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Some EU countries want to ban Russian visitors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

On August 10 Estonia called for all Russians to be prohibited from visiting the EU. Finland is mulling reducing the number of visas for Russians. The question is whether banning Russians from the EU would send a strong anti-war message to Russia, or would it hurt anti-war Russians as well as heig...

There will be several demonstrations for democracy today, Bolsonaro, Lula and Ciro submitted their government plans to the TSE, and the STF ministers unanimously approved their salary raise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2022

The demonstrations will take place in at least 20 Brazilian cities in the law schools of several public and private universities. There will also be a demonstration in Brasilia. President Jair Bolsonaro's program provides for the maintenance of the Auxílio Brasil program with payments of R$ 600 f...

Vice governor Virág expects inflation close to 20% by year end
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2022

MNB vice governor Barnabás Virág spoke on the radio yesterday. He was asked about inflation prospects. Although he gave a view that was quite a lot different from the Bank's Q2 inflation forecast of late June, he pretty much just confirmed the obvious, by saying that the headline CPI-inflation ra...

Global and domestic shocks to slow the South African economy following the impressive Q1-2022 GDP print
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 10 Aug 2022

• South African growth: Following its notable recovery in 2021, the South African economy once again surprised on the upside during the first quarter of 2022. However, due to numerous negative shocks acting as headwinds, evidence is pointing to a contraction in the second quarter of 2022. • So...

The STF will decide whether it will grant a salary raise to employees of the Judiciary, Lula participated in an event at the Fiesp yesterday, and the IBGE showed that the national inflation rate decreased by 0.68%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2022

If the salary raise proposal in the STF is submitted and approved by Congress, the STF has stated that the raise must be paid with funds that have been relocated from the Judiciary's budget. The issue is the resulting domino effect, since the STF's salary is the ceiling for the civil service. For...

Prompt reaction: MOL has settled the transit fee on Russian oil shipments to Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2022

After yesterday's shock announcement that oil shipments by Russia to Hungary (Czechia and Slovakia) through Ukraine were halted five days earlier because of a 'technical problem' around the financial settlement of the transit fee due from Russia to Ukraine, the outlines of a quick and simple solu...

Russia’s external balances widen in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2022

The Central Bank released its flash estimate of the current account surplus along with the combined balance of goods and services in 7M22. The former reached $166.6 bn while the latter widened to $192.4 bn, i.e., to levels which one couldn’t imagine several months ago. Moreover, it appears that i...

Ukraine appears to strike bases in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Aug 2022

On August 8 the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian naval air base. Russian sources acknowledged one person was killed and several were wounded. But the Russian government then said that there were no casualties. According to some sources there were 13 explosions. Russia admitted that there was...

No Russian crude oil is currently flowing into Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

We apologise for raising the flag the second time today on something that happened Hungary. Normally, events should be on holiday at this time of the year, but somehow this is not the time for a calm and balanced summer recess. So the thing is that, as reported today, the usually continuous impor...

Bolsonaro participated in an event at the Febraban yesterday, Lula will participate in a debate at the Fiesp today, and the TSE denied the Ministry of Defense access to documents from the 2014 and 2018 elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2022

The Febraban said that it does not like high interest rates, would like predictability and that it is willing to establish dialog, while President Jair Bolsonaro said he wants transparency in the voting process and criticized the PT. Today, former President Lula will participate in a debate at th...

Avoiding the Bermuda Triangle
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Aug 2022

The three legs of the governability triangle that the new government seems to be working on most intensely are: 1) politics 2) the economy, and 3) the so-called “Total Peace,” plus security force reform. On the political front, there is clear progress, with President Gustavo Petro stating that he...

Iranian satellite launched by Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

On August 9 the satellite was launched from a Kazakh space station that is run by Russia. It is suspected that this might help Russia to ameliorate its surveillance of Ukraine. The Soyuz rocket carried a Khayyam satellite that is Iranian made. It is now in orbit. Tehran has not criticized Russia ...

July consumer inflation at 2.3% mom, 13.7% yoy; the MNB has been vindicated
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

Local analysts, expecting 13% yoy for the headline CPI-inflation rate of July, apparently underestimated the upward potential. The MNB did better with its 13-14% yoy forecast range. Anyway, the figures look quite ugly. The leading driver was food, up 4.1% mom, 27% yoy, a very unseasonal phenomeno...

2Q GDP growth slows to 7.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today that GDP grew 7.4% year-on-year (yoy) in 2Q. The relatively high headline growth number continues to reflect base effects, i.e., impact of pandemic and lockdowns on last year’s GDP, and is roughly in line with the 7.5% median forecast of analysts...

Ukraine announces a unit of Russian defectors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

Kyiv is keen to let the media know that the Ukrainian Army has recruited Russian dissidents. Some of them are Prisoners of War who have been allowed to change sides. They are called the Freedom of Russia Legion. Some of them traveled to Ukraine via third countries. The number of soldiers in the F...

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