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Where does the buck stop?
TURKEY - Report 18 Oct 2020 2 responses
On Saturday midnight Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a second ceasefire, which may prove durable unlike the first one. Turkey began testing of the Russian made S-400s on Saturday, which raises the threat of the new Congress immediately attending to passing the CAATSA legislation on Turkey. New t...

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New ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 18 Oct 2020
On October 17 the two Caucasian countries agreed a ceasefire effective at midnight. France, Russia and the US all midwifed this agreement as the Minsk Group. Just before the ceasefire an Armenian missile hit Azerbaijan and allegedly killed 13 civilians. The fighting since September 27 killed over...

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OMAN: S&P downgrades to record low of B+
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 17 Oct 2020
S&P's downgrade is a result of a larger than previously expected hit from the current crisis and despite greater confidence in the government's commitment to fiscal reform. We had expected Oman would try to issue a bond before the scheduled rating update but nonetheless it could still come to mar...

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Tinkoff ends tentative USD 5.5 billion deal with Yandex causing share plunge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Oct 2020
On October 16 it was announced that the mooted merger between Russia's main tech company and a bank is off. Tinkoff bank's founder Oleg Tinkov pulled away from negotiations. Tinkoff's holding company TCS is listed in the London Stock Exchange.Tinkoff and Yandex said that they had an agreement in ...

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Kyrgyz Parliament confirms Japarov as president and prime minister
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Oct 2020
On October 16 Prime Minister Japarov was confirmed by Parliament as president as well as PM. President Jeenbekov resigned. He said it was to prevent bloodshed.The Speaker of Parliament was supposed to take over as president but said no. The presidency seems a poisoned chalice because the country ...

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Kyrgyz PM claims presidential power as president resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Oct 2020
On October 14 Sadyr Japarov said that he was assuming presidential authority as President Jeenbekov resigned. The Speaker of Parliament is supposed to become the president in this scenario but declined to do so. Only days ago Japarov was in jail for hostage taking. Since disputed elections on Oct...

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​GULF WEEKLY: IMF forecasts bigger contractions, Qatar Q2 GDP, Oman VAT & gas
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 16 Oct 2020
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * IMF forecasts bigger contractions but smaller deficits across GCC. * NCB and Samba merged in Saudi, and FAB-ADIB bank merger talks restarted in UAE. * Saudi lost its bid ...

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Shenzhen's challenge to Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 16 Oct 2020
Beijing has just thrown its political and financial backing to Shenzhen in a clear slap in the face to Hong Kong. Xi Jinping gave a speech in Shenzhen this week promoting Shenzhen. As a result, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam postponed her state of the union address, although later reporting...

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The Russian industry’s dichotomy: manufacturing flat, mining down y-o-y in 9m20
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 16 Oct 2020
Rosstat reported that the industrial production was down in 3Q20 by 5.0% y-o-y, while in 9m20 it was down by 2.9%. Y-o-y contraction was deeper in 2Q20 (-6.5% y-o-y). It was mostly mining which held the industrial growth in the negative area, as OPEC+ deal had a strong impact on oil volumes. In 3...

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Why is FDI rising?
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 16 Oct 2020
Early this week, the BSP released data showing net foreign direct investments (FDI) rising for the third straight month in July, by 35% yoy to $797 million. Following the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, 6th Edition (BPM6), FDIs represent equity and debt flo...

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The First Deputy Head of the NBU Rozhkova might be dismissed tomorrow
UKRAINE - In Brief 15 Oct 2020
Social nets and local media actively discuss potential dismissal of the First Deputy Head of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova and the Deputy Head Dmytro Sologub. Some bloggers report the NBU Council plans to dismiss both top officials tomorrow, the others say only Rozhkova is on the list. Kateryna Rozhk...

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September’s CPI comes in as expected, supportive of monetary accomodation
ISRAEL - In Brief 15 Oct 2020
Inflation in September declined by 0.1% m/m and declined by -0.7% y/y (following -0.8% in August), coming in according to expectations (market and ours), although several local forecasters expected zero m/m.Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) inched slightly higher to -0.4...

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Outright dictatorship
VENEZUELA - Report 15 Oct 2020
On October 8, the National Constituent Assembly rubber-stamped Nicolás Maduro’s “Anti-Blockade Law” (Ley Contra el Bloqueo, LCB), which authorizes Maduro to suspend the legal system, decide on any matter, and use public assets as he sees fit and in total secrecy. Its objective is to generate fina...

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Russia licenses second vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Oct 2020
On October 14 the announcement was made by the president. The fact that Putin said it indicates the importance attached thereto. The peptide-based shot was created by Vektor (State Virology and Biotechnology Center). The EpiVacCorona has been administered to some cabinet ministers. Over 100 volun...

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Ukrainian local elections to include consultative referenda
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Oct 2020
On October 13 the president said that the local elections on October 25 will include referenda on 5 issues. The referenda results shall be non-binding. Zelensky promised to hold such polls as part of his manifesto when he was elected.The referenda will likely boost turnout particularly among youn...