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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
No changes in the monetary policy rate in February 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024
Yesterday, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic decided to maintain in the month of February 2024 the same level of the monetary policy rate in force since last December 2023, equivalent to 7% annually. Also, the interest rate on the permanent liquidity facility and the rate on paid deposit...
A possible budget cut is driving debates behind the scenes, the STF will adjudicate the lifetime ICMS review, and Lewandowski becomes the new Minister of Justice
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2024
A possible Budget cut is driving the fiscal debate in Brasília. The deputy leader of the government in the House, Deputy Pedro Paulo (PSD-RJ), announced that he intends to present a complementary bill or an amendment to a matter that is already being analyzed in the House to formalize the governm...
“They won’t let us govern”
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2024 · 1 response
In reaction to the Procuraduría General’s three-month suspension of Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva, President Gustavo Petro paranoically pointed to a conspiracy against his government. But events may suggest other conclusions: a mishandled bidding process that led to a probably successful suit by ...
War abroad, elections at home
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2024
With two months left to critical municipal elections, CHP incumbents lead in the key battlefront cities of Ankara and Istanbul. Yet, CHP’s allies turned against the party, while the Erdogan-Bahceli alliance is ironclad – and Erdogan has already opened the fiscal floodgates to win. The politics au...
Growth and advantages ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jan 2024
El Salvador will hold presidential elections on February 4th, with president-on-leave Nayib Bukele a leading contender. Despite strong arguments about the unconstitutionality of his running for another term, Bukele’s candidacy is now a certainty. New members of Congress will also be elected and,...
The Central Bank will announce the new Selic today, Lewandowski will become the new Minister of Justice tomorrow, and the Minister of Labor meets with Parliamentary Fronts to discuss work on Sundays and holidays
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2024
Today, the Central Bank will announce its decision on the basic interest rate (Selic), which is currently at 11.75% per year. The rate is expected to be reduced to 11.25%. Tomorrow, February 1, President Lula will inaugurate Ricardo Lewandowski at the Ministry of Justice and Public Security. Lewa...
Private consumption rebounds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 31 Jan 2024
Private consumption has recovered quickly. Credit card purchases increased by 12% m/m in December following 8% in November, wiping out the 16% decline in October. This rebound in domestic consumption is due to the cancelling of limitations on activity and lack of Israelis traveling abroad. This p...
Base rate reduced by 75bps only today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2024
At today's meeting, the Monetary Council decided to reduce the base rate to 10%, by 75 bps, despite a recent indication by the MNB that the monthly pace of rate cuts may be accelerated to 100bps this time. After the meeting, Vice Governor Virág said that the current level and direction of the CPI...
Georgian PM resigns
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2024
On January 19 Irakli Garibashvili made his announcement. This was his second term as PM. It is thought that Irakli Kobakhidze will become prime minister. He is chairman of the Georgian Dream Party, to which Garibashvili also belongs. The constitution requires that the new prime minister must subm...
The Central Bank meets to decide the Selic, union representatives will meet with the government to discuss the civil servants' strike, and working groups on Tax Reform will be created
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2024
Today, the Central Bank meets to decide on the basic interest rate (Selic). The Selic is expected to be reduced to 11.25%. Pressure from civil servants for salary hikes remains strong. Employees and representatives of the Central Bank union (Sinal) will meet with the Ministry of Management and In...
Martinelli's political fate and debt sustainability analysis: both with implications for 2024
PANAMA · Report · 30 Jan 2024
Ricardo Martinelli faces the outcome of his appeal in the corruption case against him. Media and analysts are speculating about the date of the Supreme Court decision, likely confirming the guilty verdict. We conducted a debt sustainability analysis aiming to estimate the level of primary bala...
Stability into the election
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jan 2024
Indonesia's general election is already around the corner—it will be held on February 14, 2024. The incumbent, President Joko Widodo, is ineligible to run for a third time, based on the Indonesian Constitution. The presidential candidates for the current election are former Governor of Metropolit...
The Evergrande court case - what's next?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Jan 2024
The Hong Kong high court ordered one of China’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, to liquidate, theoretically ending several years of uncertainty about the future of the developer. The court appointed a Hong Kong restructuring firm, Alvarez and Marsal, to handle the liquidation...
Russian macro 2023: Feels like an ordinary year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024
Rosstat’s recent revisions of the national accounts for 2021 and 2022 suggest that the Russian economy performed somewhat better in those years than previously estimated. As the quarterly GDP statistics were revised accordingly, it looks as though the current growth trends appear more positive th...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024
THE BET ON POLARIZATION Lula has entered 2024 facing a challenging political scenario, to say the least. Despite decent economic growth and lower inflation in 2023, his approval ratings are not comfortable, and the economic outlook for this year is more modest. Besides public money to boost de...