GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The inflation scenario has been marked by both the oil shock, which pushed up inflation expectations even at longer horizons, and resilient economic activity featuring a still tight labor market. Meanwhile, by extending the horizon for inflation convergence to the target, the Central Bank has con...

Congressman Prates should present his report on the 6x1 work schedule PECs, the House may vote on the fuel tax break offset bill, and AtlasIntel will release a presidential voting intention poll tomorrow

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2026

On Wednesday (May 20), Congressman Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA) is expected to present his report on the proposed constitutional amendments (PECs) addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule. A transition rule is currently under negotiation. The Lower House may vote this week on Complementary Bil...

The Ides of May

ARGENTINA · Report · 18 May 2026

In Roman tradition, the Ides of March evoke foreboding and anxiety, while the Ides of other months, such as May, suggest cautious optimism. At this time in May, Argentina’s economy resembles the latter more than the former. April was a better month than March, and May’s economic results are expec...

GDP growth moderated in 1Q26 but followed by stronger economic performance in April

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 May 2026

The Bureau of Economic Statistics reported that GDP grew by 3.0% y-o-y in 1Q26 with the mining sector down by 11.4% y-o-y and manufacturing delivering 8.5% y-o-y growth. Industry in total contracted by 0.1% y-o-y. Trade (wholesale and retail combined) grew by 4.8% y-o-y. Construction was up by 14...

Israel’s Q1 2026 GDP declined by 3.3% annualized, reflecting a temporary war shock; output gap remains significant

ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 May 2026

Israel’s preliminary GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2026, published on Sunday, showed a contraction of 3.3% at an annualized rate, equivalent to roughly NIS 3.7 billion in lost output. The decline mainly reflected the sharp slowdown in economic activity during March, particularly its first...

April CPI in line with expectations; strong shekel supports low inflation environment and rate-cut expectations

ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 May 2026

Israel’s CPI rose by 1.2% in April, in line with our expectations. Annual inflation remained around 1.9%, similar to the previous month. Overall, the CPI did not surprise, and the entire increase was driven by higher fuel prices (12.7%) and seasonal components, including prices of airfare (27.9%)...

Waiting for (a bunch of) Godot(s)

TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2026

At home, President Erdogan broadened his war against CHP with the specter of a closure suit against the latter, new probes against city mayors and ongoing recruitments. As the politics author stated in last Sunday’s Weekly, Erdogan is waiting to see how the Iran War (or the Gulf Conflict) ends...

The new government has effectively started fiscal adjustment

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 May 2026

This year's fiscal deficit (by Eurostat definition) is officially expected to reach 6.8% of GDP, against the original 3.7% target, which was amended later to 4.5% and then even later to 5%. This is not an estimate from the new Finance Ministry; it is the estimate with which the outgoing economy m...

Venezuela’s restructuring announcement: the right words, eloquent silences

VENEZUELA · Report · 15 May 2026

On May 13, the Venezuelan government formally launched its external debt restructuring process through a statement signed by Calixto Ortega, Vice President for the Economy. The same day, a Businesswire release announced that Centerview Partners will serve as financial advisor. The appointment of ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises on new Iranian attacks, Saudi manufacturing resilient in March, UAE to expand bypass pipeline

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 May 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil is back at $110 amidst more attacks on shipping, despite some Hormuz transits. * There were new Iranian strikes on the UAE and Kuwait, as well as ships near Qatar and Oman. * Trump called Iran’s latest proposal ...

Essential CIS Politics: May 2-15

CIS POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2026

Main headlines: - There were no Russia-Ukraine talks, although Putin, Zelensky and Western countries have all made positive statements about peace. - Trump takes credit for a shaky Victory Day ceasefire; Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners, corpses and strikes. - Ukrainian ...

The Philippine Senate: Impeaching the culture of impunity

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 May 2026

Last May 11, the Philippines’ House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte on allegations involving misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, SALN discrepancies, corruption, and threats against top government officials. The Articles of Impeachment w...

Webinar replay: Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook - What changed?

TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2026

What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How effectively is President Erdoğan managing the assoc...

The government shows signs of increased approval ratings, the leaked audio recordings of Flávio and Vorcaro have caused concern among his allies, and today is the deadline for amendments to 6x1 work schedule PECs

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2026

The week ends on a positive note for the government. For the opposition, the balance is negative. President Lula began the week by announcing an R$11 billion public package for public security, which is the issue voters are most concerned about according to opinion polls. A new Genial/Quaest poll...

For Whom the Bell Tolls?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2026

Copom rightly expresses discomfort with the rise in long-term inflation expectations in response to the oil shock, whose effects should dissipate before affecting inflation at more distant horizons. We argue in this report that this pattern results from the Central Bank’s stance since 2021, marke...