GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

High-frequency data show a slowdown in economic activity in the second quarter, although some sectors remain resilient. This outcome is consistent with the current scenario, which combines restrictive monetary policy with fiscal, parafiscal and credit stimuli moving in the opposite direction. Muc...

Why the presidential race remains open and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026

The party convention period, during which parties define their candidates and alliances, begins today, July 20. On Saturday, July 25, the Liberal Party (PL) will formally nominate Flávio Bolsonaro for president. The following day, July 26, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) will formally nominate ...

The party convention period begins today, the PL will officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro on Saturday (July 25), and the 25% U.S. tariff will take effect on Wednesday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026

Party conventions begin today, July 20, and will continue through August 5. During this period, political parties will meet to select their candidates and establish coalitions. On Saturday (July 25), the Liberal Party (PL) will officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro for president at its convention ...

Kazakhstan macro: The economy becomes more resilient to external shocks

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Jul 2026

The Ministry of Finance released budget execution statistics that looked fairly positive, although revenues likely fell short of government expectations. Kazakhstan faced some bad luck early in the year when the CPC oil terminal was damaged, hurting both economic growth and budget revenues in Jan...

Politics: The relationship between organized crime and politics in Mexico and Latin America — what is its magnitude and what does it imply?

MEXICO · Report · 20 Jul 2026

Mexican politics and organized crime are bound together not by a single, uniform relationship but by a layered continuum whose intensity varies sharply from one territory to another. At its most basic, criminal groups purchase the omission of police and officials through bribery; further along th...

Two inflation shocks, one policy challenge

PHILIPPINES · Report · 20 Jul 2026

The Philippines is facing two simultaneous inflation shocks: a larger-than-expected wage increase and renewed external pressures from volatile oil markets and a weaker peso. Together, these could delay the return of inflation to target, underscoring the importance of maintaining credible monetary...

No rest for the wary in the summer

TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2026

As summer heat fries brains and saps all physical energy, our valiant politicians are sweating hard to make use of the dormant summer months. During the week, three Turkish administration sources for the first time ever expressed determination to resolve the S-400 barrier to the lifting of CAA...

The constitutional amendment went through without legal problems

HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Jul 2026

Somewhat unexpectedly, President Sulyok signed the Constitution's 17th amendment last night, without turning to the Constitutional Court on the matter, to delay the amendment's taking effect. As a consequence: - His office term will end at midnight, today. Parliament's president, Ágnes Forsthoffe...

GULF WEEKLY: Conflict pushes oil back to $87, US eases chip exports to UAE, Qatar’s former Emir dies

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jul 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * US and Iranian strikes reached their most intense since April, and oil surged as high as $87. * Hormuz transits ground to a halt with the Iranian attacks (killing two Indians) and the US blockade. * Iran attacked Kuwait h...

A decisive point in the power play between Tisza and Fidesz

HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Jul 2026

The road back to democracy and to the political mainstream of Europe remains bumpy. But with an energetic push in the area of legislative reforms and in foreign diplomacy, Tisza appears to be making real progress in this direction, and with continued massive public support and strong internationa...

VP Alckmin calls U.S. tariffs unfair and unwarranted, tariffs will be a central topic in the upcoming presidential elections, and the party convention period begins Monday, July 20

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2026

“Unfair and unwarranted”. That is how Vice President Geraldo Alckmin described the U.S. government’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. According to the vice president, the administration is preparing a program to support the affected sectors. Alckmin also said the government c...

June CPI remains unchanged; annual inflation declines to 1.6%

ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jul 2026

Israel's June CPI was unchanged (0.0% m/m), in line with our forecast and slightly above the market consensus of a 0.1% decline. Annual inflation slowed to 1.6%, its lowest level in five years and well below the midpoint of the Bank of Israel's target range. The main downside came from seasonal f...

Essential CIS Politics: July 1-16, 2026

CIS POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2026

Key headlines: * Ukraine War update: Russian President Vladimir Putin declared full control of Luhansk Oblast and claimed major advances, although verified data showed Russia had gained about 2,000 square kilometers since January. Ukrainian drone strikes hit over 100 Russian vessels in the Se...

The U.S. decided to impose the 25% tariff on Brazilian exports, Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy faces several setbacks, and Justice Dino demanded that all political parties report on their congressional funds

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2026

As expected, the United States confirmed a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. The measure has quickly become politicized, and President Lula is expected to use it as a campaign issue by placing responsibility on Flávio Bolsonaro. Another setback for Flávio Bolsonaro came from the latest Genial/Quae...

The first trade deficit in years

INDONESIA · Report · 16 Jul 2026

Indonesia's economy during June and the first part of July 2026 was marked by the announcement of the country's first trade deficit (for May) in years and a weakening exchange rate. The trade deficit was mostly due to a decline in exports, while imports also fell M/M, but at a slower rate. Me...