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Our election coverage kicks off
TURKEY · Report · 05 Nov 2023

In a development that may improve CHP’s chances of keeping big-city municipalities in the March 2024 local elections, delegates threw out incumbent Kemal Kilicdaroglu to crown “change” candidate Ozgur Ozel. The politics author thus initiates his local election coverage, tentatively concluding ...

Headline better than expected, thanks to softer food inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2023

Consumer prices rose by a slower than expected 3.4%, m/m, in October, compared with (including ours) forecasts of around 4%, with our forecast error largely stemming from lower food inflation. Annual CPI-inflation has thus remained broadly unchanged from a month ago, standing at 61.4%, slightly l...

2024 inflation forecast revised up slightly, band widened sharply
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2023 · 1 response

The CBRT has released the final Inflation Report of the year today, which was, as usual, accompanied by a speech and a presentation by Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan. The CBRT aligned the end-2023 forecast with the MTP, raising it to 65% up from 58% in the July report, and revised the end-2024 foreca...

A mid-week macro update
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 1 response

As we’ve noted in Sunday’s post, the econ author could not contribute his share to the Weekly report as he was in transit on Sunday – and hence, today’s post, which provides a quick rundown of recent macro developments, along with a few quick thoughts and impressions from his meetings while in Lo...

Turkey switches to inflation accounting in 2024, will all Hell break loose?
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2023

Turkish Ministry of Finance and Treasury issued a circular last week, informing all incorporated and limited liability firms that balance sheets must be adjusted according to inflation accounting rules for YE2023. In 2024, income statements, too, shall be revised in such a manner. The revised 202...

Middle East controls our destiny
TURKEY · Report · 29 Oct 2023

This politics-only Weekly is dedicated to understanding President Erdogan’s motives. By sending the legislation on the ratification of Swedish membership in NATO, he looked like a good team player. He also remained comparatively composed in the early days of the Israel-HAMAS war, only to blow off...

The MPC delivers the consensus again
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by another 500 bps today to 35%, in line with the consensus forecast. As for the content of the statement, the paragraph on inflation presents a mixed – and a broadly agreeable -- picture on the inflation outlook, with “the “pass-through from tax regulations...

Turkish parliament to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession, but why?
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2023

I’d given up on positive developments in Turkey’s relations with US and NATO, because on 21 October President Erdogan flatly refused to present the legislation needed to ratify Swedish accession, on account of American disrespect for his various requests, Quran burning incidents and the refusal b...

In the midst of fire
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2023

The politics author reports back to work after an unfortunate sports accident, claiming that although Turkey is in the middle of a circle of fire, not much harm will come out of it. Yet, Turkey’s brief flirtation with the US is over as the Grand Assembly is yet to debate Swedish accession and ...

Keep calm and carry on
TURKEY · Report · 15 Oct 2023 · 2 responses

Industrial production and retail sales were both weak in August, with the latter shrinking sharply, m/m, and the ongoing divergence between the two thus reversing somewhat. Whether this signals the beginning of a sharp downturn remains to be seen, however. The current account balance posted a ...

Confusion will be my epitaph
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2023 · 1 response

In this special report, we briefly review the latest macro developments and take a glance at the near-term issues and outlook in our favorite Q&A format. Growth likely stayed sequentially positive in Q3, and a sharp slowdown or contraction should be avoided in Q4, thanks to significant fiscal ...

Service inflation surges to 86.5%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2023

Consumer prices rose by 4.8%, m/m, in September, broadly in line with the consensus forecast, with 12-month CPI-inflation increasing further to 61.5% -- the highest level since the beginning of the year -- from 58.9% in August. Producer prices rose at a more moderate rate of 3.4% in the month, wi...

Cyclical respites, secular concerns
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2023

In this very brief econ-only Weekly, we take a quick look at last week’s data releases and review the latest deposit and reserve developments. The bottom line is that there is little sign of rebalancing in the economy according to data through August, as we see it, while reserves are being helped...

Missed opportunities, improved reserves
TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan’s New York tour was not a failure, but as the politics author sees it, he missed three huge chances to change the way Turkey and the President himself are perceived. In the immediate term, Swedish membership to NATO and its price of selling Turkey F-16s is becoming convoluted, b...

The CBRT delivers the expected, road ahead uncertain
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 500 bps to 30%, in line with the market consensus (see chart), which was also the most likely outcome, in our view. The paragraph on inflation is now amended to include the acknowledgement of worse than expected July-August prints,...

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