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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 24
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - NAVIGATING AN OIL GLUT: FISCAL AND RATING RISKS FOR ...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
China’s rare-earth strategy may be a high-risk move
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Oct 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: - Beijing’s export controls on rare earths may be part of a very high-risk strategy to manage China’s position in the global trade conflict. Because deficit countries are usually in a much stronger position in a trade conflict over the medium term, ...
The government should submit two bills to increase revenue, urgent status was approved for the bill prohibiting airlines from charging for carry-on luggage, and Lula is expected to announce the next STF justice after his trip
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2025
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) said the government will send two new bills to Congress restoring key points from Provisional Measure (MP) 1,303/25, which was struck down by the Lower House. According to him, one bill will address spending cuts, while the other will cover taxation of fintec...
Slide presentation and webinar replay: Chile election briefing - Going into the first round
CHILE · Presentation · 22 Oct 2025
What is the current state of play ahead of Chile's first round of elections? Who is favored to advance and win the presidency? What trends will shape the likely composition of Congress? View the slide presentation or watch the replay from our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Chile Anal...
Refinery fire to affect inflation prospects, reduce potential for cutting the base rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response
New information regarding yesterday's fire at MOL's oil refinery suggests that the plant has temporarily lost about 40% of its productive capacity for a yet unknown period. Initial estimates for the time required to repair the damaged capacities range from a few weeks to several months. As we sai...
Fire at Hungary's only oil refinery, damage unknown yet, domestic supply of refined products remains safe
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2025
Last night, a serious fire broke out at Dunai Kőolajfinomító (DUFI), Hungary's only oil refinery. DUFI is owned by MOL Group, a publicly-traded company, in which the government owns a controlling stake. According to MOL, the fire affected the biggest one out of the refinery's three distillation u...
The "Bessent effect" is a game changer, but not for the reasons some people think
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Oct 2025
Economy Minister Luis Caputo has described recent U.S. financial assistance as a “game changer” for Argentina. That characterization is accurate — though not for the reasons many government supporters claim. The U.S. aid package does not provide a shortcut to peso stabilization or pave the way fo...
Congress ousts President Dina Boluarte; José Jerí is appointed as caretaker president; political uncertainty to drive economic slowdown in Q4; we revise our PEN/USD spot rate to project less PEN weakening
PERU · Report · 21 Oct 2025
In this report, we focus on the ouster of President Dina Boluarte; the appointment of José Jerí as caretaker president to serve out her term; the protests in response to these developments; and the likely economic and market consequences. First, we discuss politics: the drivers of congressiona...
Economic slowdown persists in 2025, but moderate expansion expected in 2026
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 21 Oct 2025
The Dominican economy again showed signs of weakening, growing just 1.5% y/y in August. Headline inflation remained at the lower end of the target range (at 3.76%), with core inflation at the upper end (at 4.35%). The DOP experienced high volatility in September, and y/y depreciation of 4.85%, wh...
Lula announced the new head of the General Secretariat of the Presidency, he also launched a new housing credit program for middle-class families, and the Senate will hold a public hearing on the income tax reform bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2025
President Lula announced yesterday the appointment of Congressman Guilherme Boulos (PSOL-SP) as the new head of the General Secretariat of the Presidency, replacing Márcio Macêdo. Yesterday, in another move that could boost his popularity and strengthen his path toward another presidential term, ...
The conundrum of the Constitutional Assembly
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2025
On November 16, Ecuadorians will return to the polls to decide on four questions proposed by President Noboa, of which the most important is the convocation of a Constitutional Assembly. The need to make changes to unviable articles of the current constitution, which was approved under the ant...
The struggle for control of the right and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025
At the end of the week, President Lula will travel to Indonesia and Malaysia. During this trip, he may have a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Expectations remain high regarding the appointment of a new Supreme Court justice. The government may announce fiscal measures to offset the expi...
Economics: Stagnant employment sets the stage for further weakening of private consumption in late 2025 and early 2026
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2025
The total employed population in Mexico shrank -0.3% yoy in August and on average for the first eight months of this year it remains flat, according to ENOE figures. This flatlining follows the trend of slowing job growth that began last year and is in line with the sputtering of the economy over...
Politics: Mexico’s foreign policy under Morena's governments
MEXICO · Report · 20 Oct 2025
Since the 1930s, Mexican foreign policy has been based in theory on the Estrada Doctrine as codified in two principles: non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and national self-determination. Independently of domestic policies and whichever president was in office, Mexico’s a...
At cross purposes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025
From the second quarter onward, signs of economic slowdown became increasingly evident. To ensure a consistent path toward inflation convergence at the target midpoint, it is crucial that this trend be maintained. However, the risks of interruption are far from negligible. The government has ...
Lula will travel to Indonesia and Malaysia this week, fiscal measures to offset the expiration of MP 1,303 are still being considered, and the Senate will hold two public hearings to discuss the income tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025
This week, President Lula will travel to Indonesia and Malaysia, where there is a possibility of a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. He departs on Thursday. Another important issue awaiting definition is the announcement of fiscal measures to offset the expiration of Provisional Measure (...