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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Tensions rise among Bolsonaro's allies and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025

President Lula is holding a ministerial meeting to discuss reactions to the tariff hike imposed by the United States and the regulation of social media, with bills potentially being sent to Congress in the coming days. The Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the INSS will meet to v...

Post-election political trauma and the first weeks with Nawrocki
POLAND · Report · 25 Aug 2025

Poland is at a critical political juncture following Karol Nawrocki's narrow presidential victory, which has destabilized the governing coalition and potentially set the stage for a return to right-wing rule. The governing coalition (KO-PL2050-PSL-Lewica) is experiencing unprecedented internal tu...

This side of the horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025

The appreciation of the exchange rate in 2025 has had impacts on inflation, chiefly in the category of tradable goods. It is true that much of the disinflation in this group is explained by food prices, whose behavior depends on variables beyond the exchange rate, but there are also signs of a sl...

Lula will meet with his cabinet to discuss the 50% tariff hike by the U.S., the government faced a setback in the CPMI on INSS last week, and the Lower House analyzes the Immunities Constitutional Amendment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025

President Lula (PT) has called a meeting with his cabinet for Tuesday (August 26) to align the government’s position on the 50% tariff hike imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports and to discuss the proposed regulation of social media platforms and technology companies. Last week, the g...

Confirming the obvious: price caps will be extended beyond end-August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2025

We had this coming from the first instance. PM Orbán has just announced that the government's administrative caps on the gross retail margins of certain food items and household goods will be upheld after August 31, when, in the legal sense at least, those measures were set to expire. He did not ...

An update on the Druzhba oil pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Aug 2025

During the night of August 22, the Unecha pumping station in the Bryansk region of Russia was hit by Ukrainian UAV drones, causing the whole station to go up in flames, as everyone can check by seeing the video published by the Ukrainian military. This was the fourth attack against the Druzhba oi...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi Arabia may pass on the 2029 Asian Winter games, Oman’s deficit continues in Q2, Bahrain awards shale exploration concession
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Aug 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE and Saudi Arabia ranked top, after the US, in a global index of AI compute resources. * Chinese computer firm Lenovo is the latest to announce plans for a Regional HQ in Riyadh. * Saudi Arabia may transfer hosting...

The Senate may vote on the IBS management committee next month, today is the deadline for Bolsonaro to respond to the information found on his cellphone, and the CPMI on the INSS should meet on Tuesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2025

The regulation of the IBS (Goods and Services Tax) management committee (PLP 108/24) may be voted on by mid-September. Today is the deadline set by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes for former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to respond regarding the political asylum request do...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Why is Georgia growing so much faster than Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Aug 2025

When the IMF upped its 2025 GDP forecast for Georgia (to 7.2%) in June upon conducting its regular Article IV Mission in Tbilisi, many were caught by surprise. After all, wasn't Georgia about to experience the aftershocks of the contested parliamentary and presidential elections in 2024 as religi...

Inflation likely to stay elevated in August prompting NBK to hold the base rate
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Aug 2025

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the weekly aggregate price index on socially essential goods (mainly basic foodstuffs) remained flat in the seven days ending on August 18. The MTD index remained at 0.1% on that day. It is not unusual to see some deflationary weeks during the harve...

Marcel resigns
CHILE · In Brief · 21 Aug 2025

Chile's Finance Minister, Mario Marcel, widely viewed as a guarantor of economic responsibility, resigned this morning. He claims to have made the move  for personal reasons. The widely held view is that he may take up a position at the IMF. Others say he may join the Jara campaign, although this...

The Federal Police indicted Bolsonaro and his son for coercion, leaked audio recordings could damage the Bolsonaro family’s image, and Justice Moraes said Brazilian courts can punish banks that follow US orders
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2025

The Federal Police (PF) has indicted former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and his son, Federal Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), for coercion in the criminal case concerning the attempted coup d’état following the 2022 elections. Newly released audio recordings could also damage the Bolsonar...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Aug 2025

Aug 7 Prime Minister: Kazakhstan plans to raise $24.2 bln in the next 5 years for the repair of utility networks. Aug 8 Government: Construction of the first nuclear power plant has started in Kazakhstan. Aug 11 NBK: Kazakhstan's gross international reserves increased by 0.8% in July to $113.041 ...

Dominican government submits supplementary budget to boost capital spending and economic growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Aug 2025 · 1 response

The Dominican Government has submitted a supplementary budget bill to Congress that increases capital expenditure by 0.4% of GDP, thereby raising the overall deficit to 3.47% of GDP, up from the 2.99% originally approved in the 2025 budget. According to the Ministry of Finance and Economy, the me...

Bank of Israel holds rates; future easing less likely as Gaza operation gets underway
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Aug 2025

As we expected, the Bank of Israel kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.5% yesterday, for the 13th consecutive meeting. The tone was cautious and hawkish, with emphasis on inflation risks, geopolitical uncertainty, and a tight labor market. The bank also mentioned signs of a rapid recovery afte...

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