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Bad news everywhere
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Jun 2024 · 2 responses

The nuts and bolts of the 2024 MTFF have little to do with the much-required process of fiscal consolidation. It turns out most of the negative rumors we’d been hearing were true. A root problem behind the mess was over-optimistic initial revenue estimates. The central government originally expec...

The view from Washington
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Jun 2024

I was invited to a conference organized by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington to launch its new China initiative. The conference featured Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, along with Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor under Trump; Bonnie Lin of the th...

Lula spoke about the Minas Gerais federal debt in an interview, he also discussed the 2026 presidential election, and Congress should continue to discuss payroll tax relief next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2024

President Lula (PT) gave another interview to the press and addressed topics of interest to the market. According to him, the bill that will create an alternative for the debt of Minas Gerais should be completed within fifteen days. Regarding 2026, Lula said that the only scenario in which he cou...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman’s GDP improved in Q1, PIF advanced 5.5GW of solar power, the UAE issued a $1.5bn bond, Bahrain’s foreign minister visited Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Jun 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * EY and Mizuho are the latest firms to receive licenses for Regional HQs in Riyadh. * A PIF-led consortium signed $3.3bn in power purchase deals for 5.5GW in solar plants. * Aramco announced plans to buy a 25% stake in Por...

Jun CCA Highlights: Armenia cuts rates, inflation rears its head in Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia's 1Q24 GDP growth impresses, higher tariffs take a toll on Uzbekistan's inflation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Jun 2024

We comment briefly on the key macro events in the CCA region in Jun: Armenia: Central bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.00 percent Armenia: Inflation returns in May Armenia: Net remittances drop in Apr Armenia: Budget posts small deficit during Jan-May Armenia: Foreign reserves inc...

High hopes and mixed signals
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2024

Costa Rica’s political conditions have stayed the same for the past two years, with strained relationships between President Rodrigo Chaves and members of the congressional opposition now adding to Chaves’ renewed criticism of the Comptroller General. Recall that during these past two years the p...

Russia blocks 81 media outlets
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2024

On June 25 Russia announced that it was doing this. The media outlets are based in 25 of the 27 EU member states. Moscow did this because in May 2024 the EU banned several Russian newspapers and TV channels. The European Union said it did this because these outlets are controlled by the Russian s...

Much Ado About Nothing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jun 2024

Decree 12.079 has been published, establishing the legal framework for changing the methodology of inflation target measurement: instead of verifying whether the target has been met (i.e., whether the observed inflation was within the tolerance range defined by the National Monetary Council, CMN)...

Kazakhstan macro: budgetary spending slows; the strong tenge is dragging on tax revenue
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Jun 2024

In the past week, the KZT weakened from the awkwardly strong levels seen since 4Q23 and reached USD/KZT466 a couple of days ago, having retreated from about USD/KZT440 seen in early May. We have repeatedly mentioned that the long-lasting stability of the nominal exchange rate amid persistently hi...

Lula's interview with UOL has caused some noise in the market, Lira said the report on Tax Reform regulation should be presented on July 3, and Lula will chair a meeting of the CDES
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2024

One of President Lula's interviews has once again caused market disturbances. Yesterday, in an interview with the news outlet UOL, Lula stated that it is not possible to unlink the Continuous Payment Benefit (BPC) and pensions from the minimum wage appreciation policy. Regarding the regulation of...

MPC: No Change, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jun 2024

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 50% (simple) at today’s meeting, as expected. As for the content of the statement, the (middle) paragraph on the monetary policy stance, as well as monetary policy and inflation outlooks, has been kept fully intact, while there were t...

Industry keeps growing steadily as domestic demand remains strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jun 2024

Rosstat reported that in 5M24, the industrial output grew by 5.2% y-o-y. In May, it grew by 5.3% y-o-y and 2.0% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms (therefore, offsetting a minor m-o-m seasonally adjusted contraction by 0.1% in April). The mining segment remains almost flat, having grown by a mere...

Events of July 1: What Should We Anticipate?
PANAMA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024

Election of the Legislative Assembly's Directive Board Out of the 71 legislators established by the Constitution, only 70 will be present for the election of the directorate of the National Assembly (president, vice presidents, and general secretary). The candidate Zulay Rodríguez, who was defeat...

Dominican Republic issues inaugural green bond
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024

The Dominican Republic (DR) has successfully launched its inaugural green bond issuance, raising USD 750 million at an annual rate of 6.7%. This rate is 15 basis points lower than what would have been achieved through conventional non-thematic instruments. The proceeds from this issuance will fun...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024

Jun 12 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will fulfil its June obligations to OPEC+. It will compensate for the accumulated overproduction of oil by the end of Sep 2025. President: Mr. Tokayev supported South Korea's proposal to hold a summit in Seoul next year in the format of 'Central Asia + Korea.' T...

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