Country Insights

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Financial stress – feedback loops
INDIA - Report 08 May 2019
Ordinarily, economic systems find equilibrium. There is a shock, the problem heals as gaps between supply and demand are closed, and the system finds a new equilibrium. However, when positive feedback loops are present, such benign outcomes may not arise. A system can rapidly move away from th...

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Analysts expect CPI-inflation yet higher in April
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 May 2019
The April CPI-inflation data is due at 9am BUD time tomorrow. Analysts polled by expect the headline rate at 4% yoy, rising further from the 3.7% yoy measured for March.We feel this forecast is a little bit exaggerated in the negative direction. We expect +4.5% mom for fuel prices, o...

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Morgan Stanley pulling out of Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 May 2019
Morgan Stanley has announced that it is withdrawing from Russia due to sanctions. It has been in Russia since 1994. Its banking, brokerage and depositary licenses will be handed over. These business units will then be liquidated. This will be completed in the first quarter of 2020. Morgan Stanley...

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De-dollarization in Russia is making little progress
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 07 May 2019
At the start of May the Bank of Russia published a report on the currencies used in international trade by Russia. It demonstrated that commerce between Russia and China is using EUR as well as USD and RMB. There was a 23.5% increase in the use of EUR to pay for Russian goods sold to China in the...

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April inflation lower at 3%
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 07 May 2019 1 response
Inflation continued to decelerate to 3% in April, slower than the 3.3% print in March 2018 and below the 3.1% expected by analysts. Although the headline rate fell, month-on-month inflation increased to 0.3% from nil in March, traced mainly to oil-related fuel and transport costs. In comparison, ...

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The BOP deteriorated in early 2019
HUNGARY - In Brief 07 May 2019
On April 30, the Monetary Council's communiqué specifically said on the balance of payments: 'In February 2019, the current account balance improved, to which both the stable services balance and the renewed rise of the goods balance contributed.'This, somewhat loosely worded, brief statement was...

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​Istanbul elections- Take 2
TURKEY - In Brief 07 May 2019 2 responses
High Election Council (HEC) annulled Istanbul mayoral vote by a 7-4 decision, opening the way for re-election on 23 June. Only mayor’s office will be on the ballot, with borough and Istanbul municipal assembly results now finally certified. Mayor-elect (CHP) Ekrem Imamoglu was “defrocked” at once...

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SA’s 2019 elections on May 8: Major political parties polished off their final rallies
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 06 May 2019
South Africa’s top three contending political parties, the African National Congress (ANC), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) held their final rallies over the past weekend, with the hope of securing more support so as to be crowned as the nation’s governing par...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 06 May 2019 1 response
Following years of fiscal irresponsibility, leading to stagnant economic growth, an adjustment of the public accounts is a necessary condition for the country’s social stability. Faced with the challenge of defending unpopular measures, Bolsonaro has failed and at the same time precociously fritt...

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Pension Reform progress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 May 2019
Governors will be in Brasilia this week discussing, among other points, the fate of the states and municipalities in the Pension Reform proposal. The special congressional committee charged with analyzing the proposal will begin to function this week. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank...

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Huawei rumored to be getting contract with Russian telecom firm
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 06 May 2019
Chinese technology giant Huawei might be awarded a contract worth USD 384 million. This would involve providing equipment for telecommunications firm MTS. MTS needs this contract because the Yarovaya Law requires telecoms companies to gather data. Surprisingly this news did not come at the Belt a...

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Economics: What to expect from Labor Reform
MEXICO - Report 06 May 2019
The Senate passed the administration’s labor reform proposal this past week, and the changes to the country’s labor laws and the conciliation and arbitration system are significant, but doubts abound as to whether efforts aimed at eliminating past forms of abuse of workers’ rights might open the ...

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Politics: AMLO’s poor legislative record
MEXICO - Report 06 May 2019
The recently concluded ordinary session of Congress, the first full one on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's watch, serves as a good barometer of the legislative effectiveness and political capacity of the new governing coalition. Given that the Morena-led coalition has effectively built a ...

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China’s risky insurance investments
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 06 May 2019
China’s insurance industry has significantly increased its asset base faster than general growth of the economy. However, this growth has come with a cost: an increase in risky investments, and a willingness to increase its investments to support the state goals of infrastructure investment and p...

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GDP growth expected to reach a robust 5% saar in Q1 2019
ISRAEL - Report 06 May 2019
Economic data released last week supports our assessment of robust growth in Q1 2019, likely to reach 5% saar. Exports of both merchandise and services were up sharply in Q1, employment growth was strong and new vehicle purchases surged before higher taxation. Robust growth strengthens our view t...