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UPCOMING WEBINAR - GULF COUNTRIES REGIONAL OUTLOOK...

MPC: Done for now
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jan 2024

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBRT hiked the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% (see chart) and ended the tightening cycle – at least in the near term -- in line with expectations. “Taking into account the lagged impact of monetary tightening, the Committee assesses that the monetary tightness ...

The government will issue a new ordinance regarding work on holidays, Lira scheduled a meeting with leaders next week, and the Voa Brasil program should be announced by President Lula on February 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2024

Yesterday, a meeting in Brasília finalized the agreement between the government, businesspeople, and workers regarding working rules for the retail sector on holidays. With the agreement, a new ordinance will be published, defining which commercial activities require and which do not require prio...

Kazakhstan macro: Domestic demand expands amid booming consumer credit growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Jan 2024

On January 19, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 50 bps to 15.25%, which is still high as y-o-y inflation fell to 9.8% at the end of 2023. In December, m-o-m inflation reached 0.8%, implying about 10% annualized. Meanwhile, in recent months, the annualized 3M moving average inf...

Uzbek President in Beijing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2024

On January 23 President Mirziyoyev began a 3-day state visit to China. He seems to be mostly touting for investment. He is due to meet President Xi. China has been the single biggest trade partner for Uzbekistan since 2023. Trade between the two countries reached USD 14 billion. That is a stunnin...

Moderate recovery and sticky inflation
HUNGARY · Forecast · 24 Jan 2024

Our new quarterly forecast for 2024-2025 uses the average energy import prices of 2023, and it treats the possible escalation of the existing sharp conflicts in the Middle East, and a substantial upturn in energy prices and sea transportation costs as a result, as a major risk factor for 2024-202...

The National Negotiation Table meets to discuss work in retail on holidays, Haddad said that the income tax exemption range will be updated by February, and the Federal Revenue Service published updated data for 2023
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2024

Today, January 24, the National Negotiation Table meets for the first time in Brasília to discuss work in retail on holidays. The table was requested after, at the end of last year, the Ministry of Labor issued a decree revoking the permanent authorization to work in retail on holidays. The Minis...

Economic contraction in Q4 apparently less than expected
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Jan 2024

The Composite State of the Economy Index increased by 0.4 percent in December—reflecting the economy’s gradual recovery from the impact of the war. The war continued in December, but its impact on activity continued to weaken. It is interesting to note, that the Composite Index, which is co-incid...

UK accuses Russia of buying munitions from North Korea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2024

On January 23 the United Kingdom showed the UN satellite images of 3 Russian ships in North Korea that were allegedly loading munitions to be used in the Ukraine War. However, the containers loaded cannot be proven to be filled with munitions. The ships were photographed in late 2023. The US has ...

The Annual Budget Law was sanctioned by Lula yesterday, Federal Revenue Service tax auditors continue their strike, and Haddad said the government may have to cut spending to meet the zero-deficit fiscal target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jan 2024

The Annual Budget Law (LOA), which was sanctioned by President Lula (PT) yesterday, was published in today's Federal Official Gazette. He vetoed part of the budget foreseen for committee amendments. The National Congress will likely try to overturn Lula's veto and reestablish the amendments. Acco...

Economics: Housing resurgence is limited by credit scarcity while GFI in construction of trade-related capacity dominates the private component
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Much of the dynamism that we have been witnessing in the construction sector is explained by the latest rise in spending on public works, especially with what the current administration is pumping into its flagship railroad projects, as we noted in our January 8 Outlook. However, in recent months...

US Interest Rates and the Brazilian Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2024

Since 2022, the movements of the Real have closely followed the variations of the Dollar Index, which in turn reflects betting on the movements of the fed funds rate. Although the market wager on an early start of the easing cycle in the United States was strengthened by the comments of Jerome Po...

The fiscal balance issue and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jan 2024

Although there are no public meetings scheduled, the leaders of the National Congress, especially those in the House, are discussing payroll tax relief. This will be a busy week concerning industrial policy, with negotiations around the taxation of imported steel and the publication of the 2024-2...

Economic landscape in 2024 should be more manageable, yet not without risks
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 22 Jan 2024

The Dominican Republic experienced both commendable and less favorable outcomes in 2023. The inflation target was achieved in 2023 with a rate of 3.57%, less than half the rate of 2022. But GDP growth is estimated to have ended the year at around 2.3%, possibly the fourth-lowest growth rate since...

Public servants hold strikes, the steel sector calls for a higher tax on imported steel, and the government is expected to sanction the 2024 Budget today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jan 2024

The fact that the government did not include a salary raise for federal public servants in this year's budget has caused some dissatisfaction, and strike movements are beginning to gain strength. The government has not yet addressed the issue, but negotiations are underway. The government will me...

Governor Yaron appears satisfied by the fiscal adjustments recently approved in the Cabinet
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jan 2024

1. The Governor appears cautiously optimistic regarding the recent fiscal adjustments approved in the Cabinet. 2. Inflation declined sharply in Q4 due to the impact of the war, but is likely to rise when hostilities diminish. 3. The labor market remains tight (with the number of officiall...