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Ukraine bombs Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2022

On July 3 explosions in Belgorod killed 3 people. 50 buildings were destroyed or damage. The city is 40 km from Ukraine. Ukraine has not claimed or denied being behind the attack. Russia claimed to have shot down 2 Ukrainian drones. Lysyschansk, Ukraine remains the vortex of the war. Russian forc...

Wall on Belarus-Polish Border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2022

On July 1 Poland announced it had completed the steel wall. The aim of the wall is to stop illegal immigrant crossing into Poland and therefore the EU. Belarus previously sent illegal immigrants to EU countries to punish them for sanctions. Th 186 km border is tense. Belarus is an ally of Poland....

Missile strike kills 21 civilians in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2022

On July 1 a missile hit an apartment block in Odessa Region. Russia denied being behind the attack. The missiles were launched from planes flying over the Black Sea.  Germany condemned the attacks as cruel. Zelensky said that the EU should admit Ukraine to full membership quickly. North Macedonia...

The South African bond market is once again under stress after a good start in 2022
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2022

As market volatility has intensified globally on the back of a myriad of headwinds including elevated inflation rates that have led to a normalizing of policy rates sooner and at more accelerated rates than markets initially anticipated, the South African bond market, too, is experiencing increas...

Russian auto industry imploding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2022

In May 2022 car production was down 97% YoY. That is according to the Russian statistical agency. Auto manufacturing declined at the beginning of the war but it has taken several months for the impact of sanctions to be felt. Sanctions means that Russia cannot access vital components. Moreover, a...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2022

* Russia has taken Severodonetsk after weeks of bombardment. * The EU gives Ukraine and Moldova candidate status. * Ukraine admits its situation is difficult as deaths mount. * Kazakhstan changed its constitution, stripping Nazarbayev of his title. * EU continues to tighten sanct...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ kicks the can, Saudi provides liquidity for banks, Tahnoun visits Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Jul 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ didn’t announce September allocations, and Macron worried about Saudi and UAE capacity. * US-Iran nuclear talks in Doha apparently made no progress but should reconvene in a few weeks. * Coronavirus infections have ...

Bulgaria expels 70 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2022

On June 30 Sofia expelled them for activity incompatible with diplomatic status. The Russian Ambassador has not been expelled despite her openly insulting the Bulgarian Government as ''Western lackeys.'' Moscow has reacted angrily. It has threatened to close its embassy in Bulgaria. Bad relations...

Russian sovereign debt: The market becomes local
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2022

International holders didn’t receive interest payments on two issues of Sovereign Eurobonds by the expiration of the grace period despite all the efforts of the Finance Ministry, and the event of default was finally observed. However, Russian authorities are trying to deliver payments to investor...

Webinar Replay: Peru – Castillo walks a tightrope as the economy struggles
PERU · Report · 01 Jul 2022

Will Castillo stay in government? How deep is the economic deceleration? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Alfredo Thorne discussing Peru's ongoing political crisis and its impact on the country's economic outlook.

A new increase in the monetary policy rate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jul 2022

Yesterday, the Central Bank decided an increase of 75 basic points in the monetary policy rate. The rate of the permanent facility for liquidity expansion (1-day Repos) increases from 7.00% to 7.75% per year and the interest-bearing deposit rate (Overnight) from 6.00% to 6.75% per year. This is t...

The Senate approved the PEC on Fuels, next week is the penultimate week of legislative activity, and former President Lula and Geraldo Alckmin will meet with Fiesp businessmen next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2022

To guarantee approval, the rapporteur of the PEC on Fuels, Senator Fernando Bezerra, had to make some compromises. Bezerra included a R$ 200 gasoline voucher per month for taxi drivers, at a cost of R$ 2 billion, and the allocation of R$ 500 million to the Alimenta Brasil program. Next week will ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Jul 2022

The ruble touched the R/$50 mark recently and encouraged the Ministry of Finance’s verbal interventions. The ministry now plans to discuss ways of “weakening” the exchange rate. One of the ways considered by the authorities could result in purchasing currencies of “friendly” countries on the open...

UAE: Dubai’s economy neared pre-Covid levels in Q1 but a new Covid wave is now underway
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2022

Dubai's Q1 GDP shows that the non-oil sector as a whole had nearly returned to 2019 levels, albeit this recovery was weaker than in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain because of Dubai's greater exposure to pandemic-hurt sectors such as transport and retail trade. The key tourism sector got off to a weak st...

Ocampo: a good pick, but faces colossal tasks
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 30 Jun 2022

President elect Gustavo Petro announced José Antonio Ocampo as his pick for Finance Minister. Ocampo, a Ph.D. from Yale and one of the best-known Colombian economists abroad, has published extensively on macroeconomic theory and policy, international financial issues, economic and social developm...

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