BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Jun 2022

The PEC on Fuels will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment of ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. Despite successive postponem...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 28 Jun 2022

On June 28 Russian newspaper Kommersant said that five civil aviation industry sources had told them the new unofficial policy. In March 2022 airlines starting making pilots redundant because Russian airlines lost most of their international routes and a high majority of their passengers. Russian...

CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 28 Jun 2022

Costa Rica’s most important economic feature in the first two months of the new Rodrigo Chaves administration has been the challenge for Central Bank policies, due to mounting global inflation that has exceeded the upper bound of Bank targets, coupled with rising FX pressures. Although at first s...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Jun 2022

The IPCA-15 for June, announced last week, increased the concern regarding unanchoring of expectations. All the core measures have continued to rise, and the annualized rates (quarterly and monthly) of the great majority of the disaggregated indexes are now higher than the cumulative rate over th...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 28 Jun 2022

The PEC on Fuels will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment for ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. The government is hoping to...

HUNGARY - In Brief 28 Jun 2022

The Monetary Council raised the MNB base rate by no less than 185bps, to 7.75% today. Simultaneously, the O/N and 1-week credit rate was raised 10.25%, meaning that the interest rate corridor, the floor of which is the base rate itself, was reduced to 250bps from the previous 300bps. All this was...

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 28 Jun 2022

Given that the Kazakh economy performed relatively well in 5M22 as industry, construction, transportation and storage sector, trade, and communications were up by 4.4%, 8.9%, 8.1%, 10.8%, and 7.2% y-o-y, respectively, the budget execution numbers looked encouraging as well. Note that there were s...

MEXICO - Report 28 Jun 2022

As the international economic scenario continues to deteriorate and multilateral institutions and analysts alike scale back their growth estimates, we need to assess the extent to which a weaker economic outlook abroad, especially in the United States, is likely to affect Mexico. More specificall...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 27 Jun 2022

The US and Iranian nuclear negotiators are arriving in Doha shortly for their first (indirect) talks since the JCPOA discussions in Vienna went on an extended pause in March. There have been rumors that Iran might be willing to postpone a removal of the IRGC's terrorism designation, the main outs...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Jun 2022

The focus in the Senate will be the vote on the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on Fuels, with the expansion of social benefits (Auxílio Brasil, a gas voucher and truck drivers' voucher). Caio Paes de Andrade may assume the presidency of Petrobras. The Futura/Banco Modal poll on the presi...

MEXICO - Report 27 Jun 2022

The country’s public security crisis is showing no signs of abating. The figures are alarming indeed, at around 3,000 murders, 1,500 missing persons and 80 femicides per month. Through the 41 months of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, the number of intentional homicides rea...

VENEZUELA - Report 27 Jun 2022

Nicolás Maduro has made use of the pause in the Mexico talks to strengthen his international legitimacy by signaling his regime's adherence to the Russian sphere and welcoming authorizations granted by the U.S. government to Chevron and to ENI–Repsol. Chevron may now start talks with sanctioned V...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Jun 2022

The PEC will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment for ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. The government is hoping to complete...

ISRAEL - Report 27 Jun 2022

* Markets appear unfazed by early elections; fiscal credibility is expected to be maintained. * Residential completions remain weak; low housing inventory supports further pressure on housing rental prices. * Economic indicators point to fairly stable growth and a tight labor market, sup...

HUNGARY - In Brief 27 Jun 2022

Just five days ago, we said in our monthly report that we expect the MNB to defend the EURHUF 400 line for a few weeks at least, to keep the pretty much unavoidable depreciation of the forint under control, with a view to moderating its pace. We also said we did not expect any increase in the pac...