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Senator Bezerra’s report on the PEC on Fuels was postponed yet again, Senator Rodrigues submitted the request to install the MEC CPI yesterday, and the CNI holds a debate with the presidential candidates
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Jun 2022
The PEC on Fuels will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment of ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. Despite successive postponem...

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Russia prevents unemployed pilots from emigrating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 28 Jun 2022
On June 28 Russian newspaper Kommersant said that five civil aviation industry sources had told them the new unofficial policy. In March 2022 airlines starting making pilots redundant because Russian airlines lost most of their international routes and a high majority of their passengers. Russian...

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COSTA RICA: Coping with the inflation challenge
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 28 Jun 2022
Costa Rica’s most important economic feature in the first two months of the new Rodrigo Chaves administration has been the challenge for Central Bank policies, due to mounting global inflation that has exceeded the upper bound of Bank targets, coupled with rising FX pressures. Although at first s...

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The Challenge of Guiding Inflation to The Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Jun 2022
The IPCA-15 for June, announced last week, increased the concern regarding unanchoring of expectations. All the core measures have continued to rise, and the annualized rates (quarterly and monthly) of the great majority of the disaggregated indexes are now higher than the cumulative rate over th...

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Senator Bezerra postponed the submission of his report on the PEC on Fuels to today, the governor of São Paulo will reduce the ICMS on fuel to 18%, and today Senator Rodrigues may submit his request to install the MEC CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 28 Jun 2022
The PEC on Fuels will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment for ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. The government is hoping to...

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Surprisingly big increase of the MNB base rate today
HUNGARY - In Brief 28 Jun 2022
The Monetary Council raised the MNB base rate by no less than 185bps, to 7.75% today. Simultaneously, the O/N and 1-week credit rate was raised 10.25%, meaning that the interest rate corridor, the floor of which is the base rate itself, was reduced to 250bps from the previous 300bps. All this was...

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Kazakhstan macro: The strong budgetary performance seen in 5M22 is likely to persist in 2022 as a whole
KAZAKHSTAN - Report 28 Jun 2022
Given that the Kazakh economy performed relatively well in 5M22 as industry, construction, transportation and storage sector, trade, and communications were up by 4.4%, 8.9%, 8.1%, 10.8%, and 7.2% y-o-y, respectively, the budget execution numbers looked encouraging as well. Note that there were s...

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Economics: Global context complicates the Mexican economic outlook
MEXICO - Report 28 Jun 2022
As the international economic scenario continues to deteriorate and multilateral institutions and analysts alike scale back their growth estimates, we need to assess the extent to which a weaker economic outlook abroad, especially in the United States, is likely to affect Mexico. More specificall...

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Qatar hosts US-Iran talks to try and break the nuclear deadlock
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 27 Jun 2022
The US and Iranian nuclear negotiators are arriving in Doha shortly for their first (indirect) talks since the JCPOA discussions in Vienna went on an extended pause in March. There have been rumors that Iran might be willing to postpone a removal of the IRGC's terrorism designation, the main outs...

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Bolsonaro Version 2.2 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Jun 2022
The focus in the Senate will be the vote on the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on Fuels, with the expansion of social benefits (Auxílio Brasil, a gas voucher and truck drivers' voucher). Caio Paes de Andrade may assume the presidency of Petrobras. The Futura/Banco Modal poll on the presi...

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Politics: High-profile killings spotlight Mexico’s worsening public security crisis
MEXICO - Report 27 Jun 2022
The country’s public security crisis is showing no signs of abating. The figures are alarming indeed, at around 3,000 murders, 1,500 missing persons and 80 femicides per month. Through the 41 months of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration, the number of intentional homicides rea...

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Preparing for Mexico?
VENEZUELA - Report 27 Jun 2022
Nicolás Maduro has made use of the pause in the Mexico talks to strengthen his international legitimacy by signaling his regime's adherence to the Russian sphere and welcoming authorizations granted by the U.S. government to Chevron and to ENI–Repsol. Chevron may now start talks with sanctioned V...

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Senator Bezerra will submit his report on the PEC on Fuels today, Senator Rodrigues may submit his request for a CPI on the Ministry of Education on Tuesday, and this is the last week of activity in the Judiciary
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Jun 2022
The PEC will include an increase in the Auxílio Brasil program payment from R$400 to R$600, as well as a truck drivers’ voucher, an increase in the gas voucher, different treatment for ethanol in relation to other fuels and a subsidy for public transportation. The government is hoping to complete...

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Markets remain unfazed by early elections
ISRAEL - Report 27 Jun 2022
* Markets appear unfazed by early elections; fiscal credibility is expected to be maintained. * Residential completions remain weak; low housing inventory supports further pressure on housing rental prices. * Economic indicators point to fairly stable growth and a tight labor market, sup...

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Forint weakness would justify raising the monthly base rate hike back to 100 bps tomorrow
HUNGARY - In Brief 27 Jun 2022
Just five days ago, we said in our monthly report that we expect the MNB to defend the EURHUF 400 line for a few weeks at least, to keep the pretty much unavoidable depreciation of the forint under control, with a view to moderating its pace. We also said we did not expect any increase in the pac...