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The economy is weak going into the Third Plenum
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Jul 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * The Third Plenum opened today and will go on through Wednesday. Today also saw the release of June and second quarter economic data. * Today’s data release (along with inflation and trade numbers at the end of last week) confirms trends that w...

Politics: Power grab by controversial PRI leader perceived as potential party death knell
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jul 2024

Last week PRI National President Alito Moreno of the PRI had more to say about the dwindling number of members of who continue to resist his control over the party. At a PRI leadership event from which dissidents were barred and where a unanimous show of hands waved through by-law changes to allo...

Tighter Than It Seems
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jul 2024

The labor market suggests that the economy is operating close to or, more likely, above its potential. At the same time, aggregate demand has reacted to the fiscal impulse, largely associated with income transfers, which, together with increasing labor income, maintain high consumption levels. Ad...

PM Orbán has raised the stakes again
HUNGARY · Forecast · 15 Jul 2024

In the following quarterly update of our macro forecast, a few important revisions are introduced, even though our view regarding the basic trends remains unchanged. First, the speed and intensity of the ongoing economic recovery appears to be contained by the current poor performance of the indu...

Core inflation accelerates on higher housing rental prices
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jul 2024

No inflation surprises this time June’s CPI print (0.1% m/m, 2.9% y/y) came in according to market expectations (and ours as well). There were no significant surprises, although we note the acceleration of housing rental prices (OER) to 2.6% y/y from 1.9% y/y last month. This follows a downward t...

Elections, oil pose large risks to forecast
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2024

We hold to our single scenario for our 2024―2025 forecast period, during which the goal of reducing inflation will remain a priority regardless of how elections turn out, and the exchange rate will serve as the nominal anchor for the government’s fight against inflation. We forecast an annual ...

EU stops funding Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jul 2024

On July 9 the European Union announced it had frozen Georgia's accession process. This is in response to the Foreign Agent Law. Georgia was rejected for EU candidate membership status in 2022. Nevertheless, Georgia was planning to apply again. Georgia was due to receive EUR 30 million for defense...

This is the last week of activity in Congress before the recess, negotiations on payroll tax relief continue in the Senate, and the House will hold three weeks of concentrated voting efforts before the municipal elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2024

This is the last week of legislative activity in Congress before the recess. Negotiations continue in the Federal Senate regarding compensatory measures for payroll tax relief for companies and municipalities. The rapporteur of the payroll tax relief bill, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), says there may be...

Cautious optimism regarding a cease-fire and Wiz sale strengthen the shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Jul 2024

1. The shekel appreciated sharply as cease-fire expectations have increased, and the sale of Wiz to Google for 23bn USD is also a macro story. 2. The BoI expects only one rate cut in the coming year, but much will depend on the geopolitical risk premium. 3. Fiscal revenues continue to excee...

Hurricane Beryl hits breadbasket parish of St. Elizabeth like an "atomic bomb"
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 15 Jul 2024

Just under two weeks ago, on Wednesday, July 3, Hurricane Beryl hit Jamaica with strong winds, rain and powerful waves as a Category 4 storm. Beryl had previously made history as the strongest hurricane ever recorded in July, before it was downgraded from Category 5 to Category 4. While the ca...

Shekel appreciated on possible cease-fire deal and sale of Wiz to Google
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jul 2024

Geopolitics: Cease-fire negotiations are underway as hostilities continue. On Saturday, Israel targeted Muhammed Deif, the Hamas military chief, regarded as number 2 in Hamas (after Sinwar). It is not clear how this assassination will affect negotiations. Meanwhile, missile attacks from the North...

When the rubber meets the road
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jul 2024

The politics section of this Weekly Tracker is rather brief and to a large extent repetitive, because the author managed to catch pneumonia for the third summer in a row. The bulk of it is a refresher on Erdogan’s candidacy status -- and how this relates to early elections. In a nutshell, the aut...

The Vice-President as "Designated Survivor"
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Jul 2024

As reported in the broadsheets recently, the popularity and approval ratings of Vice-President Sara Duterte, one of the frontrunners to the Philippine presidency in 2028, are being pulled down by no less than his namesakes. The reason, as pointed out by a political commentator, is the shared bran...

F16s for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2024

On July 10 NATO announced that it had commenced the transfer of fighter jets. Ukrainian pilots have been training on them for a year. F16s will be a major boost to the Ukrainian Air Force. On July 5 Russia claimed to have destroyed several Ukrainian jets on the ground. NATO released a strongly wo...

Russian macro: economic trends unchanged, pointing to decent GDP growth in 2024
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jul 2024

In the past seven days or so Rosstat, Minfin, and the CBR published their regular monthly statistics, allowing us a fresh look at the Russian economy in general. The main conclusion is that the trends that emerged earlier this year have not been broken, and most segments of the economy continued ...

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