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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The AGU filed an ADC to defend the constitutionality of the IOF tax hike, the House postponed the vote on the urgent status request for the tax benefits bill, and the Senate approved the MP that expands access to the Social Fund
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2025

The Office of the Attorney General (AGU) has filed a Declaratory Action of Constitutionality (ADC 96) with the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to defend the constitutionality of President Lula’s decree increasing the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF). Justice Alexandre de Moraes is serving as the r...

Erdogan – Ozel feud: A temporary reprieve
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Contrary to expectations of a majority of experts, the court postponed its ruling on the CHP convention fraud case to 8 September which evoked new thinking about potential outcomes and timing. Is Erdogan making a peace offer to Ozel, or is this just a tactical pause? Spoiler alert, it is the latt...

The new leadership of the Legislative Assembly will be headed by a last-minute surprise candidate, Jorge Herrera, who defeated the favorite backed by José Raúl Mulino and Ricardo Martinelli and the PRD party.
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025

Context ahead of a key session in the Assembly Every year, on July 1st, the Legislative Assembly elects its presidents and vice presidents for a one-year term. The person who presides over the Assembly signs the laws issued by the State’s bodies, authorizes the legislature’s expenses (an importan...

Argentina ordered to surrender its 51% stake in YPF
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025

Yesterday, Judge Loretta Preska from the Southern District Court of NY ordered the Government of Argentina to surrender the 51% stake it has in YPF, the national oil company, to partially satisfy a $16.1 billion court judgement issued in 2023 and whose main beneficiary is Burford Capital. The gov...

Hugo Motta stated that the vote to overturn the IOF tax hike had support from both the right and the left, the House may vote on an urgent status request for another tax bill, and the import tax on electric vehicles will increase
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), stated that the vote to overturn the IOF tax hike included support from both right- and left-wing deputies. He criticized what he called the polarization of “us versus them.” Today, the House may vote on an urgent status request for ...

Maduro calls for peace—with one eye on opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2025

It is too soon to predict the impact of the Iran–Israel ceasefire announced by President Trump on June 23. In any case, developments in the conflict point to a geopolitical realignment the effects of which will reach far beyond the Middle East. Even if Iran chooses to escalate, it will do so from...

Monetary policy rate remains unchanged in July 2025
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025

The Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy interest rate unchanged at 5.75% annually for the seventh consecutive month. The rate for the overnight liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) also remains at 6.25% annually, while the rate for overnight remunerated deposits continues at 4....

Politics: The concentration of power and populism in the 4T have resulted in little effectiveness in economic development and security
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2025

In her nine months in office, Claudia Sheinbaum’s priorities have been aimed at a) concretizing AMLO’s “Plan C” of enshrining the 4T’s policies in the constitution, thereby altering the country’s political regime and further concentrating power in the presidency and b) limiting the damage caused ...

The IOF battle heads to the Supreme Court and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2025

The repeal of the IOF decree by Congress continues to resonate. The government is seeking a solution to offset the lost revenue. Lawmakers are staging a protest against Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,303/25, which taxes financial investments and raises taxes on bets and fintechs. The government i...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2025

- Impact on Russia and Ukraine of the Iran-Israel conflict: an analysis. - Ukraine launches a daring attack on Russian strategic bombers. - Russia’s Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov alerts of risk of recession. - Armenia in political crisis as Pashinyan squares off agains...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jun 2025

OVERVIEW IN SEARCH OF POLARIZATION  With his popularity in steady decline, loss of support in Congress, and Bolsonaro’s candidacy, the so-called "evil“, increasingly unlikely, Lula has decided to dust off the old rhetoric of the struggle between the rich and the poor, or the “upper floor” ...

Economics: Mexican economy expected to stall further this year but could begin to see some minimal growth heading into 2026
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jun 2025

What are the factors behind Mexico's ongoing economic slowdown? Can a strong peso endure? Will there be a satisfactory ending to free trade and foreign investment in Mexico? Those are a few of the questions we attempt to answer in this week’s Economic Outlook as we summarize our macroeconomic fra...

Bolsonaro held a rally yesterday, the government continues to discuss alternatives to the IOF, and the government will launch the Sustainable Car program this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2025

Yesterday, former President Jair Bolsonaro held a rally in São Paulo in support of an amnesty bill. The crowd, estimated between 16,000 and 17,000 people, was one of the smallest turnouts at an event organized by the former president. In the coming days, the government may decide what measures to...

June economic updates and some insights into the performance of Polish manufacturing
POLAND · Report · 30 Jun 2025

Poland’s economy in mid-2025 is walking a fine line: inflation is cooling but remains sticky, public investment is accelerating even as private capital lags, and manufacturing is showing faint signs of recovery despite mixed sentiment and faltering export demand. In this report, we look at the la...

Desperate for any minor win, Putin escalates terror tactics
UKRAINE · Report · 30 Jun 2025

While peace talks lead nowhere, we’ve shifted our attention back to the front lines—where developments on the ground have a real impact in deterring Russian aggression, unlike the endless cycle of negotiations. As of this writing, reported Russian losses in Ukraine have exceeded 1 million kill...

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