GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

President Lula has a busy schedule this week. Today, he will launch the Desenrola program for financially compliant consumers, aimed at individuals who keep their bill payments up to date. Beginning Saturday, July 4, certain actions by public officials will be prohibited due to the October electi...

Economics: June data signal persistent economic weakness, policy uncertainty, and rising fiscal risks

MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2026

Mexico's economy continues to underperform in 2026, with our GDP growth forecast at just 0.9% for the full year. Private investment has contracted for 19 consecutive months and is expected to remain weak throughout the year, held back by uncertainty — including about the USMCA renegotiation and t...

Rethinking Argentina's 2026–27 external financing gap

ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2026 · 1 response

Back in January, I argued that the combined US dollar debt obligations of the National Treasury and the Central Bank (BCRA) appeared too large relative to the Milei administration's capacity to finance them through the end of the presidential term. Six months later, that situation looks considera...

No snap elections in 2026, thus spoke the politics author

TURKEY · Report · 28 Jun 2026

Despite objections from Greek and Israeli lobbies, the NATO Ankara summit is poised to turn into a love-fest between Messrs. Trump and Erdogan, with parties exchanging numerous gifts. Trump’s expected favors to Turkey could help scale up the defense industry and rebuild enough trust in Ankara to ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil back to pre-war level, Qatar suffers major gas accident, Bahrain’s FX reserves slide

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jun 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $72, its pre-war level, as Hormuz transits picked up, despite an attack on a cargo ship. * US-Iran talks at a Qatari hotel in Switzerland seemed to make some progress. * Gulf foreign ministers engaged with I...

Outlook on inflation and the exchange rate

INDIA · Report · 26 Jun 2026

The emergence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific during mid-2026 has impacted upon the monsoon and food price outlook for this year. Earlier it was just a forecast, but by late June we are seeing a significant cumulative precipitation deficit which would constrai...

Even if war ends soon, expect future negative economic impacts

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Jun 2026

Higher inflation and lower economic growth globally are the foreseeable international trends for this year, as a sequel to the Iran war. Those outlooks will hardly change before 2027, whether or not the Middle East conflict ends soon, because the direct and secondary effects on oil and other comm...

Michelle Bolsonaro’s video continues to cause political fallout, the STF may rule on a case limiting benefits received by senior public officials, and electoral restrictions begin on July 4

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2026

The video of former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro criticizing Senator and PL presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro continues to generate political fallout. Rumors have emerged about the possibility of replacing Flávio as the party's presidential nominee. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) may...

Colombia elections and outlook for the next administration - Slide presentation and webinar replay

COLOMBIA · Presentation · 26 Jun 2026

Get insight into the result of the presidential runoff election, the next administration's priorities and the impact on Colombia's outlook with the slide presentation and replay from our recent webinar, "Colombia elections and outlook for the next administration".

Kyrgyzstan has yet to convincingly rein in opaque trade flows

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2026 · 1 response

I must admit that I have a soft spot for Kyrgyzstan's BoP data. It is probably the most exciting set of external flows from an analytical perspective in my CCA region and a treasury trove for drawing conclusions about Bishkek's efforts to clamp down on opaque trade with Russia. The analysis is, o...

Senator Jaques Wagner will step down as government leader in the Senate, Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro posted a video about Flávio Bolsonaro, and former President Jair Bolsonaro's house arrest ends today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2026

After meeting with President Lula (PT) on Wednesday (June 24), Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA) announced that he will step down as the government's leader in the Senate. Wagner's departure had been expected and comes as no surprise. Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) posted a video statement...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opposition cross-pollination in the South Caucasus—Armenia and Georgia exchanging lessons from the political battlefield

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Jun 2026

Two key events have taken place in the Armenian and Georgian political fields these days. In the former, I see no surprises coming from tomorrow's Constitutional Court decision on the validity of the elections as the Court will rubber stamp Pashinyan's victory. The really interesting debate th...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2026

In recent weeks, the ruble shifted from the USD/RUB 70-72 range seen at the end of May and earlier this month to USD/RUB 74-76. This healthy correction came amid expectations and the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices fell, with Brent dropping from $95/bbl at the st...

BSP extends regulatory relief to banks amid the Middle East conflict: a new dimension of Central Banking?

PHILIPPINES · Report · 24 Jun 2026

In providing a temporary regulatory relief to the banks, this Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) regulatory response represents a departure from the conventional approach adopted by most regional central banks by combining monetary policy with targeted prudential and supervisory relief for banks...

Flávio Bolsonaro stated that he will travel to the U.S. to advocate against the 25% tariffs, Operation Mirage will investigate Brazil’s National Financial System, and the STF will hear cases on digital platform employment

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2026

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) stated yesterday that he will travel to the United States to advocate, on July 6, against the imposition of tariffs on Brazilian companies by the U.S. government. Flávio is expected to argue for the suspension of the proposed 25% tariff on Brazilian products and to d...