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High-heat politics burn hopes for agreement
ECUADOR · Forecast · 17 Feb 2021

Those Ecuadorians who do not want a return by the Correistas viewed with hope the meeting held last Friday, February 12, between Guillermo Lasso and Yaku Perez, who have fought vote by vote for their right to contest the second round. A difference of fewer than 34,000 votes in favor of Lasso has ...

Troubled Waters Ahead
ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

When 99.67% of the compiled votes have been counted, the difference between Guillermo Lasso from CREO (19.59%) and Yaku Perez (19.70%) has shrunk around 0.2% since yesterday. There are still 3.53% of compiled votes being revised and counted (close to 400,000 individual votes pending of being veri...

An Unexpected Second Electoral Round
ECUADOR · In Brief · 08 Feb 2021 · 1 response

When 97.5% of the votes have been counted, Andres Arauz maintains an undisputable first place on Sunday's presidential elections with close to 32% of the votes. On the other hand, the second place is still disputed between Yaku Perez (19.8%) and Guillermo Lasso (19.6%). This difference has been f...

High Uncertainty Before the Elections
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Feb 2021

Elections for the first round of the Ecuadorian presidential elections will take place next Sunday, February 7th. Information from polls were available until January 28th, and the uncertainty remains due to diverse results from different pollsters. There are 11 pollsters approved by the National ...

Bogus presidential debates
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jan 2021

After three debates, our opinion of the political and economic future of Ecuador depending on whom is elected has not changed. And we are sure that the confusion of many was not dissipated by the debates, either. We still consider Guillermo Lasso as the best option, and Andres Arauz as the worst....

One problem solved, on to the next
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Dec 2020

As anticipated, the Board of Directors of the IMF approved the second disbursement for Ecuador for $2.0b. This disbursement will be used mainly to catch up with arrears with local governments, public servants, and private sector suppliers, as announced by Minister Mauricio Pozo.On the other hand,...

IMF − the star of Year 2020
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Dec 2020

Official information for the deficits of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector shows that the Republic has complied with the quantitative goals set by the IMF program for 2020. In fact, the cumulative change in the deficit between January-June and January-September for the Ce...

Preliminary Good News from the IMF
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Nov 2020

The statement published by the technical team from the IMF provides good news regarding the latest review of the necessary requirements to access to the upcoming second disbursement of $2.0b under the program. The staff considers those requirements have been met, and albeit this assessment has to...

Political risks beat fiscal threats
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Nov 2020

We maintain our view that the political risks coming from the presidential election and the composition of the National Assembly will dominate next year’s performance because they will determine the fate of fiscal and domestic economic developments. The political arena is not fully decided so ...

A brighter economic outlook amid high political risk
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2020

This year we have assumed the inevitable. GDP will fall between 10% -11% by the end of the year, as it has already fallen 9.97% q/q and 12.4% y/y in Q2 2020. Household consumption fell 11.9% y/y and government consumption was also down, by 10.5% y/y, in Q2. Exports, which until Q1 contributed pos...

Mauricio Pozo, the New Minister of Finance
ECUADOR · In Brief · 07 Oct 2020

Richard Martinez quits after finishing what we consider a remarkable job during the time he has been Minister of Finance. He achieved the renegotiation of private bonds, and has been able to consolidate a new agreement with the IMF that, given its conditions and scope, is quite unprecedented. Mau...

Woman power
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Sep 2020

As Simon Espinosa, a well-known and respected journalist and member of the anti-corruption commission, wrote, it has taken two women, Attorney General Diana Salazar and Judge Daniela Camacho to give Ecuadorians back​ some confidence in the formerly captive system of justice. Over 20 cases of c...

Correa's Sentence for Eight Years of Jail is Ratified
ECUADOR · In Brief · 07 Sep 2020

Today at 3 pm Quito's time, the Criminal Cassation Court ratified the sentence of eight years of prison for bribery for Rafael Correa, Jorge Glass (former vice-president), three former ministers including Alexis Mera (Correa's legal advisor), other memebers of the Correistas' group, and several C...

Political scenario slightly clearer
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Aug 2020

We expected a large dispersion in the political scenario, and that is what we got with 20 political parties registering their candidates for president and vice-president. Our first feeling is that the group representing Rafael Correa - regardless of whether Correa is enabled as a candidate or not...

A painful wait
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Aug 2020

The grand finale for the debt renegotiation was expected for August 20, but has been postponed until the end of the month in anticipation of a green light on a new IMF program. This new program might not be a short-term stand-by given that the current administration is requesting the inclusion...

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