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A favorable moment for Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

A busy week in Brasília. High expectations surround the meeting between Lula and Donald Trump. In the Lower House, the Income Tax bill and Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,303/25, addressing taxation on betting and financial investments, may advance. The opposition continues to push the Amnesty Bil...

Politics: Sheinbaum’s first year in office: a balance sheet of achievements and contradictions
MEXICO · Report · 29 Sep 2025

On October 1, Claudia Sheinbaum will have been in office for the first 12 months of her six-year presidency. President Sheinbaum is riding high, with opinion polls putting her approval ratings at between 60% and 80%. The achievements on some fronts have been real: a reduction in poverty and a ...

Mind the gap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

The Central Bank maintained its inflation projection for the relevant horizon, despite exchange rate appreciation and the slowdown in economic activity. One factor behind this decision was the upward revision of output gap estimates, reflecting the stronger-than-expected labor market dynamics. Th...

Will Beijing bail out the property market?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Sep 2025

“China’s regulatory rescue efforts are sometimes cautious, like giving a band-aid after a knife wound,” said Huan Li, co-founder of Forest Capital Hong Kong Ltd., a hedge fund with $200 million under management. “They don’t act until the worst moment, but when that comes, it may be too late.” Blo...

KUWAIT markets its first dollar bonds since 2017
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Sep 2025

As Kuwait sells its first Eurobonds since 2017, we review its prospectus and recent fiscal trends. The prospectus, unfortunately, has no new data and does not provide clarification on key topics such as the size of the General Reserve Fund. However, investors may not worry too much about the lack...

Lula is expected to hold a virtual meeting with Trump this week, the House may vote on the income tax exemption bill, and the Joint Committee on MP 1,303/25 may vote on the Congressman Carlos Zarattini’s report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

President Lula (PT) is expected to hold a virtual meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. They will likely discuss the steep tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazil, as well as sanctions targeting Brazilian officials. The Lower House may vote on Wednesday, October 1, on the bill granting...

Rate decision preview: Bank of Israel to hold rates; updated macro forecast in focus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Sep 2025

Most forecasters (including us) expect no change in the policy rate on Monday. Why do we believe the Bank of Israel will keep rates unchanged? August’s CPI, published on September 16, surprised to the upside with a 0.7% monthly increase. While annual inflation declined to 2.9%, back within the Ba...

Public Budget Bill for 2026 envisions a deficit of 3.2% of GDP
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 Sep 2025

The bill projects revenues of RD$1,342,258.2 million (15.5% of GDP), while total expenditures amount to RD$1,622,833.4 million (18.7% of GDP). The budgeted deficit is RD$280,575.2 million (3.2% of GDP). This deficit is higher than the 3.2% of GDP set in the original 2025 budget but lower than the...

Tales on a summit
TURKEY · Report · 28 Sep 2025

Amidst much hype and misinformation, Messrs. Erdogan and Trump finally met. The summit was significant, because the respective teams spent 2 hours and 20 minutes behind closed doors. The politics author concludes in his single essay for the week that the outcome was largely favorable, although co...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi bonds, Riyadh rents frozen, Qatar & Oman GDP, UK & France recognize Palestine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Sep 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Brent rebounded to $70 on concerns about Russian exports, amidst Ukrainian drone strikes. *Gulf leaders addressed the UN and discussed a new US Gaza plan with Trump. *Ten more countries, including the UK and France, recogn...

Tarcísio said he will run for re-election as Governor of São Paulo, Justice Fachin will replace Justice Barroso as the new Chief Justice of the STF, and the House may vote on the income tax exemption bill next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2025

In recent days, conflicting reports have circulated regarding the political future of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos–SP) in 2026. Just yesterday, however, Tarcísio reaffirmed that he will seek re-election in 2026. During an official event, he denied having received Bolsonaro’s blessin...

Webinar replay and slide presentation: Can Mexico maintain macroeconomic stability in 2026?
MEXICO · Presentation · 26 Sep 2025

How realistic is the government's fiscal plan for next year? Will Pemex no longer be a burden for the federal government with its new strategic plan? Could the Banxico dove turn into a hawk? Can free trade and investment between Mexico and the US flourish once the new tariff policy is completed? ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currency appreciation has come to an end
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Sep 2025

In mid-June I asked how long the CCA currency strength (vs the US$) would continue. My key thesis was that, beyond the myriad relevant macro stats, this would critically depend on the RUB. In short, I argued that the ongoing strengthening of local currencies vs the US$ would only have legs until ...

Mixed results in GDP growth and IMAE. The ACP and Mulino could learn how to generate a positive climate for the new Canal projects from the previous Canal expansion.
PANAMA · Report · 26 Sep 2025

Panama’s economy slowed in Q2 2025, with GDP growth decelerating to 3.4% year on year from 5.2% in Q1. The main drag on growth came from the transportation sector, particularly the Panama Canal, where growth dropped sharply as the inter-annual boost from improved water levels faded and the ongoin...

New inflation report does not point to a lower MNB base rate in the foreseeable future
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2025

The monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council was held three days ago, and the Q3 inflation report was published yesterday. At the meeting, no rate or other policy action was taken, and the existing "careful and patien" policy approach, together with the Council's hawkish forward guida...

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