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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

CBRT cuts, Moody’s upgrades, politicians dither
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2025 · 1 response

With few neurons firing during an excruciating heatwave, the politics author cuts his essays short, saving his energy for the upcoming quarterly/forecast report. Frankly, with everything being in the air, there is not much to report home, except to say, “this looks like a pregnant pause”. He expe...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s deficit narrows, Qatar bids for Olympics, UAE companies invest in Saudi, France will recognize Palestine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Jul 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * UAE-Saudi cooperation: Al-Futtaim invests in Cenomi and Air Arabia partners for a Dammam airline. * Deals worth $6bn were signed at the Saudi-Syrian investment forum in Damascus. * Dubai saw record home sales in Q2, and S...

NBU holds rate at 15.5% as poor crop outlook fuels inflation risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jul 2025

On July 24th, yesterday, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the third consecutive time. Concerns about the 2025 crop outlook are among the key reasons behind this decision. Wheat yields are expected to be about 5% lower than last year, and projections for other crops are als...

Brazil is showing the first signs of negotiations with the U.S., a congressional committee on the issue is expected to begin its agenda next week, and Justice Moraes ruled that Bolsonaro is allowed to give interviews
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2025

The Brazilian government is showing the first signs that it has established a line of communication with the United States regarding the tariffs announced by Trump. Yesterday, Vice President and Minister of Industry and Trade Geraldo Alckmin said he had a long phone conversation with U.S. Commerc...

Replay and Slide Presentation: Political Passions in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 25 Jul 2025

Is Georgian Dream in the driving seat in the runup to the local elections in October? Why is Armenian PM Pashinyan taking a gamble attacking the Church and what does it have to do with the June 2026 Parliamentary Elections? CCA currencies are in a sweet spot, but for how long? Get insight into...

A private oil license follows the prisoner exchange
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Only four days after the prisoner exchange took place, rumors about a new (probably private) license for Chevron, fueled by the news that Javier La Rosa, head of Base Assets & Emerging Countries at Chevron, had spent a few hours in Venezuela, spread rapidly.

Brazil is still struggling to negotiate with the U.S. regarding Trump’s tariffs, the government is looking for alternative markets for the country’s exports, and Bolsonaro’s legal team discuss Supreme Court restrictions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2025

As Brazil struggles to open a negotiation channel with the United States, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to receive today from his economic team a set of proposals in response to the 50% tariff hike announced by Donald Trump on Brazilian products. These options will be presented to ...

MPC: in a bit of a hurry
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2025

The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a more than expected 300 bps to 43% today, vs consensus and our expectation of 250 bps. The O/N lending and borrowing rates were also lowered by 300 bps (see chart), as the asymmetry of the O/N corridor was maintained, with the former n...

A fair deal?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025

In our recent report on the Philippines’ negotiation with the US government on the level of reciprocal tariff, we argued that only its military and security value could be the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent visit to the US. And he should not squander it. Its small trade su...

The government released its bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, House President Motta suspended all committee meetings, and a special committee on app-based work has been created
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2025

Last night, the federal government released the Revenue and Expenditure Report for the third two-month period of the year and announced the unfreezing of R$20.7 billion from the 2025 budget. The government had frozen R$31.3 billion back in May. Lower House President Hugo Motta suspended all commi...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Jul 9 National Railway Company: Kazakhstan and China have signed an agreement on comprehensive strategic cooperation, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level for the rest of the...

"I thought I won!"
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jul 2025

From all indications, it is Manila's military and security value that was the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent US visit. The country's trade value added is minuscule. Its exports to the US, mainly consisting of semi-con and other electronic products, have very close substitu...

Zelenskiy dismantles anti-corruption independence in power consolidation push
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has behaved poorly in recent weeks. The President’s Office (through the Cabinet) derailed the reboot of the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (ESBU) by rejecting an independent candidate selected by a commission that included international experts. The ESBU reboot ...

Interest rates, assessment all kept unchanged at today's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jul 2025

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council was held this morning. Nobody expected any change, and there was none either, except a reduction of the mandatory reserve ratio for banks, from 10% to 8%, starting from August 1. Why is the latter essentially unimportant? Because th...

Bolsonaro’s party will hold committee sessions in the House despite recess, the government should release its bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, and Haddad said the government is weighing support measures for businesses facing Trump’s tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2025

The Liberal Party has decided to convene sessions of the Public Security and Foreign Affairs Committees, chaired by Deputies Paulo Bilynskyj and Felipe Barros—both close allies of Bolsonaro. In doing so, they are defying a directive from the President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta, who issued a ...

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