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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

All eyes on the budget, debt ratings and the ballot boxes
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Oct 2025

Our quarterly forecast update is based on two main technical assumptions. One is that US and, indirectly, global trade policies will remain the same as they were known at the end of September 2025. This should include primarily the tariffs agreed between the US and the EU during the summer, and a...

Mauro Vieira had a “very productive” conversation with Marco Rubio, the STF begins analysis of the constitutionality of the payroll tax relief policy, and Lula will launch the Reforma Casa Brasil Program next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Yesterday, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss a possible meeting between President Lula (PT) and U.S. President Donald Trump. Vieira described the conversation as “very productive.” Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) begins, vi...

Strong tax revenues keep 2025 deficit on target near 5% of GDP
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Oct 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 9.5 billion ($2.9 billion) in September, with the trailing 12-month deficit steady at 4.7% of GDP, unchanged from August. This marks a significant improvement from the 8.5% peak recorded in September 2024. Revenues in September totaled NIS ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current accounts in the CCA take a positive turn in 2Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Oct 2025

Poring through BoP data may not be the most exciting thing in economic analysis, including because it is quite backward looking, but in my mostly frontier countries it helps elucidate key insights on the external side. The 2Q25 data for the CCA space has now been published for all economies save ...

Is China open for business?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Oct 2025

China’s rising equity markets and the improving atmosphere in US-China relations is convincing some foreign funds to return to China. They are also attracted to the success of companies such as DeepSeek and BYD and the expansion of robotics, which suggest China’s economy is improving. However, I ...

Kazakhstan macro: Concerned about inflation, the NBK turns more radical
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Oct 2025

A few days ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the base rate by 150 bps to 18%. While a rate hike was anticipated, its magnitude exceeded expectations, as markets predicted a 50-to-100 bps increase. The NBK cited rising inflation as its primary concern, as it reached 12.9% y-o-y in Septem...

Lula’s administration announced the dismissal of political appointees tied to the Centrão, Gonet called for the reopening of the investigation into Abin, and the US and Brazilian governments will discuss the tariff hikes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2025

The administration has announced the dismissal of political appointees tied to members of the centrist bloc (“Centrão”). Yesterday, during events in Bahia, Lula said Congress had never reached such a low level of quality. Yesterday, former President Jair Bolsonaro suffered another setback. Prosec...

Israel September CPI – a sharp downside surprise strengthens the case for rate cuts
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Oct 2025

September CPI surprise: inflation eases sharply to 2.5%, driven by stronger shekel and seasonal factors Israel’s consumer price index fell by 0.6% in September, double our forecast for a 0.3% decline. As a result, annual inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest since February 2024. The decline clearly...

Peru's President Jerí's new cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025

Last night, the new president, José Jerí, took oath to his new Cabinet, consisting of 18 new ministers. Ahead of the Oath Ceremony at the Presidential Palace, Jerí said that none of the previous ministers would be included and his was a “transition Cabinet and of national reconciliation.” Overall...

Alcolumbre will meet today with Haddad to discuss the PLDO, Haddad should meet with Lula to discuss the alternatives to MP 1,303, and the selection of Barroso’s successor on the STF is stirring political activity
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2025

Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) confirmed that he will meet today with Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to discuss the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO). The PLDO has been awaiting a vote in committee for several weeks. Regarding alternatives to MP 1,303, a meeting between President Lula ...

CIS Essential Politics: October 1-15
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2025

- Ukrainian strikes force halt of operations at four major Russian refineries. - Ukraine has a USD 20.5 bn repair backlog after years of strikes against its energy infrastructure. - Putin apologizes to Aliyev as part of détente, signaling end of the diplomatic crisis. - Rus...

Game changer?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Oct 2025

María Corina Machado will receive the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize in December. Although her nomination was known since last year and her track record fits the appropriate profile, the news was a general surprise, triggering three interconnected dynamics: Machado's challenge to maximize the impact ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025

Oct 2 OPEC+: Kazakhstan's "debt" to compensate for the shortfall in OPEC+ production rose to 2.9 mln bpd, with “repayment” peaking in the 1H26. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is not yet meeting OPEC+ compensation schedules, but is making every effort. KMG: Kazakh oil supplies via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ce...

Economics: New energy sector regulations open doors to private investment, but the legal uncertainty is too off-putting
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2025

Decrees that appeared in the October 3 Official Gazette of the Federation contain regulations for six secondary laws in the energy sector: the Energy Planning and Transition Law, the Hydrocarbons Sector Law, the Electricity Sector Law, the Biofuels Law, the Geothermal Energy Law, and the Hydrocar...

Politics: Fraud and extortion continue to rise, with a very low percentage of victims reporting these offenses
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2025

Two Mexican government reports reveal the reality of crime in the country, the victims and their responses, and public security perception on the part of the population. INEGI has just published its 2025 Survey on Victimization and Public Security Perception. It is based on household surveys and ...

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