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The upcoming holidays will reduce legislative activity, the government is expected to submit the PEC on public security tomorrow, and the União Brasil will meet to decide on its new party leader
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2025

The holidays on Friday, April 18 (Good Friday), and Monday, April 21 (Tiradentes Day), will reduce legislative activity this week. Sessions in the Lower House will be held remotely. This week, the Executive Branch will submit the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on public security to the L...

Politics: Sheinbaum unveils a new and better defined Plan Mexico. But is it up to the challenges ahead?
MEXICO · Report · 14 Apr 2025

In response to the slowdown in Mexican economic growth coupled with the ups and downs of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, which have been an emotional roller coaster for business interests and society as a whole, President Claudia Sheinbaum has re-launched and strengthened Plan Mexico, her ambitiou...

Does weak business sentiment portend weak GDP for Q1 2025?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Apr 2025

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), in its latest monetary policy report, claimed that the Philippines’ economic growth could be just “near the lower bound” of the government’s growth target of 6-8% from 2025 through 2028. We would call this a demonstration of the BSP’s independence and auton...

March CPI in focus this week; 2025 inflation forecast revised lower amid oil price drop
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Israel marked the beginning of Passover this weekend, with 59 hostages still held in Gaza—24 of them presumed alive. Reports over the weekend suggested progress in hostage deal negotiations. On the Iranian front, following an initial round of indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, both...

Argentina's IMF-supported new measures look good on paper, but the devil is in the details
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025

On Friday, Argentina and the IMF released the full content of the economic program that will be implemented under the auspices of the $20 billion, four-year EFF Agreement that the Fund's board has just approved. For the details of the program, see https://www.imf.org/en/News/Ar... and https://www...

Noboa wins brilliantly
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025

A press release from Bloomberg one hour ago cites the exit poll from La Posta giving Noboa 51% and Gonzalez 48% as a possible outcome for today’s second round election. La Posta is not a well-credited news site and it has over and over again made evident its links with Correa and his party. As of...

S&P changed the outlook for its BBB- sovereign credit rating to Negative from Stable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025

This happened at this year's first pre-set review date for Hungary, as regards any of the top three rating agencies: At the same time, S&P affirmed its BBB- credit rating, but even so, the agency's decision pushed Hungary to the very brink of losing its investment grade credit rating. S&P lowered...

CBRT’s baptism by fire
TURKEY · Report · 13 Apr 2025

President Erdogan received a delegation from pro-Kurdish Party DEM after 13 years, where reportedly PKK’s disarmament process was discussed. A tad bit more speculatively, DEM Party also laid out its 13 demands to participate in a new constitution. PKK and Syrian Kurds could start disarming for re...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE-EU trade talks launched, UAE & KSA do US LNG deals, Oman bank merger proposed, Bahrain tourism surges
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Apr 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil touched a new four-year low, raising concerns about larger GCC deficits and financing needs. * US-Iran talks in Oman are scheduled tomorrow and may also be a factor weighing on the oil market. * Gulf equity markets de...

Logjam in Panama’s logistics sector: Hegseth’s visit, the Panama Ports audit, the Trans-Isthmian Railway purchase, and the new gas pipeline
PANAMA · Report · 11 Apr 2025

The visit of US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth to Panama, during which a memorandum of understanding and a joint declaration were signed, aims to strengthen security cooperation through joint exercises and a "cost-neutral" compensation mechanism for security services between the US and the Pa...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Industrial Production Shows Moderate Recovery but Remains Weak in Early 2025
MEXICO · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

In February 2025 (seasonally adjusted figures), industrial production expanded by 2.5% year-over-year and 0.4% compared to the previous month. This marked a recovery from January, when output had contracted sharply. However, due to the weak start to the year, the cumulative growth for the first t...

Rescue efforts conclude for victims of Jet Set tragedy
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

Yesterday, Dominican authorities included the rescue operations for the victims of the roof collapse at the Jet Set nightclub, an iconic entertainment venue in Santo Domingo. This tragedy, unrelated to any natural disaster,  ranks among the most devastating in the country’s history, with 221 conf...

Lula appointed a replacement for the Communications Ministry, the federal government enacted the Annual Budget Law, and the opposition gathered enough signatures to fast-track the amnesty bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2025

Yesterday, April 10, President Lula confirmed the appointment of Federal Deputy Pedro Lucas Fernandes (from Maranhão) to take over the Ministry of Communications, replacing Juscelino Filho. Yesterday the federal government enacted the 2025 Annual Budget Law (LOA). The budget was approved almost e...

Trzaskowski maintains a stable lead, but uncertainty is high. The prospects for institutional reforms and parliamentary elections.
POLAND · Report · 11 Apr 2025 · 1 response

This report addresses recent poll results, discussing the potential outcome of the elections' first and second rounds. We discuss the quality of the poll results based on recent results and historical outcomes, hidden supporters, and the role of the undecided. We also describe the impact of recen...

New MNB vice governor and Monetary Council member proposed by PM Orbán
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2025

Parliament's economic committee is scheduled to hear Mr. Zoltán Kurali (left on the picture below, standing next to governor Varga) on Tuesday next week. Mr. Kurali has been nominated by PM Orbán for the position of vice governor in the MNB. At present, the MNB has three vice governors: Barnabás ...

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