CHINA ADVISORY - Report 20 Oct 2020

The trends continue of mild growth in the state sector and growing weakness in the consumer sector. Generally weakening growth in key consumer metrics, including auto sales, congestion, and mixed film attendance, suggest that the demand side is still a problem for China. Much of the recovery is ...

ECUADOR - Forecast 20 Oct 2020

This year we have assumed the inevitable. GDP will fall between 10% -11% by the end of the year, as it has already fallen 9.97% q/q and 12.4% y/y in Q2 2020. Household consumption fell 11.9% y/y and government consumption was also down, by 10.5% y/y, in Q2. Exports, which until Q1 contributed pos...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 19 Oct 2020

On October 19 the US formally charged 6 GRU officers with cyberattacks on the Ukrainian power grid, the Winter Olympics and the French elections. The officers are said to have carried out a NotPetya malware attack that impacted computers all over the world resulting in losses of over USD 1 billio...

HUNGARY - Forecast 19 Oct 2020

Forecasts on COVID-19 have proven to be largely wrong everywhere around the globe so far, and ours have been no exception. Unfortunately, analysts must have a view on the ongoing pandemic all the time, as everything else will greatly depend on the prospects for the epidemic. So, we are also start...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 19 Oct 2020

* Oman is coming to market to raise up to $4bn in 3/7/12 year tranches. * The revised budget expects a full-year deficit of -$10.9bn (-16.3% of GDP). * The fiscal deficit disclosed for Jan-Aug of -$4.3bn seems to be an undercount. * Government debt is at least $48bn (72% of GDP), and GRE d...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Oct 2020

The highlight of the week will be the confirmation hearings in the Senate for government appointees to regulatory agencies, the TCU and CVM. Senators will also analyze the president’s first appointment to the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Kassio Marques, while the STF will decide on the removal of...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 19 Oct 2020

The scare provoked by the information that the debt/GDP ratio will reach 100% at the end of 2020 and continue to grow thereafter is one thing. The foreboding generated by its consequences, which are severe, is another thing, much different. The higher risk is being reflected in asset prices: both...

PERU - Forecast 19 Oct 2020

We tweaked our forecasts last week, on the back of the most recent reports. We now expect a shallower recession in 2020, with real GDP contracting by 13.7% y/y, less than our July forecast of -17% y/y. We also forecast a stronger rebound in 2021, reaching 11.1% y/y (from 6.5% y/y previously). The...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 19 Oct 2020

The third and last phase of South Africa’s response to Covid-19, the economic reconstruction and recovery plan, was delivered by President Ramaphosa on October 15. The first two phases outlined at the beginning of the pandemic response were themed "preserve" and "recover". The former comprised he...

ISRAEL - Report 19 Oct 2020 1 response

The deflationary environment persists, with core inflation down -0.4% y/y in September. Economic indicators point to a sharp deceleration of activity due to the second shutdown. Further monetary accommodation is expected from the Bank of Israel on Thursday. A negative sovereign rating outlook for...

MEXICO - Report 19 Oct 2020

Something troubling happened between the time the business community and President López Obrador announced a plan to reform the public pension system and the reform bill the administration delivered late last month. The praiseworthy purpose of the reform as agreed in July is to increase the n...

MEXICO - Report 19 Oct 2020

When the INE-supervised public opinion survey to choose the next leader of López Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement produced a tie the week before last between Porfirio Muñoz Ledo and Mario Delgado, we got another look at the intensity of the infighting in the party as well as a reminder of...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Oct 2020

On October 16 the US government said that prolonging the START Treaty by 1 year is out of the question. Putin had suggested doing so while a long term replacement is negotiated. Putin had wanted there to be no freeze on nuclear warheads during the extension.The US suggested a one year extension b...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Oct 2020

On October 15 a report was published on debt in Russia. Overdue loans are at an all time high. 12.5 million loan repayments are over 90 days behind. The National Association of Professional Collection Agencies revealed this. The credit bureau Equifax was also involved in the study. A further mill...

ISRAEL - In Brief 18 Oct 2020

Highlights:Inflation in September declined by -0.1% m/m and -0.7% y/y. Core inflation reached -0.4% y/y following -0.5% in August. Eight out of the ten major CPI items were zero or negative y/y. The PPI (excluding energy) declined by 1.9% y/y. Deflation in Israel is due to the steady shekel appre...