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Popularity vs. elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2026

The pace of work in Brasília will be reduced due to the holiday (Good Friday). It will still be a busy week, with governors stepping down, cabinet reshuffles, and party affiliations. The party-switching window ends on April 3. The deadline for mandatory resignations is April 4. The government may...

Bad moon rising
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2026

The conflict in the Middle East has significantly altered the balance of risks for inflation; at the same time, the revision of BCB’s forecasts appears insufficient given the current scenario. Upside risks have intensified asymmetrically relative to downside risks. In addition, oil prices are alr...

Managed calm
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2026

It is becoming clear that the Trump administration’s primary objective for Venezuela is geopolitical stability. Stabilization is advancing, although not necessarily as a prelude to democratization. What is emerging is a mutually convenient arrangement between Washington and Rodríguez that could b...

There will be reduced activity in Brasília this week due to the holiday, the party-switching window closes on Friday, and the mandatory resignation period ends on Saturday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2026

The week will see reduced activity in Brasília due to the holiday (Good Friday), with no significant deliberations expected in the plenary sessions of the Lower House or the Senate. Two key dates this week stand out in the electoral calendar. The party-switching window closes on Friday, April 3. ...

Declaration of Energy Emergency: Boon or bane?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 30 Mar 2026

In response to the March 2026 Middle East conflict and subsequent 70% surge in global oil prices, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 110, declaring a state of national energy emergency. The Order activates the UPLIFT framework, a "whole-of-government" strategy designed to s...

Iran War Days 28–30: Houthis enter the war and Iran strikes aluminum smelters
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 29 Mar 2026

Highlights There was no confirmation of mooted US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, but growing talk of a ground offensive, as US marines arrived in the region. Yemen’s Houthis entered the war, firing ballistic missiles. Iran destroyed US plans at a Saudi airbase and attacked aluminum smelters in the...

Something has to give
TURKEY · Forecast · 29 Mar 2026

With no quick resolution in sight to the ongoing regional conflict, the econ author shares some illustrative forecasts as to what the Turkish macro outlook could look like, should, contrary to consensus, this shock prove permanent, rather than temporary. In a nutshell, the stagflation-like mac...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran rejects US plan but talks mooted, Trojena ski resort cancelled, UAE developers face market stress
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Mar 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump postponed attacks on power plants until April 6, claiming talks were progressing well. * However, Iran rejected the US plan and is making its own maximalist demands, including reparations. * Iran is proposing tolls ...

Growth beat expectations in 2025, but labor market slack, debt management complexity, and oil price risk cloud the outlook
PANAMA · Report · 27 Mar 2026

Panama's economy grew by 4.4% in 2025, above expectations, supported by a solid fourth quarter and particularly strong performance in transportation, commerce, and construction. Even so, the annual result remained heavily influenced by the hydrological recovery of the Canal. Excluding transportat...

Interest rates, U.S.-Iran negotiations, and markets in focus: macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, March 27, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Mar 2026

Headlines: - Israeli markets weakened sharply this week, driven by growing concerns over a potential agreement with Iran. The sell-off intensified today (Friday), with the TA-90 falling by 2.4% and the TA-125 by 3.5%, bringing weekly declines to 5.9% and 5.2%, respectively, and erasing all ga...

The STF overturned Justice Mendonça’s decision to extend the INSS CPMI, the Confaz should meet today to discuss fuel pricing, and the party-switching window ends on April 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2026

By eight votes to two, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) overturned the single-justice ruling by Justice André Mendonça that had extended the work of the joint congressional inquiry committee (CPMI) on the INSS. Justice Flávio Dino opened the dissenting opinion, arguing that the matter falls within...

Topic of the week - 1Q2026 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Mar 2026

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

Growth engine losing power
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Mar 2026

Guatemala enters 2026–2027 with strong macroeconomic fundamentals, but moderating growth momentum. In 2025, GDP expanded by 4.1%, supported by resilient domestic demand, strong remittances ($25.5 billion), improved investment (particularly in construction) and strong services performance. But con...

An expected pause in interest rate cuts by the SA Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Mar 2026

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it is leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged following another halt in January 2026. As we have highlighted in recent reports, the likelihood of the Reserve Bank cutting rates has declined considerably, ...

The STF established criteria for the payment of perks to judges, the Court will also review Justice Mendonça’s decision to extend the INSS CPMI, and the Confaz should meet today to discuss a reduction in the ICMS on diesel
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2026

Yesterday, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) established criteria for the payment of indemnity allowances—commonly referred to as “perks”—to judges and members of the Public Prosecutor’s Office. Certain indemnity payments were authorized up to a limit of 35% of the constitutional salary cap, which ...

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