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Bolsonaro’s relations with Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2018 · 1 response

This is almost the last week of legislative activity in the Lower House before the congressional recess. There are a set of bills on the voting agenda which, if approved, could generate an impact of around R$ 47 billion over the next few years. Jair Bolsonaro will be cleared by the TSE on Monday,...

Bolsonaro’s cabinet and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Congress enters its last month of activity before the recess. Among the bills on the agenda are the budget, transfer of rights, real estate contracts and the positive registry. Meetings are scheduled between President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and party leaders. Bolsonaro is expected to conclude...

Risks for the next government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2018

Wednesday, November 28, is the deadline for President Temer to sanction or veto the salary increase for Supreme Court ministers. The fiscal impact in 2019 could reach R$ 4.1 billion. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) may conclude the selection of his cabinet team. On Friday, November 30, IBGE ...

Negotiations for the presidency of the Lower House and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2018

The election for the presidency of the Lower House is one of the main items on the agenda this week; Rodrigo Maia (DEM) meets with recently elected congressional representatives in Brasília. Labor unions will demonstrate against Pension Reform. In the Lower House and Senate, important votes are o...

Bolsonaro in Brasília again and to present elected governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2018 · 1 response

This will be an intense week in the Lower House and Senate, despite the Thursday (November 15) holiday. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) will travel to Brasília again, where he will meet with Minister Rosa Weber (TSE). Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes present elected governors with the new governme...

The perspectives for Pension Reform this year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2018

Jair Bolsonaro may announce the names of cabinet ministers, as well as details about the structure of each ministry (the number of cabinet ministries should be reduced to 15-17). The president-elect will meet with President Michel Temer in Brasília. Judge Sérgio Moro, the future Minister of Justi...

Sergio Moro in the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2018

It is clear that the appointment of Sergio Moro to the Ministry of Justice will have exceptionally positive repercussions among Jair Bolsonaro’s electorate and for his government as a whole. The appointment is positive because it creates expectations of a tough stance against systemic corruption ...

Brazil presidential election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Oct 2018 · 3 responses

Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) was elected President of the Republic with 55.13% of the valid votes and impeded the fifth consecutive victory of the PT. Bolsonaro had 10.26% percentage points more than in the first round. Fernando Haddad (PT) had 44.87% of valid votes. It is the worst performance of the Wo...

Despite a six-point drop, Bolsonaro remains the favorite
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2018

The new Datafolha poll on the presidential race shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) has dropped from 18 to 12 percentage points. The six-point reduction in Bolsonaro’s lead is still not a threat to his probability of winning, for the following reasons: 1) Because ...

Reduced lead does not alter Bolsonaro’s favoritism
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2018

The new Ibope poll on the runoff round of the presidential election shows that, considering valid votes, Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) decreased from 18 to 14 percentage points. The reduced lead over Haddad is a consequence of recent attacks on the PSL candidate. Asid...

Bolsonaro almost there and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2018

This is the final week of the campaign before the runoff round in the presidential election and 14 gubernatorial races. Candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is unlikely to participate in the debates scheduled for this week. Gubernatorial debates are also scheduled. Several electoral polls are scheduled...

Bolsonaro’s lead is practically irreversible; only a new fact could change the scenario
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2018

The new Datafolha poll on the second round of the presidential race shows that, considering only valid votes, Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) grew from 16 to 18 percentage points since last week.

Pessimistic about Pension Reform this year, Congress believes in governability with Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2018

​A poll conducted by Arko Advice with 164 federal representatives (October 9-11) shows that, regardless of who wins the elections, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) or Fernando Haddad (PT), the majority is pessimistic about approving Pension Reform this year.

Bolsonaro leads by more than 20 million votes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2018

A study conducted by Arko Advice based on the Ibope poll and taking into consideration intended votes for candidates by region shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) lead over Fernando Haddad (PT) totals around 22 million votes. This means that to take the lead, Haddad would have to win over approxima...

Ibope poll reinforces Bolsonaro’s advantage
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2018

The first Ibope poll for the second round of the presidential election shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has 59% of valid votes. Fernando Haddad (PT) has 41%. The 18-percentage point lead for Bolsonaro is higher than the 16-point lead registered by Datafolha last week. The poll reinforces Bolsonaro...

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