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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Kazakhstan macro: long-awaited tenge depreciation to boost budget revenues in 2024
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Sep 2023

The Kazakh Finance Ministry recently published regular monthly budgetary statistics for August, including the cash flow data of the National Fund, the execution of the republican and aggregate local budgets, and the consolidated budget. Statistics on the National Fund’s revenue flow reveals that ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Sep 2023

Sep 8 Government: China's Sinopec is interested in participating in new oil and gas projects in Kazakhstan KTZ: Kazakhstan and China intend to increase cargo transportation by rail by 15.5% in 2023, and in 2024 - by another 4% S&P: Kazakhstan lagged behind the OPEC+ quota by 100K b/d in Aug (1.45...

Kazakh economy continued to expand in August
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term economic indicator (an aggregate measure of economic activity in six main sectors of the country’s economy) grew by 5.3% y-o-y in 8M23. This rate was the same as in 7M23 implying that in August alone the economy reproduced more or les...

Kazakhstan macro government outlook: strong economic growth amid a favorable external environment and real tenge appreciation in 2024-2028
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Sep 2023

The Kazakh government recently released its medium-term economic forecast and budgetary plan for 2024-2028. The government also confirmed that it has turned much more optimistic about economic growth this year than earlier. It now expects GDP to grow by 4.6%-4.7% this year and 5.3% next year, fol...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Sep 2023

Aug 25 NBK: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank has decided to lower the base rate by 25 bps to 16.5% with a corridor of plus or minus 1 pp NBK: The Bank has raised the forecast of the country's economic growth for 2024-2025 to 4-5% per year (vs 3.5-4.5% earlier). KMG: The Company and AD Po...

Kazakhstan Macro: Weaker Tenge Required
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Aug 2023 · 1 response

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the Kazakh economy continued to grow in 7M23, albeit unevenly across sectors. This growth was accompanied by decelerating inflation, which monthly rate varied from 0.5% to 0.6% since May and a similar m-o-m rate is expected in August. Hence the y-o-...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Aug 2023

Aug 11 Turkmenistan: The authorities want to clarify a number of issues on the gas alliance of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan Agriculture Ministry: Kazakhstan has started growing bananas on an industrial scale, and the first harvest is expected in six months Energy Ministry: Daily oil product...

Economy continues to grow amid some slowdown in the industry
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Aug 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 7M23, the short-term indicator (covering over 60% of GDP and involving six major sectors) grew by 5.3% y-o-y. In 1H23, the figure was 5.6%. Unfortunately, the Bureau provided no m-o-m and y-o-y numbers for individual months. Therefore, detecting ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Aug 2023

Jul 28 Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development: Kazakhstan and Qatar have agreed to double the number of flights between the two countries. Prime minister: The potential capacity of a gas processing plant in Kashagan (to be built in the area) has been increased from 2 to 4 bcm/year Sa...

Kazakhstan Macro: The too strong tenge is undesirable for the budget and the economy
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Aug 2023 · 1 response

Even though Kazakhstan’s multi-level budgetary system may look a bit complicated, it proved to be resilient to external shocks as in the previous two decades the authorities were able to accumulate enough cash to keep public finances stable at times of financial storms. As the tenge stayed mostly...

Kazakhstan’s current account deficit in 2Q23 was a bit deeper than expected
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

The current account turned deeply negative in 2Q23 ($2.7 bn), which brought the 1H23 deficit to $3.6 bn. Exports were down y-o-y by 12.3% in 1Q23 and 8.8% in 2Q23. Imports grew y-o-y by 41.3% and 24.7% in 1Q23 and 2Q23. The trade surplus shrank from $5.6bn in 1Q23 to $4.1bn in 2Q23. Generally, th...

Kazakhstan's debt market: no change
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Kazakhstan's debt market remains relatively calm. The growth of interest rates in the US and the EU apparently stopped the government from entering the foreign market in 1H23, even though the CDS spread has decreased by almost 100 bps since the beginning of the year, creating a favorable opportun...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

Jul 17 KazTransOil: The company increased oil transportation by 7% y-o-y in 1H23 to 21.4 mln tons Bureau of National Statistics: Industrial production in Kazakhstan in 1H23 grew by 3.8% y-o-y Bureau of National Statistics: Investments in fixed assets increased by 13.1% y-o-y in 1H23 to KZT6.7 trl...

Kazakhstan macro: Economy likely to grow over 5% in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 24 Jul 2023

Kazakhstan's GDP may grow by over 5.0%, and domestic demand will be the main driver of economic growth. One can expect a strong increase in investment activity given the need for the country to diversify its geographical structure of foreign trade. An inflow of foreign capital will support this. ...

Economic growth remains stable in June and 1H23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jul 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly aggregate measure of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications grew by 5.6% y-o-y in 1H23, which was well above 4.5% y-o-y reported for 5M23. It means that...

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