Country Insights

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Coronavirus cases reach record in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Oct 2021
On October 17 Russia broke its own record for new diagnoses yet again. 34,000 new cases have been reported. There were almost 1,000 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours. There are only 20,000 beds left in hospitals. These will all soon be full.The Health Minister urged all retired physicians to get vac...

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Opposition primary vote has been won by a non-party politician
HUNGARY - In Brief 17 Oct 2021
The second round of the united opposition's primary election, which was intended to select the common candidate for prime minister in next April's parliamentary election, ended last night. It drew 662 thousand voters, 29 thousand more than the first round, meaning truly great electoral interest, ...

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Buckle up
TURKEY - Report 17 Oct 2021 1 response
October brought more Brownian motion to the boiling cauldron of Turkish politics, which makes it even more difficult to read the trends. We spot the slow-motion collapse of Erdogan’s power as well as the fortunes of the AKP-MHP alliance. The administration has lost its ability to control the nati...

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China's energy shortage is an opportunity for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 17 Oct 2021
Several Chinese provinces are rationing electricity due to a paucity of power. In late September 2021 China asked the Russian electricity company Inter RAO to supply more electricity.China is striving to go carbon neutral by 2060. This will change the energy market considerably. In the medium ter...

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All roads lead to Mexico but no one travels them
VENEZUELA - In Brief 16 Oct 2021
A new round of negotiations was scheduled to begin in Mexico tomorrow, October 17. At the time of writing, the Maduro government announced it suspends negotiations in protest against Alex Saab’s extradition to the United States by Cape Verde on money laundering charges. It’s too soon to tell how ...

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GULF WEEKLY: IMF forecasts improve, Moody’s stabilizes Oman, Sadr wins the Iraqi election
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 15 Oct 2021
​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $85 as the IEA lifted its demand forecasts, and Saudi played down a faster taper. * The IMF’s latest WEO forecasts see the GCC returning to a general fiscal balance in 2023. * MBS launched the Saudi National ...

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Bolsonaro says he is considering privatizing Petrobras, the STF begins analysis of the ADI on the extension of the payroll tax exemption, and the court-ordered payments PEC may be put to a vote next week
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 15 Oct 2021
Given the difficulty the government faced in approving the privatization of Eletrobras, Bolsonaro is unlikely to start another political battle for the privatization of Petrobras at this time. His statement, however, does help to show the general public that he remains dissatisfied with the rise ...

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September’s CPI was in line with expectations
ISRAEL - In Brief 15 Oct 2021
September’s CPI was in line with expectations Inflation in September rose by 0.2% and 2.5% y/y (up from 2.2% in August). Core inflation accelerated to 2.1% y/y from 1.9% last month. The main items which surprised on the upside were processed food prices (up 0.6% and 2.7% y/y) and fruits and veget...

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Russian oil supermajor sells stake in Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Oct 2021
On October 14 Rosneft sold its 5% stake in a huge Arctic Oil project to Swiss and Singaporean commodity trading houses. This is the Vostok Oil Project, which is intended to exploit currently untapped resources in the Arctic and produce over 700 million barrels of oil per annum by 2030. That was R...

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The House approved the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels, the court-ordered payments PEC may be put to a vote next week, and the Senate agenda is becoming congested
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Oct 2021
Currently, the ICMS tax on fuels is calculated based on the average price, revised every 15 days according to a price survey at the service stations. In other legislative progress, after approval in the Committee, which has been scheduled for next Tuesday, the court-ordered payments PEC may be in...

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Putin: Russia will be carbon neutral by 2060
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 14 Oct 2021
On October 14 the Russian President announced the new policy. His country is the 3rd biggest emitter of carbon due relying so heavily on oil, gas and coal exports. Putin said oil and coal will be used less and less. It had been mooted that Russia would give itself 80 years to be carbon neutral bu...

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​Hectic political agenda warrants a mid-week Brief
TURKEY - In Brief 14 Oct 2021
I intended to pen this Market Brief yesterday,focusing on Erdogan’s hint at a new military campaign in Tel Rifat (Map below) and the rising chorus of opposition leaders taking claims of political assassinations seriously. Within 24 hours, a major scandal broke out concerning TUGVA, an educational...

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Russian budget: medium-term budget plan – policy to stay, only the numbers to change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 13 Oct 2021
In September, the government submitted the 2022-2024 rolling budget to the Duma along with the estimate of the budget execution in 2021 and the medium-term economic outlook. The government has usually been very conservative in its estimates and frequently drafted the budget with a deficit, but th...

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The House votes on the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels, Minister Paulo Guedes has several meetings in Washington DC, and the Pandemic CPI decides not to summon Minister Queiroga for a third testimony
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 Oct 2021
Yesterday, the rapporteur of the bill that deals with the ICMS tax on fuels, Dr. Jaziel, submitted a favorable report. As a complementary bill, it needs at least 257 votes in the House. In Washington DD, Minister Paulo Guedes will participate in the 4th Meeting of Finance Ministers and Presidents...

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​Que Sera, Sara
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 13 Oct 2021
What we know at this time:The period for filing of certificates of candidacy (COC) closed last Friday and six publicly recognizable figures are running for the presidency. In alphabetical order: Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso, Senator Ronald dela Rosa, Senator Panfilo Lacson, former Senator Ferd...