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Russia's Central Bank urges an end to price controls
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Apr 2021
On April 7 the bank chief said that government caps on comestible prices have a delterious effect on the economy. The price limits were introduced in 2020. Market distortion has resulted. Opinion polls show that the Russian Number 1 concern is the cost of living. The government will be loath to r...

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Zoom forbids sales to Russian State
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Apr 2021
On April 7 Kommersant reported that the video conferencing platform banned its distributors from selling services to the Russian government and parastatal entities in Russia and some other former Soviet nations. Zoom's partner in Russia is RightConf. Sales licenses have been revoked from state ag...

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Russian currency sliding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 Apr 2021
On April 7 the RUB continued to lose value. It has lost 2% of its value since the beginning of the week and trades at 77.7 to the USD. That is its lowest since November 2020.The probable explanation for the RUB's fall is the heating up of the Ukrainian Conflict. This could lead to more Western sa...

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Inflation slows down in March
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 07 Apr 2021
The headline inflation rate eased from 4.7% in February to 4.5% in March, below the median analyst forecast of 4.8%. The disinflation mainly reflects a drop in food prices following normalizing fish and vegetable supplies as well as artificially steady meat prices with the two-month price freeze ...

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Turkmen currency falling drastically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 06 Apr 2021
On April 3 the Turkmen Manat (TMT) fell precipitously, losing 5% in one day. It is 40 to the USD on the black market. That is 50% lower than in January 2021. The TMT has slid since March 2020. Turkmenistan is heavily dependent on remittances from Turkmens who are guestworkers in other countries. ...

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Inflation peaked in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 06 Apr 2021
Rosstat reported that inflation in March reached 0.66% m-o-m, which is a deceleration compared to m-o-m in February. Even though y-o-y inflation reached 5.79% it is only slightly higher than y-o-y inflation in February. Overall, in the second half of March inflation w-o-w started to decelerate. I...

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Foreign share of Russia's debt is lowest since 2015
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 06 Apr 2021
Statistics published by the National Settlement Depository on April 6 showed that less than 30% of public debt is foreign owned. Foreign investors have sold their holdings of Russian public debt in 2021 because they fret that a tightening of sanctions might impact them. The reduction of foreigner...

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​Detention of retired admirals: A test for Erdogan’s intentions
TURKEY - In Brief 06 Apr 2021
104 retired admirals issued a declaration warning that abandoning the Montreux Maritime Treaty could irrevocably harm Turkey’s sovereignty. This is the angle and its connection to Canal Istanbul that the foreign press and experts continue to focus on. 10 of the admirals are detained, with four be...

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Russian oil production increased +1.5% m/m in March, gas production surged by 12% y/y
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 05 Apr 2021
CDU TEK published its preliminary production data for March. Oil & condensate production was restored by 0.15 mbd, to 10.25 mbd, after a decline in February 2021. Rosneft's results explain almost 2/3 of the monthly increase, but other majors have also shown positive dynamics. Growing external dem...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 Apr 2021
Unfortunately, the expected severe aggravation of the pandemic in Brazil has proved true. In one month, the seven-day moving average of daily Covid deaths tripled, from 1.2 thousand to 3.1 thousand, setting a new world record. Indeed, the country’s daily death toll has exceeded the sum of the nex...

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Twitter fined USD 117,000 by Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Apr 2021
On April 12 a court fined the social media giant for not taking down forbidden content. Cases against Facebook and YouTube are ongoing.In January 2021 these companies allowed posts to be published calling on people to demonstrate in favor of Navalny. Roskomnadzor accused those who posted these me...

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Changes in the Armed Forces and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 05 Apr 2021
The government initiates the new phase of emergency aid payments, which could have a positive impact on evaluations of the administration. On Wednesday, the Lower House may vote on the bill that allows private companies to purchase vaccines. The Federal Supreme Court decides on the Patent Law. On...

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Good news on Covid at last
HUNGARY - In Brief 05 Apr 2021
The lockdown measures introduced on March 8, combined with an accelerated pace of vaccination, finally appear to work. It took a week that the reinfection rate (the 7-day average of the ratio of daily new infections to the stock of active cases a week earlier) reached its peak at 7.43% on March 1...

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Turkey Covid Watch - April 5, 2021
TURKEY - Report 05 Apr 2021
• Cases rose exponentially through March and are now clearly exceeding their December peak. The situation in ICUs is close to critical in some cities, including in Istanbul. On the positive side, medical care capacity utilization as a whole is down, as new capacity has been added in the interim. ...

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​Lockdown watch (2)
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 05 Apr 2021
On Black Saturday, President Rodrigo Duterte extended the ECQ status of Metro Manila and surrounding provinces (“NCR+”) by another week to April 11. The decision was not unexpected considering experts’ prognoses that a one-week lockdown would not be enough to control the surge in covid19 infectio...