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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Beating inflation: Doing beyond the usual stuff
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024

During the weekend, the Philippines’ central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) announced that the December inflation rate could have tipped the scale at 2.3% -3.1%, well within the 2%-4% target. If inflation hits the mid-point of this forecast at 2.7%, the actual whole-year inflation ra...

The economy continued robust into year-end 2024
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2024 · 1 response

As the year 2024 comes to a close, the Indonesian economy has continued robust as reflected by a number of indicators. The most important indicator, Indonesia's GDP, reported annual growth of 5.03% for the first three quarters of 2024. Even though the rate of growth in the third quarter reached j...

Last (econ) words of 2024
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2024

With Atilla having finally released me from his “broom closet” (see CBRT Cuts By 250 Bps, December 26, 2024), I thought I should share a few thoughts on last week’s CBRT move and a few other matters, before we conclude the year.

The final chapter for Russian gas transit through Ukraine?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024

On January 1, 2025, the 5-year gas transit contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom is set to expire. Ukrainian authorities are resolute in their decision to end this unusual business arrangement with an aggressor actively seeking to destroy the country. Predictably, the move has sparked outrage fro...

As tourism slows, The Bahamas is rocked by a cocaine transshipment conspiracy, along with a surprisingly large increase in its fiscal deficit for the new financial year
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 27 Dec 2024

The Bahamas has been in political turmoil since the end of November, when US federal prosecutors alleged in a November 27 indictment that two high ranking members of the Royal Bahamas Police Force (RBPF) and one Bahamas military official formed a cocaine trafficking network, along with ten other ...

Kazakhstan macro: Fiscal Year 2025 may still be challenging despite the weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Dec 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently published budget execution statistics for various segments of the budgetary system, including extra-budgetary funds and the National Fund incorporated in the consolidated budget. The fiscal trends that we have regularly covered didn’t change much, apart f...

Industry keeps growing with no surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024

Rosstat recently reported that the Russian industrial output expanded by 4.3% y-o-y in 11M24, posting some y-o-y deceleration as in November alone, it grew by 3.7% y-o-y amid uneven last year’s base effects. Seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) industrial output increased in November by 0.7% m-o-m, w...

Korean or Finland scenario for Ukraine? No Gordian knot solution in sight.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024

Foreign Affairs recently published an excellent article titled 'A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine' by Samuel Charap. I would like to react to it. The comment by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that 'a ceasefire is a road to nowhere' aligns closely with the perspective Samuel Charap, a Distingu...

CBRT cuts by 250 basis points by Atilla Yesilada
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Dec 2024

‘Tis the season to be jolly, thus I locked Murat into our broom closet to promote my brand of CBRT watch, which is highly emotional and sensationalist, similar to gonzo journalism. CBRT MPC gave the nation a New Year’s gift by cutting rates by 250 basis points. It also narrowed the corridor betwe...

BI-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Dec 2024

Dec 11 National Welfare Fund: Samruk-Kazyna intends to postpone the IPO of the national gas company QazaqGaz (initially planned for 2025) to create more attractive conditions for investors. Agriculture production: The US Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for Kazakh wheat expor...

Financial stability report: signals of confidence amid war and uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Dec 2024

If you’re looking for a bit of optimism about Ukraine, you should take a look at the year-end Financial Stability Report released by the NBU yesterday. The monetary authorities are exuding optimism about the financial health of the banking system, reporting that the NBU’s Financial Stress Index h...

Economics: Balance of risks skewed to the upside
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024

The balance of economic risks for next year is skewed to the upside. Several of the risks anticipated in previous months have materialized. Among them are an institutional weakening, fiscal deterioration, lower business confidence to invest in Mexico, and threats to trade and the external economy...

Pension reform postponed, again… Martinelli loses in court, again… First Quantum seeks allies, again… Trump tries to influence Panama, again.
PANAMA · Report · 23 Dec 2024

Two tasks were pending for December 2024: (1) the Government's Economic Program (PEG), which we will analyze in detail in early January once it is officially published. It will form the basis for our projections for the next five years; and (2) the CSS reform, particularly the pension plan within...

Politics: As challenges grow and the economy weakens, Sheinbaum is at a crossroads
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2024

While Claudia Sheinbaum is basking in high approval ratings, signs point to potential problems ahead that could spell trouble. In her first 100 days in office, the new President has concentrated on getting legislative approval for AMLO’s constitutional amendments, chief among them the Judicial...

Guevara’s headaches
COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2024 · 1 response

The 2024 congressional sessions didn’t end well for the government. First and foremost, Congress sank the mini-tax reform, the Ley de Financiamiento. President Gustavo Petro reacted badly to this, announcing that “the budget crisis will not be paid for by the people,” and promising to: 1) explore...

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