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Argentina databank May 3 -
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NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
GULF WEEKLY: UAE intercepts attacks and announces tax, Dubai Q3 GDP, Oman raising loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Feb 2022 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ stuck to its 400k b/d taper, and oil rose to a new post-2014 high of $93. * PMIs fell slightly in Saudi Arabia and UAE due to Omicron and inflation. * Saudi government deposits at SAMA fell sharply in December, may...
UAE: The new corporate income tax will have ripple effects across the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Feb 2022
* The 9% tax could raise as much as 1.6% of GDP in incremental revenue, similar to the VAT. * A higher rate of up to 15% is expected to be applied to large multinationals, but has not been specified yet. * The change is motivated more by compliance with BEPS than the need for fiscal revenue. *...
GULF WEEKLY: Fitch downgrades Kuwait, Adnoc bond pending, Houthis strike UAE again
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Jan 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil keeps climbing, but OPEC+ is not expected to accelerate its tapering plan next week. * Iran nuclear talks are looking more hopeful, including mediation by Qatar on a prisoner exchange. * The Saudi sovereign borrowing...
GULF WEEKLY: UAE shrugs off attack and signs swap with Turkey, Kuwait’s negative outlook maintained, Airbus spat with Qatar deepens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Jan 2022 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil hit a high since 2014 of nearly $90, and forecasters expect little impact from Omicron. * Saudi issued record investment licenses in Q4 but US firms are facing frustrations there. * South Korea’s president visited the...
Apparent Houthi attacks on Abu Dhabi highlights vulnerabilities to drones
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022
Preliminary indications suggest that fires in Abu Dhabi, which killed three people at a fuel depot and disrupted the airport, were caused by drones. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. The market impact so far has been relatively muted but could become more significant if ther...
GULF WEEKLY: GCC ministers visit China, pipeline consortium bond disappoints, Qatar Q3 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jan 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases rose by two-thirds to new records, although deaths remain low. * Oil rose to $85, close to its highest since 2014, despite a resolution to Libya’s production outage and hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks ...
GULF WEEKLY: Dubai & Oman budgets, Bahrain Q3 GDP, record Covid cases
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jan 2022
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Daily covid cases hit a new record in the GCC but so far there have been very few recent deaths. * OPEC+ stuck with its taper but unrest in Kazakhstan has pushed oil up to $82. * PMIs remained strong in Qatar and UAE but...
OMAN: 2022 budget looks promising, despite some slippage in consolidation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response
Oman’s budget was released on Sunday, building on headline numbers announced a few weeks ago, along with more details of the preliminary 2021 outturn. Broadly speaking, the 2021 results and the 2022 budget show the government’s continued seriousness about fiscal consolidation, even after the unex...
GULF WEEKLY: Covid and oil rebound, Kuwait forms government, Shell signs Oman gas deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Dec 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases have increased 10-fold in two weeks, particularly in the UAE, but deaths remain low. * Oil has rebounded to $79, partly due to supply problems, including in Libya (where elections were postponed). * There appe...
GULF WEEKLY: GCC summit, Saudi Q3 GDP, Israeli PM visits UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Dec 2021 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA have concluded Omicron won’t have much of an impact on oil demand. * The GCC summit was a fairly standard affair, with the most notable features being King Salman’s absence and a softer approach to Iran in th...
Saudi budgets for a rare surplus and Oman sees its deficit narrowing
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Dec 2021 · 2 responses
* The estimated 2021 Saudi deficit of -2.7% of GDP, the least since 2013, is larger than our forecast largely because of a sharp drop in revenue remitted from sovereign wealth funds. * The oil price assumption for 2022 has been hiked to about $65 (from $50 in the September pre-budget statement),...
GULF WEEKLY: UAE shifts its weekend, MBS completes his Gulf tour, Qatar releases budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Dec 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks today, although the US is upping the pressure. * MBS completed his tour of the Gulf in Kuwait today. The most visible immediate outcome of the tour were agreements signed...
SAUDI: MBS’s Gulf-wide tour signals renewed confidence at a time of major foreign policy shifts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Dec 2021
MBS arrived in Oman today on the first leg of a 5-country Gulf tour, his first significant foreign trip in two years. It comes ahead of Saudi Arabia's hosting of the annual Gulf summit and could result in progress in both GCC relations and also on wider regional issues such as Lebanon, Iran and T...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ sticks with taper, S&P stabilizes Bahrain, Macron sells jets to UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Dec 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ surprised markets by sticking with its taper but hinted that it could reconsider mid-month if needed. * Iran nuclear talks finally reconvened, just as Iran restarted enrichment at a controversial underground site. ...
Omicron and the Gulf: The hit to oil is fiscally manageable, as are health risks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Nov 2021
The emergence of yet another worrying Covid variant has raised concerns in the Gulf, as it has globally. No cases have been identified in the region yet, but its international connectivity, including as a hub for travel from Africa, does present vulnerabilities, as has been the case for previous ...