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The budget deficit remains moderate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2023

Minfin reported that in 7M23, the federal budget deficit reached R2.8 trln. It was slightly up from R2.6 trln in 1H23. In 4M23 and 5M23, the budget deficit was higher (over R3.0 trln) as this year, the government allocated budgetary expenditures spending in a rather unusual fashion, having spent ...

Politics and banking dominate Jamaica’s headlines as silly season begins early
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 08 Aug 2023

In Jamaica, the month of July before the normal August holidays was extremely busy, with the headlines dominated by news in politics. The kick off for the current political near-frenzy was actually the end of June, when an opinion poll released by the Opposition Peoples National Party (PNP) claim...

The House still has not voted on the new fiscal framework, the LDO also has not yet been put to a vote in Congress, and former Secretary of Public Security Anderson Torres testifies at the CPMI on the January 8 attacks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2023

Due to the lack of a decision in the House regarding the vote on the new fiscal framework, the federal government authorized the early inclusion of conditional expenses in the 2024 Budget in the Budgetary Guidelines Bill (PLDO). The LDO has not yet been put to a vote in Congress and is being disc...

Economics: Recurring incidents at installations, ratings downgrades underscore the continuing deterioration of Pemex
MEXICO · Report · 08 Aug 2023

Pemex has been the subject of considerable attention from national and international analysts and the news media due to a series of accidents and other events at its facilities and to decisions by Fitch to downgrade Pemex's debt and Moody's to lower its outlook on the company’s securities from st...

July inflation data matched analysts' median forecast exactly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2023

This means 0.3% mom, 17.6% yoy as for the headline rate (see our previous note on the subject yesterday). Positively, core inflation was only 0.2% mom, 17.5% yoy, so it is now slightly below the headline rate. Non-fuel inflation fell to 17.2% yoy, as fuel prices rose by 21.5% over the past twelve...

Israeli saving institutions continue to purchase FX
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Aug 2023

Israeli savings institutions continue to increase their FX exposure. In June institutions (total sector: pension, insurance, provident funds) increased their exposure to 19.9% of all assets under management from 19.2% last month (16.5% in Dec 22). They increased their exposure to foreign assets t...

Politics: The current administration’s overhaul of social policy has left many of the poorest households without coverage
MEXICO · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Everything indicates that economic growth rather than different social policy programs has been the main factor explaining poverty reduction in Mexican society over the past seven decades. The 6% average GDP growth of the "Mexican Miracle’s" period of stabilizing development from the 50s to the 7...

Ministerial team changes likely ahead and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

President Lula may make changes to the ministerial team this week. On Friday, August 11, he launches the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC). Before that, he will participate in the Amazon Summit, in Pará. Senator Eduardo Braga will be formally selected as the rapporteur for Tax Reform. On Thursday...

The Start of the Monetary Easing Cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Why did the COPOM decide to cut the SELIC rate by 0.5 percentage point, with five favorable votes against four votes for a decrease of only 0.25 p.p.? An initial interpretation is that the Central Bank yielded to political pressure from the government, which was indeed strong, and hence not only ...

Georgia bans export of US cars to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

On August 2 Georgia made the announcement. It had already banned the re-export of EU cars to Russia in July 2023. Georgia presumably fears secondary sanctions if it does not do this. From January to July 2023 Georgia sold 3,786 cars to Russia worth USD 52 million. The Russian elite prefers to dri...

Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Aug 2023

We report on the key data releases from the CCA region last week: * The Armenian central bank cut the policy rate as expected; further easing is on the cards. * July inflation in Armenia points to price pressures' reaching a bottom. * The Georgian central bank eases further; the ra...

President Lula may make changes to the ministerial team this week, Senator Eduardo Braga should be announced as the rapporteur for Tax Reform, and the president of the Central Bank will participate in a public hearing in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2023

Last week, President Lula stated that he may make changes to the ministerial team this week. The main objective is to include the PP and Republicanos in the team. The entry of the two parties could increase the government's support in Congress to 364 deputies and 59 senators—at least on paper. Th...

Rapid wage growth likely to keep inflation elevated
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Aug 2023

1. Wage growth has accelerated in recent months, posing an increasing inflation risk. 2. The shekel remains volatile, reacting to political developments surrounding the judicial overhaul. 3. The BoI sees the possible worsening of the macro environment as a higher risk to financial stability...

July inflation data to show a sharp decline of the yoy headline rate tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

KSH is set to release its July data for CPI-inflation tomorrow. There is no doubt at all that it will show a marked decrease of the yoy headline rate, because of a high base-period value: in July 2022, the monthly inflation rate was no less than 2.3%. In Portfolio.hu's usual analyst poll, the med...

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order? Maritime imports via courier, the so-called "door to door" imports, haven't been shut down yet. According to Bloomberg On Line news on July 4, 2023, the Venezuelan government intends to bring order to expedited imports via maritime courier ...

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