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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 12 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 14
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Nov 4
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Philippines databank Nov 7
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Nov 14
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South Africa databank Nov 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Nov 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Electric power service restored after nationwide blackout in the Dominican Republic
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025
This afternoon, the electric service was suspended throughout the national territory. The situation was caused by a failure in the transmission system, resulting in a cascading shutdown of several power generation plants. The blackout temporarily interrupted the operation of the Santo Domingo Met...
Deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in October; Finance Ministry’s 2026 target of 3.2% seen as overly ambitious
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025
Fiscal deficit widens to 4.9% of GDP in October The Ministry of Finance reported yesterday a fiscal deficit of NIS 15.3 billion ($4.64 billion) in October, with the trailing 12-month deficit slightly increasing to 4.9% of GDP from 4.7% in September. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in Sep...
A lot to digest for today: October CPI, fiscal loosening, and a "protective shield" from the US
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025
The October CPI-inflation data, reported this morning, is almost normal, although not exactly a reason for enthusiasm, due to rising yoy core inflation. Monthly headline inflation was zero for the third consecutive period, leaving the yoy rate at 4.3%, also entirely unchanged since July. Core inf...
Accommodating Growth Weakness: Balancing Support and Prudence
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025
The Philippine economy slowed markedly in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by only 4.0%, down from 5.5% in the previous quarter and 5.2% a year ago—well below the government’s full-year target of 5.5–6.5%. This clear growth deceleration, coupled with steady headline inflation at 1.7% in both ...
Rhetoric and reality in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025
President Lula is expected to sign into law an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira meets in Canada with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the tariff sanctions imposed on Brazil. The release of new Quaest poll...
Economics: A complex public finance picture compounded with a bigger bailout of Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2025 · 1 response
Public finances maintained in September the same basic trend seen in previous months. In the revenue column a deterioration in oil revenues contrasted with higher tax and non-tax revenues. In expenditures, there was a reduction in programmable spending that was particularly severe in the case of ...
The government says exchange rate policy will remain unchanged—the question is for how long
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Nov 2025
The president and the economy minister have said that no significant changes in FX policy are in the cards. In this report, I evaluate whether, given the net demand for dollars from the SPN, the rest of the economy will have the capacity to generate the excess supply necessary to satisfy that dem...
Politics: Killing of Michoacán mayor sparks outrage over weakness in Sheinbaum’s response to organized crime
MEXICO · Report · 10 Nov 2025
The high-profile murder on November 1 of Carlos Manzo Rodriguez, mayor of Uruapan, Michoacán, has sparked enormous pent-up indignation nationwide and put the spotlight on President Claudia Sheinbaum’s public security policies. Manzo, who had previously been a Morena congressional deputy but bolte...
Lula is expected to sign into law the income tax exemption bill, he should also appoint Justice Barroso’s successor, and the STF should hear the criminal complaint against Eduardo Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025
President Lula (PT) is expected to sign into law this week the bill on the Individual Income Tax (IR) exemption. The bill was approved last week by the Federal Senate and is one of the president’s main bets to boost his popularity in 2026. President Lula’s (PT) appointment for the existing vacanc...
Growth remains robust
INDONESIA · Report · 10 Nov 2025
The Indonesian economy as reported by the Central Board of Statistics grew by 5.04% in Q3 2025. The rate of growth remained robust due to strong private consumption and exports. Exports grew by 9.91%, supporting the regions with strong export activity. For industrial products, the main export act...
The mystery of industrial stagnation explained
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025
Despite economic growth in recent years somewhat above the historical average, Brazil’s industrial sector continues to show low dynamism. Our interpretation is that one of the main obstacles to the sector’s growth is, paradoxically, the very expansionary economic policy, which stimulates demand i...
Early evidence from the first wave of Trump tariffs on Indian exports
INDIA · Report · 10 Nov 2025
In this report, we analyze the initial impact of the 2025 US tariffs on Indian exports. The available trade data, running through July/August 2025, captures only the "First Wave" tariff from April. The impact of the 50% "Second Wave" tariff (effective August 27) and the $100k H1B fee (effective ...
Results of the Trump-Orbán meeting appear significant, although somewhat unclear
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2025
PM Orbán travelled to Washington DC in the past few days, and he met President Trump on November 7. Mr. Orbán travelled with a large mission, including the foreign, defense and economy ministers, a number of top businessmen and the number of media people needed to make big publicity around the vi...
Stranger things
TURKEY · Report · 09 Nov 2025 · 2 responses
President Erdogan is marshalling his resources in the judiciary to open a new front in his showdown with CHP. The immunities of 12 CHP heavyweights, including chairman Ozer may be lifted. Meanwhile, shortly after the European Court of Human Rights ordered Turkey to release Selahaddin Demirtas, Ba...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ pauses hikes for Q1, Saudi PMI surges, Microsoft boosts UAE AI investments, Qatar issued $4bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Nov 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced a small Dec hike followed by a 3-month pause; Brent dipped back to $63. * Aramco beat profit expectations and hiked its gas production target for 2030 by about 13%. * The Saudi PMI surged to 60.2, the seco...