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Country Insights

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US-Turkey rift is an opportunity for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 05 Nov 2019
On November 5 Turkey and Russia announced that they were conducting more joint patrols in Syria. Their armies, usually cagey, were very keen to release images of the patrol. This comes after the US House of Representatives vote to recognize the Armenian Genocide.The Turks are irate that the Unite...

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South Africa finally making solid moves on ICT policy that will benefit the economy
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 05 Nov 2019
Despite having the most advanced economy in Africa, South Africa’s ICT (Information and Communications Technology) sector lags behind its peers globally, and a large part of this can be attributed to policy. Country comparisons reveal that South Africa’s fixed broadband internet speeds are relati...

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SAUDI: Aramco’s valuation and the IPO’s impact on bond issuance
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 05 Nov 2019
​Information is trickling out about the Aramco IPO. Given the years of preparation and then the latest delay in October, it’s somewhat surprising that more wasn’t announced last Sunday. Our report includes an overview of valuations (a massive range from $1.1-2.3trn), the likely impact of the IPO ...

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Governor Matolcsy on the euro
HUNGARY - In Brief 05 Nov 2019
MNB governor György Matolcsy, who has appeared as quite active in terms of public appearances on a wide range of subjects lately, made some interesting comments on the euro the other day. In an opinion published by the Financial Times, under the title: 'We need to admit the euro was a mistake', h...

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Polarization likely to remain intense and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Nov 2019
President Jair Bolsonaro will deliver a set of post-Pension Reform proposals to Congress. Pre-salt auctions take place on Wednesday. The Senate may vote on the Parallel Pension Reform proposal, which includes states and municipalities. On Thursday, the Federal Supreme Court resumes discussion on ...

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Russia will fail almost all development targets in 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 04 Nov 2019
On November 2 Russian economics journal RBK published an in-depth study of Russia's economic targets set in 2008 for achievement in 2020. The country is due to miss almost every target and in some respects be worse off than in 2008. Real disposable income was supposed to increase by 70% from 2012...

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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Nov 2019
Fortunately, the rising attacks on institutions made by the Bolsonaro clan has been receiving the appropriate response from society and many members of the other branches of government, indicating that the path of radicalization is not supported by the vast majority of the population. Contrary to...

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Politics: The generals appear to grow restless
MEXICO - Report 04 Nov 2019
It took almost two weeks for the government to make its best effort to date to explain what happened before, during and after the failed attempt in Culiacan on October 17 to capture a son of imprisoned drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. During that time officials had ham-fistedly tried to field...

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Economics: News is consistently negative
MEXICO - Report 04 Nov 2019
The economic news published in October pointed almost unrelentingly toward a further deterioration of the economy as activity in Mexico contracted 0.4% in August compared to the same month a year earlier, according to the Global Economic Activity Index or IGAE. Perhaps the only bright spot was t...

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Inflation’s post-Pastor trip almost done
TURKEY - In Brief 04 Nov 2019
Consumer prices rose by 2%, m/m, in October, which was in line with the consensus as well as our forecast. The 12-month CPI inflation hence eased further to 8.6%, from 9.3% in September. Producer prices (domestic) barely rose in the month (0.2%), which drove the 12-month rate down to 1.7% from 2....

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New Delhi blocks Beijing on RCEP
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 04 Nov 2019
​Special points to highlight in this issue: While India’s rejection of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement at the summit meeting in Bangkok seems to have come as a surprise, as the main trade deficit member in a world of weak demand it is hard to see how India woul...

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GDP growth expected to reach nearly 3% in Q319
ISRAEL - Report 04 Nov 2019
Recent economic indicators suggest that GDP growth remained fairly strong in Q319; we estimate close to 3% saar. GDP growth is being fueled by steady PC demand and positive net exports. Capital flows continue to support a strong shekel, with robust FDI and fairly neutral financial flows. In poli...

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Consumption Will Continue to Be the Engine for Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Nov 2019 3 responses
With the strong headwinds coming from the global economic slowdown, the total impossibility of any fiscal stimulus, and the still-repressed level of capital expenditures caused by the high uncertainty, household consumption is the only force that can boost recovery. Although fitfully, consumption...

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Shaky start to Russia's sovereign internet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 04 Nov 2019
On November 1 Russia's sovereign internet came into effect. Russia can now cut itself from the worldwide web. This sparked protests earlier this year. The government says the purpose of the new law is to prevent the dissemination of disinformation and to thwart hacker attacks. Russian internet pr...

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​Gulf weekly: Aramco is a go, central banks mirror Fed, PMs quit in Lebanon and Iraq
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Nov 2019
Economically the regional focus was on Saudi Arabia this week as Aramco formally announced its IPO, the annual Future Investment Initiative conference drew in executives and world leaders and new fiscal data was released. Meanwhile, political turmoil continued in the periphery, with protests brin...