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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 14 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 25
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Ecuador databank Sep 30
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 10
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Hungary databank Sep 11
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Sep 15
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: GOING INTO THE FIRST ROUND...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Russian drones in Polish airspace. What to think?
POLAND · In Brief · 11 Sep 2025
Russian drones in Polish airspace. What to think? The (known) facts and our take During the night and the early morning of September 9, Russian drones entered the Polish airspace multiple times. The incident occurred during the Russian heavy bombing operation on Ukraine involving 400 drones and 1...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2025
The ruble's performance on the FX market has been a major talking point over the past couple of weeks, with its sudden 5.7% depreciation against the dollar since early September, hovering around USD/RUB 85 in recent days. Fundamentally, this isn't surprising, as the ruble remains as strong in rea...
Strong-forint policy has become more accentuated
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Sep 2025
The authorities’ desire to reduce inflation before the election has become more evident than at any time previously. The government cabinet has decided to extend the existing caps on retail margins, and the Economy Minister has hinted at a postponement of an excise tax increase originally planned...
The STF continues Bolsonaro’s trial with Justice Lúcia’s vote, the report on tax reform was submitted, and the House postponed the vote on the Social Electricity Tariff provisional measure
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2025
This afternoon, the First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court resumes the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état, with the vote of Justice Cármen Lúcia. Yesterday, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) received Senator Eduardo...
MPC reduces the policy rate more than expected
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2025
The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate by a more-than-expected 250 bps today to 40.5%, compared with a revised market consensus of 200 bps, with equal reductions in O/N lending and borrowing rates. To recall, until about 10 days ago, the consensus was another 300 bps cut, but this was revised down ...
The STF continues Bolsonaro’s trial with Justice Fux’s vote, the report on the Management Committee bill was released, and the rapporteur of the MP on the IOF should issue his report next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2025
The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court resumes today the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état. The trial will continue with Justice Luiz Fux’s vote. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB–AM), rapporteur of the bill regulating the IBS M...
Russian drones in NATO airspace: Hungary unaffected, PM Orbán has taken side with Poland
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2025
The violation of Polish airspace by more than a dozen Russian drones (all of which have been intercepted by US and Polish airplanes) during the night did not affect Hungary (see the chart below). PM Orbán has issued a brief statement in the morning: 'Hungary expresses its full solidarity with Pol...
Economic growth improves in Q2-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Sep 2025
South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP expanded by 0.8% during the second quarter of 2025 following the first quarter’s 0.1% q/q increase. On account of the generally weak quarterly growth rates, real GDP in the first half of the year was only 0.7% higher than that of the corresponding period...
The great Chinese tech mirage
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Sep 2025
“Underestimating China” has become the new consensus of China’s current global position. From China’s rise to the collapse post-Covid, we now have a new discussion that sees China’s industrial capacity and technological prowess as a potential threat to the West. Council on Foreign Relations An...
The federal budget deficit is expected to surpass the revised target
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
According to the Ministry of Finance's 8M25 budget execution statistics, total revenues increased by only 3.0% year-on-year, covering about 61.6% of the adjusted annual plan. The original plan projected oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues at R10.9 trln, but this was revised down to R8.3 trln. Due to a str...
Don’t look up: watch the “peace deal”
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Sep 2025
It’s remarkable how world leaders skillfully avert their eyes from harsh realities, continuing to speak of some fanciful end to the war, and "security guarantees" that offer neither security nor guarantees. This diplomatic ballet feels especially detached from reality when viewed from Ukrainian c...
The STF resumes Bolsonaro’s trial, the report on the Management Committee bill should be released, and the proposal on precatórios should be promulgated
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2025
The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) today resumes the criminal trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven other defendants accused of attempting a coup d’état in 2022. The trial will continue until Friday, September 12. In the Senate, the rapporteur of the complem...
Market and Business Backlash Over Flood Control Corruption
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
As the Philippines' House of Representatives and the Senate pursue public hearings on the anomalous flood control projects, one clear consequence has been a negative market reaction. Just before the weekend, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index slipped 0.75% (46 points) to close at 6,082.92, while...
A changing of the finance guard
INDONESIA · Report · 09 Sep 2025
On September 8, 2025, there was a change in the line-up of the Indonesian cabinet involving an important post, that of the Finance Secretary. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the former Finance Secretary, who was in that job for more than 10 years, was replaced by Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, who had been in the ...
QATAR: Israeli airstrike on Hamas villa in Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
UPDATE: A Qatari security officer was killed. This significantly increases the stakes. Meanwhile, although some Hamas members were killed, the senior leaders were not. At about 4pm local time today, an Israeli airstrike targeted the residence of Hamas's political office in the West Bay Lagoon nei...