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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Dec 12 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 17
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Central America databank Nov 26
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Chile databank Nov 28
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Dec 3
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 21
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Ecuador databank Nov 20
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Gulf Countries databank Dec 12
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Hungary databank Nov 24
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Dec 10
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Dec 12
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Philippines databank Nov 7
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Nov 14
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South Africa databank Dec 9
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Dec 2
NEWS FLASH
LIVE WEBINAR TODAY - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Political risks rise; growth forecast trimmed; fiscal deficit cut to 2.5% of GDP; Central Bank bends toward global risks
PERU · Report · 18 Mar 2025
In this forecast report we cover three topics. First, we discuss the political situation, and argue that risks will rise starting on April 12th, when the 2026 electoral campaign begins. During this period, President Dina Boluarte will become vulnerable to impeachment, and we project the odds of i...
Mitigation or laissez-faire?
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2025
Inflation over the next two years depends on how willing the government will be to use non-reserve foreign assets to mitigate the effects of the recent negative revenue shock stemming from the revocation of General License 41a. In February 2025, the monthly inflation rate rose to 10 percent fr...
Ministerial reform ahead of 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025
The government may send Congress a proposal for an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000. Congress may finally vote on the 2025 Budget. In the Lower House, the installation of permanent committees is expected. The Central Bank holds its second meeting of the year to decide the ben...
Economics: Continuing deterioration of Pemex financial and operational numbers as the government saddles it with objectives but no solutions
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2025
Pemex experienced further operational and financial deterioration during 2024, according to figures in the company’s latest report, so much so as to put its viability at risk and to become an increasingly onerous burden on the Federal Government. Production of liquid hydrocarbons fell 6.2% (1,75...
The path of disinflation: between desire and reality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025
The Central Bank has signaled its understanding that the economy needs to slow down for inflation to converge to the target. In this report, we attempt to estimate the growth rate that aligns with the Central Bank’s scenario, particularly the path that moves from a positive output gap of 0.7% at ...
Politics: Exposure of extermination center, crematoriums rocks Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2025
In a country not lacking in political, economic, and social scandals, Mexican society was jolted by news of the discovery of an extermination center in Teuchitlan, Jalisco on March 8. Photos of clandestine crematoriums, graves containing charred human remains, and hundreds of personal objects suc...
The Joint Budget Committee will vote on the report on Wednesday, the government should send a bill exempting individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 from income tax, and the Monetary Policy Committee will meet this week to decide on the interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025
The Joint Budget Committee will meet on Wednesday (March 19) to vote on Senator Angelo Coronel's (PSD-BA) report on the 2025 Federal Budget. Tomorrow, the government is expected to send Congress a bill exempting individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 from income tax (IR). Currently, only those earnin...
Not much came out of the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Mar 2025
Special points to highlight in this report: • So far, I expect economic activity in 2025 to look a lot like economic activity in 2024. In 2025 we can expect a reduction in the astonishingly high contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2024, balanced by an increase in the disappointingly l...
Monetary policy in the shadow of elections. A look at confidence indicators.
POLAND · Report · 17 Mar 2025
The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing persistent inflationary pressures driven by rising energy prices, food costs, and services. Its March 12 decision to hold interest rates steady reflects an ongoing belief that inflationary trends remain a concern. The ...
On original and mortal sins
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Mar 2025
Critics of the Caputo Plan of December 2023 would have preferred that the myriad exchange controls that constitute the so-called "cepo cambiario" (hereinafter, "cepo") had been eliminated at the start of the plan or shortly thereafter. According to them, the failure to do so by the government is ...
Inflation in Israel slows in February below expectations; No imminent rate change expected
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Mar 2025
Inflation continues to ease: February CPI reading remains flat and below forecasts The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February remained unchanged, below our expectations for a 0.2% increase, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.4%, from 3.8% in January. Core inflation indicators have also...
The mood music and stark realities
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2025
In wone of his most rambling contributions to our Sunday Weekly, the politics author hereby suspends his baseline political scenario of early elections latest by end-March 2026. Alas, he has nothing to replace it with. The first essay explains why numerous connivences to ban Imamoglu will neither...
A postmortem for Ukraine’s Kursk offensive as Russia rejects ceasefire terms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2025
- Russia launches successful offensive in Kursk sector, ejecting Ukrainian troops from most of the territory. - Russia could continue advancing into Ukraine’s territory across the Kursk border if no ceasefire is agreed, as Ukraine evacuates villages in the Sumy Region. - Ukraine ...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi non-oil GDP rises, Kuwait’s cabinet approved the debt law, SWFs make large acquisitions
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Mar 2025 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi non-oil GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in 2024, led by trade & hospitality and finance. * A Neom audit report raised concerns about rising costs and unrealistic revenue projections. * PIF’s video game subsidiary bou...
Webinar Replay - Debt and deficits in emerging markets: South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil - The good, the bad and the ugly?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Mar 2025
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Iraj Abedian (South Africa), Alexandre Schwartsman (Brazil), and Cyrillus Harinowo (Indonesia) discussing public debt in these key emerging economies and where the good, the bad and the ugly of emerging markets fiscal policymak...