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MNB base rate up by 100 bps, to 5.4% today
HUNGARY - In Brief 26 Apr 2022
The Monetary Council raised the base rate by more than we expected, but its action corresponded to the median expectation of private sector analysts. By this move, the interest rate corridor rose by 100 bps as well, to 5.4-8.4%, increasing the upward potential for the 1-week deposit rate, the eff...

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The government’s economic measures may be positive for Bolsonaro’s popularity, the House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and Bolsonaro stated he would not comply with the STF decision if it approves the revision of indigenous lands demarcation
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 26 Apr 2022
Yesterday, an FSB/BTG Pactual poll showed that the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro dropped from 14% to 9% from March to April. The government has started the early payment of the 13th salary installment for INSS retirees and pensioners. The likelihood that the vote on the Auxílio Brasil provisiona...

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​Opposition summit:Good news, bad news
TURKEY - In Brief 25 Apr 2022
Six opposition leaders constituting the Nation Alliance gathered Sunday night to debate how to mitigate the big-party bias of the amendments to the electoral law, as well as the previously proposed formation of “standing committees” to study the possibility of writing a coalition protocol.I write...

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The Projections of the IMF for the World and Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 25 Apr 2022
The last World Economic Outlook confirmed what was expected, a weaker growth projection (in relation to that of January) for the world economy in 2022. It is increasingly clear that additional deceleration is in store for the United States due to a more intense shift of monetary policy to restric...

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Economics: Inflation and depressed growth mean that recent wage hikes pose new hurdles for economy
MEXICO - Report 25 Apr 2022
In a context of high inflation and clear signs of economic weakening, we estimate that collective bargaining wage negotiations in the coming months will be contaminated by deteriorating inflation expectations and represent an additional obstacle over the medium term to slowing the pace at which p...

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Politics: Wide-ranging effects of AMLO’s failed attempt to pass electric power sector reform
MEXICO - Report 25 Apr 2022
It became increasingly obvious in the days leading up to the Easter Sunday vote in the Chamber of Deputies that the administration’s electric power sector reform was headed for defeat as the leaders of all four opposition congressional caucuses, with their 223 deputies, made it clear they would s...

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Ukraine seems to be launching missiles into Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 25 Apr 2022
On April 25 a fire at a Bryansk civilian oil depot and on oil depot at a military base appear to have been caused by Ukrainian missiles. Russia confirmed the fires but played down the suggestions that they were caused by enemy action. Bryansk is less than 100 km from Ukraine. Is it within range f...

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A period of opportunity in the legislature and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Apr 2022
The conflict between Bolsonaro and the judiciary over the presidential pardon granted to Deputy Daniel Silveira will continue to cause repercussions in political and legal circles. Two new polls on the presidential elections will be published. Employees of the Federal Police will hold a demonstra...

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BRI across Russia in jeopardy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 25 Apr 2022
China intended Russia to form a vital part of the Belt and Road Initiative. China wanted railroads and roads across Russia to be upgraded. The aim was to have a fast trade route so Russia could easily export goods to the EU.Sanctions on Russia have made trade via Russia problematic. China wants t...

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President Bolsonaro’s pardon of Daniel Silveira continues to have repercussions, the government and Congress discuss whether or not to vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and Eduardo Leite announces his withdrawal from the presidential election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Apr 2022
Cases have been filed in the STF against Bolsonaro’s decree. Additionally, opposition legislators have submitted a draft decree with the objective of annulling the presidential decree. Daniel Silveira is unlikely to be arrested but his ineligibility will likely remain in effect. Fearing defeat, s...

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Russian macro: key rate cuts likely to continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 25 Apr 2022
The Central Bank is due to hold its regular BoD meeting on April 29, and it is widely assumed that the key rate will be cut – the consensus points to 200 bps. Indeed, there is enough room for the CBR to cut the key rate as the ruble has impressively recovered to the levels seen before February 24...

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A new game plan, new interventions
TURKEY - Report 24 Apr 2022 2 responses
The Erdogan administration seems to have grasped that the Ukraine War shall last for the foreseeable future, with its reverberations on geopolitics and domestic economy to be felt through the next elections. Hence, it is executing a new game plan, which is likely to have important economic implic...

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Moldova bans the Z symbol
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 24 Apr 2022
On April 22 the President of Moldova signed a law forbidding display of the ribbon of St George, which is a Russian patriotic symbol, as well as Z and V, which are seen to be indicative of support for Russia's war in Ukraine. The penalty for violation of this law is a fine of USD 49, which is a w...

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Russian customs data made secret
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 24 Apr 2022
On April 22 Moscow made the announcement. It is suspected that trade has declined precipitously since the Ukraine War commenced. The ostensible reason for classifying customs statistics is that they would be liable to misinterpretation. The Federal Customs Service is no longer publishing figures....

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Russian tech giant suffering
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 24 Apr 2022
Yandex is the Russian tech giant. It was supposed to be able to solve all sorts of problems. Yandex has had to use its media aggregator to censor the media on behalf of the government. The public is only allowed information on the Ukraine conflict from official Russian sources. Therefore, almost ...