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Iranian missiles, bank trials
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026

I’ve bad news and good news for you. The bad news is Iran lobbing a second missile in the direction of the Incirlik Airbase. The good news is the Trump administration closing the forever-lasting Halkbank money laundering prosecution. Since I still think Iran War has weeks to go, I’m concerned abo...

Iran War Day 10: Oil whipsaws on shifting US signals
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

Highlights The US sent conflicting signals on the war's timeline. Brent crude briefly hit $119 before retreating sharply after Trump's comments and G7 reserve-release talk, dropping below $90. Iran's new Supreme Leader adviser Kamal Kharazi told CNN there is "no room for diplomacy" and that Tehra...

February budget data show strong revenue growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

Against the backdrop of the war entering its 10th day, the Ministry of Finance yesterday published the budget results for February. As in previous months, the data surprised on the upside, with government revenues exceeding expectations. In real terms and at constant tax rates, tax revenues in Ja...

The Banco Master crisis is likely to escalate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

The Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) is expected to begin moving through the Senate. Banker Daniel Vorcaro may testify before the Senate Economic Affairs Committee. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Edson Fachin, will meet with court presidents t...

Economics: Indicators published in February point to a weak economic recovery for 2026, with inflation above Banxico's target and deteriorating public finances
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2026

Economic indicators published in February suggest that Mexico will experience a moderate recovery in 2026 following the stagnation observed in 2025, although this rebound is shaping up to be weak and constrained by multiple obstacles. Private consumption shows signs of gradual recovery, driven la...

We’re gonna need a bigger boat
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

The decline in inflation has been concentrated on exchange-rate-sensitive items, but further progress depends on a slowdown in economic activity, which is already underway, and on the labor market, which, in contrast, remains resilient. Consumption appears to respond more to restrictions in the c...

Politics: Electoral Reform proposed by Sheinbaum represents a democratic setback
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2026 · 1 response

On March 4, 2026, President Claudia Sheinbaum submitted her constitutional electoral reform initiative to the Chamber of Deputies, representing the final outstanding component of "Plan C" announced by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in February 2024. Following two previous failed attempts—a rejected ...

Stepping into the same river again: retail fuel prices to be administratively capped from midnight
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

It has just been announced that the government cabinet has decided to set an administrative cap on retail fuel prices, effective midnight today. These will be HUF595 per litre for gasoline and HUF615 per litre for diesel, in both cases for the leading products on the market. These prices will hav...

Lula has lost political capital compared to the 2022 elections, Vorcaro is expected to testify before the Senate CAE tomorrow, and the TSE will hear a case against the Governor of Rio for irregularities in his 2022 campaign
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

Comparing Datafolha polling from 2022 and 2026 shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) has lost political capital during this period in both first-round and runoff simulations. Bolsonarismo, in turn, has improved its performance. Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, ...

Azerbaijan’s Iran crisis mood: anxiety, not triumph
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

I spent much of the weekend wading through Azerbaijani commentary on the latest round of conflict with Iran (Iran's alleged drone strike against Nakhchivan, the militarized response from Baku, Iran's military public appeal to Azerbaijan to expel Israelis from its territory, as the latter presumab...

Notes on the March 8th Colombian Congressional and Primaries elections
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

1. At 10:15 pm Colombia time, according to Bulletin 37 of the National Electoral Registry, and with 98.4% of polling stations reported, the leftist Pacto Histórico is the winner of the congressional elections, 4,38 million votes for the Senate and 1.9 million votes for the House of Representative...

Iran War Day 8-9: Khamenei’s son succeeds, oil spikes to $110
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Mar 2026

Highlights: Mojtaba Khamenei has succeeded his father, signaling hardline continuity and no appetite for a negotiated exit from the war. President Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf neighbors and pledged to halt cross-border strikes, but they continued and struck more civilian targets, exposing intern...

Turkey flees, war finds her
TURKEY · Report · 08 Mar 2026

Like most experts, we had anticipated that Iran, the US and Israel will battle one another way before the Second Iran War began, but failed to see how fast it progressed, its broadening scope to neutral third parties and the ongoing escalation, rather than a consensus on finding common ground for...

Political risk of domestic origin is increasing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2026

What is just happening is nothing else than what we have been predicting for quite a while. You may call it uncertainty around the election, instability or simply political risk, and it exists to a great extent separately from the many problems and threats stemming from today's troublesome extern...

GlobalSource Partners' Fan Gang is available for conference calls and speaking engagements
CHINA · Report · 06 Mar 2026

GlobalSource Partners' Fan Gang is available for conference calls and speaking engagements. Although he no longer publishes regular reports, please feel free to browse his previous publications for insight into his knowledge and expertise.

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