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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

FX intervention slows as the economy recovers
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Aug 2021

The fiscal deficit continues to contract, reaching 9.3% GDP LTM In July, the deficit reached 0.8bn ILS compared to 12bn in July 2020. Tax revenues in Jan-July are up 14% compared to Jan-July 2019. Non-Covid expenditures are up 3.4% and Covid supports have declined. We expect a deficit of close to...

Industry continued to lead the recovery in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2021

The first report on important Q2 data has been released. It is about industrial output, which fell by 0.3% mom but rose by 18.5% yoy in June. In the first place, this means that output stood at 4.8% higher in real terms than in June 2019, which we use as a meaningful pre-Covid base.Second, the Ju...

Russian economic growth slows
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2021

The Chairman of the Accounts Chamber said on August 5 that the economy will not grow more than 2%. He noted that the economy is still too heavily dependent on hydrocarbon exports. Diversification is too slow. The Chairman of the Accounts Chamber wants an investment economy and said that with that...

American investor in Russia convicted of fraud
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Aug 2021

Michael Calvey was found guilty on August 5. The case has transfixed the financial sector since his arrest in February 2019. He was found to have purposely issued bad loans worth USD 34 million in an acquisition deal for a Russian bank in 2015. Calvey was given a 5.5 year suspended sentence.The c...

The straw that broke the camel's back
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Aug 2021

Last week, TotalEnergies and Equinor announced their decision to withdraw from the Petrocedeño joint venture, the most important Venezuelan crude upgrader, capable of processing 190,000 barrels a day of extra-heavy crude and producing 170,000 barrels of synthetic crude of 30o API. PDVSA is now th...

Minister Fux canceled the meeting he planned between the leaders of the three branches of government, the Paper Ballot PEC was rejected in the Special Committee of the House, and Ricardo Barros should testify in the Pandemic CPI next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2021

Luís Roberto Barroso and Alexandre Moraes have been attacked by Bolsonaro due to their positioning on the paper ballot issue and the Fake News allegations. The Paper Ballot PEC can still be put to a vote in the plenary of the House despite being rejected in the Committee. The House will try to vo...

GULF WEEKLY: Tanker attacks overshadow Raisi inauguration, Gulf PMIs are strong, Oman backtracks on subsidy reform
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Aug 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf ministers from UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman attended President Raisi’s inauguration. * Two Europeans were killed in a drone strike on a tanker off Oman, and there was an attempted hijacking of another, both blamed on I...

Withdrawal of the retrospective tax
INDIA · Report · 06 Aug 2021

The government of India has moved a bill to withdraw the retrospective tax introduced in 2012 that led to litigation such as the Vodaphone and Cairn cases. While the bill will put an end to 17 cases in which the tax was imposed retrospectively, this is not a move to resident-based taxation. ​

​Delta watch 3 (ECQ starts)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Aug 2021

On the eve of Metro Manila’s two-week enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) that begins today and ends on August 20, authorities decided to tighten restrictions as well in other key cities and provinces that account for over 40% of GDP. (Table 1) Government is well aware of the economic cost of the...

President Ramaphosa Reshuffles South Africa's National Cabinet - at last!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

A few minutes ago, President Ramaphosa finally delivered the long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle. After months and months of speculation, and following the destructive and unsettling insurrection of the last month, President Ramaphosa had no choice but to make changes to his Cabinet. At the same time,...

Costa Rica: Mid-term revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2021-2022
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The Central Bank of Costa Rica released the mid-term revision of the macroeconomic program for 2021-2022 on July 30th. Based on H1 indicators, with a better external outlook and improvement on vaccine process, the Bank concluded that economic activity will be higher than previous estimates in 202...

Court-ordered payments PEC and new Bolsa Família provisional measure may be submitted, the House approved the urgent status of the income tax bill and the TSE sent a criminal report against Bolsonaro to the STF due to Fake News
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2021

The House may vote on the privatization of the Correios. Bolsonaro’s allies and his son are trying to convince Arthur Lira to take the paper ballot bill directly to a vote in the plenary. A statement was published in the newspaper Estadão that guarantees the elections will be respected next year....

FX intervention tapering
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The BoI appears to have taken its foot off the intervention gas pedal. In July, only 0.5bn USD were purchased following 3.2bn in June and more than 25bn on 1H21. The shekel appreciated by 0.7% in July (against the basket), following a 1% appreciation in June. Pressure for appreciation has continu...

Sber investing heavily in digital ecosystem
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

Sber is investing USD billion in its digital ecosystem in Q1 and Q3 2021. Sber wants to be the main actor in Russia's tech space. The investment is 11.5% of Sber's profits. It was previously called Sberbank. Profits were USD 8.3 billion in Q1 and Q2 2021.Sber has invested heavily in its ecosystem...

Covid update: the infection curve remains low and flat for now
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Aug 2021

The return of Covid in a 4th wave with the Delta variant within a few weeks has been identified as a very likely, or more accurately as an unavoidable, event both by government speakers and by independent experts. Essentially all of the foregoing expect the 4th wave to kick in around late Septemb...

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