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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 28 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 7
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Nov 4
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Philippines databank Nov 7
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Nov 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Nov 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: UZS benefits from a rare confluence of favorable external conditions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Oct 2025
Last week, I argued that CCA appreciation vs. the US$ has come to an end and may only resume on a sustainable basis should the RUB start strengthening again (the RUB has already retraced some of its recent losses). I stressed that the Uzbekistani sum was the only CCA currency that did not quite f...
Economic growth continues to decelerate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2025
Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) showed lackluster performance with just 0.2% y-o-y growth in August and 0.8% in the first eight months of 2025. Many economic segments were sluggish during this period, thou...
The Lower House approved the bill on the income tax exemption, the vote on the measure that taxes gambling was postponed to next week, and a draft bill is circulating that would counteract Trump’s sanctions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2025
With 493 votes in favor and none against, the Lower House approved the bill that exempts personal income tax (IRPF) on earnings up to R$ 5,000 (Bill 1,087/25). Despite resistance, the final text includes a tax of up to 10% on high incomes and dividends. Also on the agenda was the Joint Budget Com...
A quick guide to the flood control anomalies in the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · Report · 02 Oct 2025 · 1 response
The Philippine flood control scandal has exploded into one of the country’s largest corruption crises in decades, exposing the scale of wasted funds and institutional decay. Sparked by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s 2025 State of the Nation Address, the scandal revealed “ghost projects” — incom...
Excellent new fiscal data for H1 2025, paradoxically requiring the continuation of tight MNB policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
The Eurostat-methodology figures for the government sector deficit, the main indicator for fiscal policy, was published for H1 2025 yesterday. The deficit ratio was surprisingly low, only 0.7% of GDP in that period. This result could raise eyebrows on the market, given the cash deficit ratio of t...
Inflation accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation in September reached 1.1% m-o-m and 12.9% y-o-y, up from 12.2% y-o-y in August. It seems that previously delayed budgetary spending is now aligning with the upwardly revised plans. This year, the government adjusted expenditures for the re...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
Sep 18 Mineral resources: In 4Q25, Canadian Laramide Resources will start exploratory drilling in southern Kazakhstan for uranium, REM and copper in 4Q25. Sep 22 Halyk Bank: The Bank will pay another $423.5 mln in dividends for 2024. KMG: The company and ExxonMobil have agreed to cooperate in the...
Dark clouds ahead
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
Earlier assessments suggested that the post-pandemic slowdown in gross domestic capital formation (GDCF) could be constraining the Philippines’ productivity growth and long-term potential output. The latest data support this concern: from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, GDCF gro...
Reduction of the Monetary Policy Interest Rate by 25 Basis Points
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Oct 2025
Yesterday, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) reduced the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) by 25 basis points, from 5.75% to 5.50% per year. At the same time, it also lowered the rate of the overnight liquidity expansion facility (one-day repos) from 6.25% to 6.00% per year. The...
The House will attempt to vote on the bill granting income tax exemptions, Lula met with leaders to discuss the legislative agenda through the end of the year, and the Senate approved the IBS tax Management Committee bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2025
Today, the Lower House will attempt to vote on the bill granting an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. The opposition is trying to eliminate all compensation measures from the text. President Lula met yesterday with Minister of Institutional Relations Gleisi Ho...
BAHRAIN: Deficit expands in H1 ahead of sukuk issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
It's a busy time for Gulf sovereign bond issuance, with $3bn from Abu Dhabi last week, $11.25bn from Kuwait today (see this note) and another UAE emirate expected to issue soon. Next up is Bahrain, with its second issuance of the year, following its $2.5bn bond/sukuk in May. There is some importa...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 1, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Sep 2025
In the past week, Israeli markets and policy were shaped by two dominant forces: geopolitics and monetary policy. On the geopolitical side, Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan dominated headlines, offering a comprehensive framework that received broad international support but faces uncertainty around Ham...
Low growth, remittance surges and a presidential election mystery
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2025
El Salvador suffers from chronically low economic growth, and our April 2025 projections seemed to confirm this weak performance. Recent history, from June 2019 to date, when President Nayib Bukele defeated a paralyzing bipartisanship, has showed no improvement in growth. Restoration of public se...
Politics back to normal, mixed signals on economic performance and inflation, and a gloomy fiscal outlook
POLAND · Report · 30 Sep 2025
Polish politics briefly united during the September 9 drone crisis but then quickly reverted to partisan tensions. With the KO and PiS leading in polls, PiS’s rural dominance suggests a likely coalition with Konfederacja, sidelining the KO. Economically, Poland experienced strong growth in Q2 202...
Russian macro: budgetary policy to be thriftier
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025
On September 29, the government released its revised 2026-2028 macroeconomic forecast and presented to the Duma a draft federal budget for the same period. While this year’s economic performance has been weak (aligning with the CBR's previous warnings), the government anticipates 1.0% GDP growth....