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Bulgaria expels 70 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 01 Jul 2022
On June 30 Sofia expelled them for activity incompatible with diplomatic status. The Russian Ambassador has not been expelled despite her openly insulting the Bulgarian Government as ''Western lackeys.'' Moscow has reacted angrily. It has threatened to close its embassy in Bulgaria. Bad relations...

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Russian sovereign debt: The market becomes local
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 01 Jul 2022
International holders didn’t receive interest payments on two issues of Sovereign Eurobonds by the expiration of the grace period despite all the efforts of the Finance Ministry, and the event of default was finally observed. However, Russian authorities are trying to deliver payments to investor...

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Webinar Replay: Peru – Castillo walks a tightrope as the economy struggles
PERU - Report 01 Jul 2022
Will Castillo stay in government? How deep is the economic deceleration? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing Peru's ongoing political crisis and its impact on the country's economic outlook.

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A new increase in the monetary policy rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 01 Jul 2022
Yesterday, the Central Bank decided an increase of 75 basic points in the monetary policy rate. The rate of the permanent facility for liquidity expansion (1-day Repos) increases from 7.00% to 7.75% per year and the interest-bearing deposit rate (Overnight) from 6.00% to 6.75% per year. This is t...

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The Senate approved the PEC on Fuels, next week is the penultimate week of legislative activity, and former President Lula and Geraldo Alckmin will meet with Fiesp businessmen next week
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 01 Jul 2022
To guarantee approval, the rapporteur of the PEC on Fuels, Senator Fernando Bezerra, had to make some compromises. Bezerra included a R$ 200 gasoline voucher per month for taxi drivers, at a cost of R$ 2 billion, and the allocation of R$ 500 million to the Alimenta Brasil program. Next week will ...

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Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 01 Jul 2022
The ruble touched the R/$50 mark recently and encouraged the Ministry of Finance’s verbal interventions. The ministry now plans to discuss ways of “weakening” the exchange rate. One of the ways considered by the authorities could result in purchasing currencies of “friendly” countries on the open...

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UAE: Dubai’s economy neared pre-Covid levels in Q1 but a new Covid wave is now underway
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 30 Jun 2022
Dubai's Q1 GDP shows that the non-oil sector as a whole had nearly returned to 2019 levels, albeit this recovery was weaker than in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain because of Dubai's greater exposure to pandemic-hurt sectors such as transport and retail trade. The key tourism sector got off to a weak st...

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Ocampo: a good pick, but faces colossal tasks
COLOMBIA - In Brief 30 Jun 2022
President elect Gustavo Petro announced José Antonio Ocampo as his pick for Finance Minister. Ocampo, a Ph.D. from Yale and one of the best-known Colombian economists abroad, has published extensively on macroeconomic theory and policy, international financial issues, economic and social developm...

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Vote might be held for Kherson to unite with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 30 Jun 2022
On June 29 a Moscow appointed official in the occupied Ukrainian city said a vote will be held on the region joining Russia. Kyiv suspects referenda might be held on September 11: a date when some Russian region are holding regional elections. Russia has said several times that it shall not seize...

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Strengthening the supply chain for electric vehicles
INDONESIA - Report 30 Jun 2022
Lucky Goldstar, a Korean company, through its subsidiary LG Energy Solution, recently broke ground to build new battery materials plants in Batang Industrial Park, Central Java, Indonesia. Of the six stages in making EV batteries, the plant in Batang will comprise three of those stages. It will h...

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Russia withdraws from Snake Island
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 30 Jun 2022
On June 30 Russia said it had withdrawn its forces from the island in the Black Sea. Ukraine scorned Russia's explanation that this was a goodwill gesture. Kyiv said the heavy casualties it had inflicted on the Russians on the island prompted the move. Snake Island was crucial for controlling par...

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The Senate meets today to vote on the PEC on Fuels, the government is worried about the electoral effects of the allegations regarding the former president of Caixa, and Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) was approved
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Jun 2022
According to Senator Fernando Bezerra's report on the PEC of Fuels, “The state of emergency resulting from the extraordinary and unpredictable rise in the prices of oil, fuel and its derivatives and the social impacts resulting from them is recognized in the year 2022.” The probability is for the...

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Economic growth gradually turns more negative in May amid uneven dynamics by sectors and different challenges they face
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 30 Jun 2022
Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors was up by 1.7% y-o-y in 5M22 but down by 3.2% y-o-y in May alone. Industry and transport posted a quite moderate y-o-y decline in May (around 1.7%-1.8% each) while retail sales collapsed by 10.1% - mainly due to the falling activity in th...

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Norway blocking Russian supplies to island
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 29 Jun 2022
On June 28 Norway announced that it shall not allow food and medical supplies to be transported to Russia miners on the Svalbard Peninsula. In May 2022 Norway blocked two containers carrying 20 tons of supplies. The supplies had been due to pass the only border checkpoint between Norway and Russi...

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Panama on the GAFI gray list and awaiting the October exam. First-quarter GDP growth and IMAE numbers confirm 6.4% projections for the year. Inflation spikes in May. Cortizo to announce the status of his health condition next month.
PANAMA - Report 29 Jun 2022
The government faces a credibility crisis if, during the GAFI committee meetings in October, Panama remains on the "gray list" or suffers a downgrade by GAFI. Minister Alexander's statements and official reports are optimistic about the outcome of the next review, but the Bank Superintendent is m...