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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform—January budget execution statistics signal caution
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Feb 2026 · 1 response

The January budget execution statistics published last week sent mixed signals, suggesting that the outcome of tax reforms orchestrated by the Kazakh government remains muted. This doesn’t mean that the reform will be unsuccessful, but it could fall short of expectations. The key element of the t...

The Chile-US Cable Spat
CHILE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Chile-US relations were struck a firm blow last week when the United States revoked the visas of Chilean Transport and Telecommunications Minister Juan Carlos Muñoz and two other officials, accusing them of actions that could “compromise critical telecommunications infrastructure” and undermine r...

The Anti-Gang Bill should be put to a vote, the president of the CCJC should announce the rapporteur of the 6x1 PEC, and the two leading presidential candidates are facing headwinds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Feb 2026

The Anti-Gang Bill, which establishes the Legal Framework for Combating Organized Crime, is currently blocking the House agenda and could be voted on this Tuesday. If approved, it will be sent to President Lula for sanction. The president of the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJC), Congress...

Entering the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale war: the history teaches us that it teaches nothing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

Four years ago, in the early hours of February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin bought a one-way ticket to war. He believed it would be an easy journey, simply a matter of reclaiming what he saw as abandoned territory. The hardest part would be weathering a brief wave of 'deep concerns' fr...

Politics: Corruption perception index remains at a low level as scandals continue to emerge
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2026

In 2025, Mexico scored 27 points (out of 100) on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 141st out of 182 countries. This represents a minimal improvement of one point compared to 2024 but maintains the negative trend seen since 2014 and positions the country among the ...

Bank of Israel keeps rate at 4%, policy statement turns slightly more hawkish
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.0% on February 23. As we wrote yesterday, the decision came as no surprise to us. The Bank outlined the main considerations behind its decision not to lower the policy rate. First, the latest economic data did not justify a third ...

Flávio's "moderate Bolsonaro" strategy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2026

Congress resumes activity this week. In the Lower House, the government is mobilizing around the 6x1 work schedule proposal, the Mercosur–European Union agreement, and the Public Security constitutional amendment. In the Senate, expectations are building regarding the date of Jorge Messias’s conf...

Trump's tariff loss and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Feb 2026

Trump’s loss of the right to broad control over tariffs will have a limited but important impact on China. Exports may improve marginally. Politically, the Supreme Court ruling will further convince China that the U.S. is an unstable actor and a "paper tiger". This could encourage Xi Jinping’s ad...

Signs of slowing economic activity and rising inflationary pressures persist
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 23 Feb 2026

The economic policy environment is particularly challenging, given 2025’s 2.1% growth rate, and December and January y/y inflation at close to the upper limit of the 3%-5% target range. This situation leads to a monetary policy stance that seeks to avoid generating inflationary pressures, while a...

Economics: Sheinbaum's new investment plan lacks the foundations to achieve sustainable economic growth
MEXICO · Report · 23 Feb 2026

In early February, President Claudia Sheinbaum presented the Investment Plan for Development with Well-being, which would involve a total amount of $5.6 trillion MX pesos (close to $325.4 billion USD) to be executed between 2026 and 2030. Of that amount, in 2026 $722 billion MX pesos in additiona...

A strange story about friendship and the fog of war
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

For this story, friendship represents the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which Hungary brings in most of its 4.9m metric tons (2025, estimated) of crude oil imports, from Russia of course, but through the territory of Ukraine. Druzhba literally means 'friendship', although no one can be sure exact...

Monetary policy: Wake-up call to Malacañang and Congress
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Last week, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced its policy rate by another 25 basis points, extending its easing cycle amid slowing growth and inflation that remains within the 2%–4% target band. On paper, the move is well supported by macroeconomic conditions. Yet the decision also high...

The House will prioritize voting on the Mercosur-EU trade deal, negotiations continue over the vacancy at the TCU, and the Senate may vote on requests to hear from Justices Toffoli and Moraes regarding the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2026

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), said that this week he will prioritize the vote on the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The text will be voted on by the Brazilian Representation in the Mercosur Parliament. Negotiations also continue over the...

Policy rate likely to remain unchanged today amid resilient activity data, tight labor market and security tensions
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

Following the publication of the Bank of Israel’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity and the latest job-vacancy data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, we maintain our assessment that there is a high probability the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.0% today. The data point to con...

Relative calm at home, chaos abroad
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2026

The Peace Commission unveiled it is not-so-eagerly awaited report to the Grand Assembly, which covers matters related to the dissolution of PKK and fate of Ocalan, as well as suggestions for democratization. The Grand Assembly will start debating the proposals after Ramadan. While the PKK portion...

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