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Inflation in August declined by 0.3% m/m (4.6% y/y, down from 5.2% last month). Market expectations were in the -0.1% to -0.2% range (we were expecting -0.2%). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) remained stable at 4.7% y/y (and 4.4% excluding government price hikes). The ...

A tough week for President Bolsonaro, the STF votes to suspend the national nursing salary floor, and another presidential debate will be held on Saturday, September 24

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Sep 2022

There are at least two reasons why the week was not good for Bolsonaro. One is the verbal attack by São Paulo State Deputy Douglas Garcia on journalist Vera Magalhães. The second is the negative impact of the budget cut from the Popular Pharmacy program. Most ministers of the Supreme Federal Cour...

Cyclical peak of inflation may come in early 2023 - MNB's Mr. Virág spoke in the press

HUNGARY - In Brief 16 Sep 2022

In today's Magyar Nemzet, vice governor Virág said that Hungary is now close to the cyclical peak of inflation, but unlike a possible peaking in Q4 this year globally, Hungary may only see the peak reached in early 2023. In more detail, he said:

- A turnaround is seemingly in the ...

Putin meets Xi

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Sep 2022

On September 15 the Presidents met at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan. Putin thanked Xi for China's balanced stance on Ukraine. This was their first in person meeting since the war began.

Putin effusively backed China's position on Taiwan. Taiwan is par...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 16 Sep 2022

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

Sep 2

Sberbank: The bank has sold its subsidiary bank in Kazakhstan to the state-owned Baiterek

Sep 5

S&P: The agency has confirmed the sovereign ratings of Kazakhstan at inve...

Pro-Kremlin bloggers despondent about the war

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Sep 2022

Pro-Putin social media stars have castigated the underperformance of the Russia Military. Those who are ardently pro-war have been candid about Russia reverses since September 6.

Pro-war bloggers are active on Telegram. They have called for a declaration of war, the draft and the use o...

State Deputy Douglas Garcia verbally attacked journalist Vera Magalhães during a TV debate, Lula to participate in a political event in Minas Gerais, and the TCU determined that the BNDES must refund R$ 88 billion in public resources

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 15 Sep 2022

Vera Magalhães had already been subjected to a harsh response from Jair Bolsonaro during the presidential debate held by Band. State Deputy Douglas Garcia attended the debate at the invitation of Tarcísio de Freitas, candidate for governor. State deputies from the PT said they will submit an impe...

China and Russia hold naval exercises

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Sep 2022

On September 15 the neighbors held the exercises in the Pacific Ocean. They wish to challenge American hegemony. Destroyers carried out live fire exercises and helicopter deck flights.

The Russian Defense Ministry has been eager to publicize the exercises. It published videos. The comm...

Zelensky visits Izyum as Ukraine advances

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 15 Sep 2022

On September 15 the Ukrainian President visited the recently liberated city. Ukrainian Forces are pushing deeper into the Donbas. Western analysts think that this counter-offensive may soon run out of steam. Ukrainian supply lines are being stretched. Russian resistance is stiffening.

Economic growth decelerates in August, albeit unevenly across sectors

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Sep 2022

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP) grew by 3.7% in 8M22 (in 7M22 it was up by 4.0%). The Kazakh statistical agency doesn't publish m-o-m and even y-o-y monthly figures for some economic indicators so that only cumulative numbers, ...

Lula resumes the utilitarian voting approach, Bolsonaro appealed to women in his interview last night, and the TSE unanimously approved the implementation of one of the Armed Forces’ suggestions to increase electronic ballot box security

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Sep 2022

In a meeting on Tuesday Lula said, “There are candidates who have 1% and still believe they will win, so with my 46%, I have to believe that, within the next 20 days, it is possible to gain the remaining 5% of votes that we need to win the elections.” With an eye on the female electorate, Bolsona...

Pandemic statistics update - September 14, 2022

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 14 Sep 2022

Preliminary traffic and box office data suggests a slight improvement in conditions in China despite the continuing Covid lockdowns. After making strong gains for the early part of the summer, box office increases year on year dropped off in early September due to rising lockdowns. However, box ...

Further news on EU transfers

HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Sep 2022

The local press (Népszava) reported this morning, referring to unofficial sources in Brussels, that the EU Commission is preparing to decide this Sunday (September 18) if it proposes sanctions against Hungary, and on what conditions, because of rule-of-law concerns. This would be jus...

Halliburton out of Russia

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 14 Sep 2022

On September 8 the US oilfield services company said it was leaving Russia. It is one of the world's major oil product and service companies. Many consider it tardy in withdrawing from Russia.

Halliburton has sold its Russian operation to Russian-based managers who formerly worked for ...

Kilicdaroglu gets 2 assists on his way to presidency

TURKEY - In Brief 14 Sep 2022 1 response

Being busy with the quarterly, I failed to reflect two important controversies in the opposition camp, which received a torrent of negative commentary regarding the durability of the main opposition alliance, now dubbed the Table of Six (ToS) and whether pro-Kurdish Right Movement party HDP w...