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2026 National Budget: the challenges of governance and fiscal consolidation
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Oct 2025

The Philippines' 2026 P6.8-trillion national budget reflects the government’s effort to sustain social spending but exposes persistent weaknesses in fiscal governance. Despite reallocations from flood control to education, health, and food security, unprogrammed appropriations worth P250 billion...

Industry posts increasingly unimpressive performance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

Rosstat reported that industrial output grew by 0.7% y-o-y in 9M25. In 3Q25 and September alone, it increased by 0.5% and 0.3% y-o-y, respectively. However, seasonally adjusted figures show the industry contracted by 1.0% m-o-m last month. The mining sector seems to be stabilizing, though still i...

Unmasking corruption and irregularities in public works: disasters, governance and growth
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Oct 2025

The Philippines again tops the 2025 World Risk Index as the world’s most disaster-prone nation—an outcome shaped as much by geography as by weak governance. Typhoons, floods, and earthquakes expose not only natural hazards but also institutional failures: substandard infrastructure, unfinished pr...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

Despite considerable geopolitical turbulence, the FX market remains surprisingly calm, showing only moderate ruble volatility. The money market situation, however, appears mixed. RUONIA is trading well below the key rate (16.4% vs 17%), yet banks’ net liquidity position with the CBR hovers near z...

Dominican Republic issues USD 1.6 bn 10-year bond at 5.875%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Oct 2025

With today's issuance of a USD 1.6 billion sovereign bond, the Dominican Government covers its financing needs for 2025. The bond carries a 10-year maturity and an annual interest rate of 5.875%. Investor demand for the placement reached USD 5.0 billion. The Ministry of Economy and Finance stated...

China’s rare-earth strategy may be a high-risk move
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Oct 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Beijing’s export controls on rare earths may be part of a very high-risk strategy to manage China’s position in the global trade conflict. Because deficit countries are usually in a much stronger position in a trade conflict over the medium term, ...

The government should submit two bills to increase revenue, urgent status was approved for the bill prohibiting airlines from charging for carry-on luggage, and Lula is expected to announce the next STF justice after his trip
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2025

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) said the government will send two new bills to Congress restoring key points from Provisional Measure (MP) 1,303/25, which was struck down by the Lower House. According to him, one bill will address spending cuts, while the other will cover taxation of fintec...

Slide presentation and webinar replay: Chile election briefing - Going into the first round
CHILE · Presentation · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response

What is the current state of play ahead of Chile's first round of elections? Who is favored to advance and win the presidency? What trends will shape the likely composition of Congress? View the slide presentation or watch the replay from our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Chile Anal...

Refinery fire to affect inflation prospects, reduce potential for cutting the base rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response

New information regarding yesterday's fire at MOL's oil refinery suggests that the plant has temporarily lost about 40% of its productive capacity for a yet unknown period. Initial estimates for the time required to repair the damaged capacities range from a few weeks to several months. As we sai...

Fire at Hungary's only oil refinery, damage unknown yet, domestic supply of refined products remains safe
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2025

Last night, a serious fire broke out at Dunai Kőolajfinomító (DUFI), Hungary's only oil refinery. DUFI is owned by MOL Group, a publicly-traded company, in which the government owns a controlling stake. According to MOL, the fire affected the biggest one out of the refinery's three distillation u...

The "Bessent effect" is a game changer, but not for the reasons some people think
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Oct 2025

Economy Minister Luis Caputo has described recent U.S. financial assistance as a “game changer” for Argentina. That characterization is accurate — though not for the reasons many government supporters claim. The U.S. aid package does not provide a shortcut to peso stabilization or pave the way fo...

Congress ousts President Dina Boluarte; José Jerí is appointed as caretaker president; political uncertainty to drive economic slowdown in Q4; we revise our PEN/USD spot rate to project less PEN weakening
PERU · Report · 21 Oct 2025

In this report, we focus on the ouster of President Dina Boluarte; the appointment of José Jerí as caretaker president to serve out her term; the protests in response to these developments; and the likely economic and market consequences. First, we discuss politics: the drivers of congressiona...

Economic slowdown persists in 2025, but moderate expansion expected in 2026
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 21 Oct 2025

The Dominican economy again showed signs of weakening, growing just 1.5% y/y in August. Headline inflation remained at the lower end of the target range (at 3.76%), with core inflation at the upper end (at 4.35%). The DOP experienced high volatility in September, and y/y depreciation of 4.85%, wh...

Lula announced the new head of the General Secretariat of the Presidency, he also launched a new housing credit program for middle-class families, and the Senate will hold a public hearing on the income tax reform bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2025

President Lula announced yesterday the appointment of Congressman Guilherme Boulos (PSOL-SP) as the new head of the General Secretariat of the Presidency, replacing Márcio Macêdo. Yesterday, in another move that could boost his popularity and strengthen his path toward another presidential term, ...

The conundrum of the Constitutional Assembly
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2025

On November 16, Ecuadorians will return to the polls to decide on four questions proposed by President Noboa, of which the most important is the convocation of a Constitutional Assembly. The need to make changes to unviable articles of the current constitution, which was approved under the ant...

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