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China virus check – week ending July 6
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 09 Jul 2020
Our latest data for economic activity in China shows a general improvement in trends: 1) Coal use in the power industry was largely unchanged. 2) Iron ore blast furnace operating rates trended slightly higher but remain below year-earlier levels. 3) Traffic congestion rose sl...

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After contamination, Bolsonaro tries to build a narrative
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 08 Jul 2020
After confirming his coronavirus contamination, President Jair Bolsonaro has started to create a narrative that could mobilize his supporters. Yesterday, Bolsonaro posted a video on social media in which he takes a hydroxychloroquine pill, stating that he feels “very well” after three doses of th...

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BAHRAIN: Q1 GDP outturn is worse than it initially looks
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 08 Jul 2020
Bahrain’s GDP contracted by -1.1% y/y in Q1, similar to Saudi's but much less than Dubai's. One bright point was growth in oil & gas, due to increased gas output to power Alba’s expansion. Hotels contracted by a stunning -68% y/y, which is probably a substantial overestimate. However, the rest of...

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Abinader has been proclaimed elected President and PRM won absolute majority in the Senate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 08 Jul 2020
The Central Electoral Board proclaimed Luis Abinader and Raquel Peña as elected president and vice president. Abinader and his ballot partner obtained 52.5% of the votes, Gonzalo Castillo and Margarita Cedeño (current VP) of the PLD and allies obtained 37.5% and former President Leonel Fernández ...

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June CPI-inflation marginally below expectation, no big deal for central bank policy
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Jul 2020
The headline rate of CPI-inflation jumped to 2.9% yoy in June from 2.2% yoy in May, ending up just slightly below the 3% average analyst expectation. This anticipated sharp pick-up was clearly due to a 9.3% mom recovery by fuel prices (which were still down by 11.6% yoy), so it is essentially the...

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Bolsonaro tested positive for COVID-19
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 07 Jul 2020
President Jair Bolsonaro announced on July 7 that he tested positive for the coronavirus. In an announcement made live on TV Brasil, CNN and Rede Record, Bolsonaro said he has a fever of 38ºC, but that his temperature is already decreasing. He also reported that he had been feeling uneasy and tir...

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Really awful data out on May industry and tourism today
HUNGARY - In Brief 07 Jul 2020
The Statistical Office (KSH) is making a good contribution to the quantification of the Covid-19 economic impact this week. Earlier today, they released industrial output and guest nights spent at hotels for May. Their freshly reported data is really quite poor in the sense that although they ref...

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Russian Government seeks USD 2 billion compensation for oil spill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Jul 2020
On July 6 Moscow said that Nornickel should voluntarily pay compensation for the worst oil spill in Arctic history. The mining company. The Russian Environment Agency said 21 000 tons of diesel leaked out. Norilsk Taimyr is the subsidiary of Nornickel which is responsible. This would be about 33%...

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​The BoI will purchase corporate bonds
ISRAEL - In Brief 07 Jul 2020 1 response
The MPC decided to maintain present policy rates on hold at 0.1%, but announced a plan to purchase 15bn ILS of Israeli corporate bonds rated A- or higher in the secondary market. In addition, the Bank of Israel will renew its three-year loans to the banks at 0.1%. The monetary announcement reflec...

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Education Minister appointment still pending
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 Jul 2020
After a strong reaction from the so-called "ideological wing", President Jair Bolsonaro´s intention to appoint the state secretary of Paraná, Renato Feder, to the Ministry of Education was rendered unfeasible. Last night, after becoming the target of attacks on social media, Feder thanked Bolsona...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 Jul 2020
Between June 1st and July 2nd, the number of COVID-19 deaths in Brazil doubled, from 31 thousand to 62 thousand, while the number of infected people nearly tripled, from 555 thousand to 1.5 million, only lower than the number recorded in the United States (2.8 million). The country has not had a ...

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A complex municipal election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 Jul 2020
President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to announce the new Minister of Education. He is also expected to sanction Provisional Measure 936, which allows for salary and working hour cuts during the pandemic. The House may vote on Provisional Measure 925, which includes aid to the aviation sector. Flá...

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Politics: Presidential approval slips
MEXICO - Report 06 Jul 2020
President López Obrador has realized a goal he seems to have set for himself from the outset that has become a growing presence in his daily morning press conferences: a discourse consciously designed to pit society between those who back him against all those who do not and might stand in his wa...

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Russian political and pandemic update: In search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 06 Jul 2020
Recent reports suggest that Russia’s daily numbers of those newly contaminated with COVID-19 continued to fall slowly but steadily in June and in early July. The recovery ratio in Russia remains high, and the total number of people who have recovered has exceeded the current number of “active cas...

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Economics: Trade plunges as USMCA takes effect
MEXICO - Report 06 Jul 2020
Last week marked a significant development in Mexico’s economic relations with the rest of the world, as the revised North American free trade agreement in the form of the reconfigured United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was formally launched, with all the challenges and risks it entai...