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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Data released in July shows weakening growth while global slowing casts a pall
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2022

Inegi’s preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP showed the economy continuing to cruise along at roughly the same pace as it did between January and March. The report shows continuing gains in the agricultural and service sectors but especially the secondary sector, which despite setbacks in i...

The Central Bank’s Policy and the Growth of the Neutral Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2022

At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank raised the Selic rate to 13.75% a year and did not rule out one or more new increases of lesser magnitude. Even though it is widely recognized that monetary policy is already strongly restrictive, which will lead to a decline of inflation, criticisms ex...

Politics: Morena internal elections plagued by massive irregularities
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2022

Over the weekend of July 30-31, Morena held internal elections to select delegates to its national congress slated for September 17-18. The congress will elect a new National Council and National Executive Committee. This coming weekend the same delegates will meet to elect their respective state...

Candidates' challenges on the road to the Planalto Palace and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2022

This week, the government's expanded social aid programs begin. The sanction of the LDO is also expected. The Fiesp and civil society organizations publish the Letter in Defense of Democracy. In the Judiciary, emphasis is given to the resumption of the judgment on the Administrative Improbity Law...

Fiscal adjustment remains on track in July; CPI-inflation prospects for tomorrow's data release
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2022

The central government's cash balance was a HUF256bn surplus, which brought the cumulative seven-month deficit down to 7.4% of GDP, from H1's 9.6% and a record-high 16% in Q1. Although July tends to be a month with relatively strong fiscal cash flow, because of a quarterly peak of VAT payments, t...

From Russia, with love
TURKEY · Report · 08 Aug 2022 · 1 response

Over the last two weeks, news flow from Russia has been the subject of much attention and controversy in Turkey. Market attention on the “Russian news pipeline” began with an article in Bloomberg heralding cash transfers from Rosatom to Turkey for the construction expenses of Akkuyu nuclear react...

The government’s social aid programs begin, tomorrow is the deadline for Bolsonaro to sanction the LDO, and latest poll shows the smallest gap between Lula and Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2022

The Auxílio Brasil payments will rise from R$ 400 to R$ 600, and the gas voucher will be paid at R$110. This is the government's main hope to improve its popularity ratings. The LDO was approved by Congress on July 12. Based on the premises defined by the LDO, the government will send the Federal...

The shekel appreciates sharply, supporting lower inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Aug 2022

* Wage growth in the private sector continues, mostly in hi-tech and finance. * Sharp shekel appreciation and lower energy prices have pushed our inflation forecast down. * Recent escalation in violence is not expected to have any real impact on growth or on markets. A cease fire was rea...

The shekel appreciates sharply, supporting lower inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Aug 2022

Geopolitics: Violence escalated in the region following Israel’s striking at Islamic Jihad positions (and commanders) in Gaza and subsequent firing of some 800 missiles into Israel. Israel’s Iron Dome succeeded in neutralizing 96% of those missiles approaching populated areas. So far, Hamas has s...

Castillo reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 07 Aug 2022

On Friday, President Castillo reshuffled his Cabinet for the fifth time in a year of government. Although his Prime Minister (PM), Mr. Anibal Torres, had resigned, President Castillo said on Friday that had confirmed him once again. In addition, he made 6 more changes, and the most relevant was t...

Ukrainian nuclear power plant damaged in fighting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2022

On August 6 Ukraine said that Russia has been using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a military base and firing on Ukrainian positions from there. Ukraine does not fire back at the plant for fear of causing a nuclear catastrophe. The plant has sustained major damage but it is unclear who c...

Ukrainian grain export deal succeeding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2022

On August 5 three ships carrying a total of 80,000 tons of grain sailed out of Odessa. On August 6 a Barbadian ship arrived in Chornomorsk, Ukraine to pick up grain. It will sail to Turkey. Several more ships are due to dock in Ukraine over the next few days.  Chornomorsk can handle 100 ships a m...

Azerbaijan firing on Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Aug 2022

On August 4 an exchange of fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan led to the death of 3 Armenian soldiers. Azerbaijan has moved forward and gained high ground. Russia reprimanded Azerbaijan for this. Both countries said the other broke the ceasefire. The fighting took place in the part of Nagorno Ka...

Key takeaways from China’s mortgage crisis
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Aug 2022

China’s economy has done surprisingly well through the Covid period – until now. Throughout the Covid period China has sustained growth through investment and exports. In the midst of a weak global economy, exports rose 14 percent YoY in 1H 2022, and in 2021, China’s total trade was up 30 percent...

Bolsonaro sanctioned the national nursing salary floor, the government’s social aid programs are scheduled to begin, and Tuesday is the deadline for Bolsonaro to sanction the LDO
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2022

Regarding the national nursing salary floor, Bolsonaro vetoed a measure that provided for an annual update of the floor based on the National Consumer Price Index (INPC). Next week, the payment of social aid programs approved by the National Congress will begin. The government expects the payment...

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