GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Bureau of National Statistics has begun releasing monthly economic data for August, showing that growth is gradually picking up. Retail trade rose by 4.5% y-o-y in 8M26, with August alone posting a 6.3% increase. In 7M26 and 1H26, growth stood at 4.1% and 3.8% respectively, marking a steady a...

A difficult runoff for Lula and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report pointing to an alleged connection between him and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is currently in custody. On the economic front, attention will focus on the Central B...

NABEP: Washington and Caracas’ oil bet

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The U.S.-Venezuela agreement centered on North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) seeks to turn the revival of Venezuela’s oil industry into a quick political success for both governments. President Trump’s political objectives are the main driver and cornerstone of the agreement: it could ...

The STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75%, and 11 polls will be published this week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2026

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will begin deliberations tomorrow morning, Tuesday (Sep. 15), on whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report pointing to an alleged connection between the justice and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is curren...

August CPI in focus as higher oil prices increase inflation risks

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2026

The Israeli economy was largely idle on Sunday for Rosh Hashanah (financial markets are always closed on Sundays), while the external environment deteriorated over the holiday period. Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb and attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz p...

Read my lips, says our politics man

TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2026

Early elections has become the number one topic of Turkish social media pundits, which is finding some support among market participants, too. Turkey will hold early elections, but no earlier than 2Q2028, our politics author maintains. The first essay thus explains why arranging early elections i...

Q2 GDP beats Q1, but H2 outlook darkens as air strikes intensify

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Sep 2026

Ukraine's GDP growth accelerated to 0.4% y/y in Q2 2026, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine — revised down from the preliminary estimate of +0.6% y/y. This follows a 0.6% y/y contraction in Q1 2026. The improvement was driven mainly by a smaller negative contribution from net ex...

GULF WEEKLY: Houthis capture Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi oil production falls, Qatar’s deficit spikes and Fitch applies a negative outlook

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Sep 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * US-Iran clashes intensified, including the US sinking or disabling 8 Iranian tankers and Iran striking several tankers and other vessels. * The Houthis made a dramatic advance, capturing the west coast of Yemen to the Bab ...

Shake-up at the Central Bank

INDONESIA · Report · 11 Sep 2026

The Central Bank of Indonesia experienced a major shake-up. Former Bank Indonesia Governor, Perry Warjiyo, who made a serious effort to be independent, at last had to submit his resignation letter to the President. He was replaced by his Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti. Aida S. Budiman, f...

Flávio Bolsonaro is numerically ahead of Lula in the latest polls on the runoff, the STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, and the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75% next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2026

Two polls released yesterday, one by PoderData and another by AtlasIntel, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula in hypothetical runoff matchups. In the PoderData poll, the result is 47% to 45%. In the AtlasIntel poll, it is 46.4% to 46.2%. The main focus next week will be the Sup...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Too hot to handle? Mapping overheating risks in Eurasia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Sep 2026

Evaluating the medium-term government programs in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has brought into sharper focus the very high growth rates in these economies, with neighboring Kyrgyzstan comfortably beating even those ambitious 7-8% plus growth projections. A question that I have posed for myself in r...

Current account surplus switches to a deficit in Q2-2026

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Sep 2026

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) shows that South Africa’s current account of the balance of payments deteriorated markedly during the second quarter of 2026, switching from a surplus of R181.6 billion in the first quarter to a deficit of R205.5 billion. As a percentage of G...

Miserable new world

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Sep 2026

The 2014-2016 recession is different from previous downturns due to the delay in the recovery and by the persistent departure from the pre-crisis path. Several counterfactuals, obtained using HP and Kalman filters, indicate that 2026 GDP would be, depending on the case, 15% to 27% below the level...

MPC: gearing up for an October cut?

TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2026

As expected, the CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% today. The statement was not very different either, in which the Bank reiterated the ongoing demand weakness and acknowledged that “elevated energy prices amid geopolitical developments pose an upward risk to the inflation outlook.”

Justice Fachin called a session for next week to decide on the latest Banco Master development, the government is trying to lower gas prices, and Lula signs into law the measure eliminating the so-called “blouse import tax”

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2026

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Chief Justice Luiz Edson Fachin has called an extraordinary session for next Tuesday, September 15, for the full Court to decide on a Federal Police report that identifies Justice Alexandre de Moraes as the interlocutor of former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco M...