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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Opposition to subsidy reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2018

On 5 December the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepeneurs sent a letter to the Russian Government outlining their worries about proposed changes to the system of subsidies. The change would only give subsidies to profitable companies with growing exports. The idea is to reinforce success...

Robust short-term performance but major fundamental risks for medium term
HUNGARY · Presentation · 07 Dec 2018

Hungary’s current macro performance appears robust, with real GDP growth of 4-5%, low unemployment and low inflation by emerging market standards. However, major problems for the medium term include growth and a budget heavily reliant on unsustainable EU grants, inconsistent labor markets and gro...

Monetary stimulus and land sales
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Dec 2018

China has witnessed a significant increase in unsuccessful land auctions in 2018. The rate for the top Tier 1 and 2 cities rose to 6.4 percent in 7M 2018 from 5.7 percent in 2017. In this report, we ask the question – what types of credit are linked to the success or failure of land auctions? And...

Assessing the new relationship with China
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 07 Dec 2018

Economic activity expansion has been amazing all year, rising 6.9% to Q3, while the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity showed an expansion of 8.6% in September. Inflation remained low (0.22%) in October, and the annualized rate reached 3.52%, within the target range set in the monetary prog...

South Africa’s current account deteriorates in the third quarter
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Dec 2018

Following the encouraging GDP numbers earlier this week, indicating South Africa exited the technical recession, the other significant economic metric to come out this week unfortunately shows the country’s current account deteriorated, even if just marginally. The recently released data by the R...

From LEBAC to LELIQ
ARGENTINA · Presentation · 07 Dec 2018

The government is struggling to revert the country's macro imbalances. Central Bank President Guido Sandleris significantly changed the macro policy framework, including unwinding LEBACs. However, the Central Bank must pay a high interest rate to lure banks into the new LELIQs. • Even though the...

World Bank predicts low Russian growth
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2018

The World Bank issued a forecast predicting Russian growth of only up to 1.5% on average until 2028. This is a far cry from the Russian Government's objective. President Putin decreed that Russia should become a top five economy by 2024. In order to achieve this Russia would have to grow at 4.4.%...

Q3 GDP came out even stronger in second estimate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2018

KSH's second estimate of Q3 GDP growth was reported at 1.3% qoq, 5.2% yoy, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, revising the preliminary figures of 1.2% qoq, 5% yoy. The upward revision is no big deal in itself, but the new quarterly GDP total and details allow analysts to revisit their full-yea...

​General Flynn and Muhammed bin Salman
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2018 · 1 response

I’ve been tardy in contributing to GSP Turkey research output, even though I am itching to write a Big Picture essay. My writer’s block is caused by the lengthy road trip of the towering figure in Turkish politics, President Erdogan. There is still very little background on his critical summit wi...

Inflation slows down in November
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Dec 2018

Headline inflation eased to 6.0 percent year-on-year in November from 6.7 percent in October, falling near the lower end of the BSP’s forecast range of 5.8-6.6 percent for the month. This is due largely to slower price increases in selected food items namely rice, meat, fish, fruits, and vegetabl...

SA political economy update Q4-2018
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 Dec 2018

The past few weeks have registered important developments for the SA political economy landscape. We like to review the key issues:Constitutional Change for Land Expropriation without Compensation (EWC): The much debated, feared, and anticipated Parliamentary support for the change of the constit...

Moreno 2, Vice presidents 0
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicunia, Vicepresident of Ecuador presented her resignation today after accusations of extortion of public servants during Correa’s government. Vicunia has not denied public servants made payments in exchange of public jobs, but she said those payments were “volunta...

Ukraine raises tensions despite Russian attempts at de-escalation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

Russia is now allowing Ukrainian merchant ships to and from the Sea of Azov. This is crucial because it allows Ukraine to ship out steel - one of her most valuable exports. President Putin has said that he will allows Ukrainians to become Russian citizens easily. Over a million Ukrainians work in...

COSTA RICA: At last, fiscal reform
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 Dec 2018

After almost two decades discussing fiscal reform in Costa Rica, yesterday, December 3, 2018, Congress finally approved the law in the second lecture, with 34 votes in favor and 17 against. The new law was sanctioned the same day by President Carlos Alvarado and Minister of Finance Rocio Aguilar....

The South African economy exits the technical recession in Q3
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Dec 2018

Today’s all-important GDP results indicate that the SA economy has pulled out of the recession, as we had anticipated. Stats SA reports that quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP increased by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2018, meaning, indeed, the economy is out of the techni...

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