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Continued bad news on inflation and the budget
HUNGARY - In Brief 10 May 2022
Yesterday, we had some good news on growth (industry, exports, retail sales) and some bad news on equilibrium (trade balance). This morning, further bad news is to be reported on equilibrium, obviously the problem area in these days.First, CPI-inflation was 1.6% mom, 9.5% yoy in April, the latter...

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Game over. Marcos Jr. wins.
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 10 May 2022
The unofficial, partial tally as of the afternoon of May 10 showed Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. garnering over 30 million votes, equivalent to an almost 60% share. His closest rival, Vice President Leni Robredo who received less than half his votes had said, in what sounded like a concession statement, ...

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Bahamas article 4 IMF review supports our view that Bahamas economic situation is better than the global markets seem to believe
JAMAICA AND THE BAHAMAS - In Brief 09 May 2022
I have been reviewing The Bahamas economic situation for a number of weeks. I hope to issue a full report soon but a review of the IMF article 4 report will now take priority. I am not going to go through every aspect now, but the bottom line is that the IMF report supports my view that The Baham...

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Projections for 2022: Stronger Growth and Higher Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 May 2022
It is part of economists’ fate to periodically adjust their projections. In 2022, the Brazilian economy should grow by around 1%, surpassing the previous estimate of 0.7% from the last Focus report (04/29/2022). However, considering that at the end of 2021, the country’s income per capita was mor...

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Politics: Despite it all, the labor situation is stable, as is the country’s long ossified union movement
MEXICO - Report 09 May 2022
López Obrador has gotten things right when it comes to labor policy. Even most of the government’s critics recognize this is the area in which the administration can claim its most notable achievements. A broad consensus holds that the new law on outsourcing, which was approved with the suppo...

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Fiscal surplus in April + institutional demand for FX continues
ISRAEL - In Brief 09 May 2022
Fiscal deficit down to 0.6% GDPThe Minister of Finance Liberman revealed yesterday that the fiscal numbers in April continue to surprise on the positive side, reflecting a fiscal surplus in the first four months of the year. The fiscal deficit in the last 12 months declined to 0.6% GDP (May 21 th...

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Spending ceiling under attack and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 09 May 2022
The Senate will focus on holding confirmation hearings for official appointments. A meeting of the National Congress is planned to analyze presidential vetoes. Four polls on the presidential elections will be published. In terms of the economy, the Central Bank publishes the minutes of the most r...

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United Kingdom imposes additional sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 09 May 2022
On May 8 London said there will be higher tariffs on GBP 1.4 billion worth of goods from Russia and on exports to Russia worth GBP 250 million.The UK Finance Minister said that the value of the products that will face these tariffs is GBP 4 billion. The UK is raising tariffs on platinum and palla...

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Relatively good news today: industry, exports, sanction talks in the EU
HUNGARY - In Brief 09 May 2022
The first data since the start of the war is coming out. Industrial output fell by a marginal 0.1% mom seasonally and day-adjusted in March, which implies 4.1% yoy growth on the same basis. This is quite good, compared to Germany's -3.9% mom, -3.5% yoy, given significant vertical integration betw...

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The rapporteur of the income tax bill will meet with the president of the Senate, Congress reviews sixteen presidential vetoes, and the federal police has scheduled various demonstrations for the coming weeks in favor of salary raises
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 09 May 2022
The income tax debate returned to the agenda due to the approval of the national nursing salary floor. The rapporteur of the income tax bill stated that he is in favor of reducing corporate taxes and the taxation of unearned profits and dividends. He would like to “downsize” the text that was app...

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Economics: Despite a lower deficit, public spending structure and fiscal rigidity complicate the outlook
MEXICO - Report 09 May 2022
Last week’s report on public finance for the first quarter of 2022 showed relatively favorable results from some revenue and spending components that allowed the total public deficit to fall a real 25% at the same time as the primary surplus widened a real 61.2%. The report revealed substantial r...

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Pandemic statistics update: policy panic
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 09 May 2022
China is struggling to come up with a reasonable policy to tackle the twin problems of Covid and a slowing economy. Reports suggest there is a serious policy conflict at the upper reaches of the State Council. This is likely to end badly rather than well. However, the PRC Standing Committee conti...

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The shekel weakens on market volatility
ISRAEL - Report 09 May 2022
* The shekel weakened last week on the back of the downward market correction. * We have revised our inflation forecast upwards, as we no longer expect shekel appreciation this year. * Growth indicators remain positive, the labor market continues to tighten and wage growth in the private ...

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Russia says 3.9 million went abroad in Q1 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 09 May 2022 1 response
The data comes from the Federal Security Service (FSB) and were published on May 6.The other former USSR countries saw an uptick of Russians arriving mostly for extended stays. People have left because they oppose the war, fear conscription, dislike the new atmosphere of stifling conformity and f...

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G7 will phase out Russian oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 08 May 2022
On May 8 the US announced the move. The G7 includes the US, the UK, France, Germany, Japan and Canada. President Zelensky was allowed to take part in the online G7 conference. The United States said the move is to punish Russia for the Ukraine War and make it harder for Moscow to fund its militar...