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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Opposition mired in internal crises and low approval, despite poor AMLO results
MEXICO · Report · 20 Dec 2021

Mexico is experiencing several economic and political negative effects as a result of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s failed policies. Yet the two main opposition parties, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN) are bogged down in multifaceted crise...

Economics: Looking ahead to 2022 and beyond
MEXICO · Report · 20 Dec 2021

In the last issue for 2021, in place of our usual monthly review we are providing an overview of the most significant features of the economic outlook for 2022 as it currently stands Despite the extent to which the Mexican economy rebounded in late 2020 and the first half of the current year, we...

Russian Ambassador attends inauguration in Transdnistria, irking Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

On December 19 the Moldovan government expressed its protest at the decision. Transdnistira effectively seceded from Moldova in 1991, and the Russian Army is there. Moscow says its troops are peacekeepers. Transdnistria is a Russian-speaking region of Moldova. The rest of Moldova is mostly Romani...

Russian Macro: The Central Bank Turning Increasingly Hawkish
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Dec 2021

On December 17, the Central Bank of Russia raised its key rate by 100 bps to 8.5% and mentioned that a further rate hike could be possible in mid-February if inflation expectations remain high and inflation itself stays elevated. The regulator one more time referred to its previous views suggesti...

Kyrgyzstan files lawsuit against Canadian gold company
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

On December 16 the suit was filed against Centerra Gold for violating the rights of its workers at Kumtor Mine. The company ran the mine for over 20 years. The company was said to have stopped the administrator from having access to the mine's computers when the government assumed temporary contr...

Central Asia's relations with the Taliban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

The Collective Security Treaty Organization is carrying out military drills along the Afghan Border in December 2021. The CSTO comprises 6 former Soviet republics led by Russia. Uzbekistan is not in the CSTO but has been attending some CSTO conferences on Afghanistan. Russia would dearly like to ...

​Quick reactions to TL’s sharp appreciation
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

After weakening past the 18-mark against the USD, the TL appreciated dramatically after President Erdogan’s statements this evening (link here). Although markets are too illiquid to attribute too much significance to this very sharp movement, it appears to have been triggered by Erdogan’s announc...

Inflation Heading Toward the Target and Contraction of GDP in 2022
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Dec 2021

In the minutes of the last COPOM meeting and in the most recent Inflation Report, the Central Bank left no doubts: monetary policy will remain in significantly restrictive territory for as long as it takes to bring inflation back to the target. However, its projections indicate GDP growth of 1% i...

3Q GDPgrowth revised up to +2.7% y/y
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021

GDP growth in 3Q 2021 was reported +2.7% y/y, up from the +2.4% y/y estimated previously, according to the Statistics Office release today. Household consumption remained strong in 3Q, with +9.0% y/y growth, as did investment in fixed assets, with +14.5% y/y growth. The key point that pulled GDP ...

Robust rebound, with political complications
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 20 Dec 2021

Costa Rica’s Christmas season promises more economic activity, as is usual at this time of year, while unemployment figures are slowly falling. The virtual removal of mobility restrictions and more flexibility for gathering have been key measures, favored by a good pace of vaccination, while new ...

An ominous collection of threats: Omicron, microchips, inflation, fiscal policy and the EU
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Dec 2021

Unlike in previous months, there is some important good news to report on Covid. The local 4th wave of the disease seems to have passed its peak in late November. At present, all leading Covid indicators are improving, essentially thanks to the re-enforcement of face masks and to more effective v...

Inflation in Israel remains low compared to most countries
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Dec 2021

Highlights​: Low inflation in November: *Headline inflation in November inched higher to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, in line with our forecast but at the low end of consensus. *Core inflation has remained stable at 2.1% since September. *Housing rental prices accelerated in November, offset by a ...

Will Beijing turn the taps back on?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Dec 2021

The Evergrande default took the market by surprise as central government support (at least until recently) was widely expected. Since then, China has issued mixed signals about its plans for handling the Evergrande crisis. On one hand, the central bank cut the Required Reserve Ratio, releasing 1 ...

Boric wins. What now?
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021

Gabriel Boric’s victory in Sunday’s run-off election is an amazing political and personal story, from the time he emerged a as a student leader over ten years ago, to his surprise win in his coalition’s primaries last July. And now, at 35 years of age, with the largest amount of votes any winner ...

​Heads Up: Anything can happen this week, but probably nothing will
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

On Friday, the main Turkish stock index collapsed suddenly, triggering two trading halts, as anecdotal evidence emerged of increased cash withdrawals from banks. It is difficult to imagine Turkish financial markets finding an equilibrium level this week, as first economy czar Mr. Nurettin Nebati,...

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