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Putin registered as an election candidate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2024

On January 29 the announcement was made by the Central Election Commission (CEC). The Putin campaign successfully submitted the requisite number of signatures for his registration, which is 315,000. A small number were invalidated because of mistakes. The signatures had to come from at least 40 o...

Politics: Violence, elections and political control—Part One
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In this issue of the Political Outlook we take a look at the interrelated questions of the presence of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the part of such criminal gangs. The bottom line is that the expansion of organized crime...

Maduro tightens the reins
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Maduro's government started off the year with an offensive to consolidate hardline positions in the face of threats it’s facing in this electoral year. It has three strategic objectives: first, strengthen its leadership and bureaucratic and electoral apparatuses; second, promote division and abst...

What to expect from the municipal elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In the last week of the congressional recess, the government is negotiating solutions to a series of disagreements with Congress. Payroll tax relief and vetoes of congressional funds continue to create tension. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is trying to discuss friction between...

Economics: Data in recent weeks show internal demand leading strong growth, core prices fanning inflation and non-automotive manufacturing falling
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

January delivered further evidence that the Mexican economy performed better in 2023 than had been expected thanks in large part to a resurgence of the construction sector. This sector has benefitted from the combination of massive government outlays for its signature infrastructure projects and ...

The STF decides on the lifetime review of the INSS, Lewandowski takes over as Minister of Justice, and Vale discusses the appointment of a new president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is expected to adjudicate an appeal submitted by the Attorney General's Office (AGU) against a decision that recognized the right of retirees to opt for the application of the most beneficial rule in calculating the retirement benefit (lifetime review of the INSS)....

Special report—Russia increases arms trade with Iran over India
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Russia and Iran are closing in on a major deal that will see two-way arms trade between them increase significantly over coming months and years. This is important for the conflict in Ukraine, where Russian inferiority in drones and unmanned craft was initially telling, but also across other area...

With indicators coming in on the positive side, GDP contraction in Q423 likely to be modest
ISRAEL · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Recent economic indicators have been on the positive side: * The BoI Composite Index increased by 0.4% m/m in December, and November’s print was revised higher, to -0.3% from -0.7%. * Real-time daily data point to strong private consumption growth, reaching 4% above pre-war levels...

Slide Presentation: Philippines - Outlook, risks and challenges for Marcos 2.0
PHILIPPINES · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Get insight into the challenges facing the Marcos administration's sustainable economic growth goals and how the growing divides in the Philippines, the country's charter change, and territorial conflict in the West Philippine Sea will shape the country's political outlook—all with the slide pres...

EU matters, fiscal policy and tomorrow's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2024

The forint, which had been getting progressively weaker since Mr. Virág spoke about the possibility of faster and deeper base rate cuts on January 17, was pushed further in a negative direction on Friday, by Finance Minister Varga's saying that they will aim at reducing the fiscal deficit below 3...

Ukraine has lost 100,000 mortar shells to fraud
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2024

On January 27 the SBU (Ukrainian intelligence) said the scheme uncovered was worth USD 40 million. Ministry Defense civil servants and managers of Lviv Arsenal stole the money. Six people have been given notices of suspicion and another suspect was arrested trying to leave the country. The contra...

GDP contraction in Q423 likely to be relatively modest
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Jan 2024

Recent economic indicators have been on the positive side: The BoI Composite Index increased by 0.4% m/m in December, and November’s print was revised upwards to -0.3% from -0.7%. Real time daily data point to strong private consumption growth reaching 4% above pre-war levels, in part due to the ...

Belarus arrests 159 dissidents
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2024

On January 15 the US and the European Union denounced the arrest of the oppositionists and said those taken into custody are human rights activists. Those arrested are often relatives of political prisoners and prisoners who were freed in 2023. They were arrested by the KGB on suspicion of extrem...

Armenia and Georgia sign deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2024

On January 26 the two prime ministers signed an agreement in Tbilisi. The strategic partnership is about economic, transport and cultural ties. However, few specifics have been disclosed. Trade between the two was worth USD 1 billion in 2023. That seems like a small amount but Armenia has only 3 ...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar upgraded, PIF issues $5bn in bonds, Kuwait foils ISIS plot, ICJ rules on Gaza as Qatari mediation continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jan 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The ICJ made a provisional ruling, and the EU criticized Netanyahu’s rejection of a Palestinian state. * Progress on a ceasefire and hostage release deal was shaken by Netanyahu’s criticism of Qatar. * US-Houthi clashes c...

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