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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Stabilizing inertia is weakening
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2022

The anti-inflationary policy based on containing bolivar depreciation yielded modest results in July. Inflation slowed down to 7.0 percent from 9.5 percent in June, while the bolivar depreciated in nominal terms against the dollar by only 2.6 percent after having done so by 9.3 percent the month ...

Economics: Pemex continues to catch a break but may have squandered the chance to profitably apply the price-fueled windfall
MEXICO · Report · 15 Aug 2022

In keeping with the general tenor of the company’s first quarter report, Pemex’s April-June performance continued to greatly benefit from the market conditions that have sent crude and gas prices sharply higher. The company’s second quarter results showed added momentum on numerous upstream and d...

Today is the last day for parties to register their slates and coalitions at the TSE, party advertisements begin on Tuesday, and three presidential polls will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2022

Political parties will have until 7 p.m. today to register their complete slates at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), with candidates for president and vice president, as well as the parties that make up their coalition. On Tuesday, August 16, party advertisements will begin. With this, rallies...

Rebels to rubles
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2022 · 1 response

It is useful to watch the time-travel spy thriller “Tenet” (link here) before reading this brief note. Like in that controversial movie, the action in this essay moves from front to back and side-to-side. That is, it jumps from Erdogan’s new initiative to reach out to Syrian President Assad t...

Shekel appreciation continues and is expected to moderate tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Aug 2022

* Rapid shekel appreciation continued last week, reducing our inflation forecast as well as our rate forecast. * Economic indicators remain generally positive, especially the business sector survey (including high-tech). * We expect July’s CPI to reach 0.7% m/m (4.7% y/y) on higher food,...

S&P rating action, Guardian on local courts, construction industry and the strong dollar: the forint is under some pressure again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

The forint is still trading on the strong side of the important EURHUF 400 line, which is great, but it has come under some pressure this morning. Besides today's strong dollar, which is normally negative for the Hungarian currency, there are some domestic factors behind this as well. First, S&P ...

Russia increases energy sales to Hungary
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2022

On August 14 Hungary said that it has received extra gas from Russia. The Hungarian Foreign Minister visited Russia in July 2022. He is the only EU foreign minister to do so since the war began. Hungary stated that these talks secured the gas supplies which are 2.6 million cubic meters per day ad...

Shekel appreciation continues and is expected to moderate monetary tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2022

Consumers are pessimistic but the business sector sees growth ahead: The CBS consumer index declined in July to the lowest level since October 2020 (Covid lockdown), especially the forward-looking components. The Business Sector Tendency Survey points to steady growth and expectations of further ...

Valdez Albizu ratified as Governor of the Central Bank
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Aug 2022

President Luis Abinader has ratified the current governor of the Central Bank, Hector Valdez Albizu, to remain in the position for the period 2022-2024. Valdez Albizu has held the position for 24 years (1994-2000 and 2004-2022). He has worked as Governor of the Central Bank in the administrations...

Russian macro: balance of payments undergoing radical change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2022

As the group of “unfriendly” countries is working hard to prepare the mechanism that could impose a price cap on Russian oil exports and is trying to convince other countries to join their club, it is worth looking at Russia’s balance of payments and consider its possible evolution. It looks as t...

Latvia declares Russia a ''state sponsor of terrorism''
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2022

On August 11 the Latvian Parliament passed a motion saying Russia had committed genocide in Ukraine. No one voted against the motion. Ukraine applauded the move.  Russia denounced this as xenophobia and accused those who passed the motion of being neo-Nazis. Latvia noted that Russia often uses cl...

The event in defense of democracy was held at USP yesterday, next week the electoral campaigns begin, and Minister Alexandre de Moraes takes over as the president of the TSE
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2022

The event had wide coverage in the press. Representatives of social movements that participated in the event took advantage of the opportunity and strongly criticized the government of President Jair Bolsonaro. On Tuesday, August 16, the election campaign begins. Candidates can begin asking for v...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman mulls EDO sukuk amidst H1 surplus, Kuwait hikes rates further, nuclear deal text “final”
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to $100 as the IEA lifted its demand forecasts, even though OPEC reduced its own. * The Iran nuclear deal text was finalized, and political decisions are pending on whether to sign it. * The Saudi ministry o...

Inflation continues rising
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

Although roughly speaking in line with market expectations, bearing in mind the sharp depreciation of the informal FX rate following Martín Guzman´s resignation, July’s 7.4% m/m CPI inflation remains nevertheless a worrisome measurement of the “fever” that the economy suffers due to its significa...

Avoiding economic crisis amid political litmus tests
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 11 Aug 2022

Amid an increasingly restrictive monetary policy and increases in widespread subsidies, economic growth (5.6%) and inflation (9.5%) in H1 2022 maintained momentum compared to H1 2021. This was also true when compared with January-May 2022. Economic growth has been mainly associated with the stron...

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