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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Anti-graft System’s First Steps
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2015

Executive Summary On February 26, the Chamber of Deputies approved by an overwhelming majority constitutional amendments proposed by the National Action Party for achieving a more effective anti-corruption system. If adopted in its present form, the reform would mark a major step in the right dir...

Economics: Oil Steady, but not Public Finance
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2015

Executive Summary A core issue for defining Mexican public finance, especially as it affects the implementation of the 2015 federal spending budget and the design of the budget for 2016, as well as the country’s trade balance for both this year and next is the extent to which international oil ma...

Beware of Headwinds Ahead
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Economic activity firmed further through 2014, the latest data reveals, though some sectors suffered setbacks, and all analysts have lowered their growth forecasts for 2015. GDP rose 2.6% in Q4 2014, driven by growth in all three major sectors, and despite weakness in extractive...

Politics: Crime Data Look Good but Don’t Add Up
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Executive Summary The trend of recent years toward a reduction in the rate of intentional homicide in Mexico extended through 2014, according to the report the National Public Security System (SNSP) released last week. However, the information should be regarded as preliminary because Mexico’s Na...

Economics: GDP: 2014 and Beyond
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Mexico’s National Statistics Office (Inegi) reported that Gross Domestic Product increased 2.6% in the last quarter of 2014 compared to the same quarter a year earlier and 0.7% compared to the third quarter of 2014. For full-year 2014 GDP grew 2.1%; these are the same results th...

Politics: Corruption Scandals Piling Up
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Graft in Mexico’s political system was once again the subject of front page headlines in the international news media last week as an extensive investigative report in The New York Times revealed questionable real estate dealings in the United States by a career politician and f...

Economics: Cuts Deep in Case of Infrastructure
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2015

Executive Summary In addition to the structural reforms directly related to the economy, one of the current presidential administration’s major objectives is a program for developing infrastructure on an unprecedented scale, which in turn is intended to serve as a catalyst of broader economic gro...

Economics: Public Finance in the Wake of Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2015

Executive Summary During the last week of January the authorities released public finance data as of December 2014. Tax revenues remained strong and there was no major expansion of public spending, so the public deficit came in below what the Ministry of Finance had anticipated in the general eco...

Politics: Posing for the Elections
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2015

Executive Summary The Mexican Congress officially convened February 1 for a three-month regular session scheduled to conclude April 30, just over one month before federal elections in which every member of the Chamber of Deputies is to be replaced. With corruption and potential conflicts of inter...

Headwinds Kicking Up
MEXICO · Report · 04 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Mexico’s non-oil exports remained strong in 2014, according to the latest data, with private investment and consumption recovering faster, and public investment continuing to fall. In H2 the economy regained its “natural” growth rate, a trajectory it could sustain through 2015. ...

Economics: Weaker Economic Census Results
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The National Statistics Office (Inegi) recently released the preliminary version of the results from its 2014 Economic Census. The census, conducted in 2014, collected statistical data information on the activities of business establishments during 2013. The census, which is con...

Politics: Parties Fiddle as 2015 Campaign Looms
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2015

Executive Summary A major threat to the credibility of the June elections consists of the degree to which the parties act as if they are utterly oblivious to the extent to which they are held in disrepute and proceed as if all were business as usual, preoccupied by infighting and the seemingly et...

Economics: Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The international oil market has continued to experience an excess supply of crude, and except in the United States, weak demand through the first weeks of 2015. As a result, the prices of all varieties of crude have been plummeting. As we have mentioned in previous issues of We...

Politics: Rocky Start to 2015 Campaign
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Last week produced numerous reminders of the internal party divisions plaguing the opposition. The center-right PAN rebuffed the request of Margarita Zavala to run for Congress, prompting the wife of ex Mexican President Felipe Calderón and former member of Congress to announce ...

Third Quarter Aggregate Demand
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Aggregate supply and demand data at the third quarter of 2014 describe a scenario in which Mexico’s non petroleum exports remain strong, private investment and consumption are recovering at a slightly more solid pace, and public spending remains stalled as continuing growth in p...

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