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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation in Israel remains low compared to most countries
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021

Low inflation in November Headline inflation in November inched higher to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, in line with our forecast but at the low end of consensus. Core inflation has remained stable at 2.1% since September. Housing rental prices accelerated in November, offset by a price decline in clothing...

Tensions and discussions over Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021

On December 17 a Ukrainian soldier was killed by pro-Russian rebels. Russia has reportedly massed 100,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern frontier. NATO analysts said this could reach 175,000 in January.Moscow laments that NATO has spurned its offer to de-escalate the tensions. NATO said it will not ...

Some initial consequences of the political power shift in Congress
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2021

Both the Supreme Court’s declaring the reform of the Council of the Magistracy unconstitutional and the Lower House’s rejection of the 2022 budget are two clear signals of the power shift in the Congress after the mid-term elections.Although the underlying risk is that of a radicalization of the ...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC summit, Saudi Q3 GDP, Israeli PM visits UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Dec 2021 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA have concluded Omicron won’t have much of an impact on oil demand. * The GCC summit was a fairly standard affair, with the most notable features being King Salman’s absence and a softer approach to Iran in th...

The House approved the bill to create a new debt installment program for micro and small companies, Congress meets today to analyze presidential vetoes, and Congress will vote on the 2022 Federal Budget next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2021

The House approved the bill that creates a new debt installment program for micro and small companies participating in the Simples Nacional, including individual micro-entrepreneurs (MEI) and companies in judicial recovery. An agreement was not reached for the approval of the Refis, which will ha...

Election Day minus two
CHILE · Report · 17 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

This Sunday’s runoff presidential vote Chile will close a long electoral year, after having elected, over the course of 2021, a constitutional convention, local and regional governments, primary contenders, deputies and senators, and presidential candidates. Now it’s down to just two, José Antoni...

The 1-week deposit rate went to 3.6% today, just as promised
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2021

Today's 1-week deposit tender has brought about to the second MNB interest rate decision this week, which is kind of a nice performance in itself.This time around, the 1-week deposit rate, which is now the effective sterilisation rate, rose by 30 bps, to 3.6%. This was no surprise at all, after M...

The Precatórios PEC has been concluded in Congress, André Fufuca made changes to the Refis bill, and the vote on the Federal Budget has been postponed until next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2021

The House finalized the vote on the PEC, which will be promulgated today, at 2 p.m. There was only one change in relation to the text that was approved in the Senate. The vote on the Refis bill is scheduled for today. The rapporteur, André Fufuca, made changes to the text to reduce the resistance...

Done - and now what?
TURKEY · Report · 16 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate (the weekly repo rate) by another 100 bps today to 14%, broadly in line with expectations (or shall we say, as feared?) bringing the cumulative cuts since September to 500 bps (see chart).

Germany expels 2 Russian diplomats over murder
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2021

On December 14 Berlin said the two were involved in the murder of a Chechen commander who was killed in 2019. Germany says that the Chechen was killed by order of the Russian government. Russian national Vadim Krasikov was sentenced to life imprisonment for the murder.The Kremlin denounced the tr...

Russia's health checks on foreigners might lead to many foreign execs' leaving
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2021

Moscow announced that foreigners resident in Russia will be subjected to a medical test every 3 months. EU companies are lobbying against this, saying it will cause many people to leave. The law is to take effect on December 31. Foreigners will be tested for tuberculosis, coronavirus, drug use, H...

GDP up by 4.6% y-o-y in 9M21 pointing to a deceleration in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s nominal GDP reached R33.9 trln in 3Q21. In 4Q21 the nominal figure will be even higher so that GDP in 2021 as a wh0le will exceed R128 trln, as was reported in our recent forecast. The 9M21 GDP was up by 4.6% y-o-y - having increased by 4.3% y-o-y in 3Q21 and by 7.4...

Inflation w-o-w staying low for a second consecutive week in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending December 13, inflation w-o-w was again at 0.06%, i.e., the same as a week before. In two weeks of December inflation reached just 0.12%, which was in stark contrast to much higher inflation seen in October and November (inflation YTD reached 7.64% by mid...

Inflation in November at low end of expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Dec 2021

Low CPI print in NovemberInflation in November declined by 0.1% m/m and increased by 2.4% y/y (up slightly from 2.3% last month). Expectations were mostly in the 0.0%-0.1% range (our forecast was -0.1%). Both fresh produce prices (-4.6% m/m on warm weather) and clothing prices (-0.8%) surprised o...

The first round of voting on the Precatórios PEC was approved in the House, Sen. Antonio Anastasia’s appointment to the TCU was approved, and the Senate may vote on the edits to the bill providing for tax exemptions when purchasing vehicles
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2021

Two edits submitted by the PT to the Precatórios PEC were rejected. Three more edits need to be analyzed – one from the PT and PSOL, one from the Novo and another from the DEM. The goal is to conclude the first and second rounds of voting today. The parts of the text that are changed will return ...

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