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Rate stability with a more dovish forward guidance likely today
ISRAEL - Report 06 Jul 2020
We expect a rate hold decision today but with a more dovish forward guidance, including low rates for a considerable period of time and bond purchases into 2021. Recent indicators point to some growth in activity but at a slow pace, with the recent spike in infections expected to slow recovery. T...

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Further moderately negative data on retail sales, foreign trade and the PMI
HUNGARY - In Brief 06 Jul 2020
More accurately, the new data is very negative at face value; it is moderately negative only in the sense that it does not seem to provide evidence for any further deterioration of the current performance and of the macro outlook, as compared to our current, as we believe, reasonably pessimistic ...

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A more expansionary monetary policy likely today
ISRAEL - In Brief 06 Jul 2020
The Bank of Israel is likely to announce a more expansionary monetary policy today, in light of the rather weak recovery and headwinds from the spike in infections (increasing limitations on certain sectors), as well as the deeply negative core inflation in May (-0.5% y/y). This more expansionary...

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Abinader wins the presidential election with 54% of the votes
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 05 Jul 2020
Today, the opposition defeated the PLD by a wide margin in national elections and there will be no need for a second electoral round. Partial but irreversible results indicate that Luis Abinader (PRM and allies), obtained about 54% of the votes, while Castillo (PLD and allies) managed only 35%. F...

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All noise, little signal
TURKEY - Report 05 Jul 2020
While political noise is deafeningly high, we find few harbingers of anything significant happening soon. We stay on top of developments in Turko-American and Russian relations, as well as the conflicts in Syria and Libya, yet detect little sign of imminent trouble or relief. At home, people s...

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Rate stability with a more dovish forward guidance likely this week
ISRAEL - In Brief 05 Jul 2020
The highlights of our Weekly Macro Wrap Up 6.7.20Recent data points to a slow recovery as PC growth remains weak:Credit card purchases increased in the last week of June but remains 8% below the level at the beginning of the year.Chain store sales in May are down 16% y/y, while food sales are up....

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Russian business dissatisfied with state support
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Jul 2020
On July 1 Russia's main business newspaper Kommersant revealed that some of Russia's largest firms have lamented inadequate financial support from the government in the wake of coronavirus. Claiming financial aid is unduly onerous due to excessive form filling. The government listed 1 300 compani...

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The Head of the Central bank dismissed: what’s next?
UKRAINE - In Brief 04 Jul 2020 1 response
Yesterday Verkhovna Rada approved resignation of Yakiv Smoliy, the Head of the NBU. 286 MPs – almost constitutional majority – supported the decision. Media wrote the dismissal of Smoliy was a personal whim of Zelenskiy. Allegedly Zelenskiy summoned Smoliy to the President Office and there was a ...

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The dispute for the Ministry of Education
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 03 Jul 2020
​The media reported today that President Jair Bolsonaro had defined Paraná´s Secretary of Education, Renato Feder, as the new Minister of Education. Feder was already wanted for the job after Abraham Weintraub left. However, Bolsonaro ended up opting for Professor Carlos Decotelli, who resigne...

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CNE: Securing jobs for the regime’s new “best friends”
VENEZUELA - In Brief 03 Jul 2020
On 1 July, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced the rules for the 6 December 2020 parliamentary elections. The new system guarantees PSUV a strong majority in the National Assembly (AN) and opens an institutional space for the small parties grouped as the Negotiating Table (MDN) geared ...

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India buys Russian warplanes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Jul 2020
On July 2 India announced it is buying 33 Russian-made fighters and is paying for upgrades to 59 Russian-made jets that it already owns. This contract is worth over USD 2.4 billion. The planes are MiGs 29s. 12 Su 30 MKI Russian designed planes will be built in India by agreement with Russia. Indi...

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​GULF WEEKLY: Dubai Q1 worse than Saudi, stimuluses extended, Iraq hopes for IMF loan
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Jul 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Dubai’s Q1 GDP (-3.5% y/y) was much weaker than Saudi's because of its more open economy. * Oil rose but Angola could be a spoiler to the OPEC+ deal and a Libyan restart is ...

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Household debt and the shadow banking market in China
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 03 Jul 2020
China’s recovery will depend on the ability of households to continue to consume. However, over the past several years, household debt has climbed steadily. This particularly includes mortgage debt. Meanwhile, investments in shadow banking through Wealth Management Products have remained at high ...

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Reality bites, now what?
TURKEY - Report 03 Jul 2020 1 response
Consumer prices rose at a much higher than expected 1.1% in June, with the 12-month rate increasing sharply to 12.6%, from 11.4% in May, versus our forecast of just over 12%. Domestic-PPI inflation was 0.7%, m/m, with the 12-month rate also rising to 6.2% from 5.5% a month ago, reversing the down...

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Ukraine postpones Eurobond sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 03 Jul 2020
On July 2 Ukraine decided to delay its USD 1.75 billion Eurobond sale due to the resignation of the head of the national bank. The government has negotiated with investors about this decision. As a result of these developments the Ukrainian currency fell to its lowest against USD since April 2020...