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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Private consumption sustains momentum through April and May
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Last week saw the release of aggregate supply and demand figures showing that private consumption increased 4.5% in the first quarter, a result congruent with the firm GDP growth reported for the same period (3.7%). Even greater increases were reported in consumption of durable and semi-durable g...

Politics: Opposition coalition party leaders poised to announce presidential candidate primary contest
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Following the success of massive demonstrations called by civil society groups last November and February in defense of the INE and democracy, the leaders of the PAN and PRI spent many months stonewalling calls by those same organizers and many others for them to throw open their presidential can...

Best moment of the Lula III government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2023

This will be a slow week in Congress. The National Monetary Council will discuss the inflation target. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is expected to conclude the judgment that could lead to the ineligibility of Jair Bolsonaro for future elections. Lula launches the 2023-2024 Crop Plan and may...

A slow week in Congress, state finance secretaries will meet to discuss the Tax Reform text, and the TSE may adjudicate the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro and render him ineligible for 8 years
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), the rapporteur for Tax Reform, presented his report on Thursday, June 22. Today, state finance secretaries will meet to discuss the text. Arthur Lira wants to vote on the proposal before the recess, which starts on July 18. On Tuesday, June 27, the Superior Elect...

The first nickel sulfate plant in the country commences operations
INDONESIA · Report · 26 Jun 2023

An Indonesian nickel company, PT Halmahera Persada Lygend, a joint venture between Harita Group of Indonesia and Ningbo Lygend of China, early this month commenced the operation of the world's largest nickel sulfate plant, in Obi Island, North Molluccas Province. This event marked the vertical ex...

A brief macro review: week of June 26, 2023
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Jun 2023

1. Recent economic indicators have been mixed, with manufacturing and exports expanding but PC demand weak. 2. Declining residential starts/completions will reduce supply and support some price pressure. 3. We still expect a rate-hold decision on July 10, but much will depend on shekel ...

Prigozhin agrees to stop his march and move to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

On June 24 the head of Wagner ended his ''march for justice'' and said he would leave Russia in return for charges against him being dropped. He said he made the deal to avoid bloodshed. The President of Belarus brokered the deal. Wagner was said by many media to have caused the most serious chal...

Fitch Ratings affirmed its BBB/Negative rating for Hungary on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

Even though Fitch changed its BBB rating outlook from Stable to Negative in January, mainly on deficiencies of structural policy, and it said a few weeks ago that it still saw downgrading risk for the country, no downgrade took place this time. As suggested by its report, Fitch Ratings was appare...

Groundhog day economics
TURKEY · Forecast · 25 Jun 2023 · 1 response

In this quarter’s installment of our forecast report, produced in an environment of “radical uncertainty”, both domestically and abroad, we once again deviate from the traditional format and share some tentative thoughts and numbers on how the macro might play out until the local elections of Mar...

Israel Weekly Macro Wrap Up 25.6.23
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

Politics: Although the political environment remains uncertain, the worst-case scenario of replacing the committee to appoint Supreme Court judges with a majority of coalition representatives no longer appears to be on the table. Last week, two new members were appointed to the committee from the...

Arrest warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2023

On June 24 Yevgeny Prigozhin the warrant was for allegedly inciting an armed rebellion. Military vehicles have been put onto the streets of Moscow and other cities. The guard has been doubled at strategic locations. A 2 am on June 24 Prigozhin said that Wagner Group had returned from Ukraine to R...

Last minute Kirchnerist backflip: UP tweeted that Massa runs as the only presidential candidate
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2023

In a surprising backflip, the ruling coalition “Unión por la Patria” (UP) announced yesterday night (June 23) through its official Twitter account, that Sergio Massa is going to be the only presidential candidate, accompanied by Augustín Rossi, current Chief of Cabinet, and close ally of Presiden...

Conference on rebuilding Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jun 2023

On June 21 the Ukraine Recovery Conference took place in London. The private sector is being looked to in order to rebuild the country after the war. The construction bill was estimated at USD 411 billion in March 2023. Rishi Sunak hosted the conference. Zelensky hosted by videolink. The UK will ...

Russia says Ukraine has hit a Crimean Bridge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

On June 23 Russia said Ukraine said British-supplied missiles. The parallel bridges were both damaged. Russia claimed that the United Kingdom ordered the attack. Russia posted footage of a hole in the bridge. The Russian-appointed Governor of Kherson said the bridge would be repaired soon. Chonga...

A light at the end of the tunnel of a poor international reputation: the possible exit from the FATF gray list
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

The Ministry of Economy and Finance announced today that the FATF-GAFI has approved an on-site visit to showcase the country's progress in implementing FATF recommendations. The country has achieved a "largely compliant" rating in all actions of the agreed plan with the FATF to address deficienci...

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