RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 11 Jan 2019

Rosneft has signed a contract to transport oil by train to its Komsomolsk Refinery until June 2019. This is odd because Rosneft just spent USD 702 million on a pipeline. But Rosneft is unhappy with Transneft which has a monopoly on the pipeline. Transneft may be forced to cut its tariffs.

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Jan 2019

Dear All, I’ll be out of town for the weekend to launch my third book, thus skipping my weekly contribution to the knowledge pool of the world. I thought it would be appropriate to comment on municipal elections, the winning of which moved to the center of AKP policymaking and new threats by Fore...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 08 Jan 2019

The inflation outlook has become much more benign following price declines over the last two months. We now expect the headline rate to fall back within target (2-4%) this quarter, averaging 2.9% for the full year. The significant adjustment in our inflation forecast since December (3.9%) also co...

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 08 Jan 2019

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance informed that it has selected Guggenheim Securities to advise the government in the design of a potential tender for the sale of the shares of the Punta Catalina Thermoelectric Power Plant. The announcement shows that the intentions of the government are serious...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 07 Jan 2019

Executive Summary President Jair Bolsonaro holds the second cabinet meeting since his inauguration. Ministers will present measures that will be executed in January. Political negotiations continue ahead of the elections for the presidencies of the Lower House and the Senate. This week’s Talking ...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Jan 2019

The consensus projections are for modest acceleration of the cyclical recovery. The main impulse should come from fixed capital investment, and the strength of its propagation to boost consumption will depend crucially on improvement in the labor market, whose behavior will be continually monitor...

ISRAEL - Report 07 Jan 2019

Highlights: GDP growth reached 3.2% in 2018 (first CBS estimate). This is 0.5% below the BoI forecast from October 2018.Growth in 2018 was fairly balanced: 4.1% in PC, 4.0% in public consumption, 4.0% in exports and 2.7% in investments.Growth excluding taxes on imports reached 3.1%, following 3.9...

TURKEY - Report 06 Jan 2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWinning local elections has become the sole priority for AKP, around which all policy decisions, including those concerning foreign affairs shall revolve between now and March 31st. There are very few polls, but plenty of commentary from pollsters. Trying to correlate those as im...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 04 Jan 2019 1 response

The headline inflation rate fell sharply to 5.1 percent from 6.0 percent in November, with the price level falling for the second straight month. Similarly, core inflation eased to 4.7 percent in December from 5.1 percent in the previous month, indicating diminishing second round impacts.The lowe...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 04 Jan 2019

2018 ended with congress failing to pass the executive’s proposed 2019 national budget, the result of an apparent spat between the two co-equal branches of government. The disagreement started back in mid-2018 on the technical issue of the executive’s proposed “cash” vs. previous years’ “obligati...

HUNGARY - In Brief 03 Jan 2019

KSH reported the government sector balance, by ESA-2010, i.e. on accrual basis, at a deficit of 0.4% of GDP for the first three quarters of 2018. This was in fact almost the same number as the 0.6% of GDP actual recorded in January-September 2017. The message is that government finances have inde...

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 03 Jan 2019

Executive Summary Real GDP growth for 2018 should come in at 7%, the Central Bank reported, after expansions of 6.8% in October, 7.2% in November and 7.1% (estimated) in December. Growth was strong across sectors, with communications, construction, free zones and heath particularly robust. Accumu...

INDIA - In Brief 03 Jan 2019

As a service to our clients, we are reproducing this Op-Ed by Ila Patnaik, which appeared in ThePrint on December 29, 2018. From GST to RBI to NPAs, both institutions and governance had a turbulent ride. The year 2018 saw significant challenges for the Indian economy. Implementation of the GST, a...

TURKEY - In Brief 03 Jan 2019

Consumer prices dropped by 0.4% in December, broadly in line with consensus forecasts, ending the year at 20.3%, y/y, further down from 21.6% in November and a peak of 25.2% in October, which, incidentally, corresponds to the worst yearend performance since 2002, when we were in an entirely diffe...

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 02 Jan 2019

Local employment data is highly negative Summary Recent data on employment and investment in fixed assets suggests a modest stimulus will lead to improvements in China’s economy. However, a closer look at local polls, along with interviews of corporate managers, indicates that employment is much ...