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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Zelensky claims Akhmetov involved in coup d’etat
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Nov 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gathered journalists for a press conference today. He was trying to address a series of scandals his administration has been suffering over the last several weeks, which involve the release of Bellingcat investigation on so-called Wagnergate (failed operation of Ukra...

The IMF approves a very special decision for Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Nov 2021

The IMF Executive Board finally approved second review of the ongoing SBA program for Ukraine and extended the current program until end-June 2022. The completion of the review gives the green light for a $699 million wire to Ukraine. The press-release from the IMF was concise. In essence, the re...

GDP growth misses expectations in Q3 with +2.4% y/y amid record-high grain harvest
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Nov 2021

The state statistics office reported 2.4% y/y GDP growth in Q3. The result is far below expectations. The NBU just a few weeks ago estimated a 4.0% y/y GDP increase for the third quarter. Poor industry performance (near-zero growth through the quarter), as well as sluggish agro production (+7.2% ...

Bloomberg reports potential Russian invasion in Ukraine: what’s going on?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Nov 2021

Bloomberg published an article “U.S. Warns Europe That Russia May Plan Ukraine Invasion”. The author uses really tough and even scary wording trying to give a message that “there’s no way of knowing Moscow’s true intentions” but the Kremlin is building military forces at the border of Ukraine and...

New cabinet reshuffle: when changes change nothing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Nov 2021

The media wrote that already this week new people will take seats in the Cabinet. This is nothing new. We heard about inevitable replacements in the Cabinet back in June. But it took some time for the ruling group to deliver this new reshuffle. As David Arakhamia, the Head of parliamentary factio...

Tentative IMF deal struck, as presidential popularity tumbles, and recovery wanes
UKRAINE · Report · 01 Nov 2021

Autumn is traditionally intense in Ukraine, and this year is no exception. A staff-level agreement with the IMF, the Pandora Papers, the replacement of the speaker, the president’s falling ratings, and a new, more virulent wave of COVID-19 are only the most important issues. Two long-awaited e...

The NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 8.5%, new increase likely in December
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2021

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 8.5%. The decision went in line with the consensus forecast. At its last communication in September the NBU made it clear that a further prime rate increase is highly undesirable. The market reflected this message at the consensus forecast despite th...

The IMF reports Staff-Level Agreement, conditionality is not clear
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Oct 2021

A month of online negotiations and the IMF mission finally gives an encouraging signal: a staff-level agreement and an extension of ongoing SBA Program till June 2022. However, the press-release mentions that only “Continued steadfast implementation of strong policies in these areas, consistent w...

Stormy start of October: Pandora Papers and the dismissal of the Parliament Speaker
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Oct 2021

The start of October appeared to be rather stormy for Ukrainian elites. The Pandora Papers as well as the removal of Parliament Speaker Dmytro Razumkov from his post have changed a lot on the Ukrainian political landscape. I do not expect immediate consequences from both events. However, in the m...

As Washington chides, economic recovery persists
UKRAINE · Report · 21 Sep 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to the United States was the most important event of recent weeks. Official Kyiv has been lobbying for so long to get face-to-face time with the White House that the very fact of the event was seen as a major success. The Ukrainian delegation reported many im...

Spending plan 2022
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2021

On September 15, MinFin submitted spending plan 2022 to the parliament, and yesterday it was finally released to the public. We saw nothing extraordinary in the proposed spending plan. However, there are several points we want to highlight for our readers. The proposed spending plan was developed...

The NBU increases prime rate by extra 0.5 ppt up to 8.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Sep 2021

The NBU Board increased the prime rate by an extra 0.5 ppt up to 8.5%. The decision was widely expected as the NBU itself mentioned a likely prime rate revision up to 8.5% if inflation trends remain strong. In the meantime, CPI was reported declining seasonally by 0.2% m/m in August amid eased fo...

Joint statement on strategic partnership sounds good
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Sep 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy finally met US president Joe Biden. Ukrainian authorities have been striving to get the meeting for so long that the very fact of the talk is being presented as a big success. The President's Office, predictably, broadcast multiple important agreements the Ukrainian ...

Growth robust for now, but tapering may hurt
UKRAINE · Report · 20 Aug 2021

H1 2021 was marked by poor economic performance, as industrial output stagnated along with contracting agro-production following poor harvests in 2020. GDP recovered in Q2 by a modest 5.4% y/y, after plunging 11.2% y/y a year ago. Yet there was a strong revival in private consumption, as retail t...

The IMF mission to arrive in September, Kristalina Georgieva says
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jul 2021

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had a phone call with Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva yesterday on July 28. Kristalina Georgieva recognized “sound economic progress made under the IMF program” and mentioned the IMF mission arriving in September. The President Office ment...

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