GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Understanding the Indian macroeconomy necessitates high-frequency, robust data, particularly given the recent onset of the conflict in West Asia and the persisting effects of the 2025 US tariff regime. Traditional aggregate statistics suffer from measurement lags, but corporate earnings releases ...

Middle East war effects come home to roost

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2026

In Costa Rica, the Central Bank’s May 2026 Monetary Policy Report confirms a dual-speed economy. The special regime slowed in Q1 2026 as 2025’s front-loading of U.S.-bound orders faded, while the definitive regime remained weak, despite a construction-led lift from the electoral cycle. Manufactur...

Justice Nunes Marques has given the PGR twenty days to issue an opinion on Bolsonaro’s request for a criminal review, the House approved the end of the 6x1 work schedule, and Lula leads in the latest presidential polls

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2026

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques has given the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) twenty days to issue an opinion on former President Jair Bolsonaro’s request for a criminal review of the 27-year-and-three-month prison sentence imposed on him in the criminal case related to the attempted coup d’é...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 May 2026

Recent windfalls from oil exports have kept the USD/RUB near the 70 mark over the past two weeks. The market expects the ruble-denominated equivalent of FX purchases for the National Wealth Fund to rise in June to R250-300 bln from R110 bln in May, which could weaken the ruble by 2-3%. In the lon...

Flávio Bolsonaro met with Donald Trump yesterday, the Special Committee is expected to vote on the rapporteur’s report on the 6x1 work schedule, and the Senate may analyze a bill on special uses for the Pre-Salt Social Fund

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2026

Yesterday, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro met with U.S. President Donald Trump. According to Flávio, he told Trump that, if elected, Brazil would have an allied government, and that once elected, he would negotiate agreements that could benefit companies from both countries. Among other objectives, Flá...

Economics: Mexico's economic environment is deteriorating on multiple fronts

MEXICO · Report · 26 May 2026

The US-Iran conflict has driven Brent crude prices 54% above their 2025 historical average, generating inflationary pressures and threatening to slow global growth by between -0.7% and -1.3% in 2026, according to IMF projections. Mexico enters this adverse international environment from a positio...

The rapporteur of the 6x1 work schedule proposal presented his report, the Special Committee on the MEI revenue cap increase continues discussions, and the government is focused on approving the proposal quickly

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2026

Federal Deputy Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA), rapporteur of the proposal to end the 6-on-1-off work schedule, presented his report yesterday before the Special Committee discussing the matter. The goal is to vote on the proposal in committee on Wednesday and subsequently move it to the Lower House...

No change from the MNB and Moody's, difficult talks with EU continue, and further steps are made towards democracy

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2026

Really a lot is happening in these days. Today, the MNB kept the base rate unchanged at 6.25%. The Council discussed a hold and a rate cut scenario, Mr. Varga said after the meeting, and there was (were?) also vote(s?) supporting a rate reduction as well. Positives observed by the Council include...

Politics: 4T balance sheet — a deteriorating outlook

MEXICO · Report · 26 May 2026

Claudia Sheinbaum's government has been largely consumed by managing the difficult legacy inherited from López Obrador. This legacy includes a stagnant and indebted economy, a public security crisis rooted in the "hugs, not bullets" policy toward organized crime, an authoritarian-leaning politica...

On the wrong side

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2026

At the beginning of the month, the federal government announced Novo Desenrola Brasil, a program aimed at household debt restructuring through discounts and lower interest rates. The program, however, is not isolated and is now part of a broader set of measures intended to stimulate consumption t...

Questions after Flávio's setback and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2026

This will be a decisive week for the vote on the 6x1 work schedule proposal. Following the presentation of the rapporteur’s opinion, the expectation is that the text will be submitted to the Special Committee and then to the floor of the Lower House. Bills related to rural debt are also on the ag...

The name of the rose

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 May 2026

We recently published a report in which we argued that inertia in inflation expectations results, at least in part, from the Central Bank's own policy stance. By adopting a strategy that favors the slow convergence of inflation to the target, that is, over a period longer than the so-called "rele...

The Bank of Israel cuts interest rate by 25 basis points, maintains hawkish tone

ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 May 2026

The Bank of Israel yesterday lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, following previous rate cuts in December 2025 and January 2026. The move was widely expected by the markets and most forecasters. The chart shows the Bank of Israel’s policy rate, which was reduced in De...

Under pressure

TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2026 · 3 responses

With the stroke of a gavel, CHP was returned to former chairman Kemal Kilicdarolgu, triggering a bitter and legally murky leadership battle. The politics author nevertheless thinks court-deposed chairman Ozgur Ozel has the upper hand, and if he loses the legal battle for the soul of the party, re...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar steps in to mediate, UK-GCC FTA signed, Oman records small Q1 deficit

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 May 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump paused assault plans as Qatar and other Gulf states stepped in to mediate with Iran. * This came after Iran formally launched its “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to administer transits. * A drone launched from Iraq ...