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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A temporary truce in the fund transfer crisis and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

The House may conclude the vote on the second Tax Reform regulation bill (regarding the Management Committee). The payroll tax relief bill should be submitted to the House. The government submits the 2025 Federal Budget to Congress, proposing an increase in the CSLL and JCP. On August 30, the fre...

Did the Bank of Jamaica wait too long to cut interest rates? Finance Minister Nigel Clarke moves to IMF at the end of October. Was he the best Finance Minister in the Western Hemisphere?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

At its monetary policy committee (MPC) meetings on the 16th and 19th of August, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) unanimously agreed to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, effective Wednesday, August 21, 2024. This was the first cut since it began its tightening cycle in 2022, when it rai...

Politics: Private sector, foreign governments raise concerns of an authoritarian regression from "Plan C" constitutional reforms
MEXICO · Report · 26 Aug 2024

Financial markets reacted negatively to the incumbent coalition’s sweeping election victory June 2, but thanks in part to Claudia Sheinbaum's moving quickly to reassure investors, the turbulence subsided. Even as opinion writers and analysts engaged in considerable debate over whether the electio...

An Unpleasant Regression
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

We have long warned about economic activity exceeding its potential, as evident when we look at the unemployment rate, which is at its lowest level in nearly ten years. Here, we complement this by analyzing the behavior of capacity utilization (NUCI), suggesting that pressure on production also a...

The government will submit the 2025 budget proposal this week, the House will continue voting on the second tax reform regulation bill this week, and electoral campaigns can begin on TV and radio this Friday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2024

This week, the government will send the 2025 budget proposal to Congress. The rapporteur will be Senator Angelo Coronel (PSD-BA). Before being put to a vote in the plenary of Congress, the text will be debated in the Joint Budget Committee. The House will continue this week with the voting on the...

No cut in sight with risks still elevated
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Aug 2024

1. Renewed optimism regarding a possible ceasefire and Israel’s successful operation in Lebanon supported markets yesterday. 2. The labor market continues to tighten, supportive of wage/inflationary pressure. 3. We expect a more hawkish tone (as well as a rate-hold decision) this week, stre...

Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) remittances: a continuing mitigant in the Philippine economy
PHILIPPINES · Report · 26 Aug 2024

It should be obvious by now that there is no territory in the world where there is no Filipino worker. Globalization has made the world a smaller place to live and work. This is also true for Filipino workers who go abroad on contract or as migrant workers. Diversified across the globe, OFW remit...

Mulino faces five challenges over the next eighteen months. Chapman taps the local market. The principle of specialty that Martinelli is pursuing may be a formidable obstacle to the path of reforms
PANAMA · Report · 26 Aug 2024 · 1 response

The Mulino administration has inherited five critical challenges that impact the future of the country's public finances and the economy as whole: 1) the revision of the sub-system of defined benefits of the state pension program; 2) a tax reform; 3) the decision about the copper mining project, ...

No rate cuts in sight as inflation risks remain elevated
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Aug 2024

Geopolitics: There is a renewed optimism in the negotiations regarding a ceasefire/hostage deal, with Hamas sending representatives to Cairo. Following Israel’s pre-emptive strike on some 100 missile launchers in Lebanon poised to fire missiles towards the center of Israel, there is general satis...

Once more on the Lukoil sanction case: much ado about nothing (or very little at most)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2024

The first news on the Ukrainian government sanctioning Lukoil's transit shipments of Russian crude oil and oil products to Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, through the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline that crosses the territory of Ukraine, around mid-July sounded quite dramatic. Then a serie...

Kazakhstan macro: GDP growth gradually decelerates, dragged by delayed budgetary spending, strong tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Aug 2024

In recent publications, the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan has provided additional color on the country’s macroeconomic performance of the past few months. According to the Bureau, the nation’s GDP grew by 3.2% y-o-y in 1H24, which looked unimpressive compared to last year’s 5.1% gro...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF returns rise, Oman achieves H1 fiscal surplus, Gaza ceasefire talks drag on, planned Ukraine-Russia talks in Doha fall through
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * PIF’s annualized returns since 2017 rose to 8.7%, and its Giga-Project assets doubled in 2023. * Gender equality in the Saudi labor force is improving but still lags on salaries and managerial roles. * The number of new R...

Haddad announced that the government plans to submit an income tax reform proposal, the House will resume voting on the second Tax Reform bill, and election ads can be aired on TV and radio starting today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2024

Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced that the government plans to submit a proposal for income tax reform to the National Congress within the next 60 days. The bill is expected to include the creation of new tax brackets and the introduction of taxes on profits and dividends, amo...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan gets a well-warranted rating upgrade
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Aug 2024

S&P has upgraded Tajikistan to B from B- citing robust GDP growth, improved external position and moderate public debt levels. We think the upgrade is well deserved. Twice in the last year we have posited that perceptions about Tajikistan’s ability to meet external obligations have been unduly pl...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Aug 2024

Aug 7 President: Mr. Tokayev approved the national development plan until 2029. According to the document, Kazakhstan's GDP in 2029 should reach $450 bln (vs $225 bln in 2023). GDP per capita in 2029 is targeted at $21,1K (in 2023 - $13,3K). The share of expenditures on food products as a percent...

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