in 2023. How will politics affect economic recovery? With the dire situation of Venezuela's oil industry and the limited scope of Chevron's ...

Lula will meet with governors today, Congress and the Judiciary resume activities next week, and the Central Bank will meet to decide on the interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2023

In the meeting with Lula, governors should discuss federal compensation for revenue losses caused by the change in the ICMS collection rules – especially on fuel – and the borrowing capacity of the states. Congress and the Judiciary will resume their activities next week. Also next week, the Cent...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Jan 2023

Jan 6 The Civil Aviation Committee: Kazakhstan has extended the "open skies" regime for foreign airlines until 2028 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have agreed on the conditions for the construction of the Kambarata HPP-1 with a capacity of 1860 MW will generate 5 bln kW-H...

Russia increasing military manufacturing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2023

On January 26 the head of Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, said that it was speeding up the production of ammunition because of the Ukraine War. He denied that Russia was running short of munitions. He claimed that Rostec had multiplied production due to the Defense Min...

Georgia benefits from Russian immigration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2023

In 2022 Georgia's banks received over USD 2 billion in transfers from Russia. Over 112,000 Russians moved to the country. Most were men aged 18-35. But some were older men, women and children. The influx of Russians has boosted the economy 10%. Some of the immigrants are anti-war liberals. But th...

A marked deceleration in policy normalization by the South African Reserve Bank at the start of 2023
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Jan 2023

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met this week for its first 2023 meeting and announced its interest rate decision today. And in line with market expectations, the Reserve Bank once more hiked the repo rate but slowed the pace of increase to 25 basis points. This w...

7.2% 4Q GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2023

The economy grew much faster than we had expected in 4Q with the 7.2% year-on-year (yoy) growth rate reflecting a 2.4% quarter-on-quarter growth clip. Features of 4Q growth include: Still robust consumer spending which grew 7%, slowing down from the previous quarter’s 8% growth. Despite rising in...

The PL, PP, and Republicanos announced support for Rogério Marinho as Senate president, today is the first in-person meeting of the Governors Forum 2023, and the Petrobras Board will vote on Jean Paul Prates’s appointment as president of the company
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2023

With the support of the three parties, Senator Rogério Marinho (PL) has guaranteed at least 23 votes. However, he still does not have enough votes to defeat Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG). Currently, Pacheco may have 40 to 48 votes – he needs over 41 votes to be re-elected in the first round. The Gover...

New US ambassador in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2023

On January 25 Lynne Tracy arrived in Moscow. Her time as ambassador will not be easy as relations are their worst since the Cold War. She is the first woman to hold the post. Ms. Tracy was previously the deputy chief of mission in Moscow 2014-17. Ambassador Tracy will present her credentials soon...

DR Ministry of Finance announces repurchase of DOP bonds that mature in 2023
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Jan 2023

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance announced the decision to repurchase DOP bonds that mature in 2023. Payment will be made in cash. The amount of the main bond to be acquired is DOP40 b and has a coupon of 8.9% According to the announcement, disclosed through Global Bondholder Services Corporati...

Kazakhstan’s 2022 republican budget deficit smaller than planned
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Jan 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2022 the republican budget posted a smaller deficit than was stipulated by the amended target. This deficit accounted for KZT2.4 trln ($5.2 bn) instead of KZT3.0 trln ($6.5 bn). Own tax revenues of the republican budget exceeded the amended plan by 2.1% an...

Decreasing energy import prices should break the negative trend of the BOP this year
HUNGARY · Forecast · 25 Jan 2023

This quarterly update of our macro forecast partially follows the same basic trend as the one presented in our previous forecast report, released in October. However, it includes some important changes regarding key assumptions, real and nominal growth, inflation and the forint’s exchange rate, a...

PT President Gleisi Hofmann criticized Petrobras’s decision to increase fuel prices, legislators are mobilizing against the changes to CARF, and Lula’s government leader in Congress spoke against the installation of a CPI on the January 8 attacks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2023

Deputy Gleisi Hofmann highlighted the fact that Petrobras’s decision took place before Senator Jean Paul Prates took charge of the company and was due to pressure from shareholders. This is the first price increase in the Lula government. The government has noticed negotiations from legislators a...

Germany announces it will give tanks to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2023

On January 25 the move was declared by the German government. For weeks Ukraine and NATO beseeched Germany to allow other countries to donate Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Germany has allowed this but gone even further by giving 14 Leopard 2 tanks belonging to the German Army. Germany has 350 opera...