GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The World Bank's reclassification of the Philippines as an upper-middle-income country marks an important achievement in the country's economic journey and recognizes its resilience and sustained macroeconomic progress. Yet the greater challenge lies not in attaining a higher income classificatio...

Omnibus closer to approval, but further from working its magic

CHILE · Report · 06 Jul 2026

Recent data points to further weakness in domestic activity. Mining and manufacturing explained most of the contraction, but the pace of expansion remained weak, even when these sectors are excluded. Consumption-related indicators were somewhat more resilient. The picture is increasingly gloomy, ...

Poland outlook: inflation on target, demand still fragile, and "hospitalgate" adds political risk

POLAND · Report · 06 Jul 2026

We assess Poland’s short-term macroeconomic outlook and the emerging political risks surrounding the governing coalition. Inflation fell back to the NBP target in June 2026, mainly due to declining food prices, while core inflation remained broadly stable, indicating that domestic demand pressure...

Politics: Mexico's 2027 midterm elections: early maneuvering, internal tensions, and a fragmented opposition

MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2026

With eleven months to go before Mexico's midterm elections — in which 500 congressional seats, 17 governorships, and nearly two thousand municipal presidencies are at stake — Morena has already launched its candidate selection process, months ahead of what the law permits. Exploiting a strategy r...

South Africa's Financial Stability Review: External risks dominate while domestic resilience holds

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Jul 2026

The latest (June 2026) Financial Stability Review by the South African Reserve Bank signals an important shift in South Africa's macro-financial environment. While it continues the SARB's comprehensive assessment of both domestic and international risks to financial stability, the balance of risk...

Chaotic politics, stagnant economy

TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Jul 2026

The macro context has become palpably more stagflationary over the past few months, with economic activity stagnating but inflation remaining elevated -- and we expect things to stay this way for the foreseeable future. But this should be no threat to the proverbial “carry trade” -- the only thin...

Delcy Rodríguez’s first major test

VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Jul 2026

The June 24 earthquakes are Delcy Rodríguez’s interim government’s first major operational test since assuming power in January of this year. The response has been opaque, slow, and heavily dependent on U.S. military and humanitarian cooperation, more visible than the Venezuelan Armed Forces them...

June inflation: a summer respite of sorts

TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2026

Consumer prices rose by 1.0%, m/m, in June, in line with the median market expectation. As a result, annual consumer price inflation eased slightly to 32.1%, from 32.6% in May. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was 1.8% in June, with the 12-month PPI rate thus declining also slightly to 28.1% from 2...

Leaving for a summer holiday risks missing a number of important events in today's Hungary

HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2026

In hindsight, PM Magyar appears to have been right when he said that no one in Hungary's public service should plan a long holiday this summer. Returning from our own ten-day leave, we found an impressive list of important changes, which were the following: 1. The MNB base rate was reduced by 25 ...

Ahead of Monday's Bank of Israel interest rate decision

ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Jul 2026

Ahead of Monday's interest rate decision The Bank of Israel's Monetary Committee will announce its interest rate decision on Monday. Overall, the balance of factors facing the Bank of Israel supports further monetary easing: Inflation surprised on the downside in May. The CPI declined by 0.3%, wh...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil hits $70 despite Iranian strikes, Saudi current account surplus, tourism rebounds in Oman and Bahrain

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jul 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The first US-Iran clashes since the MoU was signed took place, but ended with talks in Doha. * A deal on staged Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, a key Iranian condition, was brokered by the US. * Hormuz transits picked up...

Economic impact of the earthquakes

VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jul 2026 · 2 responses

The double earthquake of June 24, 2026, intensifies Venezuela’s economic crisis. The disaster struck a country with no fiscal space, no access to international financing, an electricity system operating at its limit, a fragile exchange rate regime, and a fractured payment system. It multiplies ex...

One of Flávio Bolsonaro’s closest allies caused political damage to his campaign, former Governor Caiado announced Kassab as his running mate, and leaders discussed the 6x1 work schedule proposal in the Senate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2026

Journalist Paulo Figueiredo’s statement during a recent livestream that “women return to evil,” made on his Paulo Figueiredo Show podcast last week, is creating a new source of political damage for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Figueiredo is one of former Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro’s closest allie...

Economic performance is mixed across sectors, with trends still hard to pin down

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2026

Rosstat’s latest 1Q26 GDP data by end-use confirmed a 0.2% y-o-y drop, and in seasonally adjusted terms, output shrank by 0.7% Q-o-Q. National accounts are currently based on 2021 prices, and interestingly, seasonally adjusted figures show GDP as flat y-o-y, even slightly higher. Household consum...

GCC tour reflections and outlook slide deck

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jul 2026

This report includes my latest slide deck on the war impact and outlook, along with impressions from my two-week tour of the GCC on the local mood, including attitudes towards the US, Iran and other Gulf states.