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2025: The good, the bad and the ugly
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2026

The good: 2025 closed with good news in the economic area—a slight increase of 1.6% in adequate employment as 380,000 new jobs were created; lower poverty based on income level, which fell from a rate of 28% in 2024 to 21.4% in 2025; strong growth of 19.5% y/y in non-oil exports; and a 20.7% incr...

Pivoting to stabilization
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jan 2026 · 1 response

Venezuela has entered an abrupt political transition that fundamentally reshapes the economic outlook for 2026-2027. Expectations shifted from a near-certain return to hyperinflation and recession toward a stabilization scenario, driven by access to roughly $10-12 billion in previously unanticipa...

Election campaign gains momentum; economy decelerated in November 2025; BCRP steps up FX intervention; and MEF to reorganize PetroPerú
PERU · Report · 20 Jan 2026

We cover three topics in this report. First, we analyze developments in the runup to the April 12 general elections. Second, we look at the economy, and argue that a deceleration began in Q4 2025. Finally, we turn to local financial markets, and discuss the increased FX intervention by the Centra...

Legal risk in India: the Mauritius Treaty and the rule of law
INDIA · Report · 20 Jan 2026

On January 15, 2026, the Supreme Court of India delivered a verdict against Tiger Global, ruling that its Mauritius-based entities were liable for capital gains tax on the 2018 sale of Flipkart shares to Walmart. This decision marks the final end of the residence-based taxation regime that had on...

Hungary's MOL is set to acquire a majority stake in Serbia's NIS oil refinery
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jan 2026

MOL has just said it signed a binding letter of intent to acquire a 56% controlling stake in Serbia's Nafta Industrija Srbije (NIS) company, which includes the country's only oil refinery at Pancevo, a retail network and a hydrocarbon exploration and production branch. MOL is buying this stake fr...

Despite Lula's edge the election is likely to be tight and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2026

Two new presidential succession polls will be released this week, one by AtlasIntel and another by Instituto Futura. The World Economic Forum takes place in Davos, Switzerland, without the meaningful participation of Brazilian authorities. The European Parliament is set to vote on two proposals r...

What to expect for the Year of the Horse
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jan 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - China’s economy ended 2025 much as it began—with an overreliance on a growing trade surplus and non-productive investment to drive growth. A sharp decline in the latter over the year saw quarterly GDP growth decline steadily from a very strong 5.4...

We’re gonna need a bigger boat…
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2026

There is considerable debate regarding Brazil’s growth potential. Despite a visible acceleration of the Brazilian economy in the post-pandemic period, when GDP grew around 3% per year, we have argued that a considerable portion of this performance is due to the utilization of previously idle reso...

Fear of floating
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Jan 2026

The beginning of the new year brought few surprises. The BCRA began to make daily purchases of reserves as announced; it also canceled the tranche of the swap with the U.S. Treasury disbursed in October and placed a one-year repo with international banks, the proceeds of which were sold in part t...

Rising security risks in Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 19 Jan 2026

By Fernando Naranjo and Félix Delgado  Guatemala is facing a period of heightened security stress with significant institutional and economic implications. Over the past weekend, inmates seized control of three prisons while gang members carried out coordinated attacks that resulted in the murder...

Policy response to slumping business sentiment
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Jan 2026

Amid declining confidence in the business community—reflected in various opinion polls following the flood control scandals—the Philippine government’s economic managers convened around 300 top business leaders on Friday, January 16, 2026. The meeting sought to reassure investors of the governmen...

A brief lull in excitement
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2026

Much fun has gone out from domestic politics as, for reasons to be explored, President Erdogan unilaterally ceased his attacks on CHP. Instead, the new agenda is his succession plan, involving his son Bilal. Erdogan has no intention to retire; Bilal is being groomed for the post in case of an eme...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran protests subside, Saudi minerals deals, Oman cabinet reshuffle
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jan 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil touched a two-month high of $66 when Iran-US tensions peaked mid-week, then eased. * At least 3,000 were killed in Iran, but Trump backed off plans for military action, for now at least. * The US did announce a 25% ta...

Economic growth remained strong in December
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator—a flash estimate of economic activity across six main sectors—rose by 9.4% in 2025. For 11M25, it was up 9.3%, suggesting a bit of acceleration in the final month. Transportation and warehousing led the way with 20.4% growth...

CIS Essential Politics: January 1-15
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2026

Headlines: - Corruption scandal in Ukraine claims Timoshenko. - Ukraine reshuffles cabinet. - Humanitarian crisis in Ukraine as Russia annihilates the Ukrainian energy sector. - US seizes tanker linked to Russian shadow fleet.

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